Markets enter Thursday with the Iran-Oman shipping corridor agreement confirmed and gold breaking above $4,278, its highest level in weeks. The week's dominant theme has been a sharp repricing of Federal Reserve expectations, with the market moving from pricing two rate hikes by year-end to just one following Wednesday's ADP miss. That repricing is now doing more work for gold and EUR/USD than the geopolitical backdrop alone could sustain.
EUR/USD is testing the critical 1.1555 to 1.1565 zone this morning with a 0th percentile CFTC short overhang at -72,447 contracts providing the fuel for a squeeze if the break holds. WTI crude sits near $75, reflecting a deal that has been announced but not yet operational, with the US port-sanctions precondition creating a new and underappreciated timeline risk. SpaceX faces its lockup expiry today, releasing up to 20% of shares for sale, which makes Nasdaq futures the first indicator to watch through the London open - the carry unwind channel from there runs directly into USD/JPY and gold.
Friday's non-farm payrolls is the defining event of the week. Today is about positioning for it. The full briefing covers the precise trigger levels for EUR/USD, the gold entry zone ahead of NFP, the USD/JPY carry unwind mechanics, and the early warning signals that would indicate the week's dominant narrative is changing before it becomes obvious. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete daily briefing, delivered before every London open.