09:40am  ~  I got back from Majorca earlier this morning, and I’m going to have a day here at home catching up on emails etc.  I did manage to have a “Trade With A Day Job” evening trade last night – it kicked off just after 7pm local time (6pm UK time) and I managed to get +40 pips before I had to close the position off as I was due out.

The start of the trading week yesterday saw the U.S. Dow Jones 30 index shed 161 points to end the day in the red at 16,261. The start of the earnings season kicks off today so we may see a rebound for the US equities but you can see the short term trend has now turned bearish since the testing of the historic high of c.16600 last Friday, a level not seen since the turn of the year. Troubles between Russia and Ukraine seem to be escalating once again, so that may have a muted effect on any climb back upwards for equity markets both here and across the Atlantic.

Gold seems to have shrugged off the bearish slant it’s had since mid-March and is steadily on the rise again as investors see that the U.S. economy is deemed strong enough to keep the Feds tapering programme going as outlined by chairman Yellen – it has started strongly today boosted by overnight trading in Asia.

10:05am  ~  While sitting here in the study catching up on emails I’ve got myself into a ‘short’ on my S&P500 chart. The stop loss is an agreeable 28 pips.

13:05pm  ~  I am now out of my only trade of the morning –  there’s a possible UTB set-up forming in the other direction so I am going to try that if it materializes.  I have managed +39 pips.

13:15pm  ~  I am now in a ‘long’ position on my S&P500 chart although this maybe just a quick trade as we have the U.S. trading session open very soon, and the market will sometimes become volatile at this time.  I have a 29 pip stop loss.

14:45pm  ~  I am now out of my ‘long’ S&P trade, the price has gone in all directions in the past half hour – I have managed +30 pips giving me a fair profit/loss ratio.  I am off for a cycle ride now, I have spent too long in front of my laptop today.

17:30pm  ~  Back from a nice afternoon out – and I’m going to watch my S&P500 chart for a couple of hours to see if there’s any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups.

17:55pm  ~  A set-up has just appeared on my chart so I am now just waiting for the price to go up so the trade is triggered.  The stop loss looks around 17 pips.

18:05pm  ~  In ‘long’ on the S&P.

18:30pm  ~  The strength of the up-move on the S&P has calmed down slightly and as I am going out for the evening soon I have called it a day on my trading and collected +33 pips from this trade.  I shall send my students a chart screenshot of this trade in a minute – email me if you’d like a copy.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES  (+102 pips)

10:30am (CET)  ~  Two reasons for not trading today, firstly it’s the first Friday of the month so it is Non Farm Payrolls Day in the U.S. so traditionally I never bother with the markets due to the way they behave today and secondly I’m in Majorca for a few days sorting some stuff out – I shall get back to some chart watching next Tuesday when back in the UK.

There’s been a positive start to the trading day over here in Europe as there seems to be an optimistic view of today’s U.S. employment numbers and traders seemed have shrugged off worries for the economy that the Feds tapering of fiscal stimulus posed since the beginning of the year. All eyes will be on the Dow & S&P500 charts at 1:30pm UK time to see what investors do with their money after the Non Farm Payroll numbers are revealed.

With the continued rise in equities this week, Gold has predictably fallen out of favour in the short term, it lost another $4 yesterday, down to $1287 although it has started well this morning and is now at $1291.

08:10am  ~  I have a few errands to complete this morning before flying off to Majorca this evening, but I will be around for a few hours to do some emails and chart watching. I also have a cycle ride to fit in as well and a builders meeting at lunchtime.

There is a big day for economic releases so the European bourses will more than likely open flat and then wait for some clues from ECB head Draghi regarding interest rates and monetary stimulation at lunchtime. Here in the UK we have the Purchaser Managers Index numbers soon, so traders in London will watch to see if the expected 58 level is announced – anything over 50 signifies general UK industry expansion and we’ve not had anything under that level since January last year.

Over in the U.S. the S&P500 hit the high of early March towards the end of their session before profit-taking forced the index back slightly and overnight futures trading has only produced some range-bound trading. The Dow Jones 30 continued its uptrend yesterday, gaining 39 points to 16,570 a level not seen for a few months. Behind the rally was the ongoing strong economic data showing the US companies added 191,000 jobs last month according to the ADP Research Institute so expectations will be hight for encouraging numbers in tomorrow’s Non Farm Payrolls.  Gold is starting to look cheap for some traders after a prolonged bearish move that started in the middle of last month, so bargain hunters were credited with lifting the value yesterday, up $10 to $1290.

09:25am  ~  I am just getting ready to get into a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart with one of my trendFX set-ups.

09:35am  ~  I am in the market with an 18 pip stop loss.

12:05pm  ~  Not been out for a cycle ride yet (or done much at all) as I’ve been watching this Gold trade of mine, but I am off out soon so I shall probably shut it off.

12:25pm  ~  I am out of my Gold trade with a +31 pip profit.

16:15pm  ~  Back home now and I have a few hours before we are off to the airport so I shall the opportunity to trade the first part of my evening trading strategy – it kicks off at 5pm.

17:20pm  ~  I am now in a ‘short’ position on the S&P500 – my stop loss is 14 pips.

17:45pm  ~  Well – that was quick. The S&P has dropped down nicely and my 20 pip target was hit a couple of minutes ago, so I’m now out of the market.

08:05am  ~  I am at home this morning here in the study so I shall be watching some charts for a few hours ahead of a tennis match early this afternoon.

Overnight the S&P500 index has almost reached its all-time high of early March and the Dow Jones rallied 77 points to 16,533 a new recent high last seen on January 21. This has been brought about because of a general feeling of optimism overall, there was a bigger than anticipated drop in the German unemployment, the largest economy in the Eurozone and although the increase in the U.S. manufacturing index was less than expectations, it bolstered investors’ sentiment the economy is heading the right way. There is also a general feeling amongst traders that this coming Friday’s Non Farm Payroll numbers will come in on the positive side, so with all this positive sentiment around it was no surprise that Gold suffered another negative trading session, losing another $5.3 to $1278.8.

I will report back later if I have any trades this morning.

10:45am  ~  A friend has just popped round to go out for a cycle ride, so the charts are going off now.

22:20pm  ~  I did get back here a few hours ago but as we had friends around I did not turn my charts on, so there’s no trading news to report.

My beginner’s (evening) trading system has yet again come in with a profit for the last month – as you’ll be able to read in this diary I have not traded it every evening of March, but I have still managed +215 pips

09:05am  ~  I am back home this morning after a few days in Spain sorting out some stuff – so it’s emails and some chart watching this morning and some clay-pigeon shooting this afternoon at the farm up the road.  I will report back later if I have any trades.

Looking at the charts a few minutes ago shows up some interesting patterns. My Brent Oil daily chart shows some long shadow candles and overbought indications so there maybe a drop in price coming up this week. More interestingly, the S&P500 daily chart shows a triangle formation developing (see below) so there maybe some range-bound trading for a while before the index shoots off in a more defined direction. With diplomatic efforts starting to pay dividends in Ukraine, we may see a negotiated end to Russia’s bullying, so giving world stock markets a boost in the coming days.  The Gold chart does not give many clue as to the direction its going to head soon though, the only support level that’s obvious is at $1175 which is some way off yet to the downside, but if equity markets rise we may still see a drop to that level as investors switch from the safety of certain commodities back into stocks and shares.

Here’s the S&P500 daily chart showing the triangle pattern mentioned above  (Please click on image to enlarge)

11:15am  ~  I have been watching a few charts on my MT4 platform over the past hour but there’s nothing much to get my teeth into this morning, so I am off on a cycle ride now as it so lovely outside – certainly too nice to be sat inside !

14:20pm  ~  Back from an agreeable lunch and an end to trading for a while as I am now off to the farm for the afternoon.

08:25am  ~  After a successful trading day yesterday, I shall only be in front of my charts for a limited time today as I have two building projects starting next week so there’s a fair amount of sorting out to do today.

Technically the Dow Jones index seems to have formed a support level around 16200 which had been a resistance back in February and also November last year, so we may see a move upwards from here. The US economic data was disappointing across the board yesterday with the GDP figures, unemployment claims and pending home sales all coming in weaker than estimated, but it would seem that traders shrugged off this raft of below-par data and have decided that there is still hope in the short term for the largest economy in the world. The S&P500 formed a spinning top on the daily charts yesterday around the same level of the early January highs – resistance become support maybe ?

Over in the energy market, WTI crude prices posted another decent rally, gaining $1.03 to $101.34 with the geopolitical tensions definitely lending a helping hand as US President Barack Obama said the crisis in Ukraine may get worse and sanctions on Russia could now include oil and gas.

22:40pm  ~  No trading for me today, I have spent most of the day with builders.

07:20am  ~  As you may have seen I did get back to some trading last night, and this morning I shall also be in front of my charts for a while after a cycle ride over to Walberswick.  I will report back later if there’s any trades on offer.

European equities are set to open lower as they will be dragged down by overnight losses in the US. Concerns that the tech sector has pumped itself up into a bubble again were highlighted by a less than enthusiastic debut of King Digital. In a sign that there is some sanity left in investors, King Digital, the maker of the Candy-Crush game, slid 15% shaving around $1 billion off its inflated IPO valuation of $7 billion.  Adding to overnight woes, warnings by the US President Barack Obama that the conflict in Ukraine might escalate pushed the equities firmly down yesterday leaving the Dow Jones 30 down 91 points at 16281 after it hit a short term resistance level earlier in the trading session. In addition to that, the durable goods numbers were less than the estimates which accelerated the move downwards.

Gold prices tested the psychologically important $1300 support level and briefly crossed below it but bargain hunters pushed the market price back up but still the session ended $6 down at just over $1305

10:15am  ~  Been back for 30 minutes and not much happening on the 3 charts I usually watch but it does look like there maybe an opportunity on Brent Oil if the price retraces slightly and then gets moving upwards.

11:10am  ~  The Brent price behaved itself and I’m now in a ‘long’ position with a 17 pip stop loss. It is a strategy 3 set-up from my trendFX manual

13:20pm  ~  I am off out for lunch now at the Lord Nelson so I’ve brought my stop up on the Brent trade to protect some profits.

16:35pm  ~  The Brent position is still trundling away quite happily although it has lost some of its initial enthusiasm – I am currently running at +30 pips.

17:15pm  ~  I am now also in a ‘short’ on the S&P500 with my evening “Trade With A Day Job” system with a 16 pip stop loss.

18:20pm  ~  Out of the S&P trade – a quick 45 pip profit.  My Brent position is looking very unexciting at the moment, there’s not been much movement lately although there does seem to be a support level around 107.40 and there’s been a quick but slight move up.  I shall wait a bit longer but we are going out for the evening shortly so this trade is not long for this world.

18:45pm  ~  Eventually I have called time on my Brent trade, I have managed +52 pips.

10:25am  ~  Feeling better today after almost a week of this strange virus – going to do some emails today and watch some charts later on as well hopefully.

Looking at the charts, I can see the S&P500 has resumed its upward journey – assisted no doubt by encouraging consumer confidence data in the US yesterday which came  in at a 6 year high giving bulls an excuse to get back into the market. U.S. new home sales data that showed a drop to the lowest level in 5 months did not seem to suppress enthusiasm, so it would seem that we will need really bad news to get the markets turning bearish – maybe President Putin could oblige ?

The WTI crude prices lost 23 cents to just over $99 yesterday but rebounded slightly in overnight trading largely due to expectations the US oil stockpiles are still higher than normal. The US Department of Energy will release its inventories data later today and further high numbers are expected, so short positions maybe in order ?

16:40pm  ~  I’ve not had much chance today to do any chart watching due to a variety of visitors but I now have a spare hour or so to sit down here in the kitchen to see if there’s any “evening” trade set-ups on this laptop.  I have two very old friends here watching – I’ve not seen them for over ten years but they popped in unexpectedly  a short while ago.

16:55pm  ~  There looks like a potential position coming up……

17:15pm  ~ I am in a short trade on the S&P500.

17:45pm  ~  A very quick drop on the S&P has left me with a speedy +98 pip profit.

22:50pm  ~  Just a very quick update, I was struck down to by a strange ‘virus’ late on Thursday night so I’ve not had a chance to sit down in front of any computers since then. Hopefully I’ll be back trading on Monday, but I will update you as soon as I am able.