Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 21st June 2018

08:05am   I am planning another quiet day at home today so any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

Wednesday’s European trading session ended on a largely positive note with most bourses showing a profit despite the U.S./China trade tensions showing no signs of dissipating and later in the day the U.S. markets closed mixed with the Dow Jones posting a small loss of -44.41 points but the S&P-500 finishing ahead by 4.73 points and the tech-centred Nasdaq experiencing another record high (+0.70%) after Facebook and Netflix had a bullish day’s trading.  S&P-500 futures are also looking bullish this morning, up around 6 points from last night’s close. The simmering trade tariff argument between China and the U.S. is still simmering so you can expect it will still have an ongoing effect on equity markets in the coming weeks although as mentioned previously, it could all be a negotiating tactic by businessman Trump so there are still surprises around the corner.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mainly ahead, mirroring the U.S. session as there was no new developments in the China/U.S. trade wars.  The Japanese Nikkei-225 index as the best performer of the session at +1.24% followed closely by the Australian ASX-200 (+1.06%) despite nearly all markets having a very slow start.  The  Gold price is still bearish despite a small lift this morning, it is sitting at 6-month lows at the moment and heading down to the $1200 support lvel fairly rapidly. It closed last night at $1268.81 and is currently at $1264.09.

Oil markets had a negative day with Brent Crude reversing at its 20-day moving average and ending the day down by 90 cents at $73.98 after Iran hinted that it would support an OPEC decision to increase the price of a barrel of oil. This move is seen as wider agreement by the oil cartel to slowly increase supply for the rest of 2018 which would allow the value of Brent Crude to fall further towards $70.00.

Trading Diary:

09:45am   I have taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a minuscule 8 pip stop loss.

11:40am   Bank of England interest rate decision soon so I will start to monitor the price movement more closely now.

11:50am  Bringing stop loss down to break even now in case of an adverse price move in ten minutes time.

12:40pm   The price has shot down after the Bank Of England decided to keep rates on hold but hinted at a rise in August and the bearish price momentum has cooled slightly so I have closed my position at +81 pips.  Out for lunch now.

15:10pm   Back from lunch and a cursory glance at my charts show no opportunities at the moment so they’re being switched off and I am retiring outside to the sun.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 20th June 2018

09:05am   Back to relative normality today as I am planning a quiet day at home catching up on emails and Skype calls plus some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were subject to a fierce pullback yesterday as concerns over an escalating trade war with China reared up once again. The Dow Jones index fell 287.26 points by the close last night (-1.15%) and the wider S&P-500 suffered slightly less at -0.40%.  Stocks that export to Asia were hardest hit but I do wonder whether these threats from Trump’s administration over trade tariffs against China are just negotiating tactics which we’ve seen before when he was conversing with North Korea regarding the recent summit for nuclear disarmament. Will traders and investors see through these games or will the markets still keep reacting to every tweet the President releases ? Only time will tell.

The overnight Asian trading session was broadly positive after early losses caused by the bearish U.S. markets. Many of the indices gained over 1% during the night including the Nikkei-225, ASX-200 and South Korean Kospi Index but Chinese markets only just finished in the black after earlier losses.  The Gold market continues to suffer and seems to be heading to the most recent low at $1235 which was reached at the end of 2017. The price fell $3.91 during Wednesday’s session to close at $1274.30 and is further down at $1272.20 at the moment.

Oil markets are on alert today as we have the weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventories report due out in a few hours and the Brent Crude price is hovering around the historical support/resistance line around $75.00 once again this morning after a fairly volatile few sessions.  Price is being supported by a likely announcement that there’s been a fall in Crude Inventories and also a loss of storage capacity in Libya – it’s going to be an interesting day for oil traders…

Trading Diary:

10:40am   I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude 30-min chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with  24 pip stop loss.

11:55am  Just got back home after a cycle ride and seen my Brent position has been stopped out at -24 pips.

12:05pm   I am now in a ‘short’ FTSE-100 position using the UTB pattern and 15 minute timeframe.  My stop loss this time is 10 pips.

12:40pm    Now out of the FTSE-100 position ahead of the U.S. trading session open in just under an hour. My score on this trade was +31 pips.

12:55pm   I’ve been invited out for a game of golf this afternoon so no more screen watching today, back here as usual early tomorrow morning.  Total score for the day +7 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 14th June 2018

08:20am  Another quiet day planned here at home, catching upon emails and doing some chart watching. Any trades I take will be detailed below as usual, in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets had a mostly negative session on Wednesday as traders sold stocks during the day in anticipation of a Fed rate rise. The announcement late in the session confirmed what the market had priced in anyway but the Federal Reserve also hinted at two more hikes before the end of the year- they raised the rate 0.25% to 2% and the expectation is for 2.5% by December. The S&P-500 dropped 11.22 points to 2,775.63 by the close (-0.40%) and the Dow Jones 30 was down a comparable amount.  Earlier in the day, European markets closed mainly up as traders took the expected rate hike in their stride although this morning’s moves are overall bearish in the first 30 minutes although a quieter morning is expected as the European Central Bank announces its rate decision at lunchtime.

The overnight Asian trading session was bearish overall as traders digested how the Fed rate move would impact companies in the region.  The largest faller of the session was the South Korean Kospi which dropped 1.84% to 2423.48 with Hyundai Motors dragging the index down the most with Samsung also in the red by the close.  Chinese Industrial Production numbers were released today and they came in lower than expected at 6.8% and this contributed to losses in the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite.

Oil markets are being dragged down after U.S. Crude Oil Inventory figures showed an increase in output, Brent Crud was down 28 cents at Wednesday’s close to $76.46 and has slipped a few more cents  this morning. U.S. Crude output has increased by 28% over the last 24 months and is currently standing at 10.91 million barrels per day which is almost as much as Russia’s output.

Trading Diary:

09:50am   I have just taken a ‘long’position on my 15-min GOLD chart using the Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up. My stop loss is 12 pips.

11:25am    Just taken a quick 26 pip profit from my GOLD position, off out for a ride now with some fellow cyclists.

14:55pm     I am back home now and have taken a ‘long’ position on my FTSE-100 15-min chart, another Master-The-Trend pattern but this time it’s Strategy-B.  The stop loss is a reasonable 18 pips and although the index is quite extended this afternoon it should reach at least a 20 pip profit if you look at the Daily timeframe.

15:30pm    I’ve taken a quick profit from my FTSE position (+25 pips) and very happy with today’s overall score of +51 pips.  Switching off my screens for the day, not sure if I will be back in my study tomorrow watching the charts, I’ll make a decision in the morning depending on the weather !

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 13th June 2018

09:55am   Slightly later than normal start to my chart watching this morning as I have been out for an early morning cycle ride. My plan is to be at home for most of the day so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets ended mixed as traders start to adjust their positions ahead of today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Dow Jones Index closed just 1.58 points down at 25,320.73 whereas the wider S&P-500 was up by 4.85 points at 2,786.85 as markets closed and this morning there is no real buying momentum, the price is still around the same level. A quarter point rate rise is already largely priced into the market, so markets should not fall by much although there will be some volatility as the announcement is made at 7:00pm UK time.

The overnight Asian markets closed mainly lower as traders took their concentration away from the U.S./North Korean summit and onto the looming U.S. rate decision. The only main index that finished ahead was the Japanese Nikkei-225 which closed up 88.03 points at 22,966.38 with shipmakers, property companies and car manufacturers leading the move up. Markets in Indonesia and South Korea where closed for a national holiday.

Oil markets are declining on concerns over greater supply in the coming months. Brent Crude fell $1.08 during Tuesday’s trading session to close at $75.32 and is largely at the same level this morning and looks to be going down to the 50-day moving average at $74.70 where we may see a price reaction/reversal.  The Gold chart is still looking fairly bearish and is still seeing resistance from the 20-day moving average, it fell $3.80 yesterday to close at $1295.53 and it has slipped further this morning. Gold traders are waiting for the FOMC statement later today with the interest rate decision to see if there are clues for future rate adjustments.

Trading Diary:

11:10am   The markets in general have been quite volatile this morning with no real direction but the UK FTSE-100 has broken out to the upside and triggered a ‘long’ Master-The-Trend trade. I am in the trade myself with a stop loss of 13 pips, it’s a Strategy-B pattern.

11:55am   I have just taken a quick +24 pip profit from my FTSE position as I am off out of the house for a few hours – happy with the score of +24 pips.

14:20pm    Back home and just had quick look at my collection of favourite charts and there’s nothing much to get excited about as the U.S. trading session gets going and traders await the weekly oil inventories number and the FOMC rate decision so I am bowing out gracefully with my small profit. I shall be back at the same time tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 12th June 2018

08:05am  After what seems like a few months away from trading (in reality just a few weeks) I am now back to a ‘normal’ daily timetable which includes some chart watching and catching up on emails and Skype calls. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

The markets today will be largely driven by the outcome of events in Singapore between President Trump and North Korean leading Kim Jon-un and Monday’s U.S. trading session was largely positive on hopes of a successful summit which has proven to be correct if preliminary reports are to be believed.  The Dow Jones finished yesterday’s session up 5.78 points at 25,322.31 9+0.02%) and in Tuesday’s futures market is up slightly at 25,354.40 and the S&P-500 is up a similiar amount.

The overnight Asian trading session was higher overall at the close with the Chinese Shanghai Composite up the highest of the major bourses at +0.89% as a successful U.S./North Korean summit came to a close. Surprisingly the South Korean Kospi index had a volatile session and fluctuated between losses and gains all day but finally closed marginally down by 0.05%.  Gold also had a choppy ride throughout Monday and eventually close marginally up by 72 cents at $1299.33 having failed to stay above the significant $1300 level and this morning it is down at $1298.11, slipping below the 20-day moving average once again where the seems to be solid resistance over the past three weeks.

Oil markets are up this morning in line with equities as optimism over the U.S./North Korean summit abounds, Brent Crude ended largely flat on Monday at $76.27 but is trading at $76.68 at the moment.  Trading volumes are lower than usual currently as traders await the outcome of an OPEC meeting in a few week’s time when production levels will once again be in the spotlight.

Trading Diary:

 10:45am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 chart (15-min timeframe).  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 23 pip stop loss.

11:00am   Nothing much else occurring on my collection of favourite charts currently so I am off for a cycle ride for the next hour or so.

12:45pm  I have now entered another ‘short’ position on my 15-min DAX-30 chart, this time it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up and my stop loss is just 13 pips.  I hardly ever ‘double-up’ on a position but the new signal was confirming the earlier direction towards the 12,810 region so it confirmed my original idea of a bearish move.

13:25pm    Out of both positions with minimal profit before equities here in Europe start to react to the U.S. trading session start.  My first position has managed a +23 pip profit and the second one has come in at +27 pips. Late lunch time now, back home in an hour or so.

15:30pm   Back  home from lunch and a quick scan of my charts shows no current opportunities so I am switching my charts off for the day – back here tomorrow. Happy with my +50 pip profit.

Trading Diary ~ Friday 25th May 2018

I am away later this morning for a 10-day holiday so I will back in front of my charts and reporting my trades again on Tuesday 5th June 2018.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 24th May 2018

08:25am   Normal service is being resumed today after some issues with the building work here at home yesterday which ended up with all our electric off for 18 hours.  My plan is to be around the house for most of the day so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets on Wednesday ticked lower after a sell-off in Italian Government Bonds which was prompted by concerns that an anti-establishment government would be formed in the country and also the monthly Eurozone consumer confidence survey fell again hinting at tough times to come for companies in the area.  Later in the day, the U.S. markets closed marginally up after a largely negative session after the Fed said they would be agreeable to letting inflation run ahead of their target in the short term. Stocks were down earlier in the day on worries over the U.S./China trade talks collapsing but at finish the Dow Jones was up +0.21% and the S&P-500 was ahead by +0.32%.

The overnight Asian trading session had a negative slant for most of the night as traders concentrated on news that President Trump had ordered a probe regarding car imports into the U.S. so Japanese and South Korean automakers were hit hard – the Japanese Nikkei-225 index fell 252 points by the close although the Hang Seng index and ASX-200 did manage to reverse earlier losses and finish in positive territory.

Oil markets were volatile on Wednesday following the weekly U.S. inventories number but ultimately close slightly up but there is some selling this morning as OPEC is expected to recommend to its members that they increase production in the short term to compensate for a reduced supply from Venezuela and Iran. WTI Crude closed last night at $79.72, up by a mere 13 cents but is down at $79.48 this morning.

Gold price are still in the doldrums after falling virtually constantly since the beginning of April and reaching a low of $1282 on Monday.  The price has tried to advance but is failing to make much headway although the Fed’s stance on inflation has given traders an excuse to start buying and it has risen $2.41 this morning and is currently sitting at $1296.47. This level is just at the 20-day moving average so watch for trading opportunities if the price starts to reverse.

Trading Diary:

11:50pm   Due to fairly volatile price action on a lot of my usual charts this morning, I have had no trades up until now – I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil 15-min chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a “massive” 9 pip stop loss.

12:20pm    Out for lunch and as the trade has done well, I’ve brought my stop loss up to +10 pips but left the target open.

14:25pm   Just got back home and seen my WTI trade was at +76 pips so I’ve closed it now. That will probably do me for the day.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 22nd May 2018

08:25am   Back home after a short break away and I am planning a quiet(ish) day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – any trades I take will be detailed below as usual in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets yesterday ended mostly higher although many were on holiday – the UK and French indices were marginally up on the day with the Italian MIB-30 down and German and most other markets closed for a bank holiday. Monday’s U.S. trading session closed ahead with the Dow Jones 30 index finishing above the significant 25,000 level for the first time since March on hopes that the U.S./China trade war will dissipate, it is officially ‘On-Hold’ at the moment while the two sides come to the table and try to sort out some compromise.  The Dow Jones gained 298.20 to close at 25,013.29 and the wider S&P-500 was ahead by 0.7% at 2,733.01.

The overnight Asian trading session was not as impressed by the suspension of the trade tariff war between the world’s two largest trading countries and indices in the region closed mixed although many staged a late revival after a negative start. The Shanghai Composite reversed earlier losses to finish up by 0.02% but its Hong Kong counterpart closed ahead by 0.60%.  The Japanese Nikkei-225 and Australian ASX-200 were the main losers of the session with most sectors struggling despite record oil prices helping energy companies.

Oil markets are on the move upwards once again this morning after another positive session on Monday – there are growing concerns over Venezuela’s crude output after a disputed Presidential election may prompt U.S. sanctions on the industry.  U.S. WTI Crude rose $1.19 during Monday’s session to close at $72.60, another multi-year high and it is holding steady at that level this morning.

Gold is failing to make much headway from the $1285 support level that it has stuck around for the last week or so although it had a mildly positive session yesterday when it rose $2.60 to close at $1293.13 but it is down this morning ($1291.85 currently) as U.S./China trade wars subside and money is being moved across to more riskier assets.

Trading Diary:

10:15am    A few minutes ago I took a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart, it is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 20 pip stop loss.

11:25am   I have just been invited out for a cycle ride and as there’s nothing very exciting happening on my collection of usual charts I am off for an hour or so. I am keeping my DAX trade’s stop loss at 20 pips but leaving the target open as the price is moving quite slowly at the moment.

14:00pm  Back from a longer than originally planned cycle ride and I’ve seen my DAX trade was stopped out quite a while ago, score is -20 pips.

14:50pm    I have now taken a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 15-min chart, the pattern is the Master-The-Reversal UTB set-up and my stop loss is 17 pips.

15:15pm    Out of my GOLD position with a +20 pip profit.

15:30pm     The sun outside is beckoning so I have switched off my charts and finished trading for the day.  I will be back early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 18th May 2018

08:20am   Quiet day planned here at home and no doubt there will be some chart watching from time time despite having weekend visitors arriving early. Any trades I take will be detailed as usual in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Although European equity markets ended the session bullishly yesterday the U.S. markets did reverse some early optimism to finish the day in negative territory as the second round of trade talks between China and the U.S. is not expected to be that fruitful according to President Trump. The Dow Jones closed down 54.95 points (-0.22%) and the S&P-500 and Nasdaq also finishing in the red but not by as much.

The overnight Asian session was dominated by U.S./China trade talks ad there does seem to be some renewed optimism regarding the negotiations so indies in the region mostly closed higher despite a muted start. The main loser of the session was the Australian ASX-200 which closed down by -0.11% where the materials and finance sectors dragged the market downwards despite healthcare and energy stocks being heavily bought.

Oil markets continue to perform well although many traders see the $80 level in Brent Crude as a high level this month, the price touched this minor resistance level early in the U.S. session yesterday before retreating back under the weight of sell orders but we may well see another attempt today.  OPEC are still holding tight with their supply restrictions and traders also have one eye on looming Iranian sanctions which will also limit production into the world market.

Trading Diary:

08:45am     Nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts at this early stage of the European trading session so off for a cycle ride.

10:10am    Just taken a ‘short’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 12 pip stop loss.

11:15am   I’ve got back indoors and just noticed my S&P-500 position has been stopped out at -12 pips.

14:05pm     I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude 15-min chart, the pattern I have used is the UTB  Price-reversal set-up and the stop loss is 15 pips.

14:30pm   Out of the Brent trade with a quick +32 pip profit – markets moving very quickly this afternoon.

14:45pm   Switching off my charts now as I’ve been invited out for a game of golf but back around 6pm to send out some emails to customers with details of my trades today.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 17th May 2018

10:00am   After being out for most of yesterday, I am planning to be indoors in my home office catching up on emails and doing some chart watching today so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Yesterday’s equity markets in Europe and the U.S. were generally bullish on the back of encouraging performances in the retail sector including UK company Ocado which has just announced a major deal with U.S. grocer Kroger. The Dow Jones 30 closed up by 62 points with Macy’s and Nike helping boost the performance of the index and the S&P-500 and Nasdaq indices also closed ahead after a negative start.

The overnight Asian trading session was mixed at best with traders concentrating on U.S./China trade talks and the upcoming meeting between North Korea and the U.S.  Most of the major markets in the region were down this morning at the close although the Japanese Nikkei-225 index finished narrowly in the black (+0.53%) after disappointing Core Machinery Orders numbers announced earlier in the session.

Oil markets are holding firm after a good run up, many traders are expecting Brent Crude to fall now from the high achieved this week ($79.35) but already this morning there are optimistic signs that the UK benchmark will get to $80 before the close of the week’s trading.  Morgan Stanley has raised its price forecast for the next 2 years to $90 per barrel and this is partly fuelling the buying of futures contracts.

Trading Diary:

10:40am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 15-min chart, it is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 12 pip stop loss.

11:35am   Just taken a quick +24 pip profit from my GOLD position as I have been invited out for an early lunch.

14:05pm   Back home now and taken a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 30-min chart using one of the simpler Master-The-Trend patterns. My stop loss is 32 pips.

14:35pm    As is usual at this time of the day, there is a fair amount of price volatility and the DAX chart’s movement is no exception so I have taken a minimal profit and come out of my position with a +32 pip profit.

16:00pm   I am back home after a run and now I’ve glanced at my collection of favourite charts and there’s nothing much happening so I am closing the screens now. Back tomorrow morning.