Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 23rd November 2017

08:20am    I was in two minds as to whether I should be trading today as U.S. markets are closed for their Thanksgiving holiday but I am slightly behind with emails and other admin work so will be here at my desk anyway for most of the day so I will glance at my collection of favourite charts from time to time to see if any opportunities pop up. Any positions I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

European markets closed slightly lower on the whole yesterday as traders digested UK Chancellor Philip Hammond’s comments on the countries economy in his budget speech yesterday.  There was also no exciting corporate news across the rest of Europe to push buyers into action either and this sentiment seems to be carrying on this morning as markets open for Thursday’s session.

The U.S. trading session yesterday closed with the Nasdaq index closed at another record high after rising 0.1% to 6867.36 as Amazon rose 1% on news of a major deal with healthcare company Cerner.  Although the tech sector was higher, the two other main indices (S&P-500 and Dow Jones 30) closed slightly down after Federal Reserve minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed concerns over the large rise in equity markets this year and the impact on the economy as a whole.

The overnight Asian session finished mixed at best with most bourses down on earlier Fed comments and the Chinese Shanghai Composite was the biggest loser of the night, falling 2.26% by the close with tech and healthcare contributing most to the losses.  Gold had a positive session through most of Wednesday as equity markets failed to shine, the commodity rose $11:20 by the close to finish at $1291:90 although a bearish trend line may cap prices for the next week or so.  I will send over a chart to explain this morning to customers.

Crude oil inventories in the U.S. are still showing declines and this is keeping futures prices up at their present levels and the shut down of the largest pipeline between Canada and the U.S. is also aiding the supply squeeze. The Keystone pipeline is responsible for transporting 590,00 barrels per day into the U.S. from Canada and has been closed since last Thursday after a leak caused 210,000 gallons to be spilled in South Dakota and this is affecting supply from the oil sancds of Alberta.  U.S. WTI Crude is currently at $57:83, down on last night’s close of $58:02.

Trading Diary:

10:25am    Just taken a ‘long’ position on my 15-min German DAX-30 chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B+ set-up with a 20 pip stop loss.

11:15am    I came out of my position a short while ago and I’ll send out a chart screenshot later as I am off for a cycle ride now with neighbours.  The score was +47 pips.

15:55pm  Just back from a late lunch and a glance of my collection of favourite charts shows me lower than normal volumes due mainly to the closure of the U.S. markets so screens are now off, back tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 22nd November 2017

08:30am   I am planning to be at home today doing some chart watching from time to time although we have a sickness bug here that’s overwhelmed the family so all may not go to plan….

Market Update:

During yesterday’s U.S. trading session the S&P-500 rose above the 2600 for the first time and settled at a new record close of 2599.03 after a concerted tech rally that saw Apple shares advance by over 1.9 and was the best performing company on the Dow Jones Index.  The tech-focused Nasdaq rose by 1.1% and also reached a new record high which has been attributed to the main shopping season of the year starting this Friday and shoppers buying tech gadgets in the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.

This momentum largely carried on during the overnight Asian trading session with the Chinese Hang Seng Index closing above the 30,000 level for the first time ever and the main Chinese Shanghai Composite also rose by a similiar percentage on a weak Dollar and an optimistic outlook on tech stocks in the region.  Oil markets could push up towards monthly highs as U.S. stocks look to be lower this week although the official figures are not out until this afternoon. U.S. WTI Crude closed at $57.06 last night, up around 0.8% and is now at $57:60 and very close to the November high of $57:89.  Gold is still trading with a fair amount of volatility as equity traders concentrate on new highs in the markets, it is still above its 200-day moving average which is a bullish sign for the moment but there is still no trend emerging in either direction.

Trading Diary:

10:20am   I have just taken a ‘long’ position on my 30-min Brent Crude Oil chart, more details to follow.

10:55am   The above trade is a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 19 pip stop loss.

13:10pm    Still in the Brent position and nothing else has popped up so far this morning.

14:30pm   The Brent Crude price has dropped significantly and caused my trade to be stopped out so my score so far today is -19 pips.

15:35pm   I am now in a ‘short’ position on my 30-min UK FTSE-100 chart. The pattern I have used is a Master-The-Reversal UTB set-up with a 13 pip stop loss.

16:30pm   I’ve just closed off my FTSE position with a +31 pip profit. Turning my charts off now but I’ve yet to decide whether to trade tomorrow as the U.S. markets are closed for their Thanksgiving Holiday so volumes will be lower than normal.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 21st November 2017

08:50am  Back in front of my charts today after a short break and any trades I find will be reported below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Markets in Europe ended on a high note as Auto maker’s shares surged together with a positive start on Wall Street at the beginning of the week despite political concerns in Germany over Merkel’s chancellorship.  U.S. stocks continued their rise through the session and closed higher with the Dow Jones 30 posting a 72 point gain by the close, the main driver of this optimism is the continuing hope that Trump’s tax reform bill will come to fruition soon and help companies lower their corporate tax bills.

The overnight Asian trading session ended broadly ahead with virtually all major indices closing in the black, mainly due to a positive end to the U.S. session and also some encouraging economic data from Japan and China in the past 24hrs.  Gold struggled to hold onto Friday’s gains yesterday and finished the day down by $16:20 at $1276:20 on a strong Dollar and after investors moved into equities although we are seeing some buying activity this morning and the price has risen well to $1280:05.

Crude oil had a largely positive trading session on Monday as hopes for the promised OPEC production cut extension will be confirmed soon at the meeting of all members on 30th November when a vote to extend the cuts for the whole of 2018 should be passed.  WTI Crude rose $1:41 by last night’s close to $56:64 although we have seen some profit taking this morning and the price is now sitting at $55:72.

Trading Diary:

09:40am   Just taken a ‘long’ position on my U.S. S&P-500 30-min chart, it is a Master-The-Reversal UTB Price-Reversal pattern with a 20 pip stop loss.

09:45am   Now in a ‘long’ position on my German DAX-30 1-hr chart as well, it’s a new Master-The-Trend Strategy-B+ set-up and due to the high timeframe my stop loss is 43 pips.

11:05am    The bullish price on both my DAX-30 and S&P-500 charts have slowed considerably over the last 20 minutes or so, so I have taken this opportunity to close both positions.  The DAX-30 trade has given me +63 pips and the S&P-500 one has closed at +61 pips.   Off for a cycle ride now and then lunch out with some fellow traders.

16:40pm    Quick update – No further trades to report, I’ve been out all afternoon with a slight family emergency.  Back in front of my screens tomorrow morning hopefully

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 17th November 2017

09:20am  Relaxed start to my last trading day of the week and I am planning to be here at home this morning catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time before leaving for a short trip away until Tuesday. Any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. equity markets were on good form yesterday on upbeat corporate earnings, Walmart and Cisco Systems were stand-out performers as the Dow Jones 3o index rose by 187 points 9+0.80%) by the close – the wider S&P-500 index was up by a similiar percentage. The overnight Asian trading session ended mixed after initially rising on the back of the strong Wall Street performance but gradually came off the highs by the end of the night. Hong Kong and Japanese markets were most bullish by the close with the main Chinese Shanghai Composite ending down by 0.50% as traders closed off positions and took profits ahead of the weekend break.

Oil values has settled after a week of declines over worries about rising U.S. production and once the price hit the 20-day moving average it stalled for a few days but it is rising once again as OPEC has reiterated their commitment over restricting their own production for the next six months or so. U.S. WTI Crude closed last night at $55:24 and is now up by 65 cents at $55:89.  Gold has still not established a trend yet with volumes lower than usual as traders continue to concentrate on equities at the moment. It has been travelling in a narrow trading band between $1265 and $1290 as mentioned yesterday and has yet to show any signs of breaking out one way or the other.

Trading Diary:

13:05pm    I’ve been watching my charts on and off for the past 3-hours and there’s been no interesting opportunities so I am now switching my screens off and retiring for the week.  Back here early Tuesday morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 16th November 2017

08:15am   Planning a day at home with some chart watching and occasional assistance for the builders, any trades I take will be detailed below.

Market Update:

As I mentioned in my daily Trading-Guidance email a few days ago, the U.S. equity market does seem ready for a small bearish move now and yesterday’s session ended with the Dow Jones 30 index falling by 138 points to close at its lowest close since mid-October. Investors concerns over delayed corporate tax reforms seems to be the main worry and a small decline in oil prices also contributed to the pessimism although traders have been looking for an excuse for some profit taking after large gains and this seems to be fuelling the fall as well.

The overnight Asian trading session largely shrugged off a bearish Wall Street and closed mainly ahead on the day with only the Chinese Shanghai Composite showing any weakness, finishing down by 0.08%. Oil prices steadied after falls yesterday helping energy stocks with financial and tech stocks also looking bullish. There was some falls in oil yesterday after U.S Crude Inventories showed a second week of increases although the expectations that OPEC are going to continue their production cuts into 2018 brought some stability into the market overnight with WTI Crude is now bouncing up off it’s 20-day moving average and is currently sitting at $55:37 up form last night’s close of $54:87.

Gold is struggling to find any sort of trend and has been moving in a range between $1265 and $1290 for the last month or so but if equity markets do decline as expected we should see a rise towards the $1296.00 level. Technical traders will have noticed that there has been good support at the 200-day moving average, as mentioned in my Trading-Guidance sheets lately.

Trading Diary:

08:45am   Just taken a ‘long’ position on my 30-min S&P-500 chart. It’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-B set-up and my stop loss is 25 pips.

16:10pm  I have been outside for most of the day but I came in an hour ago to see how my trade was doing and I have eventually closed it off after watching it rise steadily.  The final score is +114 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 15th November 2017

08:40am   I am back in front of my screens today after a few days off so any trades I take through the day will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

U.S. markets are still looking bearish as a number of factors weigh against the bulls this week. Economic data released overnight regarding fixed asset investment growth, industrial output and retail sales all missed expectations and as China is an important part of the global economy, any jitters here has wider consequences across the rest of the world.  Traders are also coming to realise that promised tax cuts and reform from President Trump look unlikely to materialise before 2018 and this is putting a dampener on equities at the moment. The S&P index of the top 500 U.S. companies fell again at the close last night and closed at 25778.87, down by 0.23%, well below the recent record high of 2596.90 that was achieved last week.  The price is currently bouncing off a minor support level at 2566 so watch for trading opportunities around this number.

Overnight Asian markets were also down on the Chinese data and falling oil prices hit energy stocks as well with the Japanese Nikkei-225 index suffering most with a drop of 351.49 drop as Japan Petroleum Exploration fell by 4.23%.  With global worries over equities abounding at the moment you would expect a rush of money into safer commodities and Gold has not disappointed as it bounced well of its 200-day moving average yesterday and is sharply up this morning. The price is sitting at $1283.90, up from last night’s close of exactly $1280.00

Oil is suffering at the moment after WTI Crude hit a high of $57:89 last week on OPEC production restraint but the International Energy Agency has now cut its Oil Demand Growth Forecast by 100,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2017 and early 2018 meaning production is once again going to exceed demand. Traders I’ve talked to this week are looking at WTI falling to $52:00 by the end of this month.

Trading Diary:

09:35am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my S&P-500 15-min chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A set-up with a 16 pip stop loss.

10:15am   Now taken another ‘short’ Master-The-Trend Strategy-position, this time it’s on my U.S. WTI Crude Oil chart – more details soon.

10:25am  The WTI Crude trade has a 17 pip stop loss and unusually I am watching this one carefully as we have Crude Oil Inventories after lunch which usually moves the market significantly.

10:35am   There is a temptation to stay with the S&P-500 short trade as the market is ultimately heading down this week but I more than happy with the current +42 pip profit so I am now out of my position. Off for a cycle ride now back in front of my charts in an hour or so.

13:50pm   I am now out of my second trade with a small profit of just +13 pips for a number of reasons. Firstly the volumes have reduced drastically in the run-up to the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories so price is not moving much currently and not heading down as I expected and also the price has had some trouble getting below the $54:93 level all morning so I am out at $54:95. Third reason is I’ve been invited out for a late lunch and I  did not want to leave the trade unattended during this period of uncertainty.  Happy with my day’s score of +55 pips so I am switching off my charts now as well but will be back here early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 9th November 2017

08:10am  I am at home this morning ahead of a 2-day trip to London so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Although U.S. equity markets closed last night at record highs yet again there are some cracks appearing in this long bull run as the banking sector posted its fourth consecutive daily fall. Recent Republican election losses in November has thrown doubt as to whether the Trump administration can push through their much anticipated tax cuts which was underwriting the bullish stock market run. The S&P-500 closed up 0.14% at 2594.38 last night but is shwoing some weakness this morning in futures trades, currently it is at 2590.15 with further falls looking likely.

The overnight Asian trading session did show signs of weakness in late trading although the Hang Seng was riding high on the back of Trump’s visit to China, the index closed up 243.37 points (+0.84) at 29,150.97 and the Japanese Nikkei 225 was initially doing as well but gave up all it’s gains during the last few hours of trading on profit taking and closed down 45 points at 22,868.72.  This morning’s European trading session has got off to a subdued start with the FTSE-100 and DAX-30 indices showing losses as traders digest the latest corporate earnings and also watch the resumption of Brexit talks today.

Gold had a positive trading session yesterday and rose to $1281.20 by the close after reversing mid-session at its 20-day moving average and it seems to be testing this level once again this morning, currently sitting at $1283.35.   Crude oil has enjoyed a good run this month but there now seems to be a reluctance for any further buying and the daily WTI Crude chart suggests some consolidation after hitting a high of $57:88 yesterday (also the 200-week moving average). Expect to see further falls to the $55.00 level in the coming weeks.

Trading Diary:

10:00am   Possible ‘short’ position on my S&P-500 chart.

10:10am    The price has dropped sufficiently on the S&P-500 index and I have just taken ‘short’ position, it’s a new development based on one of the main Master-The-Trend strategies which will be revealed to customers in the next few days. My stop loss is 20 pips.

11:05am   Out for quick cycle ride with neighbours and fellow traders.

12:30pm    Back home now and my trade is in profit by +46 pips so I am going to watch the price action carefully to see what moves develop before the U.S. trading session opens in an hour.

13:15pm   The price on my S&P-500 is struggling to go lower than 2578.00 so I have come out of my position ahead of the U.S. trading session open and Unemployment Claims announcement in 15 minutes.  My score is +110 pips which I am pleased about given that it’s the first time I’ve used the pattern.

I am off to London for a 2-day trip but will be back at work and in front of my charts next Tuesday.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 8th November 2017

08:30am   I am at home for most of today catching up on emails and Skype calls plus doing some chart watching from time to time so any trades I take will be detailed below in my Trading Diary.

Market Update:

Lower corporate earnings weighed on investor sentiment in Europe yesterday and this is broadly continuing this morning. U.S. indices closed mixed last night with the Dow Jones up by just 0.04% and the wider S&P-500 index finishing flat as traders seem reluctant to commit to more buying at the moment. Strong corporate earnings and tax cut optimism has helped markets rise to record levels this year but a delay in Trump’s tax reforms will have an effect on Wall Street this week so we may have seen the highs reached already.

The overnight Asian trading session closed mixed after a lacklustre showing in the U.S. and traders digested the latest trade data out of China earlier this morning.  The Japanese Nikkei-225 index witnessed some profit taking after hitting a 26-year high on Tuesday and closed 0.01% down but the Australian ASX-200 was up by the close (+0.03%) as mining and financial shares performed well.

Gold has been trading in a fairly narrow range in the past few weeks with the 50-day moving average acting as strong resistance although price action on the weekly chart does suggest a small move up this month, so this could coincide with a drop in equity markets – watch for trading opportunities.  Crude oil prices took a breather yesterday after a good move up as Chinese imports slowed causing WTI Crude to fall 32 cents by the close last night to $56:92 although there is limited buying this morning which is pushing the price above $57:00. The price has just reversed at the 200-week moving average so we could see further falls in November.

Trading Diary:

09:35am   Just taken a ‘short’ position on my German DAX-30 15-min chart. More details in a moment.

09:45am   The trade I’ve mentioned above is a UTB price-reversal set-up with an 11 pip stop loss.

11:40am   I have been invited out for a cycle ride with some neighbours so the DAX-30 position is closed with a +35 pip profit, more than happy with that for the morning session.

12:40pm   I have managed to get into a ‘long’ position on my 30-min GOLD chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern with a 22 pip stop loss.  We are obviously close to the U.S. trading session open so not sure how long I will be in the market.

13:30pm   I am watching the GOLD chart constantly as it is starting to become volatile but still in the position at the moment.

14:20pm    The GOLD price has shot up but has become more volatile so I am now out with a +49 pip profit.

15:00pm   Happy with today’s score (+84 pips) so switching off my charts now, back here tomorrow as usual.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 7th November 2017

07:55am  I am planning to be at home for most of today so will be watching my charts from time to time and any trades I find will be detailed in my Trading Diary below.

Market Update:

All three major U.S. indices reached record highs once again as corporate deals take centre stage amidst a general feeling of optimism. The S&P-500 closed up 0.13% at 2591.13 and is trading close to the 2600 ‘big’ number so watch for trading opportunities around this level today/tomorrow. Energy companies are also flying high as Crude Oil prices have risen in the past 24 hours as Saudi Arabia’s leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman tightens his grip on power by leading an anti-corruption drive in the country by arresting various government ministers, royal family members and businessmen creating a climate of uncertainty at the moment. Salman’s latest push is seen as a move to cement his position as a strong leader who is keen to follow through with OPEC’s production cuts into 2018 so we could well see further moves up with U.S. WTI Crude reaching the $60 ‘big’ number in the next few days.

The overnight Asian trading session carried on the bullish sentiment with energy stocks showing large rises on the back of bullish oil values and also the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates once again. Also watch for announcements by President Trump who is on a quick tour in the region at the moment which may buoy futures markets through the day.  The European session got off to a good start this morning although there has been some profit taking in the past 30 minutes.

Gold has been travelling in a narrow trading range over the last few weeks between the 20-day and 200-day moving averages and touched the higher level yesterday and with equity markets rising once again we will probably see a move down towards the 200-day moving average at $1267.  Watch for a bounce up at this point.

Trading Diary:

09:10am   Nothing to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride, back in an hour or so.

11:40am   I have just taken a ‘short’ position on my 15-min Gold chart, it’s a Master-The-Trend Strategy-A pattern and my stop loss is 17 pips.

13:15pm    My Gold position has just been stopped out at -17 pips.

13:35pm   While the markets are settling down I am off out for some lunch.

16:10pm    No trading opportunities so far this afternoon since I’ve been back home so I am switching off my charts and retiring for the day, back here early tomorrow morning.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 3rd November 2017

08:30am   No chart watching for me today, it is Non Farm Payrolls in the U.S. so markets will be quiet this morning and volatile this afternoon so I prefer to stay away. I will be back in front of my screens next Tuesday after a long-weekend break.

Market Update:

U.S. markets moved slightly higher yesterday although there seems to be a feeling amongst traders I speak to that the bullish sentiment that pushed prices higher in October could be waning slightly.  The S&P-500 closed up by just 0.02% at 2579:85 and is currently sitting at 2580:90 in futures markets with a possible move upto Wednesday’s high of 2587 before another move down.

The overnight Asian trading session was quiet as Japan is on holiday and most markets moved sideways and ended mixed as traders digested news from the U.S. tax reform proposals and the new Federal Reserve chairman.  The European open is more optimistic though and most indices in the region are showing gains this morning ahead of the U.S. jobs report in a few hours.  Gold was up yesterday on declining U.S. yields but there has been some profit taking during the Asian session as the price reversed around the 20-day moving average at $1280 and price is suggesting a move down now to the 200-day moving average (chart already sent out to subscribers.

Oil is continuing its move up and U.S. WTI Crude is once again close to the $55:00 resistance level, it’s currently sitting at $54:81 so watch for a price reversal at resistance when we could see a move down to the support/resistance level at $53:75.