Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 4th November 2014

07:55am CET (6:55 UK time)  ~  I am going to do some more work on my psychology book today so will mainly be here in the study – I’ll report back if I have any trades.

The Japanese Stock Market was closed yesterday but has surged overnight building on Friday’s news regarding the Bank Of Japan’s stimulus package although many traders believe this is just going to be a short term boost and will not be a staple in their economy next year. Their  Chinese neighbours are still seeing a slow down in their economy and this has fed through to a range of commodities such as copper, gold, sugar and oil who are seeing a quite dramatic fall in the ir values due to a fall in demand by the world’s second largest industrial economy. Good news from the U.S. yesterday in the form of optimistic Manufacturing PMI numbers showing that they can sustain themselves with out the Federal Bank propping up the economy – although the main indices over there did retrace slightly on the back of the energy stock sell-off.  Technical traders will notice that the S&P500 formed a reversal candle on the daily chart yesterday right on the 2022 resistance level so expect further falls from this level in the next few days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is already on its way down.

It would seem there’s going to be a short-term Crude Oil price war as Saudi Arabia took the unusual step yesterday of cutting the price of its exports to the U.S. amid a growing market of cheap ‘fracked’ oil, this resulted in WTI Crude dropping over $2 on the day to end at $78.20, a low we have not seen since June 2012.  After Gold’s decline last week, the selling momentum does seem to have slowed down during yesterday’s session although it still lost over $5 to finish at $1165.50 and traders will be keen to see if it drops below the short term support at $1160 or bounces off it to regain some of last weeks large losses.

Market Close Monday 3rd November 2014:   Dow Jones 30  -24.28 @ 17,366.24  S&P 500  -2.40 @ 2,017.81  NASDAQ  +11.07 @ 4,169.28  FTSE 100  -58.50 @ 6,487.97  UK AIM -0.23 @ 719.94  DAX 30  -75.17 @ 9,251.70  CAC 40  -39.06 @ 4,194.03  IBEX  -103.40 @ 10,374.40  Nikkei 225 (Today)  +448.71 @ 16,862.47  Hang Seng (Today)  +4.50  @ 23920.47

10:45am CET  ~  Just had a quick glance at my favourite charts* and there’s not much happening so I shall have a break from emails and Microsoft Word and get out on the bicycle to raise my heart rate substantially.  (*email for list)

13:00pm CET  ~  Just had another look at my charts and nothing setting up at the moment so we’re off into town for some lunch and shopping, back by 4 o’clock I should imagine.

17:30pm  CET  ~  Been back an hour and glancing at a few charts I can see the possibility of a UTB pattern setting up on the S&P 500, Dax 30, FTSE 100 and the French CAC 40 – so we’ll see what develops over the next hour or so.

18:10pm  ~  The UTB on the FTSE 100 and S&P charts did not materialise but the other two did and I chose the Dax for my ‘long’ trade as it moves much better than the French index. I got into the position a few minutes ago with a 15 pip stop loss.

19:05pm  ~  I am also looking for any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups as well, I’ve not been around much in the evenings lately so have not been trading this particular system. My Dax trade is still doing ok.

19:30pm  ~  I am now in a ‘long’ TWADJ position on the S&P chart with a 20 pip stop loss.

20:10pm CET  ~  The bullish momentum has calmed slightly so I’ve come out of both my trades as I am happy with both profits.  The Dax UTB trade gave me +44 pips and the TWADJ trade on the S&P 500 ended up at +40 pips.

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