Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 16th August 2018

09:20am    Nice relaxed start to my trading day this morning and with wet, dismal weather forecast for the rest of the day I shall be indoors in front of my charts and also catching up on all the emails that have come in while I have been away. Any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary  as usual.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets took a dive on Wednesday and ended down overall as the tech sector weighed heavily on sentiment after Chinese tech giant Tencent reported a fall in earnings and a relatively gloomy outlook.  The S&P-500 finished at 2,818.37 down 21.59 points (-0.76%) and the Dow Jones 30 fell slightly less at -0.54% by the close last night.

The overnight Asian trading session began negatively after a poor U.S. showing earlier but regained some ground later in the day after China announced it was planning a new round of trade talks with the U.S. which according to official sources is happening within the next two weeks.  Despite a bullish finish to most equity markets in the area, they all finished in negative territory with the South Korean Kospi and Chinese Hang Seng Index performing worst at -0.80%.

Oil markets continued their recent volatility through Wednesday’s session and was generally bearish with the global benchmark Brent Crude falling $1.40 by last night to close the day at $70.97 although there is some bullishness this morning on the U.S./Chinese proposal for trade talks. The markets is still pricing in rising production levels and lower global demand so many traders cannot see Brent rising above $73.00 in the near term which is close to its 20-day moving average.

Gold has had a rollercoaster fall for most of 2018 but we did see some selected buying overnight during the Asian trading session by bargain hunters as the price hit $1160. The U.S. Dollar is softening slightly and traders in London are reporting short covering is also pushing prices up.

Trading Diary:

11:15am   It has been a quiet morning for price movements on my collection of favourite charts but I have now entered a’long’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a very reasonable 17 pip stop loss.

14:25pm   Quick update as there’s not much happened on my usual charts today, I am still in my FTSE position and currently it is at -5 pips an there’s no other imminent opportunities on the horizon.

16:20pm   Still nothing to report !  And still in my FTSE position (currently +12 pips)

17:25pm    Eventually the price has risen in the direction I had originally predicted and I have come out of my position with a +25 pip profit.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 15th August 2018

09:30am    Slightly later start today’s trading session after a very busy night in London – but I am planning for a quiet time in my home office watching charts and replying to emails. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Markets are starting to shrug off concerns from the situation in Turkey and the U.S. equity markets closed slightly up on Tuesday evening, the S&P-500 closed at 2,839.96 (+18.03 pips) and the tech-centred Nasdaq index finished the session last night at 7,870.89 (+51.19). This positive sentiment was largely caused by the Turkish Lira bouncing off a 2018 low against the U.S. Dollar and rising over 8% on the day.  Traders and bankers are realising that Turkey is not part of the EU or Eurozone monetary region so the fall-out from their economic situation is not really going to affect other countries in the region that much despite sensationalist press reports over the past few days.

The overnight Asian trading session was not as optimistic however with traders shrugging off positive U.S. market moves earlier.  The Chinese Shanghai Composite index was the largest faller of the evening and ended down by 57.33 pips (-2.06%) and it seems that tech companies were the main drivers of this bearish sentiment but in Japan where the Nikkei-225 closed down by 151.86 points at 22,204.22 after oil and coal sectors providing most of the falls.   Oil markets are continuing to fall this morning after yesterday’s volatile moves which ended last night with losses across both UK and U.S. markets on reports that weekly oil inventories are going to rise today when the official figures are released.  Brent Oil experienced some sharp moves yesterday and moved in a $2 trading range before settling down by 61 cents at $72.93 after experiencing a bearish reversal at its 50-day moving average.

Gold hit a new 18-month low during early morning trading on Wednesday after the U.S. Dollar rose quickly on concerns that the Euro may be exposed to the problems in Turkey although as expected some of these fears are unfounded so both the Euro and the Turkish Lira are rebounding this morning. Gold was largely unchanged on Tuesday night at $1194.20 but is now trading at $1186.76 and looks to be heading for the minor support at $1140.

Trading Diary:

10:10am    Just taken a ‘short’ position on my 30-min German DAX-30 chart.  It’s a UTB price-reversal pattern with a 31 stop loss.

12:05pm   I am now out of my DAX position with a +116 pip profit.  Off for an early lunch now.

14:35pm   Now in another ‘short’position, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart with a 10 pip stop loss.

15:40pm   The FTSE price has come down nicely and I am happy with the progress of my position so I have just closed the trade off at+37 pips, giving me a total for the day of +153 pips.  Time to switch off my screens I think….

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 14th August 2018

08:20am    Back from my short holiday and my plan today is to spend most of the day here at my desk catching up on emails and also do some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Markets were affected yesterday by the developing Turkish economic crisis which seems to have been kickstarted by the U.S. increasing tariffs on their steel and aluminium exports and Monday’s U.S. trading session ended down by around 0.50% with the Dow Jones 30 index closing at 25,187.70 (-125.44 points) which was its fourth negative day in a row but we can see some recovery this morning in European indices.  The overnight Asian session ended mixed with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index bouncing back from earlier losses as traders shrugged off the potential global reaction of a plummeting Turkish Lira – it has fallen nearly 30% in August as traders worry about Turkish President Erdogan’s reluctance to raise interest rates even though the country is experiencing rampant inflation and a weakening economy.

Oil markets have been given a small boost after Saudi Arabia (through OPEC)has announced that they are cutting production from next month in an effort to avert a potential oversupply situation.  Brent Crude closed flat at $71.15 last night after a fairly volatile session that saw the price bounce off a minor support area around $71.25 but it has risen in the last few hours to $73.28.  Although equity markets have been falling this week, the Gold price has not really benefited and it ended down last night at $1194.43, a drop of over $18 on the day. We are seeing a small bullish move this morning as bargain hunters abound so watch for a rise towards the $1200 level.

Trading Diary:

10:45am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min FTSE-100 chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern and my stop loss is a heady 13 pips.

12:20pm    Still in my FTSE position and I have brought my stop loss upto break even as it’s doing ok  and I’m going to be out for lunch for the next hour or so.

13:30pm    Back home now and my FTSE position is at +23 pips so I have closed it off as I’m unexpectedly going off to London shortly for a birthday celebration.  Also switching off my charts now but back early tomorrow morning.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~Thursday 2nd August 2018

09:15am    Today is my last day in front of my charts for 12 days as I am off on holiday tomorrow morning. Any trades I take though the day will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets closed mainly down on Wednesday after concerns over trade tensions trumped optimism over corporate earnings.  Later in the day the U.S. markets ended their session negatively as well with the S&P-500 finishing down by 2.93 points at 2813.35 (-0.10%) and the Dow Jones-30 index was down slightly more but the tech-centred Nasdaq was upbeat on news that Apple could become the first trillion Dollar company in history.

The overnight Asian trading session was also negative by the close but this was caused mainly by worries that Trump will go ahead with a mooted 25% tariff on around $200 billion worth of Chinese goods that are imported into the U.S.  The Federal reserve kept rates on hold once again (as expected) but have changed their view on the overall economy and now classifies it as strong so we can expect a possible rate rise at the Fed’s next meeting.

Oil markets have bounced with the help of bargain hunters after two days of negative moves after U.S. Crude stock surprisingly grew. Brent Crude staged a bearish reversal late on Tuesday at 75.75 and yesterday fell 94 cents to $72.61 and is further down after today’s Asian session at $72.29.  There is a small support area around $71.00 so watch for trading opportunities if price reaches this level today/tomorrow.

Trading Diary:

09:50am     I have jut taken a ‘long’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil 15-min chart. It’s another UTB price reversal pattern from the Master-The-Reversal Trading System manual and my stop loss is 12 pips.

10:20am     Out of one position and into another.   My WTI trade has been stopped out at -12 pips and I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my UK Brent Crude 15-min chart.  It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 14 pip stop loss.

11:55am    Just taken a quick +55 pip profit from my Brent Crude position giving me an overall score for the day of +43 pips. Out now for a cycle ride then some lunch.

13:15pm   Back from lunch and thinking that I’m going to switch off my charts and finish trading for the day as I am more than happy with my day’s score so far.  Back trading on Tuesday 14th August  

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 1st August 2018

08:50am   I am sending the next couple of days here at home doing some chart watching and catching up on Skype calls/emails ahead of a week’s holiday starting on Friday.

Market Update:

European and U.S. markets rose on Tuesday after reports circulated that China and the U.S. are in the process of organising talks in an attempt to diffuse the current impasse regarding trade tariffs. Both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P-500 posted their largest monthly gains since January and the Nasdaq tech index also finished the month ahead by over 2%, these rises across the board are attributed to bullish corporate earnings together with strong economic data for July.

The overnight Asian trading session closed fairly positively on news regarding the possible U.S./China trade talks, the Japanese Nikkei-225 index finished the day 193 points up at 22,746.71 on a falling Yen which helped exporters so Car Manufacturers were major winners of the session together with banks.  Both Chinese bourses ended negatively however as traders were wary of trade tariff rumours which had initially boosted the markets.

Oil took a hit yesterday as U.S. crude stock showed an unexpected rise, WTI Crude fell $1.62 by the close last night to $67.98 and is a few cents lower this morning as today’s official Weekly U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are going to confirm these figures.  Brent Crude has fallen over 6% in value in July, its biggest monthly drop since this time two years ago.  Gold ended Tuesday’s session fairly flat and seems to have halted the decline that has affected the yellow metal since April and there is not expected to be much trading volume today until the Federal Reserve release their meeting minutes at 19:00 GMT tonight.

Trading Diary:

09:10am    I am in a ‘long’ position on my 30-min GOLD chart, it’s a Master-The-Reversal UTB pattern with a reasonable 20 pip stop loss.

09:55am   Just taken a quick +21 pip profit from the GOLD position.

10:25am  Nothing much on my charts currently so I am off for a 20-mile cycle ride.

13:50pm   I have scanned my charts now I’m back from lunch and there’s nothing much happening at the moment so I am going to switch my screens off and go an enjoy the sunshine. Back here normal time tomorrow.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 31st July 2018

08:30am   Spending the day here at home doing some chart watching so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets were heavily affected by the decline in tech stocks yesterday, the Nasdaq was down by 1.4% to 7,630 after shares in Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and Netflix fell between 1.8% and 5.7%. This bearish sentiment in the technology sector began last week after Facebook dropped 19% in one session on concerns over faltering revenues and this has affected other large tech companies over the last three sessions.  The S&P-500 ended on Monday evening at 2,802.60, down 16.22 points (-0.58%) and the narrower Dow Jones 30 index was down a similiar percentage after news emerged that the European Union, Canada, Japan, Mexico and South Korea are all meeting next week to discuss potential repercussions to Trump’s trade tariffs.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed to positive with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index managing to end up slightly at +0.04% after the Bank Of Japan announced they were keeping their monetary policy steady. The Shanghai Composite, ASX-200 and South Korean Kospi also finished in positive territory after a shaky start.

Oil markets ended Monday’s session on a positive note, Brent Crude closed up by 68 cents at $75:49 although there is a negative slant this  morning after an OPEC report has revealed their output has risen in July to its highest for 2018.  Output reached 32.62 million barrels per day in July, a rise of over 70,000 barrels per day although a cut in production looks likely for August/September to keep values in check.

Gold is on the decline once again and looks to be heading for the minor support area around $1212 (currently $1218:57) if it does fall that far today you can expect a small bullish reversal.

Trading Diary:

15:25pm   Although I had originally planned to be at home all day, I’ve been out for most of it but I will be watching my charts now for a few hours so I will let you know if I do end up taking any trades.

16:10pm     Just taken a ‘long’ position on my 15-min GOLD chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.

17:40pm    Just closed off my GOLD position at 1228.24 which is right on the 10-day moving average where price has found resistance previously. My score is +64 pips giving me a grand total for July of +356 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 26th July 2018

08:15am   My plan today is to do some chart watching while catching up on emails and other admin here at home, any trades I take will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

U.S. markets were given a boost at the end of Wednesday’s session as President Trump obtained concessions from the European Union which looks as it could avoid a trade war. The Dow Jones 30 index erased earlier losses and closed 172.17 points higher at 25,414.10 (+0.68%) and the wider S&P-500 ended slightly higher in percentage terms at+0.91%.  The Nasdaq Composite also had a positive session after Alphabet (Google), Amazon and Facebook shares all rose, the index as a whole climbed by 1.2%to finish at 7,932.24 – an all time high.

The overnight Asian trading session ended mainly down despite the early bullish showing in the U.S., the main Chinese indices fell the most during their afternoon with financial, motor, oil and property sectors showing the biggest drops.  The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite experienced the largest falls of the region with 0.8%drops and other markets just marginally down by around 0.01%.

Oil markets had another positive day on Wednesday after Saudi Arabia said it was halting crude shipments through one of the Red Sea shipping lanes after a Houthi-led attack two ships. Brent Crude finished the session up by 71 cents at $74.78 having climbed steadily over the past two weeks from a base at $71.25 and is now sitting at the 50-day moving average ($74.96) so we may see some trading opportunities this morning.

Gold has fallen this morning as predicted in my Trading-Guidance sheet earlier, it touched a minor support/resistance level at $1236 overnight and has moved down to $1227.88. Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe are dissipating which is also prompting some selling so we may see a return to the $1210 level that we saw last week.

Trading Diary:

09:40am   I have just entered a ‘short’ position on my UK FTSE-100 15-min chart using the Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern, my stop loss is whopping 8 pips.

11:15am   I have returned from a very short but hot cycle ride to find my FTSE position has been stopped out at -8 pips. Nothing else to get excited about on my charts for the moment.

12:45pm    I am now in a ‘long’ DAX-30 position, details soon.

12:55pm    The latest trade is another Master-The-Trend pattern but a Strategy-A this time on the 30-min timeframe. My stop loss is 16 pips.

14:50pm  The price on my DAX-30 chart has just hit the ‘big’ number of 12,800 so I have taken it as a signal to close off my position, this gives me a +74 pip profit and a total for the day of +66 pips and a running total for July of +292 pips.  Time to shut my screens for the day, I may be back here tomorrow although we may just head towards the coast for a few days.

Trading Diary & Market Update~ Tuesday 24th July 2018

09:50am    Back home and planning a quiet day catching up on email and doing some chart watching as well.  Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary, nothing to report so far.

Market Update:

Technology shares helped U.S. equity markets close higher on Monday, the S&P-500 was up 5.15 points to 2806.98 although the Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies failed to follow suit and closed down at 25,044.29 (-0.06%).  There are quite a lot of companies reporting second results this week and expectations are high for earnings above analysts expectations. Google (Alphabet) shares rose just over 4% after releasing better than expected results and traders are now waiting for numbers from Facebook and Amazon later in the week.

The overnight Asian trading session was upbeat on the whole with the Chinese Shanghai Composite finishing with the biggest gains, it closed up 1.62% at 2905.94 and its sister index, the Hang Seng was close behind at+1.44%. These gains were mainly due to increased buying after the Chinese State Council announced they were going to engage in a more vigorous fiscal policy as their economy retracts.

Oil markets are cooling as previous concerns regarding high production causing oversupply are waning, Brent Crude rose yesterday to its 20-day moving average were it promptly reversed and closed slightly down on the day at $73.19 although there has been some limited futures buying this morning and the price is up 22 cents on last night’s level.  The escalating tensions between the U.S.and Iran have previously caused concern although traders now seem to be ignoring that story for the moment, Trump’s war of words could be holding less sway with markets as the White House now regularly issues denials and corrections regarding his Twitter posts.

Gold is continuing its fall from the $1265 level it reached earlier in the month, it closed down $6.97 last night at $1224.33  and is slightly down on that level this morning. A firmer Dollar and and rise in U.S. Treasury yields are the main drivers of this bearish activity and the war of words between Trump and Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani does not seem to be having much effect at the moment.

Trading Diary:

10:55am   Nothing has popped up on my collection of charts yet so I am off fora gentle 10 mile cycle ride in this scorchingly nice weather !

12:55pm    Just come indoors and seen that there could be a ‘long’ trade setting up on my U.S. S&P-500  15-min chart.

13:05pm   I have just taken a quick S&P-500 ‘long’ trade, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up with a slightly higher than normal stop loss value of 30 pips which reflects the slight volatility in the market so far today.  I will watch the chart carefully as 1:30pm approaches for abnormal price swings – I may come out just beforehand if there’s a small profit.

13:30pm   Came out of the S&P-500 position a few minutes ago as the price is starting to become much less predictable. Score is +47 pips.

14:05pm  Too sunny outside to be indoors for too long today so I am switching off my charts for the day, back here tomorrow.  Seen on the BBC News Channel that Suffolk is once again the hottest region in the UK with the least rainfall so going off to enjoy it !

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 20th July 2018

09:20am   I am having a day away from my charts today as we’re currently staying in a hotel in London for a few days.  Back trading next Tuesday.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets ended Thursday’s session with a negative outlook after President Trump publicly criticized the Federal Reserve’s policy on gradually raising rates and banking stocks caused the main fall in the markets. The S&P-500 fell 0.40% to 2804.49 and the Dow Jones dropped slightly more in percentage terms and closed at 25,064.50.  This negative sentiment carried on through the night and the Asian trading session was equally as downbeat initially although many of the region’s bourses did recover early in the morning European time and by the end of the session only the Japanese Nikkei-225 index was in the red ( down 68.80 points at 22,697.44)

Oil price have risen slightly this morning after a broadly negative session on Thursday, Brent Crude closed down 39 cents last night to finish at $72.61 but as trading currently at $73.11 after bouncing off the $71.25 level on Wednesday.  There look to be some resistance coming up at the 20-day moving average ($74.00) so expect further bullish moves to be capped.  There are still concerns over market over supply and a slowdown in demand caused by the current U.S/China trade war which could trigger a negative economic outlook.

Gold is suffering at them moment as the U.S. Dollar is trading close to a one year high, it is getting close to the 2018 low of $1200 where it may find some support so watch for potential trading opportunities if it falls from its current $1223.17 level today.  The 1 hour and 4 hour charts are looking fairly overbought so there could be some falls in the next few hours.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 19th July 2018

08:15am    Here at home until lunchtime so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.  See below for my first position of the day already.

Market Update:

Markets in the U.S. and Europe closed mainly higher on Wednesday with upbeat earnings eports being the main drivers of the current buying spree. The S&P-500 ended the day at a 5-month high (+0.22%) after banking stocks in general had a positive session although tech stocks had a more negative day and dragged the Nasdaq down to finish at 7854.43.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed after a good start that was prompted by U.S. equity markets closing higher. Chinese stocks have been declining all week and last night’s performance was no different with the Shanghai Composite falling by 0.54% although the Hang Seng did recover earlier losses to close flat at28,061.10.  Most other bourses in the region finished in negative territory although the Australian ASX-200 managed a +17.60 point gain on industrial and financial sector gains.

The oil markets were fairly volatile during Wednesday’s session with conflicting news hitting the headlines.  The weekly Crude Oil Inventories showed that U.S. stocks declined but companies in the sector are reporting that they are putting more product into the market so both WTI Crude and Brent were unpredictable through most of yesterday.  WTI Crude bounced off a minor support at $66.50 but looks as though it may revisit that level again today.

Trading Diary:

08:15am   I am in a ‘short’ position on my 15-min WTI Crude Oil chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B pattern with a 23 pip stop loss.

11:00am   Just found out we are catching an earlier train to London so I have closed off my WTI position, it has managed +73 pips.  That’s it for today !