Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 16th June 2014

08:15am  ~  A delayed start for me this morning after a very late night out. I have meetings with builders in a minute and I should be back before lunch to do some emails.

Traders focus this week will be on escalating troubles in Iraq and Ukraine with ISIS advancing and the threat that growing violence in the region could spill over into neighbouring countries. Iraq is a major oil supplier and oil prices affect the general business community so investors are rightly watching carefully for any clues that will affect equities. Last week we saw the U.S. Dow Jones 30 end down after reaching an all time high on Monday but it has also bounced off a strong support level at 16700 as traders look at mergers and acquisition activity to keep the index as an excuse to keep a bullish outlook.  The wider S&P500 index, Dax 30 and London’s FTSE100 also finished the week down.

As expected, oil prices have been affected by Middle Eastern unrest and as Islamist fighters were making gains in Iraq, US crude prices posted sharp rises during last week on fears of disruptions in oil supplies. Friday’s session was a ‘take profits‘ day which meant prices were held in check to a certain extent, meaning WTI Crude finished flat at $106.80 but already gapped up on the opening last night, trading currently around $107.30.  Growing tensions between Russia and Ukraine brought buyers back into the Gold market on fresh demand for safe haven assets. In addition, the problems in Iraq have focused traders away from equities and this pushed gold prices $3.5 higher on Friday as it did since last night showing that the international community believes that the situation could get even more serious.

09:10am  ~  I am still sitting here in the study waiting for the builders to arrive so I have been watching some charts on my MT4 platform, and it looks as though there a trade setting up on the Gold chart, I’ll report back here with any developments. I am not a great lover of trades early in the Monday morning session as it does take time for the markets to settle down after the weekend break but it is a UTB pattern which is one of my most reliable.

09:30am  ~  The Gold price has dropped sufficiently to trigger a ‘short’ trade, so I am in the market with a 20 pip stop loss.  There is also the possibility of another UTB trade on the S&P500.

10:25am  ~   My Gold trade is coming along ok and I’m also now in that S&P500 trade I mentioned earlier.  It has a stop loss of 18 pips. Shooting out for a couple of hours to see the builders at my site up the road but I’ve set stops in case the market reverses suddenly.

13:10pm  ~  Off to lunch now, the stops are still in place for the two positions.

14:20pm  ~  Back home now and I can see my S&P500 trade has been stopped out (minus 18 pips)   – this will often occur if you trade around the U.S. open, especially at the start of the week.  My Gold trade is doing ok though, I shall keep a close eye on for a short while before I am off out with a friend for a cycle ride.

16:15pm  ~  I’ve just got home after a short cycle ride along the River Blyth and the Gold trade is still doing ok, it’s at +58 pips at the moment and looks as though it’s got a bit further to fall.

17:15pm  ~  My Gold trade has been closed off now, the earlier bearish movement has subsided temporarily and I’m happy with the result.  I have managed a profit of +79 pips.  Off to the Lord Nelson for a swift pint……

22:05pm  ~  I did get back here just before 8pm and watched my S&P500 chart for an hour but no “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups appeared.

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