Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 21st February 2018

08:40am   My plan today is to be in front of my screens from time to time this morning watching for potential trade set-ups and after lunch it’s out for a game of golf. Any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets ended negatively on Tuesday with the Dow Jones breaking a 6-day bullish trend to close down by 254 points (-1.01%) as Walmart shares falling by over 10%,its worst one day performance for over 10 years. The S&P-500 also closed down but not as bad as the DJ30, it dropped 15.96 points (-0.58%) and both indices are now below their 50-day moving averages with the S&P-500 well on its way to the 2700 ‘big’ number. Later today we have the FOMC meeting minutes so traders will be waiting for any hints about future interest rate hikes before putting on their buying boots on once again.

The overnight Asian trading session was fairly ‘choppy’ but ultimately positive despite the pessimism in U.S. markets earlier in the day. The Japanese Nikkei-225 index closed up 45.71 points (+0.19%) to 21970, helped by manufacturing stocks although tech and auto companies ended slightly down. The Hong Kong stock exchange performed better and closed up by 1.66% with HSBC and China Construction Bank contributing the most gains.  Oil rices are falling this morning after a small rise in the value of the U.S. Dollar and an expected rise in U.S. crude production.  WTI Crude fell 73 cents to $61.52 by last nights close and is now at $61.03 and Brent is down by an equal amount and is looking at a bearish target of $62.00 by the look of price action on the Daily chart.

Gold fell $17.30 yesterday to $1329.50 on a rising U.S. Dollar and tonight’s FOMC minutes announcement will move this chart again although there should be some support at the 50-day moving average around $1320 so watch for some reaction here.

Trading Diary:

09:25am   Nothing much happening on my charts at the moment so off for a quick cycle ride.

12:30pm   Switching my screens off now and off to lunch – then out all afternoon, no trades to report from this morning’s session.  I will be back in front of my charts at the usual time tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 20th February 2018

08:50am   I am back from a short holiday and I am planning to be at home today catching up on emails and Skype calls and also watching my collection of favourite charts from time to time through the day. Any trades I find/take will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S equity markets where closed yesterday for President’s Day, European markets were negative on the whole and the overnight Asian market was quiet with low volumes across the region as China continues its New Year celebrations. This morning the U.S. futures markets are starting in a negative direction although here in Europe the French CAC-40 and German DAX-30 have began to look more bullish after a poor show at the start of the week as traders concentrate on earnings releases as there is a lack of economic news out today.

Oil markets are at an unusual point this week where the U.S. WTI Crude and global benchmark Brent Crude are going in different directions, contrary to their usual behaviour. Although Brent Crude is moving down from its 20-day moving average this morning, WTI has been given a boost due to reduced outflows from Canada. The Keystone Pipeline has been operating below capacity for the last few months due to previous leaks but was supposed to back to full flow by now, ongoing problems  are preventing this. WTI Crude rose 78 cents by the close last night to finish at $62.32 but is slightly down this morning at $62.09 although it may find some support at its 20-day moving average as the morning progresses.

Gold has had two consecutive negative sessions as Chinese buyers slowly disappear from the market and this morning it has fallen further from last night’s close at $1346.60, it is currently down another $9.40 but the price may also find some support at its 20-day moving average – I will send out a chart to subscribers soon.

Trading Diary:

09:25am    I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude 15-min chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.

10:35am    I have taken a quick +47 pip profit as the price has moved down quite quickly and I am also ready for my daily cycle ride.  Back in a few hours.

13:35pm    I am in a ‘long’ position now on my German DAX-30 15-min chart, it’s another Master-The-Trend Strategy-B patterns with an 11 pip stop loss.

14:55pm     The DAX price has been very volatile over the past hour as the U.S. markets open for Tuesday’s session so I have been watching the screen intently and I am now happy with the score so the position is now closed.  The trade ended at +66 pips, giving me +113 pips for the day – so time to switch off my screens for another day.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 13th February 2018

08:40am   Back in front of my charts for a limited time this morning after a long-weekend break although we are off on a last-minute holiday tonight so I will not be trading full-time again until next Tuesday. Any trades I take this morning will be detailed below in my Trading Diary. I will also be sending out today’s Trading-Idea soon to subscribers.

Market Update:

U.S. markets climbed yesterday after experiencing their worst weekly performance for over two years. The Dow Jones rose by over 400 points at the close last night (+1.70%) and both the Nasdaq and S&P-500 ended the session up over 1.4%.  Under performing stocks from last week such as Apple, Bank Of America and Amazon all rose well through Monday’s session which helped raise sentiment although all the U.S. indices are looking fairly overbought in futures trading this morning so we may see selective declines coming up.  Most traders I have spoken to on Wall Street are still seeing this as a minor correction rather than the start of a bear market although this “readjustment” has a while to go yet according to some large fund managers.

The overnight Asian trading session ended largely ahead by the close although trading volumes were lower than usual in China ahead of their new year celebrations at the end of the week. The Shanghai Composite was up by 1%, the Hang Seng finished at +1.54% and the Australian ASX-200 closed at +0.6. The only lage lose of the session was the Japanese Nikkei-225 index which finished down by 0.66% after a long weekend holiday.

Oil prices are stabilising slightly this morning after declining for four straight sessions in a row as global stock markets rise.  There is still the perception that U.S. oil stocks are too high for this time of year and the private American Petroleum Institute will release their stock level estimates later today, followed by the official U.S. Energy Information Administration announcement tomorrow. Brent Crude fell 51 cents to $62.63 by last night’s close and although it has traded higher during the Asian session the price is down to $62.57 at the moment and look to be heading for the minor support at $61.00.

Gold is looking fairly bullish as European indices get off to a shaky start this morning, it rose by $8.70 yesterday to close at $1323.10 last night and is $1328.85 at the moment and broken above its 20-day moving average which is an optimistic sign.

Trading Diary:

09:35am   Just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min S&P-500 chart, more details to follow.

09:45am   The above trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a higher than usual 40 pip stop loss.

10:10am    Nothing else is jumping out at me on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride with some trader friends.

11:40am    I am now out of my S&P position, it has just hit its first target of 40 pips and as I am off after lunchtime I thought I would close the trade now rather than letting it run over the U.S. trading session opening period.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 9th February 2018

08:50am   I am not planning any chart watching today as I have many odd-jobs around the house to catch-up on but I will be catching up on emails and sending out the odd chart to subscribers now and then. I will be back in front of my charts full-time next Tuesday after a 3-day break away in London. I hope you have a nice, relaxing weekend break as well.

Market Update:

European financial markets fell across the board on Thursday with the pan-European STOXX-600 closing down by 1.6%. The German DAX-30 was the largest faller at -2.6% with most of the falls coming late in the session after the U.S trading session got underway.  The UK Bank fo England held rates steady for another month, going against current thinking where higher rates are expected to counter rising wages and inflation.

As the day progressed traders became more pessimistic and the main U.S. indices also ended in negative territory, the Dow Jones 30 index ended down by 4.2% and has now wiped out all the gains from this year and is now 10% less than the record high it reached at the end of January. The S&P-500 fell slightly less (-3.8%)  and the tech-centred Nasdaq was down by 3.9% to 6777.16 as Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook all fell by nearly 5% apiece.  Traders are still concerned over higher interest rates affecting global corporate investment and profits plus many have seen the market rise too far too soon in the past few months so this fall is still being seen as a ‘correction’ at the moment.

The overnight Asian trading session took its lead once again from the U.S. and ended mainly down, the Chinese bourses were the biggest losers with the Shanghai Composite falling over 4%. The Chinese stock market is unique in that it is not made up predominantly of institutional investors as most others are around the world but private individuals using their own cash to buy and sell shares so in times of volatility we often see bigger moves as panic sets in.

Oil futures feel on Thursday for the 6th session in a row as U.S. crude stock (and production) hit record highs and Iran has announced its intention to raise output, against agreed guidance from OPEC.  U.S. WTI Crude finished down by $2.10 to $61.54 and is further down this morning at $60.47 with a possible support at the $60.00 ‘Big’ number.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 8th February 2018

08:35am   Planning a nice relaxing day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time so any trades I find (& take) will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets failed to follow through on the positive session on Tuesday and both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P-500 indices closed marginally down on the day. The S&P-500 was initially bullish at the start of the session but then reversed at its 50-day moving average and closed at 2681.66 down by 13.48 points (-0.50%) after a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield sparked concerns amongst traders once again.

The overnight Asian trading session finished fairly upbeat despite the lacklustre performance in the U.S. as Chinese Import/Export data for January came in ahead of expectations. The only major index to close in the red was the Shanghai Composite which wiped out earlier gains to close down by -1.42%. Gold is continuing its slide downwards as the U.S. Dollar strengthens, it closed $5.50 in the red last night at $1318.70 and is further down this morning at $1310.95, its next price target is the $1300 ‘Big’ number so watch for a reaction there if you are trading the commodity today.

Oil is also falling heavily after yesterday’s report that U.S. output is now above 10 million barrels per day which is somewhat undermining the efforts of OPEC members (and Russia) to curb production to help prop up the price.  Brent Crude fell $1.85 by last night’s close to finish Wednesday’s session at $65.33 and further short selling of futures contracts this  morning has driven the price down slightly more at $65.22 although there does seem to be some minor support around the $65.00 level.

Trading Diary:

10:05am  Nothing to report on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a run.

11:05am  There is a ‘short’ DAX-30 that’s just about to trigger on my 15-min chart but I am going to leave it as the stop loss is 52 pips, too large for that timeframe.

13:10pm    Another opportunity has come up on the German DAX-30 15-min chart and this time I’ve taken as the stop loss is a more reasonable. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 22 pip stop loss.

13:25pm   Well that was a quick trade !  Just been stopped out at -22 pips.

14:25pm   Just taken another trade on my 15min DAX-30 chart, a UTB price reversal pattern with a 25 pip stop loss.

16:15pm    I am now out of my 2nd DAX trade of the day, the price has come down very well and my score has ended up at +192 pips. I am finished for the day now, screens off with a total for the day of +170 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 7th February 2018

08:15am     My chart watching today is going to be fairly fragmented as I am out at meetings around midday but I will be in front of my charts for the next few hours and later this afternoon. Any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets experienced another volatile session after two days of declines, the Dow Jones 30 index was at various stages of the day down by 567 points and up by 601 points and it eventually closed 567.02 points ahead at 24,912.77.  It failed to stay over the significant 25,000 level by the close and in futures markets this morning it is sliding down and is at 24, 584 at the moment with the 4hr chart suggesting further bearish moves over the next few hours although most traders I have spoken to believe we have seen the bottom of the market as bargain hunters are emerging.  The S&P-500 index closed 1.7% higher at 2,695.14 and the Nasdaq was up by 2.1% at 7,115.88.

The overnight Asian session was mixed with most indices initially rallying on the back of the U.S. close although most then gave up their gains to end in negative territory. The Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng Index and South Korean Kospi all closed down on the day although the Japanese Nikkei-225 and Australian ASX-200 finished just ahead with technology and automakers contributing to the gains.  Wednesday’s European trading session is just getting going and so far it seems there is some optimism although volatility is still the watchword so anything could happen.

Gold also experienced a volatile session yesterday and traded in a near $26 range and eventually closed down by $5.40 at $1323.90 which was right on its 50-day moving average. Investors have taken this to be a minor support level and started buying into the safe-haven metal this morning and this has driven the price upto $1329.70. Oil price rose on Wednesday on a rising equity market and reports that U.S. crude stocks are going to decline this week, confirmation of this situation will come later today with the weekly Crude Oil Inventories report.

Trading Diary:

09:25am  I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart using the Master-The-Reversal  UTB set-up.  My stop loss is 33 pips which is higher than usual but ‘normal’ for this week !

10:25am   Just closed off my DAX-30 position at +41 pips. Two reasons – firstly my analysis this morning on my daily Trading-Guidance sheet showed a mainly ‘bearish’ trend for the DAX and secondly I am off out soon so I took a reasonable profit rather than leaving the position open during these volatile times.

10:45am   Screens off and away now until mid-afternoon.

14:35pm    Back home now and I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my UK FTSE-100 chart – details to follow.

14:50pm   The above trade is a Master-The-Reversal Strategy-B set-up on the 15min FTSE chart and the stop loss is 26 pips.  There was also a ‘long’ trade opportunity on the s&P-500 chart but due to the higher volatility the stop loss on that position would have round 80 pips so I have passed on that one.

16:20pm    The FTSE price seems to be getting slightly stuck at the 7300 level so I have closed my position, it’s achieved a 75 pip profit.  That’s all for today folks !

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 6th February 2018

08:25am   After a busy few days I am planning a quiet time at home today catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time – any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update

Obviously the main news this morning is the massive drops we have seen in equity markets over the past few days. It all started from inflation concerns after an encouraging U.S. jobs report on Friday coupled with solid wage growth which is pointing towards higher interest rates which in turn has a negative effect on company earnings. The Dow Jones ended Monday’s session 1,175 points down (-4.6%) after falling as much as 1600 earlier in the session and has now broken back through the 25,000 level and wiped all of the 2018 gains. The S&P-500 also fell considerably and had its largest one day fall since mid-2011, it was down -4.15 by last night’s close. The tech-centred Nasdaq index was not hit as hard and only lost 3.8% after Amazon and Apple shares rose. At the moment, traders putting this bout of selling down to a ‘correction’ but confirmation of this theory will take a few days to work out.

The global equity sell-off continued during the overnight Asian session with the Japanese Nikkei-225 coming in with the highest falls at nearly 5%, its largest one-day point fall since 1990. All other indices were down between 3% and 4.5% although small gains were seen just before the close as U.S. Futures rose slightly.  Tuesday’s European markets opened largely down although there has been small pockets of buying in the past 30 minutes – an interesting day ahead.

Gold, as expected, is benefiting from this volatility, it ended Monday’s session at $1339.50 up by $5.90 as traders pull money out of equities and search for alternative investments. It is slightly up again this morning at $1340.15.  Oil is suffering from the global equity sell-off over concerns about future demand and also the strengthening Dollar. When markets sell-off, investors will rush to saven haven currencies such as the U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen and as Oil is priced in U.S. Dollars this makes it more expensive to buy hence the fall in futures prices. Brent Crude closed last night at $66.88 down 93 cents but it has recovered slightly and is trading at $67.09.

Trading Diary:

10:35am   There’s nothing to trade at the moment so off for a cycle ride – although there is a possible long position coming up on the German DAX-30 chart but the 74 pip stop loss is too large for the 15-min timeframe, even though it is just reflecting the current volatility in equity markets.

11:45am  Just taken a ‘short’ position on my 30-min U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart. It’s a Master-The-Reversal UTB pattern with a 30 pip stop loss, a lot more reasonable than the previous opportunity (above)

12:25pm    I have taken a quick profit on my WTI position due to the current volatility across most charts. My score came in at +40 pips. Off out to lunch now.

14:15pm    I’m in a ‘short’ position on my 15-min GOLD chart, more details soon.

15:00pm    Details of the above trade: it is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 41 pip stop loss.  The risk is slightly higher than normal but not too out of the way to be considered on a day like today where the Dow Jones is in a 900 point range.

16:10pm    Now out of my GOLD position with a +69 pip profit.  Switching off my screens now, happy with the day’s score.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 2nd February 2018

08:55am  As it is Non Farms Payroll in the U.S. today I am staying away from the markets but I will be back in front of my charts on Monday morning.

Market Update:

European markets closed mainly in the red yesterday as trades digested worse than expected corporate results and a less than enthusiastic start to the U.S. trading session. Later on U.S. equity indices finished the day mixed with the Dow Jones 30 index closing 37 points higher at 26,186 even though it had been above the 26,300 level earlier in the session. The Nasdaq and S&P-500 indices eventually closed down even though the heavily weighted Facebook shares advanced to a record high after analysts predict stronger advertising growth. The S&P-500 is now showing signs of decline with the price falling towards the 2800 level which also coincides with the 20-day moving average.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mainly down after a subdued close in the U.S. with the Japanese Nikkei-225 resuming its slide downwards after a brief respite on Wednesday. Tech stocks had a hard time on Thursday and the South Korean Kospi Index fell as a result, Samsung Electronics contributed to a majority of the losses. The main Chinese index Shanghai Composite was a bright light in a sea of red and briefly ended a near week of declines to close up by 0.46%, energy stocks were buoyant but the financial sector took a tumble.

Oil markets were on the move up once again after a survey showed that there is strong compliance with the ongoing OPEC production cuts which Russia are also in agreement with. The UK Brent Crude futures were up by 77 cents on the day by last night to $69.63 and they did reach a high of $69.93 earlier this morning before falling back to the present $69.56 level.  Gold traders are adjusting their positions as always before the monthly U.S. jobs report and it has fallen $1.40 from its close at $1348.20 last night.   Better than expected job figures and lower unemployment normal signals a strong economy and this would normally strengthen the Dollar but put pressure gold so we could see further falls down to the 20-day moving average at $1333.00

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 1st February 2018

08:20am   After a busy few days, I am planning a quiet time at home today catching up on emails/Skype calls and doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will, as usual, be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Wednesday’s trading across the globe was slightly better than the beginning of the week with U.S. equities reversing the recent declines, the Dow Jones closed up 72.50 points at 26,149.39 posting its best month’s performance since March 2016 (up 5.6%). The fall at the beginning of the week was mainly put down to markets looking over extended but corporate earnings are still coming in ahead of expectations so we may yet see a record close for February as well.  The Federal reserve left its interest rate on hold after their statement last night but commented that they expect inflation to rise slightly towards the 2% target which hints at further rate hikes in the short term.

The overnight Asian trading session was fairly buoyant with most bourses closing ahead although the main Chinese index the Shanghai Composite closed down by -0.99% (34.59 points). There was a general sell-off of shares across the region at the beginning of the week and traders are now spending time looking for bargains which sent the majority of indices higher by the close this morning.  The Japanese Nikkei-225 index was the best performer, rising 1.68% as the U.S. Dollar firmed up against the Yen. European markets are also set to post a positive morning on the back of the optimism.

Oil markets reversed a two day decline yesterday and closed ahead on news that OPEC supply constraints are being kept across all members but to counter this it was revealed that U.S. oil production hit 10 million barrels per day for the first time in 50 years. UK Brent Crude, the global benchmark rose 98 cents to $68.83 by the close last night and is up further this morning at $68.90.  Gold has dipped slightly overnight on an expected rise in U.S. interest rates although it is still finding support at its 20-day moving average around $1330, currently sitting at $1339.60.

Trading Diary:

10:50am  It has been a fairly quiet morning so far on my collection of favourite charts but I did find a Master-The-Trend Strategy-set-up a few minutes ago and I am now in a ‘short’ position. It’s on my S&P-500 15-min chart with a 30 pip stop loss.

11:15am  My S&P position has just hit its first target so I am now out with +30 pips.

12:55pm   Out for run, no trades setting up at the moment.

14:40pm   Been invited out for a game of golf so switching off my screens for the day. It is Non Farm Payroll day tomorrow so taking a break from the markets, I will be back in front of the screens on Tuesday morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 31st January 2018

07:50am   Early start today as I am off to London after lunch but any trades I take this morning will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets closed mainly lower on Tuesday afternoon as miners and oil companies led the fall although car makers, telecoms and banks also saw declines of over 1% on the day as well. The U.S. trading session was also negative with the Dow Jones 30 index finishing down by 362.59 points (-1.37%) it’s largest one day decline by percentage since May 2017. The S&P-500 and Nasdaq also ended in negative territory although not as much as the Dow and worries over rising interest rates are on trader’s minds currently – the FOMC is meeting at the moment to decide on the U.S. base rate and an announcement will be made later today.

The overnight Asian trading session was slightly more positive although the Shanghai Composite and Nikkei-225 closed down and the Hang Seng, Kospi and Australian ASX-200 indices reversed earlier losses and showed some optimism at the close. Chinese factory output came in lower than expected and energy related stocks fell as Crude Oil continued to decline.  The fall in Crude Oil was attributed mainly to a rising inventory in the U.S. this week, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Futures fell 1% to $63.87 on the news but has risen to break the $64.00 level this morning. Expect more sudden moves later this afternoon when the weekly ‘official’ Crude Oil Inventories are out.

Gold values were up slightly this morning as the U.S. Dollar has started to decline, it reached a low of the week at $1334.30 yesterday but has now risen a touch to $1342.70 with a $1350 target in its sights.

Trading Diary:

11:05am   Nothing to report so far this morning trading-wise although I’ve not been watching my charts as we had a minor disaster a couple of hours ago when a cup of coffee was spilled across two laptops. The last few hours have been spent recovering work/software etc. onto other computers.

12:45pm   Nothing to see here !  I have been looking at my charts over the last 20 minutes on an off but still no opportunities so I am switching off my screens for the day.