Wednesday's session was defined by two things arriving in sequence: the clearest terms yet for a Hormuz deal, and an ADP payrolls miss that pushed the September Fed hike probability to its lowest level in weeks. The combination produced a gold rally through $4,200 on the New York morning and silver's best single-session move since July, while equity indices held at record highs despite AMD and SpaceX both falling on their own earnings results - an unusual divergence that tells you just how much the Hormuz trade is doing right now.
The level that mattered most was $60 in silver. The morning briefing had identified it as the session pivot, and once it cleared with conviction the metal ran straight toward $62. That is what a confirmed breakout from a three-week consolidation range looks like.
Into Thursday, the Hormuz deal announcement could arrive at any point during the overnight session, and the SpaceX lock-up expiry adds a fresh source of Nasdaq volatility just as USD/JPY is testing the 157.60 area against a BoJ backdrop strengthened by six consecutive months of Japanese real wage growth. Friday's NFP is the week's defining event - and after today's ADP print, it arrives with the September hike probability already repriced lower.
The full briefing carries the complete EUR/USD positioning framework, the USD/CAD squeeze thesis update, and the precise levels to watch across all eight instruments. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the full evening recap and tomorrow's morning calls before the London open.