Evening Market Recap: 4 Aug 2026

Tuesday delivered the session the morning briefing described as the underpriced scenario: Qatar confirming Hormuz deal drafts are circulating, Treasury Secretary Bessent calling a deal possible "today or tomorrow" on live television, and oil sliding to an intraday low of $78.26 - all while a cargo ship was struck by an unknown projectile in the same strait, demonstrating that diplomacy and hostility are running in parallel rather than in sequence. Equities pushed to fresh records, the Nasdaq gained 2%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged more than 5% as Palantir's blockbuster results - 93% revenue growth, 149% US commercial growth - rehabilitated the AI infrastructure narrative just hours before AMD reports after the close. Gold held above $4,060 having gapped above the morning briefing's resistance zone at the open; USD/JPY recovered toward 157.80, staying within the intervention-defined range; EUR/USD held the 1.1500 pivot that was this morning's key tactical level. The key number sitting beneath today's headlines is the JOLTS data suggesting a prior payroll print of just 57,000 - if Friday's NFP confirms labour market softening, the 68% September hike probability deflates and every instrument in this coverage resets. AMD's guidance on Helios rack-scale orders is the overnight verdict on whether today's semiconductor surge had substance. The full evening briefing covers every level, every morning call reviewed for accountability, and the exact positioning framework for navigating AMD's result into tomorrow's open.