Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 30th January 2018

08:40am   I am planning to be at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time so any trades I take will be reported below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets experienced their biggest drop of this year so far after the 10-year treasury yield rose higher than expected which raised concerns that the possibility of higher interest rates would affect the burgeoning bull market. Equities do not like rising treasury yields because this ultimately makes borrowing more expensive and U.S. companies have been growing on cheap money over the last 10-years. The Dow Jones 30 index fell 177 points to close at 26,439 and the S&P-500 was down by a similiar amount with the Nasdaq down 39 points at 7466.  Many analysts have been predicting a pullback after such a fast rise and I will send out a chart to my subscribers shortly with some thoughts as to where the price may be going next.

The overnight Asian market was also affected by the negative sentiment from the U.S. and most bourses closed in negative territory with the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets down by more than 1% and today’s European open is slightly in the red as well.  Oil is also suffering a downturn with Brent Crude having a negative session yesterday after reaching a high of $70.75 at the end of last week. The global benchmark fell 94 cents during Monday’s session to close at $69.16 last night and further down this morning at $68.78 on a rising U.S. Dollar which is affecting demand.  Gold fell yesterday as well as the rising Dollar has caused some traders to cash in their gains after a near 3% gain in January, it is currently sitting at $1338.50 and is eyeing up the fairly solid support/resistance level at $1325 which is also around the 20-day moving average.

Trading Diary:

09:45am   Just taken a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude Oil 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Reversal UTB pattern and my stop loss is 22 pips.

10:50am    I am out of my Brent Crude position, happy with a 1:1 risk/reward score of +22 pips. The trend is down this morning so it’s most probably going to fall after this small price reversal.

14:25pm   Back home from lunch and just glanced at my collection of favourite (6) charts and there’s nothing setting up so I am switching off my screens now and getting on with some odd jobs around the house.  Back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 26th January 2018

08:15am   I am having a day away from the markets and spending it with the family although I will be putting the final touches to my monthly Trading-Education eBook which is due for release over the weekend. I will be back in front of my screens on Tuesday.

Market Update:

I am reporting yet another record high close for equity markets in the U.S. with the Dow Jones 30 index closing at 26,392.79 (+140.67) which was slightly down on the day’s high at 26,458. The surge was attributed to corporate earnings which once again came in higher than expected with Caterpillar and 3M leading the charge with optimistic fourth quarter earnings.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq was less bullish and closed slightly down and the S&P-500 was just 0.1% ahead by the end of the evening.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed with a rise int the U.S. Dollar following President Trump’s comments on its forthcoming strength affecting exporters in the region. The Nikkei-225 and Australian ASX-200 both finished in negative territory although the two Chinese indices closed slightly up after a volatile session. Oil is starting to give up some of this week’s gains as the Dollar strengthened and concerns were voiced over a slowing demand as we go towards the milder spring weather. Brent Crude fell 87 cents yesterday to close last night at $69.56, just under the significant $70 level although we could see a small move upto the $70.25 level today.

Gold hit a long term resistance level at $1365 during yesterday’s session and pulled back to finish the day in negative territory at $1348.20 but we have seen a resurgence this morning during the Asian trading session and the commodity is back upto $1355.50 currently.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 25th January 2018

08:50am  This blog is working ok it seems this morning after some technical issues yesterday prevented me from posting on it, so I will detail any trades I take through the day. I took a couple of positions yesterday – both were Master-The-Trend trades, one on the UK FTSE-100 and the other on Gold. They both ended positively and my score for the day was +52 pips.

Market Update:

European stock markets closed mostly lower on Wednesday afternoon as corporate earnings came in mixed at best although this sentiment did not carry over to the U.S. session where the Dow Jones 30 index closed at a record high once again after also managing an intraday record as well. The index closed at 26,252.12, up 41.31 on the day after a volatile session that also saw drops of over 100 points at one stage. The wider S&P-500 index flat lined for most of the day and closed  at 2837.54 down by just 1.60 points and the Tech-heavy Nasdaq index closed down 0.6%.

The overnight Asian trading session ended negatively with most bourses closing in the red as Dollar weakness weighed on exporters. The Japanese Nikkei-225 index was down by 1.13% as auto, technology and financial sectors experienced declines.  Oil is surging with Brent Crude hitting the $71.00 level this morning for the first time since 2014 following on from a positive session on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories fell for the 10th week in a row and OPEC/Russian production cuts continue to buoy values.

Trading Diary:

09:40am   Just taken a ‘long’ position on my S&P-500 chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern on the 15-min timeframe and my stop loss is set at 17 pips.  Off for a run now, leaving trade target open.

11:30am   Back home and the S&P position is in profit (+40 pips) but going to leave it run for longer and see where it gets to.  I have moved the stop upto +20 pips.

13:55pm   The S&P price has risen very well over the past hour and I am now very happy with the position’s score so I have closed off my trade at +107 pips.

14:05pm    Closing off my charts now for the rest of the day and also for this week. My score for the week stands at +159 pips and the total so far for January is +441 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 23rd January 2018

08:35am   I am still helping the builders rip apart my house so I do not envisage any time for chart watching today but tomorrow looks free for some trading.

Market Update:

European markets on Monday closed mostly up as Banks and Telecoms were bullish through the session and U.S. equities were equally as bullish with the Dow Jones 30 index surging over 140 points by the end of the evening to reach yet another record high (26,214.60). The Nasdaq and S&P-500 indices also finished at levels not seen before, Netflix helped the tech-centred index and energy and telecoms assisted the S&P’s rise. With the spending limit lifted after Republicans and Democrats coming to an agreement late in the day, the futures markets are looking more bullish now, the S&P-500 is at 2838.15, well ahead of last night’s close at 2816.88.

The overnight Asian session was also buoyed by U.S. trader’s optimism and most markets closed in positive territory early this morning. The Bank Of Japan is holding monetary policy steady for the meantime and LG initially lost some ground after the U.S. announced increased import tariffs but the stock did recover later in the session.  Gold experienced a small sell-off at the end of last week, touching the $1325 support/resistance level briefly but it has taken off again although yesterday’s session was negative by 80 cents, closing at $1333.80 but is fairing better this morning and is currently sitting at $1336.20.

Oil is well supported at the moment with a generally healthy global economic outlook and ongoing production curbs by OPEC and Russia, the world benchmark Brent Crude rose 44 cents during Monday’s session to close at $68.81 and is slightly up this morning at $68.97.  Traders are generally bullish as they can see the agreed cuts for 2018 being extended as overall global consumption is going to gradually decrease as electric vehicles become more prominent and the plastics industry is increasingly seen as global problem that needs to be addressed.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 19th January 2018

08:55am   No trading for me as I am helping the builders with house renovations today and Monday so will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday.

Market Update:

As mentioned in some comments yesterday, I thought that U.S. equity markets were due some correction and had perhaps reached their weekly high already and this sentiment seemed to play out during Thursday’s session. The Dow Jones 30 index oscillated between bullish and bearish moves for most of the day but eventually closed down just over 97 points at 26,017.18 and the wider S&P-500 was also down but not a much in percentage terms.  The main driver for this pessimism was prospect of a government shutdown later today as traditionally this will trigger a short-term bearish pullback in equity markets.

The overnight Asian trading session was not as downbeat and most markets closed up despite traders concerns over possible fall-out over a U.S.government shutdown. The two main Chinese indices both finished 0.41% ahead at the close with the Shanghai Composite trading at 2-year highs following encouraging Chinese growth numbers that were released yesterday.  Oil markets traded lower again on news of higher U.S. production figures although traders report that price is fairly well supported at the moment as inventories are still below the record high levels we witnessed at the end of last year. Brent Crude fell 39 cents during Thursday’s session to close at $69.10 and is further down this morning although there is good support around the $68.25 level.

Gold reversed a 2-day decline yesterday when it reversed at the $1323 level and ended the session broadly neutral with some traders pointing out that it could benefit from the current fall in crypto-currency values. The weaker U.S. Dollar will also help the value rise and we could see a return to the $1344 level.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 18th January 2018

07:45am    Early start today as the builders have already arrived, I am planning to be in the house for most of the day so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Once again I am reporting an optimistic U.S. equity market, stocks rose during Wednesday’s session with the Dow Jones surging 322.79 points (+1.25%) to close at 26,115.65 although it did touch a high of 26,130 late in the trading day. This is the first time the index has closed above the 26,000 level but has fallen back slightly in futures markets this morning. Yesterday’s bullishness is being attributed to better than expected quarterly results from some of America’s largest companies, some that reported yesterday were U.S. Bankcorp and Bank Of America which posted earnings much higher than traders were guessing although there is still the looming Government shutdown looming tomorrow if no agreement can be reached.

The overnight Asian session started well on the back of U.S. gains with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index posting a new 26-year high but fell back later in the night to close 104 points down at 23,763.23 (-0.44%) and most of the other indices in the region also finished in negative territory although the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed at its highest level for two years after data out late in the session showed the Chinese economy grew by 6.9% last year ahead of the Government’s target of 6.5%.

Oil markets are still providing good trading opportunities with values being held up by a falling stock situation in the U.S. and the ongoing OPEC production restraint. WTI Crude closed last night at $64.15 (+18 cents) but is slightly down on that level currently at $^3.82 and is heading for the 20-day moving average at $63.40.

Trading Diary:

09:30am    Just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min S&P-500 chart, more details soon – I am helping the builders at the moment.

09:50am    The above trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 28 pip stop loss.

10:55am    My S&P position has just been stopped out at -28 pips.

11:30am   Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off out for a run.

12:45am    I am now in a ‘short’ position on my FTSE-100 15-min chart, it’s another Master-The-Trend  trade but this time a Strategy-A set-up with a (massive) 6 pip stop loss this time.

16:00pm    The FTSE price has just been going sideways for most of the afternoon and cannot seem to go below 7683 so I have close doff my position at that level giving me a small +11 pip profit.   Screens going off for the day and I maybe back here in the morning, it really depends on the builders and how much help they need.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 17th January 2018

08:50am   Planning another quiet day at home interspersed with some chart watching while catching up on emails and Skype calls. Any trades I have will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. started Tuesday’s session fairly upbeat but quickly became negative on worries of a Government shutdown by the end of the week unless Democrats and Republicans put their differences aside and vote to increase spending limits. We have been in this situation before and there always seems to be a last minute deal to save the day so many traders are adjusting positions to take advantage of a potential stock buying spree at the end of the week.  At one stage yesterday the Dow Jones 30 index was up by 283 points and was briefly above the significant 26,000 level but it closed down 228.46 points at 25,803.19 (-0.89%) and the S&P-500 index was down by a broadly similiar amount.

The overnight Asian session suffered from the U.S. equity fall-out and most region’s markets finished in negative territory although the Shanghai Composite did claw back some early losses to close marginally ahead at 3445.36 (+0.26%).  European markets are starting Wednesday on the back foot after negative U.S. and Asian sessions and there is no real economic news out today that will move indices by any margin so watch for technical indicators to hint at trading opportunities. Gold is struggling to get over the $1345 level and suffered further falls yesterday, it closed at $1338.20 down $2.05 on the day and is further down this morning although we could see a slight resurgence if money continues to pour out of equities.

Oil traders have been bracing for some falls after the long run up of the crude price this year and yesterday’s session gave us some concrete evidence. Brent Crude fell 74 cents on the day to close last night at $69.28 and is further down this morning at $68.80 where there could be some limited support.

Trading Diary:

09:50am     Going out for a couple of hours to help a neighbour, there’s nothing much happening on my collection of favourite charts at the moment so not missing anything.

14:45pm    There’s been nothing to report so far today and I am now just back from lunch so I shall watch my screens over the next few hours t see if we can pick up a late trade.

15:50pm    I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart, it is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with an 11 pip stop loss.

16:35pm    Now in another Strategy-B position, this time on my Brent Crude 15-min chart. My stop loss is slightly higher this time at +23 pips.

16:55pm     Taken a quick profit from my Brent position, I am out with a +30 pip profit. My FTSE trade is still trundling along although it’s now in negative territoty.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 16th January 2018

08:25am   Back in front of my screens this morning for the first time this week, any trades I take today will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

Despite U.S. markets being closed yesterday for their Martin Luther King holiday, equity futures rose to another record high and this morning we are seeing further pushes upwards.  The S&P-500 is currently at 2797.60 after touching a high of 2800.60 and traders are expecting another record session today with the Dow Jones 30 and Nasdaq also looking bullish.

The overnight Asian session is equally as bullish after U.S. Dollar weakness, the Hang Seng Index was the best performer as it rose over 1.8% in later trading and the Japanese Nikkei-225 index also rising well  and it hit +1.00% by the close. The only negative index this morning was the Australian ASX-200 after Energy, Telecommunications and Utilities traded lower although the index is heavily weighted towards financials which suffered through most of the night.

European markets are looking optimistic this morning after encouraging sentiment in Asia with only Swiss and UK indices in the red at the moment although the FTSE-100 should pick-up once the U.S. markets open in 5-hrs time.  Gold had another positive session on Monday and touched a high of $1345 yesterday before falling back on some profit-taking.  The next bearish target is around the $1325 level which we may see in the next couple of days as U.S. equity markets rise later today.

Brent Crude has hit the important $70 level at last and has fallen back slightly as European markets open, the price is being held up by increased demand and lower inventories in the U.S.   Usually there is a large production increase in U.S. shale oil when the price increases to this extent which then results in a bearish price adjustment but this is not occurring this time as companies are enjoying better revenues.  There is some talk on commodity trading floors this week that the OPEC production restrictions for 2018 may only last into the summer and will have negative consequences on the futures market which can be seen to a small extent in the past hour or so.

Trading Diary:

08:50am    Just taken a ‘short’ position on my GOLD 30-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.

09:35am   Off for a 10-mile cycle ride now, leaving the stop loss on my GOLD position at 19 pips but the profit open.

10:55am   Just got back home and seen my GOLD position sitting at +52 pips so I have closed the trade off at that level — very happy with the profit.

12:10pm    Out for early lunch so no chart watching for the next few hours.

14:50pm  Back from lunch half an hour ago and the markets are still quite ‘volatile’ so I am switching my charts off for the day as I am content with the morning’s efforts.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 12th January 2018

08:45am   I am out for the day with some fellow traders so no chart watching for me today but I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday after an extended weekend break.

Market Update:

Once again I am reporting record highs for the three major U.S. equity indices yesterday, the Dow Jones 30 rose 205.60 points to 25,574.73 (+0.81%) with Boeing the largest riser of the session and the S&P-500 and Nasdaq Index also performing well with the former finishing at 2767.56 and well on its way to the next target at 2868.00. Optimism is still high over corporate earnings for the last quarter of 2017 and traders are waiting with baited breath for announcements by Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase and Black Rock (amongst others) later today.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mostly higher although the Japanese Nikkei-225 index closed slightly down at 23,653.63 after a bout of profit taking in the Auto and Technology sectors following a good run-up earlier this week. Chinese import data missed expectations although exports were ahead and this kept the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite in positive territory for most of the session.

Oil inevitably gave up some of the rises from earlier on the week after it hit 3-year highs on Wednesday although my Brent Crude Oil chart shows some limited support around the $68.00 level so any falls could be small (currently at $69.27)  Traders see the market as well supported at the moment with OPEC and Russian  production cuts keeping the price up and no big rush to open new U.S. fracking sites to fill the void.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 11th January 2018

07:55am  I’ve a few errands to run today but inbetween those I will be in front of my screens watching my collection of favourite charts so any trades I found will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets closed down for the first time this year over concerns that they will pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and also there is talk of China curtailing their purchasing of U.S. Sovereign Debt. It has been reported that Chinese government officials feel that U.S. debt is now less attractive than other forms of investment and current trade tensions could be the catalyst for China to halt their buying of Treasury Bonds.  The S&P-500 closed down 3.06 points (-0.11%) at 2748.23 with the Dow Jones 20 index down slightly less.  European stocks were mainly down yesterday as well although banking sectors across most countries in the region faired well.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mainly down following on from the lacklustre showing in the U.S. earlier with the Japanese Nikkei-225 lower by 77.77 points after car manufacturers dragged the index downwards although corporate earnings are looking ok for January so far.  Oil is also showing some bearishness at the moment as traders report the closing of long Brent positions and a new target of $67.00 (currently $69.05) amid concerns of an overheated market following a near 13% rise in the price in the past few months. A surprise fall in the weekly U.S. oil inventories has lessened the fall somewhat but expect some further bearish moves towards the end of the week.

Gold looks to be taking a breather from it bullish move over the last 4-weeks as traders take some profits off the table amid Dollar weakness although we could see limited rises once again on the Chinese news regarding their U.S. debt purchasing position. It was up $4.30 by the close last night at $1316.50 and is now at $1317.10 as the European trading session gets underway.

Trading Diary:

09:00am   I have entered a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude Oil 15-min chart – more details soon.

09:15am   The above trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 16 pip stop loss.

10:55am   I have just taken a quick +34 pip profit from my Brent Crude position as I need to go out for a few hours on an important errand.  Back here after lunch.

14:50pm   Just got back home and had a quick glance at my charts and there are no obvious trade patterns setting up so I am going to call it a day as far as my trading is concerned.  I have had a few invitations for tomorrow so not sure whether I will be in front of my screens tomorrow, I will make a decision later tonight.