Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 20th July 2018

09:20am   I am having a day away from my charts today as we’re currently staying in a hotel in London for a few days.  Back trading next Tuesday.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets ended Thursday’s session with a negative outlook after President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s policy on gradually raising rates and banking stocks caused the main fall in the markets. The S&P-500 fell 0.40% to 2804.49 and the Dow Jones dropped slightly more in percentage terms and closed at 25,064.50.  This negative sentiment carried on through the night and the Asian trading session was equally as downbeat initially although many of the region’s bourses did recover early in the morning European time and by the end of the session only the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was in the red ( down 68.80 points at 22,697.44)

Oil price have risen slightly this morning after a broadly negative session on Thursday, Brent Crude closed down 39 cents last night to finish at $72.61 but as trading currently at $73.11 after bouncing off the $71.25 level on Wednesday.  There look to be some resistance coming up at the 20-day moving average ($74.00) so expect further bullish moves to be capped.  There are still concerns over market over supply and a slowdown in demand caused by the current U.S/China trade war which could trigger a negative economic outlook.

Gold is suffering at them moment as the U.S. Dollar is trading close to a one year high, it is getting close to the 2018 low of $1200 where it may find some support so watch for potential trading opportunities if it falls from its current $1223.17 level today.  The 1 hour and 4 hour charts are looking fairly overbought so there could be some falls in the next few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 19th July 2018

08:15am    Here at home until lunchtime so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.  See below for my first position of the day already.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. and Europe closed mainly higher on Wednesday with upbeat earnings eports being the main drivers of the current buying spree. The S&P-500 ended the day at a 5-month high (+0.22%) after banking stocks in general had a positive session although tech stocks had a more negative day and dragged the Nasdaq down to finish at 7854.43.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed after a good start that was prompted by U.S. equity markets closing higher. Chinese stocks have been declining all week and last night’s performance was no different with the Shanghai Composite falling by 0.54% although the Hang Seng did recover earlier losses to close flat at28,061.10.  Most other bourses in the region finished in negative territory although the Australian ASX-200 managed a +17.60 point gain on industrial and financial sector gains.

The oil markets were fairly volatile during Wednesday’s session with conflicting news hitting the headlines.  The weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed that U.S. stocks declined but companies in the sector are reporting that they are putting more product into the market so both WTI Crude and Brent were unpredictable through most of yesterday.  WTI Crude bounced off a minor support at $66.50 but looks as though it may revisit that level again today.

Trading Diary:

08:15am   I am in a ‘short’ position on my 15-min WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 23 pip stop loss.

11:00am   Just found out we are catching an earlier train to London so I have closed off my WTI position, it has managed +73 pips.  That’s it for today !

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 18th July 2018

08:35am     The plan for today is a quiet time here at home catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching from time to time – any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.   (see below for my 1st trade of the day)

Market Update:

Markets are generally looking quite upbeat at the moment with the Tech-centred Nasdaq experiencing another record close last night after Amazon shares reached a new high and Netflix rebounded from the previous session’s fall.  The Dow Jones and S&P-500 were both in a bullish mood for most of yesterday and closed ahead by 0.22% and 0.40% respectively.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed despite some optimism from traders following upbeat comments earlier in the day from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concerning the state of the U.S. economy.  Both Chinese markets closed in the red after a good start as did Malaysian and Korean bourses but the Australian ASX-200 and Japanese Nikkei-225 index managed to find buyers in the latter half of the session and finished up around 0.50%.

Oil markets continue to fall yesterday after the American Petroleum Institute released figures which they say confirms a rise in U.S. Crude Inventories rose last week despite officially recognised numbers not due for release until later today. Brent Crude fell 28 cents by the close last night to finish at $71.65 and is marginally down this morning by a few cents.  Gold prices finished at a one year low last night after Fed Chairman Powell said that the U.S. Central Bank is still on course to riase interest rates steadily through the rest of 2018 and the beginning of 2019.  It fell $12.50 during yesterday’s session to end at $1227.96 and is further down this morning at $1223.70

Trading Diary:

08:40am  I entered a ‘short’ GOLD position a while ago, details to follow in a minute.

08:45am    My GOLD trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 10 pip stop loss.

13:10pm    The GOLD price has not dropped as expected through this morning’s session so I have closed the position with a minimal  +16 pip profit ahead of the U.S. trading session open in a short while.  Off out for lunch now.

14:45pm   Back from lunch but the sun is shining so I shall be outdoors for the rest of the day.  I will send out today’s trading information email shortly together with a chart screenshot of my only trade of the day

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 17th July 2018

 

10:10am    Slightly later than usual as I’ve been out on a 25 cycle ride already this morning but I am planing another day in my home office catching up on emails and watching my charts from time to time, any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European equity markets closed mainly lower on the first trading session of the week as traders focused on earnings and the outcome of the Trump/Putin meeting in Helsinki.  Over in the U.S. the S&P-500 started the week with a negative outlook and failed to much headway all day despite some financial stocks powering ahead and it closed in the red by 2.88 points by last night although the narrower Dow Jones 30 index did manage to finish just ahead at 0.18%.  The banking sector as a whole was much more upbeat and ended 1.8% up mostly driven by good reported earning from Bank Of America and this optimism helped raise a few other companies in the sector.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly in the red with only the Japanese Nikkei-225 index closing in positive territory.  Energy shares were the main bearish driver of the night after the oil price declined 4% after the close of the U.S. markets and Chinese markets failed to make much headway after disappointing numbers on Monday. The drop in the oil price was originally started after previous supply problems in Libya were seen to be dissipating but in the past few hours the price is climbing over concerns that supply will be restricted from Norway as oil workers go on strike after unions try to secure better pay and pension provisions for the country’s workers.  Brent Crude closed last night at $71.93, down by $3.06 and the initial bullish move off the $71.50 support has failed to gain momentum and in the last few minutes the price is dropping once more – currently $71.82.

Trading Diary:

10:15am   Been out this morning on a bike ride so no trades to report for the first half of the morning.

12:40pm     No positions to report as yet, out for lunch now.

13:55pm     In a ‘short’position on my GOLD 15-min chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 27 pip stop loss.

14:50pm    Just taken a quick +73 pip profit from the GOLD position.  Happy with my score for the day so switching off all my screens now but will be back in the morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 16th July 2018

08:20am   I am getting back to a ‘normal’ working timetable today after a few weeks away so I’ll be in front of my screens watching my collection of favourite charts from time time as well as putting the final touches to my latest monthly instalment of the Trading-Education eBook – that will be available for download later this afternoon.

Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

World indices in general are upbeat and mostly closed ahead for last week after a period where the U.S./China trade war has taken centre stage. Most traders will be watching the upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin for clues as to market direction this week but earnings are also in focus especially in Europe.

The first Asian trading session of the week ended earlier today on a slightly negative note as Chinese second-quarter GDP growth figures came in largely as expected at 6.7% although this figure was lower than the previous quarter so traders were pessimistic on the whole. There is some perceived lightening of mood between China and the U.S. regarding their trade tariff ‘war’ so we could see gains in Asian stocks as the week progresses.

Oil markets are again slipping as increased production and supply seem on the cards for the rest of the month, last week’s movement in Brent Crude was mainly down although the price has found some support at the 20-week moving average so we could see some improvement by the end of July. Concerns over Libyan oil exports are growing less as normal port activities are resumed as the state oil company has now resumed production from one of its larger oil fields.

Gold has once again reversed around the $1237 support area and is looking bullish this morning due to a weaker Dollar and declining Asian stocks. There could be a move up to the minor support/resistance level at $1247 in the next few days so watch for trading opportunities.

Trading Diary:

09:20am    As is quite usual on a Monday morning the markets are still settling down after a few days holiday so there’s nothing to see at the moment on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a run.

12:30pm    Nothing to report so far today, off out for lunch now.

16:05pm    Been out of the house for most of the afternoon due to the lovely weather but indoors for a while and I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my 30-min GOLD chart. It’s Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with an 17 pip stop loss.

17:50pm  The GOLD price has eventually come down sufficiently for me to cover my stop loss so I am now out of my position with a +17 pip stop loss  -  back in front of my charts tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 27th June 2018

08:25am    I am planning another day here at home and I will be watching my collection of favourite charts for trade opportunities – any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary. I  am already in a ‘short’ position on my FTSE-100 chart – more details below.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. rebounded during Tuesday’s trading session after losses on Monday and the Dow Jones 30 and the S&P-500 both closed up around 0.20% by the close last night. Tech and energy stocks were amongst the biggest winners although prices rises are being capped due to confusion over trade tariffs.

The overnight Asian trading session did not share earlier optimism from traders and most indices in the region closed in negative territory as oil prices rose as supply concerns over possible sanctions for Iran are trumping an OPEC increase in production.

The U.S. are pressing allies to reduce their oil imports from Iran to zero by November as they put pressure on their government over the countries nuclear ambitions.  Brent Crude rose $1.76 yesterday to close at $76.48 and is trading around the same level this morning, the increase in production that Saudi Arabia has announced is having little effect on values at the moment.

Gold is approaching a long term support area at $1250 as the U.S. Dollar value firms up, and has now fallen below its 200-week moving average which adds further weight to this current move down.

Trading Diary:

08:30am    I entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart around 10 minutes ago, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.

10:15am   Out for a 20 mile cycle ride with neighbours so I have closed off my FTSE position at +36 pips.

12:55pm   Off out for lunch, nothing emerging on my collection of favourite charts.

14:10pm    Too sunny to be stuck indoors, back at my desk tomorrow.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 26th June 2018

08:35am   I am back after a short holiday and am planning a day at home catching up on emails plus doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European and U.S. equity markets were generally bearish at the start of this week’s trading as investors continue to worry about the effects of further trade tariffs in global trade. Virtually all the major European bourses ended in negative territory as unease continues to grip German, French and British markets during this period of Brexit negotiations and car manufacturers also suffered as the fallout from Trump’s aggressive stance on import duties continues to drag on. In the U.S., the Dow Jones 30 index fell 1.33% to close at 24,252.80 (-328.09 pips) and the S&P-50 was down marginally more percentage wise after reports emerged that President Trump is preparing further trade sanctions against China.

The overnight Asian trading session started sharply down after the U.S. markets closed negatively and although the was some recovery as bargain hunters emerged, most indices in the region failed to rise enough to put themselves ahead for the day.  The only exception was the Japanese Nikkei-225 index which was down as much as 200 points earlier in the session but ended just below 4 points in the black at the close.

Oil markets are grappling with both positive and negative news and are whipsawing between positive and negative numbers. Brent Crude had a largely positive day on Monday as supply concerns emanating from Libya with news emerging that the new regime in the country has handed over oil supply control to a new entity which is bound to cause problems in the short term. The worldwide global benchmark (Brent) rose 47 cents yesterday to close at $74.64 and slightly up this morning at $74.86 although a rise maybe be capped by the 20-day moving average at $75.30 so watch for trading opportunities.

Trading Diary:

14:05pm    It has been a quiet morning as far as trade opportunities go but I have just returned from a relaxing lunch out and spotted a ‘long’ set-up on my FTSE-100 chart (30-min timeframe).  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern so I am now in the position with a 30 pip stop loss.

15:35pm    While opening a position on my DAX-30 chart I have also noticed my FTSE position has been stopped out at -30 pips.  Anyway, the DAX trade is another  Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern but this time the stop loss is higher at 59 pips. The price is quite volatile so it shouldn’t be a long trade – either way !

16:00pm   The DAX price has just touched 12185 so giving me a +59 pip profit so in the interests of my daily profit I have closed the position off at that level.   My overall score for the day +29 pips, very happy with that.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 22nd June 2018

08:40am   I am going to be at my desk this morning catching up on email and doing some chart watching before leaving after lunch for a 5-day trip to Spain. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were in the doldrums again yesterday with the main equity indices closing in negative territory and the Dow Jones falling 196 points and experiencing its 8th day of continuous falls. The percentage fall for the  S&P-500 was slightly less as companies that are exposed to the Chinese market are seeing their stock price tumble as retaliatory measures are coming into force over President Trump’s trade spat with China.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed with Chinese bourses closing up but the rest of the region seeing negative results. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index finished up around +0.30% as traders went bargain hunting after large falls this week but the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was the largest faller of the session at -0.78% after Automakers saw heavy losses in their stock although the South Korean Kospi did manage to erase earlier losses to finish slightly up on the day (+0.83%)

Oil markets are awaiting results from the OPEC meeting in Vienna today where member Saudi Arabia and non-member Russia are in favour of raising output which will place a drag on the price of a barrel of crude.  Other members including Iran are opposing this so traders are eagerly awaiting any announcements that may come through as the day unfolds. Brent Crude fell $1.34 yesterday to close at $72.82 although it has made some recovery this morning and is now at $73.45 but there could be some limited resistance at the 20-day moving average around $74.25 – watch for trading opportunities here.

Trading Diary:

 10:25am      Just got back from a run and checked my charts, nothing to report at the moment.

11:30am   I am now in a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.

13:00pm    As it’s getting close to the U.S. trading session open I have brought my stop loss up to break even and I’ll keep a closer watch on the price action.

14:20pm    I need to leave in a minute so I have just closed off my S&P-500 position at +30 pips.  I will send out full details plus my daily “Nick’s Trades” email later tonight when we arrive at our destination.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 21st June 2018

08:05am   I am planning another quiet day at home today so any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

Wednesday’s European trading session ended on a largely positive note with most bourses showing a profit despite the U.S./China trade tensions showing no signs of dissipating and later in the day the U.S. markets closed mixed with the Dow Jones posting a small loss of -44.41 points but the S&P-500 finishing ahead by 4.73 points and the tech-centred Nasdaq experiencing another record high (+0.70%) after Facebook and Netflix had a bullish day’s trading.  S&P-500 futures are also looking bullish this morning, up around 6 points from last night’s close. The simmering trade tariff argument between China and the U.S. is still simmering so you can expect it will still have an ongoing effect on equity markets in the coming weeks although as mentioned previously, it could all be a negotiating tactic by businessman Trump so there are still surprises around the corner.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mainly ahead, mirroring the U.S. session as there was no new developments in the China/U.S. trade wars.  The Japanese Nikkei-225 index as the best performer of the session at +1.24% followed closely by the Australian ASX-200 (+1.06%) despite nearly all markets having a very slow start.  The  Gold price is still bearish despite a small lift this morning, it is sitting at 6-month lows at the moment and heading down to the $1200 support lvel fairly rapidly. It closed last night at $1268.81 and is currently at $1264.09.

Oil markets had a negative day with Brent Crude reversing at its 20-day moving average and ending the day down by 90 cents at $73.98 after Iran hinted that it would support an OPEC decision to increase the price of a barrel of oil. This move is seen as wider agreement by the oil cartel to slowly increase supply for the rest of 2018 which would allow the value of Brent Crude to fall further towards $70.00.

Trading Diary:

09:45am   I have taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a minuscule 8 pip stop loss.

11:40am   Bank of England interest rate decision soon so I will start to monitor the price movement more closely now.

11:50am  Bringing stop loss down to break even now in case of an adverse price move in ten minutes time.

12:40pm   The price has shot down after the Bank Of England decided to keep rates on hold but hinted at a rise in August and the bearish price momentum has cooled slightly so I have closed my position at +81 pips.  Out for lunch now.

15:10pm   Back from lunch and a cursory glance at my charts show no opportunities at the moment so they’re being switched off and I am retiring outside to the sun.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 20th June 2018

09:05am   Back to relative normality today as I am planning a quiet day at home catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were subject to a fierce pullback yesterday as concerns over an escalating trade war with China reared up once again. The Dow Jones index fell 287.26 points by the close last night (-1.15%) and the wider S&P-500 suffered slightly less at -0.40%.  Stocks that export to Asia were hardest hit but I do wonder whether these threats from Trump’s administration over trade tariffs against China are just negotiating tactics which we’ve seen before when he was conversing with North Korea regarding the recent summit for nuclear disarmament. Will traders and investors see through these games or will the markets still keep reacting to every tweet the President releases ? Only time will tell.

The overnight Asian trading session was broadly positive after early losses caused by the bearish U.S. markets. Many of the indices gained over 1% during the night including the Nikkei-225, ASX-200 and South Korean Kospi Index but Chinese markets only just finished in the black after earlier losses.  The Gold market continues to suffer and seems to be heading to the most recent low at $1235 which was reached at the end of 2017. The price fell $3.91 during Wednesday’s session to close at $1274.30 and is further down at $1272.20 at the moment.

Oil markets are on alert today as we have the weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report due out in a few hours and the Brent Crude price is hovering around the historical support/resistance line around $75.00 once again this morning after a fairly volatile few sessions.  Price is being supported by a likely announcement that there’s been a fall in Crude Inventories and also a loss of storage capacity in Libya – it’s going to be an interesting day for oil traders…

Trading Diary:

10:40am   I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude 30-min chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with  24 pip stop loss.

11:55am  Just got back home after a cycle ride and seen my Brent position has been stopped out at -24 pips.

12:05pm   I am now in a ‘short’ FTSE-100 position using the UTB pattern and 15 minute timeframe.  My stop loss this time is 10 pips.

12:40pm    Now out of the FTSE-100 position ahead of the U.S. trading session open in just under an hour. My score on this trade was +31 pips.

12:55pm   I’ve been invited out for a game of golf this afternoon so no more screen watching today, back here as usual early tomorrow morning.  Total score for the day +7 pips.