Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 8th January 2014

08:35am  ~  I am off up to the cottage in Suffolk at lunchtime for the rest of the week but before then I have 4 Skype calls with guys wanting to learn to trade and I’ll also watch my charts while I am here in the study.

The markets are gradually getting back to normal trading volumes and although equities ticked up slightly yesterday there is still no signs of the usual January rally that we have witnessed in the past.  There appears to be rising optimism about the prospects for the US economy after yesterday’s sharp fall in the US trade numbers for November, as well as the prospects for the European economy in spite of rising concerns about a deflationary outlook due to a fall in the euro zone CPI figures for December from 0.9% to 0.8%.  Gold is still moving down from the $1250 resistance level so more short trading opportunities may present themselves again – as seen in my trading yesterday.

11:55am  ~  Nothing much happening in the markets this morning and no trades for me so I am closing my charts and heading off to Southwold.

17:05pm  ~  After a nice afternoon out in a field helping a friend dredging ditches with a JCB I am now home and going to watch my S&P500 chart for any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups that may appear in the next few hours. We are off out at 7:30 for dinner at The Crown.

18:25pm  ~  A ‘short’ set-up with my “Trade With A Day Job” extra strategy came up 10 minutes ago so I took advantage of it – and as I’m out soon I took a quick 20 pips profit.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES  (+20 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 7th January 2014

08:45am  ~  After a nice break away and a day of errands and odd jobs around the house for me yesterday it’s now time to get back to normal life after the Christmas holidays.

There was another negative close in the US last night, the third one in a row, but it does not look as if it will translate into a weaker open in Europe this morning despite recent economic data from both sides of the Atlantic coming in slightly mixed yesterday.

The most likely reason for these falls is that we are seeing some profit taking after the strong gains seen since the 18th of December, and also reaction to the Fed tapering announcement, ahead of tomorrow’s potentially market-shaking FOMC minutes, and Friday’s latest US Non Farm Payroll numbers.

Today is expected to be a fairly uneventful day with regard to data with German retail sales data for November, unemployment data for December, and Eurozone CPI set to provide a distraction, and none expected to surprise significantly one way or the other.

Gold ended broadly where it started yesterday and also hit a major moving average resistance on the daily charts, so it looks as though we may have a down-day today. The next week’s movement will depend on how the equity markets move and also demand in Asia as we approach the Chinese new year.

10:20am  ~  I have a few errands to do but will be back here at lunchtime so I’ll sit down with some charts then and see what trading opportunities present themselves.

13:05pm  ~  I am in a trade – my first of 2014, it’s a ‘short’ on my Gold chart with a stop loss of 41 pips using strategy 3 from my trendFX collection.  I can also see a UTB set-up starting to emerge on the WTI chart so I will let you know what happens there later.

14:45pm  ~  Quick update:  the WTI possibility I mentioned earlier did come off and I got in around an hour ago – and I’m already out with a profit of 40 pips !  My Gold trade is still doing ok and looks like the selling momentum is carrying on for the time being.

16:30pm  ~  I am now out of my Gold position with a profit of +104 pips.  Overall a nice start to my trading year.

19:15pm  ~  I have been watching my S&P500 chart to see if there are any Trade With A Day Job opportunities but so far nothing has emerged. I am off out for the evening in 15 minutes so I shall turn off my chart in a minute.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES (+144 pips)

…..And A Happy & Prosperous New Year ~ Saturday 4th January 2014

I would like to wish all readers of this blog a very happy & prosperous new year.

I am back from my Christmas/New Year holiday now and will be getting back to some trading in the next week.  Although the markets were open over this last week, most of the major market players are still on holiday so volumes will remain low for another week or so.

The first two days of trading in 2014 saw the S&P500 index move down from the high it reached on the 31st of December and there is a definite support level coming up at 1815. As is usual at the beginning of January most years, there should be a re-test of the 1852 high with a possible march higher as investors get back into the market after the end-of-year closing of their books.

Gold has made a modest recovery over the holiday period after hitting a long-term support level at $1180, a long way from the 2013 highs of nearly $1800 that were prevalent 12 months ago. If that support stays intact over the next couple of weeks we should see a rise up towards the next notable resistance area of $1266 although in inevitable rise in equity markets at the beginning of the year may well see investors abandon the yellow metal for a while.

New Year’s Resolutions….

It’s that time of year again – the time where you look back at the last year and also look forward to the next 12 months and access how you’ve progressed in your work and personal life.

And also sort out your New Year’s resolutions.

Are you happy with your job ?  Did you progress in your career in 2013 ?  Is it time to move onto a new challenge ?

Is 2014 going to be the year you finally learn to trade ? You’ve no doubt heard of the untold riches you can earn by playing the markets, but is that reality ? Or is it harder than most people would lead you to believe ?  The truth is it can be as easy or hard as you want to make it.

Have you already tried to trade the markets ? Have you stuck at it for a few months and then given up as it seemed too hard ? Are you daunted by the amount it seems you’ll have to learn to be able to trade profitably ?

I can answer all these questions plus many more that I am sure you have in one short phone call. Let’s chat via Skype and get you going in the markets quickly, easily and with the minimum of investment and absolutely no risk whatsoever.

Get in contact today and let’s get started.

Merry Christmas……

I would like to wish all readers a very Merry Christmas, I will be posting here again in the new year after a holiday away for a week.

I hope you’ve all had a enjoyable, safe and successful 2013 and are looking forward to an even better 2014

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 20th December 2013

08:15am  ~  For most traders this is the last day in the markets before the Christmas break although there will be trading on Monday and a few hours on Tuesday for a lucky few with severely reduced volumes on the main indices and plus foreign exchange markets.  I am at home this morning so may watch my charts, but I’m out doors later, I’ve got a clay-pigeon shoot at lunchtime up the road.

The S&P500 & Dow Jones indices have recovered completely from last weeks falls and are once again sitting near yearly highs, giving pension funds a nice secure end to the year, and their traders a good bonus for just following the market. With the markets rising so well in 2013, will we see the S&P500 reach 2000 next year ? That’s going to be a popular wager.  Conversely, Gold is now sitting at right on this year’s low of $1185 having broken down through the previous support around $1200/$1210 – who needs safe-haven investments when equity markets are doing so well ?  As mentioned previously, crude oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic are still on the march upwards due to the improving economic outlook.

09:05am  ~  After scouring my few favourite charts over the past 30 minutes I have found just one opportunity, a UTB set-up on my EUR/USD chart. It’s currently running at break even and the stop loss is 10 pips.

11:20am  ~  The EUR/USD price has moved up ok over the last 2 hours but has now stalled so I’m out with a +20 pip profit as I am off out quite soon as well.  Compared with some of the other instruments I favour to trade, this forex pair does not have big daily moves usually so capturing 15-20 pips is ok for one position on shorter timeframes if the stop loss is small.

16:40pm  ~  I’ve been back home now for an hour after a nice afternoon out and I’m going to do a bit of chart watching at 5 o’clock with my “Trade With A Day Job” strategy before going out to a party later.

17:20pm ~  I am in a ‘long’ position on the S&P500 with an 11 pip stop loss and a 20 pip target.

19:25pm  ~  The price has stalled at 18234 so I have just come out of my position on the S&P500. I have managed +25 pips.

This has been my last trading day before we are off for a short Christmas holiday, I will be back just before the new year.

Daily Target Reached ?    YES  (+45 pips)    I traded this morning plus a few hours this evening

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 19th December 2013

09:45am (CET)  ~  I am slightly later this morning with today’s market update as I am rushing around before catching a plane back to the UK at lunchtime.

Well - The big news yesterday was that the Fed has decided to taper its quantitative easing policy by $10 billion per month, to $75 billion. Chairman Ben Bernanke expects the program to wind down steadily through 2014 and conclude by year-end, assuming that the U.S. economy remains in a healthy position. This announcement was widely expected as it was his idea and it was also his last speech before he hands the reins over to Janet Yellen in the new year and also it was felt that the economy had become strong enough for the Fed to feel confident in reducing the level of Bond purchases down from the $85 billion level. Initially the markets reacted badly as soon as the news came out, but then traders began to think again and came feeling that it was not such a bad idea, as the reduction was only £10 billion per month – and this sent equities up to the previous month’s highs.  Gold, as it often does, went in the opposite direction and is now testing the $1200 support level as it did in 2010. News of a drop in U.S. oil stockpiles plus a general feeling of optimism in the economy sent the WTI price a few cents higher to $97:86

19:10pm UK time  ~  We arrived home a short while ago after going into London to do some quick last minute shopping after landing at Stansted.  I am going to watch my charts for an hour or so before we’re due out for supper with neighbours.

20:45pm  ~   I had a ‘long’ opportunity with my “Trade With A Day Job” system and caught a quick 20 pip profit. Entry was at 19:35 with a stop loss of 16 pips. It looks as though the resistance level on the S&P500 of 1810 from the end of November is still intact.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES (+20 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 18th December 2013

07:55am  ~  Up early and not much time for trading today as I am back to Essex this morning for meetings with builders and solicitors soon and then flying to Palma Majorca later to sort out a property over there.

On the markets yesterday there was a rather choppy session – both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P500 ended slightly down ahead of today’s FOMC announcement together with Fed chairman Bernanke’s final speech before he hands over the reins to Janet Yellen in the New Year.  As he was the architect of the U.S. programme of “quantitative easing” you would think that he has some thoughts on what is happening going forward into 2014 and many traders believe there will be a concrete announcement later this evening so the markets will probably be quieter than usual for mid-week session.

Gold had another bearish day and is now heading down towards the $1210 support level again and oil values were broadly flat ahead of today’s double news of U.S. inventories and the Fed announcement plus Bernanke’s final speech.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 17th December 2013

08:05am  ~  No market update yesterday as I was still away in Norfolk on a long-weekend break but I got back home very late last night so will be watching my charts this morning and also doing a few Skype calls with new traders.

Over in the U.S. yesterday, their production figures showed a bigger than expected rise which helped a large upward movement in the equity market – the Dow Jones 30 recovered 131 points to 15,881 after last week’s steep sell-off.  Both the DJ30 and the S&P500 bounced off an important moving average yesterday on their respective daily charts, so we may see more upward movement as we get nearer to the Christmas break.  The Federal Reserve start their 2-day meeting today so there’s going to be some news regarding tapering tomorrow evening, and apart from the rumours that have circulated in the past months about why they should go one way or the other, we also have to keep in mind that the U.S. government never likes the markets to end on a low due to the effect on pension values on voters – so this may help delay the tapering announcement until the new year, when equity markets traditionally rise anyway.

A weaker dollar together with a rebound in equities pushed energy prices higher with WTI Crude rising to $97.20 although the outlook remains subdued as there is a prediction that they will have higher output within two years due to shale formations – as usual higher output equals lower prices. Gold traders were subdued yesterday due mainly to the rise in equities and are probably waiting for the Fed’s meeting announcement at 7pm GMT tomorrow to see where sentiment lies in the run up to year end.

8:25am  ~  A few minutes after I turned on my charts, I spotted a short opportunity on my Gold chart (a UTB set-up) and I’ve now been in the trade for 10 minutes. The price triggered a few minutes after 8am but I managed to get in at 8:15am at a good price – the stop loss is just 28 pips.  I will report back later with an update.

10:55am  ~  I have just closed off my Gold trade as a friend has called round for a cycle ride.  I came out with a profit of +64 pips.

14:10pm  ~  I am back here in the study after an invigorating cycle ride and a spot of lunch – I have an hour of emailing to do so I shall watch some charts as well.

14:35pm  ~  I am now in another trade on my Gold chart, this time I’m ‘long’ with a UTB set-up again.

14:40pm  ~  Well that was quick – the market has reacted very explosively over the last 10 minutes, more so than would normally be the case after a CPI announcement so I’ve grabbed a few pips and come straight out of the Gold position, it’s not the kind of trading I enjoy. The S&P500 and Dow 30 are also moving quite fast, so I’m happy with the 52 pips I have ended up with.  Off to Norwich to do some Christmas shopping now.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES (+116 pips)   I have traded the morning session plus a short while after lunch

Trade Of The Week

Customer Bob Brasted sent this email and chart in today. His trade was on the S&P500 4hr chart and was a UTB set-up from my “Any-Time” collection of strategies. He got 301 pips from the trade.

Firstly, here’s his email (click on images to enlarge/view)

FB 13 12 13 UTB

 

And here is his chart:

SP500 trade 12 Dec

 

The UTB strategy Bob used is a simple, price-action set-up that works on virtually any chart on any timeframe. It is one of six different strategies in the “Any-Time” system manual