09:05am CET (8:05 UK time) ~ A nice sunny morning here so far so its going to be a pleasant journey down to Alicante airport – I am taking a neighbour there in half an hour. Afterwards I’ll be back here in the study watching charts – plus I have got 3 Skype calls booked with people looking at learning to trade.
After a very choppy session yesterday, the U.S. and European markets may have a more subdued start to the day as we wait for the release of meeting minutes from both the Bank Of England and the Fed. Positive news is expected across the board and Ben Bernanke has hinted that there is going to be a very slow removal of ‘fiscal stimulus’ maybe even stretching the government help for the economy through to 2015. The S&P500 had another negative session after hitting an all time high on Monday and looking at the daily chart there seems to be more downside ahead over the next week or so. The drop in the Brent Oil value was not real surprise for technical traders yesterday, it has been sitting around a key moving average resistance for a few days and has now confirmed that level after losing just over 100 pips.
13:10pm (CET) ~ I have had an hour watching my MT4 charts but nothing much is happening, so I’m going down to the Yacht Club for a quick lunch – I have a Skype call at 2pm so I’ll be back then.
14:30pm (CET) ~ I got back here a short while ago and while chatting on Skype I also noticed a potential UTB long trade on my S&P500 chart – so I’m now in a trade as it triggered shortly afterwards.
16:40pm (CET) ~ My S&P chart started to get extremely volatile due to the raft of economic news out in the U.S. in the past hour so I’m out of my long position with a 52 pip profit.
18:25pm (CET) ~ I have been watching my S&P chart for the last 30 minutes but it has placed itself in a narrow trading channel ahead of the FOMC minutes later on this evening, so I’m switching off this laptop and going off for some supper in Calpe.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+52 pips) I traded the afternoon session plus 30 minutes this evening
08:45am CET (07:45 UK time) ~ I’ve just got up and after a quick breakfast I’m off for a cycle ride up towards Guadalest, it’s slightly cloudy out the this morning, but the sun is supposed to be out later. I’ve nothing planned this morning so I shall be watching my charts later and also catching up on some emailing.
We had a historic moment in the U.S. last night on the Dow Jones, the index hit 16,000 for the first time ever and my favourite instrument, the S&P500 marched over 1800 for a short while before traders stepped back for a reality check and started to bank profits after a run up that seems mainly to be powered by sentiment that the Fed is going to continue it’s money-printing programme. Oil values are still under pressure from higher than normal inventories and WTI dropped again yesterday, although Brent has not suffered as badly, it has mainly traded in a range since last Thursday. Gold also succumbed to profit taking yesterday and dropped to $1275. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking tonight after the U.S. market is closed so we may see a quietening down later on during today’s session.
10:50am (CET) ~ I have just got back here after a fast cycle upto Guadalest and back. After a quick swim and shower I’ll get into the study and get on with some emailing and chart watching.
13:35pm (CET) ~ I’m in my first trade of the week – it’s a UTB set-up from my “Any-Time” collection of strategies on the Brent Oil chart. I am at break-even with it at the moment and I’ll keep you posted about its progress.
16:10pm (CET) ~ I am now out of my earlier Brent Oil position, the price has stalled and is now going back up slightly so I’m out with +36 pips.
18:05pm (CET) ~ I have been out doing errands in Altea town but I’m back now so going to sit down with this laptop and watch for any trades that may come up with my “Trade With A Day Job” evening system on the S&P500.
18:35pm (CET) ~ I’m in a short trade ! And there seems to be a fair amount of downward pressure as the S&P has tried to reach yesterday’s highs but failed.
19:45pm (CET) ~ The strong bearish momentum has finally subsided so I am out of my S&P500 position with a 64 pip profit.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+100 pips) I traded on and off since midday.
11:55am (CET) ~ After a lazy breakfast, we are off to Palma airport in a short while and going back to Altea Hills after a nice relaxing weekend here in Majorca.
The week ahead on the markets are going to be dominated for UK traders with the Fed and Bank Of England releasing minutes, so giving market participants some sentiment for their trading. Over in the U.S. the Dow Jones 30 finished last week at another record high, spurred don by ‘Fed Chairman to be’ Janet Yellen’s comments last week which seemed to suggest she was all in favour of playing it safe with the U.S. economy for the foreseeable future. Gold staged a slight recovery last week after it’s drop in value after it’s steady rise during October although Friday’s trading session was very quiet, no doubt traders are waiting to see what happens this week when the minutes are revealed. The chart looks as though we may see a return downwards towards the $1265 support level. The price trend in most certainly downwards for WTI Crude now, with inventories staying high, putting pressure on any bullish excitement in that market.
23:05pm (CET) ~ We did get back home just after 8 o’clock but then went out almost immediately after accepting an invitation from a neighbour. We were supposed to be back here mid-afternoon but we were at the mercy of a broken down plane at Palma.
09:15am (CET) ~ The Fed Chief-To-Be, Janet Yellen had a grilling yesterday but came out ok it would appear and as a result pushed the S&P500 towards the lofty heights of 1800. These are uncharted waters as far as the index is concerned, my MT4 charts go back to 1991 and the previous highs were in pre-crash October 2007 with a level of 1576. This was almost the same value as March 2000 and would you believe in the middle of 1991 the S&P was at 390 ! It’s the same story with the Dow Jones 30, just different numbers. Over in the UK all seems well at the moment, housing is doing well, unemployment is falling and Mark Carney assures us he’s in no mood to raise interest rates for a while yet. This together with the fact that the FTSE100 daily chart has hit a support level over the last few days may see a small rise in the index over the next week.
We are off to Majorca this afternoon to sort out some property but I’ll be here in the study before that catching up on emails and doing a few Skype calls with budding new traders. I shall also watch my MT4 charts and I have just been informed a group of us are out for a cycle ride down into Calpe in 15 minutes.
10:15am CET (9:15am UK time) ~ We had a another late night (with a poker evening up the road with neighbours) so my day is starting rather later than usual – I’m off on a cycle ride now then back here for an hour in the study doing some emails. The weather here is picking up so we will be out on the boat this afternoon, we passed on that opportunity yesterday due to the rain.
On the markets the European equities look like they’re going to open slightly higher this morning as the Bank of England and the Fed both comforted investors yesterday by hinting that any change in UK monetary policy or U.S. quantitative easing will not take place until they feel their economy is fully ready.
Data from the Bank of England confirmed the unemployment rate is on the decline, and that recovery has taken hold, however Mark Carney will hold off any policy change in domestic interest rates until 7% unemployment rate is reached. The Fed’s soon-to-be-Chairman Janet Yellen claimed last night they has made good progress towards its goals but still had a significant amount of work to do still. It will be shown tomorrow that the jobless rate will still be too high and the labour market as well as the economy has not performed to its potential. This means that the Fed will continue to support the economy with their money printing scheme, with tapering getting to be further away than many traders have expected over the past month.
20:00pm (CET) ~ I ‘ve not long been back after a lovely afternoon out on the water, and I’ll now switch on my MT4 trading platform and watch my S&P500 chart to see if there’s any “Trade With A Day Job” opportunities. It’s a bit later than usual for me but there should be something to trade.
21:10pm (CET) ~ I’m in a long trade !!
21:50pm (CET) ~ As it’s very close to the end of the U.S. trading session, I have shut my trade off at my theoretical daily target of 20 pips.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+20 pips) I just traded the evening session although I did watch a few charts this morning for an hour but no opportunities.
09:15am (CET) ~ After a late night out at the Yacht Club just down the road I’ve had a late start to the day. Nothing much planned for this morning so I’ll watch some charts while doing emails and two Skype calls as well. We are out on the water this afternoon but it looks like rain so we may just stay in the bar instead. There seems to be a flavour for profit taking in the markets at the moment, the FTSE is edging lower every day since hitting a 3-month high a few weeks ago and over in the U.S. last night there was also a pullback on the Dow Jones 30 as traders booked profits from the month long rise in the indices due worries that an improving economic outlook is going to jeopardise the Fed’s money printing stimulus. Oil prices are also feeling pressure from the same problems and when you have a gloomy outlook in the U.S. (the world’s largest consumer of oil) demand will drop in the near future, so futures prices fall as well, which have an impact on the current cash price. Gold hit a support level yesterday ($1270) so we may well see a rebound today, so watch your charts for trade opportunities.
10:25am (CET) 9:25am UK time ~ A fairly quiet start to the morning, the positive UK employment figures have not really had much of an impact on the markets in London, or the U.S. futures for the matter, but I have found a ‘long’ opportunity on my Brent Oil chart. I will report back later on the result.
12:05pm (CET) ~ I’m off for a cycle ride in 10 minutes up towards Guadalest so I have closed my Brent Oil trade off at +44 pips. I shall send a screenshot out now to all “trendFX” customers showing all the details.
23:15pm (CET) ~ I have had some problems getting these blog posts published today so I’m now doing a round-up of trading since midday when I could last get on here. I was out for the afternoon but got back here at 5:30pm and switched this laptop on to watch for “Trade With A Day Job” (TWADJ) set-ups along with any other trades I could see on the S&P500. I ended up having two (long) trades, the first one was using my trendFX strategy three that had an entry at 18:15pm. My second trade was with my evening TWADJ strategy and I got into the market with that one an hour later. The U.S. markets were very bullish tonight and both trades did well going along with the upward trend and I came out of both at the same time as the market closed at 10pm (9pm UK time) My 1st trade came in at +124 pips and my 2nd TWADJ trade managed +84 pips.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+252 pips) I traded the morning session plus a few hours in the evening
08:50am (CET) ~ Slightly cloudy here in Altea Hills but still warm enough to have a swim outdoors to wake myself up. I have a supermarket run to do this morning but otherwise it’ll be a nice relaxing day in the study catching up on emails and doing some trading – plus a cycle ride later once I’ve found out when my German neighbours are exercising today.
The markets yesterday in the U.S. traded in a very narrow range, mainly due to the fact a lot of traders had a short day at the office because of Veteran’s Day celebrations and both the Dow 30 and S&P500 ended very slightly up on the day. Over here in Europe, it will be a fairly subdued start to the day as we wait for UK and German inflation figures. In the UK the October CPI numbers are expected to show a year on year drop from 2.7% to 2.5%. The month on month figure is expected to show a rise of 0.4%, partly as a result of rising energy bills not being totally offset by a fall in petrol prices. Retail prices are still rising at 3% a year with a month on month rise of 0.5%. Gold is continuing it’s bearish bias, losing another $5 yesterday despite renewed weakening in the U.S. Dollar, although it looks like it is heading towards the major support level of $1270 so we might see a bounce at that point. There was a rally in West Texas Crude (WTI) yesterday that was triggered after a failure to reach an agreement between Iran and the West regarding Middle Eastern nation’s nuclear programme, but the market is still struggling to post a meaningful rebound from the recent lows. Brent Oil also had a good day on the back of this news.
09:35am (CET) ~ I’ve just got into the market with a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart using the UTB set-up from the “Any-Time” collection of strategies.
11:20am (CET) ~ Two occurrences to report, I’m now in a ‘long’ position on my Brent Oil trade (also a UTB set-up) and I’ve been stopped out of my earlier Gold trade (at minus 35 pips)
12:30pm (CET) ~ We’re off for a cycle ride down into Calpe now, but as the Brent trade is currently doing ok and looking as though there are more gains ahead, I’ve put a stop in at +40 pips so I don’t lose all the gains so far and left it to run.
14:55pm (CET) ~ Got back here 5 minutes ago and noticed that Brent has risen quite nicely, so I’ve closed the trade off at +116 pips. I am off now shopping as I did not manage it earlier.
19:30pm (CET) ~ I got home here at 6:30pm and very soon got my MT4 chart fired up. I had an initial trade just before 7pm which was stopped out at minus 11 pips and I’m now in my second position. I’ll report back later.
19:40pm (CET) ~ I am now out of my second trade of the evening, I have closed off at +31 pips giving me 20 pips for the evening.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+101 pips) I traded the morning session
08:45am ~ I had an early cycle ride this morning, getting out onto the beach and coastal path at 8am, and it seems to me that winter has well and truly arrived, it was bitingly cold this morning. I think it’s time to get out to some warmer climes for the next few months, so we shall be off to Spain sometime this week, as soon as I can get a flight.
Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls numbers shows that jobs growth significantly outperformed market expectations despite the government shut down saw the price of bonds and gold drop. However, the stock market rallied after an initial decline, closing strongly to complete a bullish reversal on the day in what could be a sign of things to come maybe ?
Weekend news that industrial production and retail sales in China last month were a little above consensus expectations was seen as consistent with steady GDP growth around 7.5%pa and taken as a positive by most investors, so we should see the European markets open positively. It is Veteran’s Day in The U.S. but markets over there are open, it is one of the national holidays that a largely ignored by traders. I am just writing a quick email to customers outlining the actual days the markets are closed during the year – meaning home-based traders can have a relaxing day off if their trading my numerous S&P500 strategies.
As well as trawling the easyJet website for available flights, I also have some emails to catch-up on, and I will also watch my charts for trade opportunities this morning.
09:10am ~ I got into a ‘long’ trade on my S&P500 chart with my trendFX Beginner’s “Extra” strategy a few minutes ago. Not much else happening on the markets, typical start to the week.
12:55pm ~ I am off out for lunch now at The Crown, so I have just closed off my S&P trade, I have managed a profit of +38 pips. I’ve managed to get a couple of seats on the 4:30pm Ryanair flight to Alicante this afternoon so it’ll be a fairly quick lunch and no trading tonight, but I’ll back in front of the charts tomorrow.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+38 pips) I traded the morning session today
09:15am ~ The markets will be dominated today by U.S. employment figures out at lunchtime (UK time) but yesterday, after record rises in the Dow Jones Index, traders have decided that the good news regarding the U.S. GDP figures will actually be bad as the Fed’s money-printing exercise may come to an end sooner than originally envisioned. Thi sresulted in quite a drop of both the DJ30 and the S&P500 and once again helped me get over 100 pips out of the market last night during just one evening trade. Obviously, if the Non Farm Payrolls numbers come in ahead of expectations, the market will again take that as bad news so we may see further falls this afternoon as the U.S. trading session gets under way. A surprise move yesterday by the ECB in cutting their benchmark lending rate meant the value of the dollar soared making it more expensive for traders to buy oil in currencies other than the dollar and this showed in the value of WTI falling once again, now down to $94.
As usual on a day when we have the Non Farm Payrolls announcement I will not be doing any trading, instead I am out on a clay-pigeon shoot this morning followed by a relaxing afternoon here at home catching up on some recent Kindle purchases.
08:05am ~ The Dow Jones 30 index in New York finished at a record high last night, no doubt buoyed by slowly improving European economic data and the fact that U.S. government tapering is not likely at all this year. My favourite index, the wider S&P500 was not quite at record levels, but a spurt at the end of the day’s trading session certainly helped my long trade last night. The business news websites this morning are full of Twitter IPO news, it looks like many observers are thinking that a price of $26 is overpriced for a company that has not yet made a profit yet – although Google and Facebook had a similar story following them around at the time of their stock market debuts. Google was $85 in 2004 (now $1022) and Facebook opened at $38 last year and have climbed to $49 after an initial fall. Too expensive ? I don’t think so, they’ve not yet scratched the surface of their vast subscriber base potential.
I am off later for a bracing cycle ride along the coastal path up towards Pakefield with some other traders but first I’m here in the study for some emailing and Skype calls while my MT4 charts are on in the background.
08:50am ~ Not a great deal happening in the markets this morning, but I am in a ‘short’ position on my Brent Oil chart using my trendFX Beginner’s strategy.
11:20am ~ We are off for our cycle ride now, so I have closed my Brent Oil trade off. The price has come down nicely, but the candles are also showing a distinct slowing of momentum, so it’s a good time to close the position off. I have come out with +51 pips. This afternoon I’ll get some more exercise and fresh air – I have some jobs out in the garden to do.
17:05pm ~ I’m now in the kitchen to cook some supper for friends arriving later and while I’m doing that I shall keep half an eye on my S&P500 MT4 chart to see if any “Trade With A Day Job” trade opportunities come up.
17:30pm ~ I got into a ‘short’ position on the S&P ten minutes ago – I’ll report back later as to its outcome, so far it’s running at minus 5 pips.
19:25pm ~ That’ll do for the evening, I have just come out of my short S&P position with a profit of +112 pips.
Daily Target Reached ? YES (+163 pips) I traded the morning session plus the first part of the evening session.
