Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 26th September 2017

09:15am   I am planning a quiet day at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching ahead of a 4- day break away for my birthday and any trades I find will be detailed below.  I have had a slightly later than usual start to my working day as the local BBC Radio station has been broadcasting outside my house this morning so I have only just got back inside.

Market Update:

Equity markets are being affected by the escalating war of words between the U.S. and North Korea with both the S&P-500 and Dow Jones 30 indices closing down around 0.25% yesterday. Tech stocks assisted in the drop and the Nasdaq was down 1% at one stage before recovering late in the session and there was also a late rally for energy companies plus jitters over the German election gave traders food for thought. The overnight Asian trading session continued the pessimism over the Korean situation and most indices in the region closed in negative territory although the Chinese Shanghai Composite did stage a late rally to finish up by 0.07%.

As you would expect, Gold staged a safe-haven rally yesterday off the $1292 support/resistance level and closed up $12.80 to close at $1310.40 last night although there has been some selling in the past few hours and the price has come down to $1306.30. There is a certain amount of resistance from the 20-day moving average so we could see further selling over the next few days. Crude oil has been bullish over the last 24-hrs as news emerges that Turkey may close the oil pipeline from Iraq which is the country’s only supply outlet with the rest of the world, it pumps out around half a million barrels a day. The concerns over this potential cut in supply gave Brent Crude a boost yesterday and it touched its highest level for 16 months at $59:47 and U.S. WTI Crude has now got to a significant resistance level at $52:00 once again where it has staged a small retreat – watch for trading opportunities !

Trading Diary:

09:55am     I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 15min chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 18 pip stop loss.

11:25am    The price on my DAX-30 chart has really struggled to get any higher over the last hour so I have closed my position off at +31 pips.  There was a another similiar set-up on the GOLD chart just after 11am but I was outside with the builders at the time it triggered.  Off for a cycle ride now then some lunch at the local.

13:55pm   Back home now and I’ve just got into a ‘long’ position on my 30-min S&P-500 chart. It’s another Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up and my stop loss is 31 pips but now sure how long I will stay in the trade as this period of the day is a very volatile couple of hours.

15:00pm   The S&P-500 price seems to have got stuck slightly at the 2503.00 level so I am now out of my position at +32 pips giving me a day’s total of +63 pips which I am more than happy with so I am turning off my screens now for this session.

This is my last day of trading for the month as I am away somewhere for a birthday surprise although I will still be sending out my daily Trading-Guidance sheet very morning as this is very important for new traders who follow the service.  My score for September’s trading is +328 pips and if you want to replicate this performance just drop me a quick email.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 25th September 2017

09:05am  I had planned to be trading today as normal but I am helping a neighbour out for most of the day at short notice so back in front of my charts tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 21st September 2017

08:20am   Planning a day at home again with some chart watching now and then so any trades I find will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.  I am planning a day off tomorrow but will be back in front of my charts on Monday.

Market Update:

Main market news from yesterday came from the FOMC Press Conference last night (UK time) where the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that they were carrying forward their previous rate hike policy which sees once more rise in interest rates in late 2017 together with 3 more in 2018. They did however reduce the number of rises between now and 2019 by one which did cause a slight stir in the markets although the sudden fall in U.S. equity markets that occurred during the announcement reversed and buyers came back in strength. The Fed also announced they were reversing their bond purchasing programme which was initiated during the 2008 global financial crisis, this was also no real surprise for traders and was largely priced into the market already.

The overnight Asian trading session saw increased trading volumes after a slowdown ahead of the Fed’s press conference and most markets closed lower as the U.S. Dollar rose and this sentiment is spilling over to the European open this morning where most equity indices are slightly down on their close yesterday. Gold is continuing its slide south and although it did find some limited support at its 50-day moving average there does seem to be some increased bearish pressure this morning. It is currently sitting at $1299.85 down on last night’s close at $1300.80.

Crude oil rose 44 cents yesterday to close at $50:70 as more OPEC members join the resolution to try and cap output into the first quarter of 2018 although the price is falling this morning on U.S. inventory concerns and a potential lowering of demand caused by the rising U.S. Dollar as this lowers fuel consumption in non-Dollar denominated countries.

Trading Diary:

09:15am   There’s been nothing really of interest on my collection of favourite charts so far this morning so I am off for a cycle ride in the sunshine for an hour or so.

12:10pm    I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil chart, it’s another Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern and the stop loss this time is 24 pips.

14:20pm    Just back from lunch out and noticed my Brent Crude trade has been stopped out at -24 pips.

15:10pm    I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Gold 15min chart, it’s another Master-The-Trend trade – this time a Strategy-A set-up.  My stop loss is 21 pips.

15:55pm    Taking a quick 21 pip profit from my Gold position so my score for the day stands at -3 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 20th September 2017

08:55am   I am planning another day at home catching up on some do-it-yourself jobs that have piled up over the last few weeks and inbetween this I shall also be doing some chart watching. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Although European markets ended Tuesday’s session mixed, the U.S. indices enjoyed another record rise with the Dow Jones 30 reaching an all time intraday high at 22,383.60 before settling down at 22,370.80 by the close, a rise on the day of just +0.18% and the wider S&P-500 was up a similiar amount and also reached an all time high (2506.65). The Federal Reserve will conclude its 2-day meeting tonight so there probably will not be many buyers around until after their press conference at 19:00pm UK time so expect trading volumes to be low but high volatility after we have seen the result of the meeting.

The overnight Asian trading session was subdued as traders in the region also wait for some clues on future U.S. monetary policy tonight. Their interest rate level is expected to remain the same with probably one more hike before the end of the year but what is of more interest is the timing and details of how they are going to unwind the $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Gold has not seen the moves in the past few days that it’s experienced earlier in the month as investors are playing a waiting game ahead of the Fed’s meeting but we have seen a slight rise after President Trump’s comments at the UN yesterday which many see as provoking nuclear confrontation. It closed up $3.30 yesterday at $1310.80 and is slightly higher this morning at $1312.25.

Crude oil is slowly moving upwards this morning as comments from Iraq’s oil minister regarding the reigning back of output from OPEC member countries has brought some buyers in for futures contracts and there is also evidence this week of a smaller than expected rise in U.S. crude inventories although that will need to be confirmed later today. U.S. WTI Crude closed at $50:25 last night, a rise of 34 cents but has slipped back to that level in the past few minutes after reaching $50:42 earlier this morning.

Trading Diary:

09:45am   I feel history repeating itself slightly today as I have taken another early morning trend trade on the German DAX-30 index. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern and the stop loss is 15 pips.

10:00am   Quick 20 pip profit from the DAX position, the price is too volatile to stay in for any length of time.

14:35pm  Just got back from lunch and markets slightly erratic so I think I will close my screens off for the day.  If you are watching your charts this evening be careful in the lead up to the Fed press conference at 19:30pm UK time, there will be some volatile moves.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 19th September 2017

08:05am  I am back home after a long weekend break and I shall be here in my home office catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I find will be detailed below.

Market Update:

European equity markets closed mainly higher on Monday as perceived geopolitical risk subsided and Portugal returned to ‘Investment Grade’ once again after 5 years and this sentiment was carried on later in the day over in the U.S. where the Dow Jones 30 index closed once again at a record high. The index of 30 leading companies finished the session up 63 points at 22,331.35 with Boeing and Caterpillar contributing the highest rises together with the financial sector as a whole although this could be tempered today as traders await the outcome of the two day Federal Reserve meeting which kicks off today.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed as traders seemed reluctant to buy ahead of the Fed meeting as they are concerned about future U.S. monetary policy although the Japanese Nikkei-225 index gained over 1.77% by the close as a raft of buying occurred following their Respect For The Aged bank holiday.  Gold is still edging down as equity markets rise although the fall has lessened slightly as the price hit the 200-moving average on the 4-hr chart but we could see a further drop this week to the minor support/resistance level at $1296.  The commodity is currently sitting at $1307.10 having fallen $11.55 during yesterday’s session.

Crude oil values are still on the rise as OPEC leading member Saudi Arabia together with other major producers such as Russia have pledged to hold back around 1.8 million barrels per day from the market for the rest of 2017 to try to prop up prices and this does seem to be having an effect although as expected, the U.S. producers have taken advantage of this and increased shale production to compensate so the rise in the WTI Crude price could be capped around the $50/$51 level.  It’s price is currently at $50.56 up from last night’s close of $49.91.

Trading Diary:

08:20am    Just entered a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart more details shortly as I have a Skype call now.

08:25am    The above trade was triggered by a Master-The-Trend Strategy B pattern and my stop loss is 13 pips.

08:45am    As it’s early in the morning and the European trading session is still getting underway I have exercised some caution and taken a quick 20 pip profit from my DAX trade.

09:00am   Nothing much else happening on my charts at the moment so I am off for a cycle ride for an hour or so.

15:30pm    Back from a late lunch and there’s not very much happening on my collection of favourite charts so I am switching them off for the day – back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 14th September 2017

08:25am   Ahead of a long weekend away starting this evening, I shall be here at home catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I find will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets hit another all-time high last night as both the S&P-500 and Dow Jones 30 indices closed at record levels despite tech stocks falling across the board. The rising oil price helped the energy sector rise over 1% which gave markets an overall optimistic feel as Wednesday’s trading session came to a close but the overnight Asian session did not carry on this optimism as Chinese economic data failed to hit expectations. The Shanghai Composite closed virtually flat but the Hang Seng lost 103 points by the close with Japanese and Australian markets also down on the day.

Oil prices are being held up at the moment by and expected increase in demand although the U.S. WTI Crude Oil price seems to have hit a ceiling around the $49:40 level so we could see a small fall from this level for the rest of the week. The International Energy Agency has raised its global forecast for oil demand for the rest of the year and this is underpinning this week’s price rise. Gold has suffered a near $40 drop in value this week as money has poured into equities but price is now very close to its 20-day moving average (at $1316) so watch for a potential bullish price reversal around this point  (I will send out a chart to subscribers soon)

Trading Diary:

09:45am  Not much to see on my charts at the moment so off for a cycle ride.

13:25pm  Just back from an early lunch and I have joined in on the general bearishness in equity markets at the moment.  I have taken a ‘short’ position on my FTSE-100 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 18 pip stop loss.

13:55pm   Now also in a ‘long’ position on my Brent Crude chart. This time it’s a Strategy-A pattern from the Master-The-Trend system and stop loss is also 18 pips.

15:40pm   I have just closed off my Brent Crude position at +35 pips, the price has reached a small resistance close to the $56 level so I deemed it sensible to come out and preserve some profit. My FTSE position is still trundling along but not really moved much into much of a profit yet, it is currently sitting at +9 pips.

16:15pm  Surprisingly the price on my FTSE chart has just fallen quite quickly just before the session close so I have taken advantage of this move and closed my position off at +29 pips giving my a total for the day of +64 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~Wednesday 13th September 2017

08:00am   I will be at home today catching up emails and doing some chart watching so any trades I find will be detailed below.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets closed Tuesday’s trading session at another record high on comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin regarding his determination that promised tax reform will be completed by the end of this year and could also be backdated to the beginning of 2017 which will have a positive impact on his country’s economy. Fading concerns about North Korea also helped the main S&P-500 index close up by 0.34% to close at 2496.48 last night and traders are now eyeing the significant 2500 level although we have seen some profit taking in the futures market this morning.

The overnight Asian trading session has finished mainly up as well on the back of U.S. market optimism with the Japanese Nikkei 225 performing the best at +0.55% although both main Chinese bourses (Shanghai Composite & Hang Seng) finished slightly down a short while ago.  European markets have opened mixed however with London’s FTSE-100 down by nearly 30 points on the open and the Dax-30 trading flat after a volatile start.  Gold has fallen just over $30 this week so far but has risen slightly overnight as equity markets soften this morning, it is trading currently at $1331:40 and we could see a further fall towards the 20-day moving average.

Crude oil prices continue to be volatile as higher U.S. stockpiles keep a lid on price rises despite reports from OPEC that demand will increase as we go into the winter months. U.S. benchmark WTI Crude rose 24 cents yesterday to close at $48:34 but is slightly down this morning at $48:11 and sitting right on its 200-day moving average.

Trading Diary:

08:15am   It’s often quite risky to take a trade this early in the day but a Master-The-Trend Strategy-pattern has emerged on my S&P-500 chart and the stop loss amount is low so I have just taken a short position. The stop loss is just 10 pips.

08:55am   The S&P-500 price is becoming more volatile so I am now out of my position with a quick +12 pip profit.

10:40am   Just got into my second Master-The-Trend position of the morning, it’s on the WTI Crude Oil 15-min chart and my stop loss is 13 pips.  Unusually I will keep a close eye on the price as we have the Crude Oil Inventories announcement just after lunchtime.

13:25pm   Did not expect to be in the WTI position for this long but the price has not really risen much and it is now starting to become unpredictable so I have just closed the position ahead of the U.S. session open in a few minutes.  My score is +13 pips.

Finishing my trading for the day and off for a cycle ride in the sun now.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 12th September 2017

09:05am   I am planning a restful day at home which will include some chart watching from time to time so any trades I find will be reported below.

Market Update:

Traders in the U.S. are shifting focus into riskier assets as concerns over Hurricane Irma and North Korea subside and this resulted in a record close for the S&P-500 last night. The index closed at 2488.11 which was equal to a record high reached on 8th August and we could see a small bearish reaction soon as profit takers come into the market and the narrower Dow Jones 30 index jumped 259 points also on the back of this optimism.

The overnight Asian trading session benefited from this bullish sentiment and almost all the region’s indices closed in positive territory and this morning’s European session has also seen some concerted buying in the first hour or so. Traders are buoyed by new UN resolutions designed to reign in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and expected missile tests did not materialise at the weekend which helps market optimism so we could see further highs this week.  These rises in equity markets has understandably affected the Gold price and it has come off the high at $1357 and is now trading around the $1325 level although there does seem to be some bargain hunters around buying this morning in the past hour or so.

Crude oil is continuing its roller coaster ride and U.S. WTI Crude Oil is trading between the $50:25 and $45:50 levels and at the moment the Daily chart is suggesting a small move up from today’s $47:75 level.  There is still some uncertainty on how much effect on price that the hurricanes are going to have on refining capacity so that price could be volatile for the next few days.

Trading Diary:

09:25am   Just taken a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up and my stop loss is 18 pips.

11:00am   Just glanced at my charts and seen that my Brent position has been stopped out at -18 pips.

11:20am   Off for a cycle ride then lunch, back this afternoon for some more chart watching.

16:05pm    Nothing to report this afternoon, I am switching off my screens and will be back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 11th September 2017

08:30am  Quiet morning planned here at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching ahead of a planned trip to London after lunchtime.

Market Update:

At the start of a new trading week we are seeing equity markets looking surprisingly optimistic for two main reasons – there was no North Korean missile tests this weekend as many had predicted and although the Hurricane Irma has wreaked considerable damage across parts of Florida it is widely accepted that the impact has not been as bad as expected and as a result U.S. equity futures are on the rise this morning.

The overnight Asian market has also been fairly upbeat also as a result of no action on the Korean peninsula in the past few days, the South Korean Kospi Index rose 0.66% and the Japanese Nikkei 225 rallied 1.415 (+271 points) by the close as traders look for more risky investments. This attitude is going to have an effect of the Japanese Yen and Gold as they are considered havens when risk factors loom large, the USD/JPY has risen this morning on this sentiment and Gold has gapped down from Friday’s close at $1346:30 and is now trading at $1336.95.  There is a small support area for Gold around $1332 so do not expect it to fall below this level this week but watch out for trading opportunities around that point in the next few days.

Crude oil values fell sharply on Friday over concerns that Hurricane Irma is going to upset refining capacity resulting in a build up of crude stocks in the coming weeks, it fell over 3% into the close on Friday but has gained back some of the losses this morning as the Saudi Oil Minister has met with his opposite number from Venezuela and Kazakhstan  over the weekend to discuss an extension to the previously agreed production cuts. U.S WTI Crude is currently siting at $47:63 having fallen from Friday’s high of $49:23.

Trading Diary:

11:55am   It’s been a quiet morning with regard to my collection of favourite charts but I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my Gold 15-min chart. It’s a UTB Price-Reversal pattern and my stop loss is just 12 pips.

12:40pm    I have just come out of the Gold trade as the price has just hit a small support level around the $1334.20 and retreated back upwards and I am also away soon as well so I wanted to close the position before I left. I have managed a profit of 24 pips and I will be back here tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 7th September 2017

 

09:10am  We are experiencing problems with our U..S. email provider (Aweber) this morning so all usual emails (daily Trading-Guidance etc.) are later than usual, apologies if you have been affected by this issue. It would seem that they are getting through slowly and delivery has been speeding up over the past hour.

I am at home this morning catching upon emails and doing some chart watching before I am off to London this afternoon for a couple of days.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets closed slightly up on Wednesday evening after President Trump signaled his support for an extension of the government debt ceiling limit and new funding plan and partly as a result the Dow Jones closed up by  just over 54 points at 21,807 and the S&P-500 was up by a similiar percentage amount despite ongoing concerns on the cost and impact of the two hurricanes that have and are affecting the south east of the country. The overnight Asian trading session was reasonably bullish although at the close indices in the region were mixed with the ASX-200 and Nikkei 225 slightly ahead but the two Chinese bourses finished the day in negative territory.

Oil values have been holding steady this morning after bullish action in the past couple of days, the problems over refining due to to Hurricane Harvey are largely subsiding as more refineries are coming back on stream so crude is being moved out of storage to satisfy this demand but to counter that there is still large oil stocks being held in the U.S. so prices are not gaining a great deal. U.S. WTI Crude closed Wednesday’s session at $49:13 (+56 cents) and is slightly ahead of that level this morning at $49:20.  Gold experienced a bout of profit taking yesterday as the price hit a previous high at $1338 from November 2016, it closed the day $5:70 down at $1334:00 but is slightly higher this morning ($1338:95)

Trading Diary:

10:15am   I have just entered a ‘long’ trade on my German DAX-30 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 36 pip stop loss.

11:25am  The price on my DAX-30 chart has risen quite dramatically in the past hour but has now reached a peak at 12365 and has started to decline so I am now out with a profit of +62 pips. As I am off to London at lunchtime I now turning off my screens and that’s it until next Monday.