Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 19th October 2017

09:30am   Nice relaxed start to my trading day after a very late night and I am planning to be at home now for the rest of the day and any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets were higher yesterday as third quarter earnings came in higher than expected and last night’s U.S. market close was also bullish with he Dow Jones 30 index closing above the 23,000 level for the first time ever after a rise of 160 points which was helped by IBM  after they released quarterly results that came in higher than expected.  This optimism did not carry through to the overnight Asian trading session even though the wealth of Chinese economic data released through the session came in widely as expected, the Hang Seng ended the day as the largest loser with a fall of 1.32% due to a large amount of selling right at the end of today’s session.

Oil markets are being driven by some fairly upbeat news at the moment, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude had a positive European session yesterday as the stock situation in the U.S.  continues to tighten and the market believes that OPEC production cuts will be extended further into 2018.  Technical traders have struggled to see any upside above the $52:25 level though and this is causing some selling this morning and WTI is coming down from that level and is currently sitting at $51:40 after finishing at $52:00 last night.

Gold is continuing to suffer as traders and investors continue to pour money into equities although we could see a small rise as profits are taken out of the U.S. indices following the rise to record levels. The yellow metal reversed once again at the $1277 level last night and has risen sharply this morning to $1283.60 with further bullish moves predicted by many traders.

Trading Diary:

11:00am  Just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min FTSE-1oo chart, my stop loss is 8 pips.  It’s yet another Master-The-Trend set-up, this time a Strategy-A patetrn.

12:10pm  Out for a cycle ride in a minute so closed my FTSE position, I will send out exact details and chart screenshot as usual to customers as soon as I get back. Score +22 pips.

14:15pm   Back home now and nothing much happening on my collection of favourite charts so I am switching the screens off for the day, happy with my score so far.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 18th October 2017

08:40am   My plans for the day involve some chart watching, Skype calls and emails. Any trades I do find will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets are on the march once again and the Dow Jones 30 index hit another record during Tuesday’s trading session. For a brief period the index went above the 23,000 level before settling at 22.997.44 at the close (+0.18%) with Boeing, Caterpillar, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot contributing the most to the bullish momentum over the last few months. Some Wall Street traders are calling a top at this level so keep a line drawn at this level if you do trade the index.  The S&P index of top 500 U.S. companies is also at record levels, it closed just short of 2560 last night but is slightly down this morning in futures trading at 2559.30.

The overnight Asian trading session was largely flat as traders watched for signs of future Chinese government policy at their 19th Party Congress meeting.  The country has the second largest economy in the world so any clues regarding future economic policy will be carefully analysed by traders around the world. In the end, President Xi Jinping spoke for over 3 hours but did not excite the watching media with anything concrete although he did reiterate his stance on economic reforms and greater market access in the service sector.

Oil markets are on the rise again as tensions in Iraq will possibly disrupt the supply chain in the region together with the U.S/Iranian disagreement which could result in renewed sanctions for the ‘rogue’ nation. There was also a U.S. Crude Oil Inventories over the last week which has helped WTI Crude rise from Monday morning’s level of $51:41 upto the present $52:07 but watch for volatility later today as official U.S. stock levels are announced.

Trading Diary:

09:40am   Just taken a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 15-min chart, more details soon, house very busy this morning.

09:50am  My trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 9 pip stop loss.

11:25am    The GOLD price has come down quite quickly but is now struggling to get lower than $1279.50 so I have closed off my position with a reasonable +32 pip profit.  Going out for a cycle ride now with some neighbours.

14:55pm    Back home from lunch and there’s not much happening on my collection of favourite charts so I am switching them off for the day, back here early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 17th October 2017

07:55am   Back to a fairly normal ‘working’ day after a long weekend break and I am planning to be at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching as well. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

All three of the major U.S. indices reached record highs once again yesterday with JP Morgan Chase leading the climb in shares with a 2% rise by the close. Other tech shares in the spotlight are Apple and Netflix with the latter showing that subscribers are growing at a larger than expected rate and this sentiment drove the Nasdaq up by 0.3% last night to 6624.  The overnight Asian trading session was also quite bullish on the back of the positive U.S. close and higher commodity prices, copper and oil rose on Monday but have yet to retreat back on profit taking. The Australian ASX-200 finished up by 0.7% as it is heavily weighted with commodity and banking shares.

Crude oil made gains yesterday as risk returns to the market with supply concerns in Iraq due to renewed fighting in the region and reports that Kurds have closed production from major fields in Avana and Bai Hassan because of security concerns so around 350,000 barrels per day have been taken away from the market. U.S. WTI Crude closed up 49 cents last night at $51:90 and is trading around that level this morning.

Gold had a good run last week and rose over $43 over the past six sessions but it reversed at $1305:80 yesterday as traders diverted cash into equities instead.  It is further down this morning after the overnight Asian trading session and is currently sitting at $1290.05.

Trading Diary:

09:10am   I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my FTSE-100 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 14 pip stop loss.

11:00am   Back from a cycle ride and seen that my FTSE position has been stopped out at -14 pips.

13:10pm   A Master-The-Trend set-up has just triggered on my GOLD 15-min chart, it’s a Strategy-A pattern and I have a 15 pip stop loss.

16:15pm   The GOLD price has fallen sharply as equity markets have risen so I have now closed my ‘short’ position, my score is +63 pips giving me an overall +49 pips for the day. As it’s late in the afternoon I am closing off my charts for the day, back here early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 13th October 2017

07:55am   I am out and about this morning on errands with ‘Head Office’ but planning to be back in front of my charts before lunchtime. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Equity markets in the U.S. closed slightly down yesterday after reaching new highs intraday as traders adjust their positions ahead of the autumn earning season and inflation data that is due out later today. The S&P-500 touched the new resistance at 2555.00 during yesterday’s session before closing at 2550.93 (-0.14%) and the Dow Jones 30 was down a similiar amount last night. The overnight Asian trading session closed mostly up however despite the selling in the U.S. earlier as traders digested Chinese Trade Balance figures. Exports for September came in ahead of expectations (+8.1%) while imports rose year on year by 18.7% which surprisingly was behind economist’s estimates.

European markets are opening flat this morning as Brexit negotiations and Spanish issues are weighing on investor’s minds. The UK’s divorce from the rest of Europe has hit another brick wall which looks to be affecting equity markets in London and there is still no clear solution for the independence situation in Catalonia so there are lot of traders who are just sitting on their hands for moment.

Oil markets are looking ,ore optimistic this morning after U.S. inventory numbers showed a slight decline in stocks together with growing Chinese imports of crude. U.S. WTI Crude Oil finished 27 cents down yesterday at $50:71 but is climbing this morning and is currently sitting $51:24 although we could see further declines as traders believe there is fairly strong resistance around the $51:00 level.

Trading Diary:

11:40am  I’ve been back home for half an hour and just got into a ‘short’ trade on my 15-min Gold chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern and my stop loss is only 10 pips.

13:10pm  Off out for lunch so setting take profit level at +20 pips in case there’s an adverse reaction in 20 minutes when the U.S market opens and the CPI figures cause some volatility.

17:50pm   I have been out all afternoon but have just checked my charts now that I’m home and seen that my earlier Gold trade was closed at its target of +20 pips.

Running total for the month is now +206 pips.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 12th October 2017

08:05am   After a busy day outside yesterday I am looking forward to a relaxing time here in my home office catching up on emails and watching charts. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets experienced yet another record breaking session after the Federal Reserve released minutes from their last meeting that showed members were inching towards a rate rise in a few months, as they believe that the economy is now strong enough to withstand a small hike. The Dow Jones 30 index rose 40 points to close at a new high of 22,872.89 and the wider S&P index of top 500 U.S. companies closed 0.2% up at 2555.24 which subscribers of my Trading-Guidance service will have noted as a significant resistance area.

This optimism spilled over to the overnight Asian trading session early this morning where most bourses closed ahead with the Chinese Hang Seng index leading the charge upwards by finishing 110 points higher at 28,500 (+0.39%).  Today’s European session has started fairly flat however with lingering concerns over the Spanish situation and Catalonia even though there has been a stay of execution regarding independence talks, the Spanish IBEX-35 has opened sharply down after the large rise seen on Tuesday.

Crude oil values are holding steady after a large bullish move at the beginning of the week and U.S. WTI Crude is still above the significant $50 level although we could see some bearish activity today after the release of the weekly oil inventories numbers in the U.S.  The Daily WTI chart is suggesting a move down towards its 20-day moving average at $50:25 from it current level at $51:04.

Trading Diary:

11:05am   I have just returned from a cycle ride in the sunshine to see that a ‘long’ trade had been setting up on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart but the price has not advanced much in the last 30 minutes so I have managed to get in at an advantageous level giving me a relatively small 7 pip stop loss.  The pattern is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up.

12:15pm   The FTSE price has shot up quite well in the last 30 minutes and I am now out of my position with a +20 pip profit.

14:10pm   I am trying a quick trade on crude oil before the U.S. Oil Inventories number is released. I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude 15-min chart using the Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern and my stop loss is 16 pips.

15:05pm   My WTI position is doing ok but I have just brought my stop loss down to break-even to protect myself against any potential losses when price becomes more volatile as the weekly crude inventories number is released.

16:00pm  Now out of my WTI Crude position with a 25 pip profit giving me day’s total of +45 pips.  Charts off now and I maybe back here tomorrow morning, not quite sure yet as ‘Head Office’ has been muttering about alternative plans for the day…..

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 10th October 2017

08:25am  I am planning to be at home today catching up on emails and other work plus I will be scanning my charts from time to time for trading opportunities, any positions I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets shrugged off recent worries over Catalonia during yesterday’s trading session as traders moved into equities and sent the German DAX-30 to another record high. The Spanish IBEX-35 reached its highest level for over a week as concerns that the Catalonian region will declare independence today subsides after anti-independence marches on Sunday brought large crowds out across Spain. In the UK the pound rose sharply after Friday’s fall which was sparked by worries over Theresa May’s future as Prime Minister although any leadership battles seem to be subsiding this week. The FTSE-100 fell on Sterling’s rise as a stronger currency cuts foreign earnings for UK companies when repatriated back into UK pounds, it finished at 7507.89 (-15 points) but is higher this morning at 7519.50.

Tuesday’s overnight Asian trading session closed mainly up despite a lacklustre and low volume session in the U.S. yesterday with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index coming out as the best performer at +0.45% (+93.68 pips) and did reach a 2-year high earlier in the session after trading resumed following a long weekend break. Crude oil values are rising for the second day in a row as OPEC announces that prices are ‘re-balancing’ after a few years of volatility. U.S. WTI Crude rose 30 cents yesterday to close at $49:53 last night and is further up this morning at $49:75.  Gold bounced off its 200-day moving average on Friday and is taking advantage of some sporadic buying as investors in Europe hedge against the Spanish problem. It has risen in price for steadily now over the last two sessions but looks to have found some resistance at the 20-day moving average – watch for a possible trading opportunity around here.

Trading Diary:

10:15am   Noting to see on my collection of favourite charts at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride, back in an hour or so.

13:55pm   I have just entered a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B setup and my stop loss is 24 pips.

14:50pm   Trades at this time of the day are usually quite quick due to the volatility inherent in the market during the U.S open and my S&P position is no exception, I am now out with a 41 pip profit.

15:15pm   Happy with my ‘score’ so far, so I am switching off my screens for today and will be back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 6th October 2017

08:40am  No trading for me today as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day in the U.S. and markets can be slightly unpredictable, I’ve found over the last 25 years that it’s best to stay away from the charts until everything’s settled down. I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday and I hope you all have a nice relaxing weekend.

Market Update:

Markets in Europe and the U.S. closed higher on Thursday with American indices posting further record highs with the financial and technology companies leading the move up. Banks and associated companies were in favour as yields rose after the senate passed a $4.1 trillion budget which is seen as the first step in Trump’s tax reform plans. The S&P-500 rose to a high of 2552.90 before closing at 2552.07 which was its sixth record close in a row, the best performance since 1997 although today’s moves are less obvious as we have the monthly jobs numbers out in around 5 hours time so equity markets will be fairly quiet in the run up and then volatile for the rest of today’s session.

The overnight Asian trading session was upbeat after the higher U.S. close with nearly all markets finishing in positive territory apart from the Shanghai Composite and South Korean Kospi index which were still closed for national holidays. Crude oil values are still being supported by hopes that OPEC and Russia are going to work together with production cuts well into 2018 although prospects of another storm in the U.S. Gulf region could increase crude stocks if petroleum production is disrupted once again. WTI Crude rose 87 cents during yesterday’s session to close at $50:73 and is holding steady around the same level this morning.  Gold is still suffering from the flow of money into equities at the moment, it fell $7:00 yesterday to end the session at $1268:00 but we may see a slowing of the bearish momentum soon as it gets close to its 200-day moving average at $1263:60. Watch for a possible price reaction around this level.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 5th October 2017

08:15am  Another quiet day at home doing some odd jobs and also watching my charts every so often, any trades I find will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

All the major U.S. indices closed at further record highs on Wednesday on encouraging economic data released through the day. Jobs growth and a healthy manufacturing sector helped push equities higher and the S&P-500 closed at 2537.74, although it had been as high as 2540 around midday before the announcements. There should be a slowing down in the bullish momentum today as traders adjust their positions ahead of tomorrow’s monthly jobs report and if you take yesterday’s ADP employment numbers into consideration, there could be small decline on August’s level but it is still expected to be positive despite the hurricane disruption.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed overall with the main Chinese and South Korean indices closed for bank holidays. The Australian ASX-200 finished level after lower retail sales data was released although their trade surplus was better than expectations. This morning’s European trading session has got off to a fairly good start with the London FTSE-100 and Spanish IBEX-35 showing gains but the German DAX-30 is slightly lower. There was large drops in Spanish stocks yesterday on worries over the Catalonia situation but some bargain hunters have come into the market this an driven the main Spanish index higher in the past hour.

Oil traders are watch the meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia as further production cuts between Russia and OPEC members have been suggested and this is stabilising crude oil prices for the moment. U.S. WTI Crude has been falling for the last five sessions but there is some buyers coming into the market this morning and the price has bounced at the low of $49:75 and is now sitting at $49:98. There is a small support/resistance level at $50:25 so watch for a possible reaction around this level if prices rise further.

Trading Diary:

09:00am  I have just got into a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude Oil chart, more details soon I am on a Skype call at the moment.

09:05am   The trade mentioned above is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 17 pip stop loss.

 09:25am    I am now in another Master-The-Trend Position, this time on my Gold 15 minute chart with an 18 pip stop loss.

09:55am   The Brent Crude price has shot up quite well in the past 30 minutes so I am now out of my position with a +32 pip profit. My Gold position is still doing ok but I will a bit longer to see how it develops.

10:40am   I have just closed off my Gold trade for a very un-technical reason — my neighbour has invited me out for a cycle ride.  The position has given me +22 pips.

14:10pm  Just back from lunch and there’s not much to get excited about on my collection of charts at the moment so I am going to switch them off now as I am quite happy with my score for the day so far (+54 pips)

Tomorrow is Non Farm Payrolls day so traditionally I do not trade, I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday after a 4-day break from ‘work’

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 4th October 2017

08:30am   I am planning another quiet day at home with some chart watching from time to time so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets are in focus over the last day or so as the Spanish/Catalonian crisis deepens with the head of the region’s separatists government saying that they will declare independence in next few days which could then spark a constitutional crisis with Madrid.  The Spanish IBEX is down sharply this morning and is breaching the long term support at 10,085, it is currently sitting at 10,074.50 which is just below its 50-week moving average.  The German DAX-30 is trading level this morning after yesterday’s holiday and the London FTSE-100 is looking quite bullish at 7473 being helped by good news from Tesco, sending their shares up 1.5% in early trading.

Markets in the U.S. closed at another record high yesterday as buying momentum keeps company valuations up although traders I have spoken to last night cannot put their finger on one particular reason for the bullishness although many do not see the top yet.  I have put a target on the S&P-500 of 2555.00 which it is rapidly approaching, current price is 2533.70 on a close last night of 2534.58.  The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly up although the Australian ASX-200 closed down by 0.77%, it was dragged down by energy and financial stocks (China and South Korea markets are closed for holidays).

Gold, as mentioned previously, has fallen on the enthusiasm for equities although the daily chart did produce a bullish reversal candle yesterday and there has been some buying activity this morning. It is trading this morning at $1276.10, up on last night’s close of $1271.40 although there is some resistance around $1278, I will send out an interesting chart to subscribers in a short while.

Trading Diary:

09:35am  Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride.

12:40pm   I have no trading opportunities to report so far today – off to lunch now with some neighbours.

15:05pm  I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 19 pip stop loss.

16:55pm   The European markets are starting to quieten down now and the DAX index has just risen over its high of the day and retreated downwards slightly so I have come out of my position with a +32 pip profit.  Switching off my screens and I will be back here early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 3rd October 2017

08:20am   I am back from a short holiday and my plans today are to catch up on emails and also do some chart watching from time to time. Any trade positions I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Fourth quarter trading in the U.S. started on a positive note with the Dow Jones finishing 152 points ahead, reaching another new high with the S&P-500 and Nasdaq following with equal optimism.  Bank and Healthcare stocks were the best performers and General Motors also had a good showing and the rise is partly being attributed to hopes that  tax reforms in the country are going to be finalised before the end of the year. The overnight Asian trading session was generally positive following on from Monday’s U.S. session and the Hang Seng Index closed up around 2% following their Mid Autumn Festival holiday but the main Chinese Shanghai Composite index is still closed for a second day for the National Day bank holiday. Other main news from the region is that the Reserve Bank of Australia kept their lending rate at 1.5% for the 14th month in a row.

Oil is continuing its fall with U.S. WTI Crude reversing from its high at $52:83 last Thursday on concerns over oversupply and closed at $50:44 last night and is holding steady at the same level as the European trading session opens this morning.  Iraq has announced that their crude experts have risen in September and OPEC also said their output has risen in the past few weeks despite promises that members would restrict production to try and prop the price up.

Gold is struggling as investors take money away and invest in equities, it closed last night at $1270.60 which showed a decline of $9:45 on the day and this morning the price is sitting slightly down at $1269:95 although the daily chart is suggesting some bargain hunting at the $1270 level.

Trading Diary:

09:25am   There’s nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride on my new bike. Back in a couple of hours.

13:05pm  Just taken a ‘short’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a very small 10 pip stop loss.

13:40pm  Out of my WTI Crude position now, the price has come down quite well but the bearish momentum has slowed now so I closed the trade off at +14 pips.

15:00pm    Just back from a quick lunch and I can see there’s no trading opportunities at the moment so I am turning off my charts and finishing for the day – back here tomorrow morning.