Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 12th December 2017

08:00am   Back in front of my screens after a long weekend break, any trades I do take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Despite a terror-related incident in Time Square, New York yesterday morning, investors were still bullish and drove the S&P-500 and Dow Jones indices to record highs during Monday’s trading session. The S&P-500 closed at 2659.99 (+0.32%) after energy and tech stocks rose around 0.7% with a rise on Crude Oil helping the energy sector.  The overnight Asian trading session was not as optimistic however with the Hang Seng trading negatively for most of the night and closing down by 132.63 points at 28,832.66 although other major markets did manage to finish just in the black. Trading volumes were slightly down on normal levels as traders await the U.S. Fed’s decision on their interest rate later in the week.

Oil prices were given a boost yesterday and Brent rose 1.5% and hit its highest level since June 2015 after reports that the Forties pipeline needs work and is being closed down for around 3 weeks. WTI Crude jumped on the back of this news and closed at $58:00 last night, up 73 cents on the day.  Gold is slipping once again as money continues to pile into equities, the safe-haven commodity finished Monday’s session at $1241:80, down $5:80 on the day. The price is now well below its 200-day moving average and is now developing quite a strong bearish trend and I can see now credible support level until $1200.

Trading Diary:

 10:15am   I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my UK FTSE-100 chart, more details soon.

10:30am   The trade I’ve taken on the FTSE is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 21 pip stop loss.

10:50am    Now in another Master-The-Trend Strategy-A position, this time it’s on my UK Brent Crude Oil chart and my stop loss is slightly higher than my normal amount at 35 pips which reflects the way the price action is today after the Forties Pipeline news yesterday.

13:10pm   I’ve just closed my Brent Crude position, it seems to have reached a high now and my stop loss has been covered so I am happy with my +38 pip profit. Off for a late lunch now, keeping my FTSE trade stop loss at 21 pips as it hasn’t moved up much in the past few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 8th December 2017

09:25am  Late start today as there’s no trading for me due to 1) it’s Non Farm Payrolls once again and 2) it’s not often I watch my charts on a Friday as I prefer to start my weekend early.  I will be back in front of my charts next Tuesday after a long weekend break away.

My trading this week has produced +151 pips after 5 winning trades and 2 losers.

Market Update:

U.S. markets are looking bullish once again and the S&P-500 is on its way back to the record highs reached last week. All three major indices finished ahead last night and they’ve advanced more overnight in futures trading as news that the looming government shutdown has once again averted (for another month)  The tech-centred Nasdaq was the best performer of the three, advancing by 0.5% helped by good rises from Facebook and Amazon.

The overnight Asian trading session was buoyed by the optimism in the U.S. which gave it a good start and then Japanese GDP came in better than expected at +2.5% and Chinese data on trade came in higher than expectations as well. The best performer of the night was the Japanese Nikkei-225 which closed 313 points ahead at 22,811.08 (+1.39%)  Gold has fallen well below its 200-day moving average in the past few days and is also under the significant $1260 support level for the first time since August. There was a feeling of bargain hunting in the market last night as traders took advantage of the low price and this helped raise the price $5:80 during the Asian session to $1249:50 but trading in the last few hours has seen the price drop back down to $1245:80.

Crude oil prices are holding relatively steady and U.S. WTI Crude seems to have found limited support at $55:70 as the firmer U.S. Dollar is countered by increasing demand from China and hope that OPEC’s production limits are going to have the desired effect for members.  The U.S. benchmark was falling at the beginning of this week but reversed at the aforementioned $55:70 level and is now sitting at $57:05 after some enthusiastic buying in the futures markets this morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 7th December 2017

08:55am   I am in and out of the house for most of the day but I will be watching my charts inbetween times so any trades I find will be detailed below in my Trading Dairy

Market Update:

The U.S. S&P-500 index closed flat yesterday as most sectors were down on the day but were bolstered by tech stocks – Facebook rose by 2% after some analysts gave the stock an outperform status for 2018.  The Dow Jones-30 index faired slightly worse and finished the day down by nearly 40 points but die to the upbeat tech sector the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.21% to 6776.38.   A lacklustre finish in the U.S. will often spill over to the Asian trading session but this did not occur as most bourses finished positively, the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was the best performer at +1.45%.   Most Japanese sectors rose in moves seen by traders I’ve spoken to this morning as bargain hunting after large falls earlier in the week.

The oil price fell sharply yesterday even though the weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed a sharp decline in stocks, the number was down by 5.6 million barrels which is well below previous year’s levels at this time of year. This could not keep the value up however as soaring production is still weighing on price and U.S. WTI Crude fell $2.:47 yesterday to close last night at $55:95 and looks to be heading to the $55:00 support/resistance level by the end of the week.

Gold endured another bearish session yesterday and fell $3:50 by the close to finish the session at $1263:00 which is now well below its 200-day moving average.  The price is further down this morning at $1257:70 and I do not see any concrete support until $1253:00. Much of today’s movement will depend on the mood of equity traders and whether they having their buying boots on, the Daily S&P-500 chart is fairly oversold and is suggesting a small move up this morning.

Trading Dairy:

09:45am  Just taken a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 1-hr chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up and the stop loss is 36 pips.

10:30am   I am now out of the position at +36 pips. The price seems slightly volatile and fairly unpredictable so I am happy with a 1:1 risk reward on this occasion.

13:25pm    Just back from an early lunch and taken a short position on my Gold chart. More details soon.

14:00pm   This latest position is another Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up and the stop loss is 16 pips.

16:05pm    The price has been coming down very gradually over the last few hours but it’s time for me to finish my trading for the day so I have just closed off the position at +30 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 6th December 2017

08:30am  I am planning a quiet day at home today so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets were weaker yesterday as the S&P-500 closed down for the third session in a row which has not occurred since the middle of August.  Traders are starting to take some profits off the table as they wait for more concrete evidence that Trump’s tax reforms are actually going to materialise. Tech stocks were the best performers however with Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix all closing up on the day, bucking the general trend although all sectors are down this morning in futures trading.  The overnight Asian trading session has followed on from the U.S. weakness and also closed negatively across the board with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index fairing worst at -2.0%. Australian GDP figures for their economy came in below expectations which dragged down the ASX-200 and the Hang Seng was also lower by around 2% as well.

Gold had a negative session on Tuesday and fell $10:70 through the day to close at $1265:60 last night as a reaction to a rising U.S. Dollar and also funds being diverted into tech stocks.  It is now below its 200-day moving average which is a fairly bearish sign but watch for a small bounce back up today as bargain hunters come into the market.  Oil is suffering overnight as reports of a growing U.S. inventory emerge ahead of today’s official weekly Crude Inventories report, U.S. WTI Crude ended Tuesday’s session flat at $57:46 but is slightly lower this morning at $57:31.  Expect some volatility later today before price settles down, a move towards the 20-day moving average looks likely.

Trading Diary:

09:35am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my S&P-500 30-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 25 pip stop loss.

11:55am   I am also in a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil 30-min chart now, it’s another Master-The-Trend set-up but a Strategy-B pattern this time.  My stop loss is 29 pips.

12:20pm    My S&P position has just been stopped out at -25pips.  I am also watching my Brent position carefully as volume (and movement) will slow soon as we have the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories announcement in a few hours.

12:45pm  The Brent Crude price has dropped sufficiently to allow me to get a +29 pip profit, covering my stop loss which is an acceptable result I think considering the price action is starting to become slightly volatile now ahead of the Inventories Announcement.  Being out of the position also allows me a relaxing lunch out as well.

14:35pm    Just back from lunch and there’s a ‘long’ trade that has triggered on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart and as the price has not advanced much I have been able to enter at a very good level cutting my stop loss down to just 18 pips.  It’s another Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern.

16:05pm   The FTSE price has wandered slowly upto to the 7370 level where it seems to be unable to advance any further so I am now out of my position at a slightly lower level giving me a profit of +26 pips and an overall score for the day of +30 pips.

That’s it for today but I am planning to be back here in front of my screens tomorrow as usual.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 5th December 2017

08:50am   I am back in front of my charts today after a slight issue with delayed flights yesterday caused some disruption and meant my planned ‘working’ day did not occur.  Any trades I find today will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

European stocks had a generally upbeat start to the week’s trading yesterday with most bourses closing ahead with motor manufacturers having a particularly good session as they have a large exposure to the U.S. market where proposed tax reforms are getting closer to being approved.  These changes to the U.S. tax system are also behind a good showing in U.S. equity markets yesterday, the S&P-500 hit another record high at 2665.50 mid session but closed slightly down at 2639.54 last night (-0.11%) on tech sector declines although the narrower Dow Jones 30 index faired better with a score of +58.46.

The overnight Asian trading session closed with virtually all markets in negative territory as traders sensed weakness in U.S. markets and ongoing concerns with the North Korean situation as nobody seems to know what to do or make a first move against the rogue regime after new missile tests last week.  Oil prices have been moving down steadily over the last few weeks and U.S. WTI Crude is approaching the 20-day moving average at $57:00 today so we could see a small bullish reversal. There are rumours of a small decline this week in U.S. Crude Inventories which should help support the market temporarily but we will have to wait until tomorrow for confirmation. Traders I have spoken to this morning see support for WTI between $56:75 and $57:00 so look out for trading opportunities around those levels.

The Gold chart has been going sideways for a while now but has found some support at its 200-day moving average ($1269:70) and price seems to going back down to that level this morning so watch for a reaction (and trading opportunities) If there are further declines in equity markets later today we could see the price rising from the current level of $1275:30 towards $1282:50 (20-day moving average)

Trading Diary:

09:40am  The WTI Crude Oil chart is suggesting a small move down this morning if the price action is accurate and there could be a Master-The-Trend trade coming up soon.

09:55am    The price has moved down as expected and I am now in a ‘short’ Master-The-Trend Strategy-A position on my WTI Crude Oil chart.  My stop loss is 12 pips.

11:00am   My WTI position is still trundling along quite happily (+3 pips) and I am now off for a cycle ride as there’s nothing else to get excited about on any other of my ‘favourite’ charts.

13:55pm   Just got back from lunch and seen that my WTI Crude Oil position has been stopped out at -12 pips.  Glancing at my other charts I can see there could be a ‘short’ trade starting to set-up on my Gold chart – more news soon.

14:10pm    The Gold price has fallen sufficiently to trigger a ‘short’ trade and I am now in a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B position with a 25 pip stop loss.

15:35pm    The price has fallen quite dramatically in the past 30 minutes but is now showing signs of consolidating so I am out of my Gold position with a +67 pip profit, happy with my score for the day  (+55 pips)  so switching off my charts now.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 1st December 2017

08:50am   Unfortunately I am absent from my screens once again as I really need to get some renovation work to the house completed today but I am planning to be back in front of my charts on Monday morning.  My trading in November ended with a score of +542 pips, mainly made up of Master-The-Trend positions.

Market Update:

Once more I am reporting that U.S. equity markets have achieved record highs again with the Dow Jones 30 index closing up 331.67 at 24,272.35 on continuing hopes that the Senate is going to overhaul the tax code although the overnight futures market is discounting the possibility quite heavily and is currently sitting at 24,235, down by 37 point.  Last night’s Asian trading session kicked off in an upbeat mood due to the earlier optimism in the U.S. but closed mixed as traders took profits mid-session. The Australian ASX-200 rose above the 6,000 level for the first time as bank stocks rallied but like other indices, it did fall back in the last few hours of Friday’s session and closed at 5989.80 (+19.9)

Oil markets held steady yesterday as traders awaited any concrete resolutions from this week’s OPEC meeting and prices did rally overnight after OPEC members and other major producers agree to maintain the current production cuts until the end of 2018. U.S. WTI Crude closed flat at $57:39 last night but is up at $57:72 this morning with the prospect of further rises towards the $58:00 level today.

Gold suffered yesterday as equity markets rose although its 200-day moving average did provide support from where it staged a bullish price reversal his morning. You can expect price rising now to the 20-day moving average ($1283:00) before the close of the week’s trading.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 29th November 2017

08:20am   I really need to assist with house renovations so no trading for me today/tomorrow but if all goes well I should be back in front of my charts on Friday.

Market Update:

U.S. markets once again closed at record highs and yesterday was due to the Senate Budget Committee approving Trump’s tax reform plans which paves the way for the bill to progress further.  The Dow Jones 30 index rose by 255.93 by the close to finish at 23,836.71 (+1.09%) and the wider S&P-500 was up almost a similiar amount with financial stocks leading the bullish momentum.  The S&P-500 is sitting just above the 2625 resistance level this morning so watch for trading opportunities later once markets open for Wednesday’s session.

The overnight Asian trading session was fairly bullish as well on the back of the U.S. performance although there was a certain amount of selling during the night due to news that North Korea have launched another ballistic missile into the seas adjacent to Japan. Although there was a sudden market reaction after the announcement, it seems as though most traders shrugged off concerns and most indices closed in positive territory.  Gold often has an inverse relationship with equity markets but a weak Dollar has boosted the price despite higher indices so an expected large fall did not materialise although it is sititng around a long term support/resistance level at $1296 this morning so watch for trading opportunities.

Oil values are falling for the first time since the middle of the month and with the start of OPEC talks today there the prospect of market volatility for the rest of the week as news announcements will come randomly as decisions are made. There is some speculation that any agreement for production cuts between member countries and Russia is going to be tricky pin down and higher oil inventories in the U.S  this week is adding to the bearish pressure.  U.S. WTI Crude is down at $57:71 this morning after reaching a high of $59:01 on Friday.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 28th November 2017

09:25am   Late start to my day as I’ve been helping the builders with renovations already this morning but  I am planning a reasonably quiet day at home catching up on emails plus some chart watching every 30 minutes or so if the work going on outside allows. Any trades I take will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets closed mixed and largely unchanged with the S&P-500 index finishing down by just 0.04% and right on the significant 2600 level.  The price action on the daily chart is suggesting a small move down now from the 2606 high reached yesterday but watch today’s action for hints of concerted buying.  The Dow Jones had a better day however and did reach a record high (23,638.92) at one stage although it settled back to close at 23,580.78 (+22.79)  The overnight Asian trading session ended the day largely mixed as well following on from a lacklustre showing in the U.S. earlier and news from Japan that they have picked up radio signals suggesting that North Korea could be planning a ballistic missile launch within the next few weeks.

Oil markets are on alert as well with the likelihood of the U.S./Canadian Keystone Pipeline coming back on stream today or tomorrow which is going push up inventories and possibily push down prices.  There is also some doubt now whether Russia is going to join in with the OPEC-led production cuts for the rest of 2018, there’s a meeting on Thursday which will be keenly watched by traders. U.S. WTI Crude reached a high of $59:01 on Friday but has since slipped back and is currently trading at $57.52 with a potential target of $56.50 looking on the cards for later this week.

Gold is showing limited signs of bullishness and has been trading around the $1295 resistance level but is looking as though it could move back down towards its 20-day moving average at $1285 if equity markets rise through the rest of the week.

Trading Diary:

09:45am     Just popped indoors quickly and there looks like a possible ‘long’ set-up that’s developing on the UK FTSE-100 index.

10:10am    I am now in the above-mentioned trade, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern and my stop loss is just 10 pips.

10:45am   Now also in a ‘short’ position on my UK Brent Crude 15-min chart, it’s also a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern but my stop loss is slightly higher this time at 23 pips.

13:15pm    My Brent Crude trade has just been stopped out at 23 pips.

14:20pm    I am now out of my FTSE position as well now, the price has risen well but now looks to be consolidating, my final score for the trade is +32 pips giving me a total for the day of +9 pips.

I am going to switch off my charts now and get back outside in the fresh air to help the builders.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 27th November 2017

09:05am   Nice relaxed start to my trading week and  today I am planning a quiet day at home catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I find will be detailed below (as usual) in my Trading Dairy.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets finished the week on a high even though it was a short one due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday with the S&P-500 closing above the 2,600 level for the first time. Tech stocks were the biggest movers once again but retailer Macey’s shares rose the most through the day.  This morning S&P futures market is still managing to hang onto those gains and is currently sitting at 2602.10 with the 4hr chart suggesting some more gains.

The story in Europe was not so upbeat on Friday as markets closed mixed on political uncertainty and lower trading volumes due to the U.S. holiday on Thursday which seemed to carry on through Friday as well. There was concerns over issues in Ireland and Germany although the banking sector outperformed as looser rules on bad loan disposals are being mooed by EU regulators.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed with Chinese stocks down after the government there announced they were reducing import tariffs on nearly 200 consumer goods and despite solid Black Friday sales most tech companies suffered falls as well.  Oil values have had a good run-up once again on the back of expected global production cuts from OPEC members but as U.S. WTI Crude reached the significant $59.00 level late on in Friday’s session, traders began to book some profits and this has driven the price down to $58:59 this morning. There is rumours of increased U.S. shale production affecting the market this week so watch for official U.S. numbers later in the week.

Gold is rising in small increments on the back of Dollar weakness, it is currently sitting at $1291:50 although I can see a possible reversal point around $1294 in the next few days. Traders I have spoken to over the weekend are saying there is more of a focus on equities than Gold at the moment so do expect larger trading volumes and extended moves this week.

Trading Diary:

09:55am  It’s not always a good idea to jump straight into trades first thing on a Monday morning as the markets are trying to settle down into a new trading week but a ‘long’ signal has just popped up on my Gold 15-min chart so I have taken it although I’m not quite sure yet how long I will be in the position.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern and my stop loss is a very reasonable 14 pips.

12:05pm   Just back from a long cycle ride and my Gold trade is still trundling along quite happily, I’m going to watch it more closely now upto the U.S. trading session open to see if the price rises above $1295.

14:20pm   The Gold price has had a good run-up in the last hour but seems to be coming back down the 126.50 level. I am very happy with the profit achieved by my position so I am now out at +59 pips.  I am closing my charts now to get on with some pressing DIY jobs here at home but I will be back in front of my screens tomorrow morning.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 24th November 2017

08:50am   A day away from the screens today but I will be back here on Monday for a new week of trading.

Market Update:

European markets closed mixed yesterday with the French CAC-40 closing up by 0.5% but German and UK equity finished the day down on lower global volumes and lacklustre company news.  Volumes were down mainly due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and this may well continue to day as many Americans will be taking an extra days holiday today.  The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed with Chinese stocks steadying after a near 3% drop during the previous session, the Shanghai Composite has fallen 1.14% over the course of the last week and many traders are reporting a looming bear trend will emerge as the price has now fallen through a strong support line that was first established in May.

Crude oil continues to rise as the closure of the U.S./Canadian Keystone pipeline has put pressure on stocks, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude rose 47 cents during yesterday’s session to close last night at $58:51 and traders are also watching OPEC for signs that their production restriction for the rest of 2018 i going to materialise.

Gold is struggling to move higher at the moment and looks to be reversing at a well established trend line (email me for a chart) and any move higher is going to be dependent on equity markets falling as we approach the end of the month. It closed at $1290.09 last night, down $1.71 and trading at a broadly similiar level this morning although the daily chart is suggesting further moves down.