Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 22nd May 2014

08:00am  ~  After a very unusual day yesterday, I am looking forward to a day here at home catching up on emails, Skype calls and some trading.  I shall report back later if I have any trades.

The U.S. markets had a positive time yesterday, regaining all they lost on Tuesday. The Dow Jones 30 index bounced off the established 16350 level after some encouraging FOMC meeting minutes and had its best day for five weeks, finishing up 158 points at 16533. Although the Fed has hinted at a rate rise, it would seem it’s quite a way off in the distant future, so it would seem that  we in the UK will get a bank rate increase before the yanks. Probably. My favourite index, the S&P500 had a similarly bullish session, after using the 50 period moving average as support last week – are we going to see 1900 before the close tomorrow ?  The WTI Crude price rose to a one month high yesterday as a report showed that supplies in Cushing fell as imports dropped to a 17 year low. Also, an optimistic Chinese manufacturing survey also came in to further support the price rise.

The Gold price fell slightly yesterday, down $6 to $1288, due to a positive reaction from equities to the Fed minutes (an a stronger dollar). However, a relaxation of Indian import rules is expected to come into play soon which should provide some much needed support.

09:15am  ~  Not much happening on my charts so I am off for a cycle ride, I have a route of around 28miles in mind so it should take just over an hour.

10:35am  ~  Back now and I can see that the Gold price has become bullish so I am just going to wait for a confirmation that it’s going go higher, for that I shall use a trendFX set-up.

11:30am  ~  Gold has risen nicely and triggered a strategy 3 trendFX trade, so I’m in the market with a 45 pip stop loss. It’s slightly higher than normal for me but I am working on a one hour chart, so it’s ok for that timeframe.

13:20pm  ~  My Gold position is doing okishbut we have the U.S. session kicking off soon with pre-market activity in under half an hour, so I shall be out soon.

13:30pm  ~  Out of the Gold trade now, I’ve managed +51 pips. I have taken a screenshot of the chart a few minutes ago to send out to students who have the system.

15:40pm  ~  Back from lunch and some shopping now – I’m going to watch some charts while I get on with some more emails.

16:15pm  ~  There may well be a UTB set-up developing on my  Brent Oil chart.

16:25pm  ~  I’m in a ‘short’ position on Brent. Stop loss is 35 pips.

19:35pm  ~  We’re off out very soon, so I’ve come out of my only trade of the evening. It came up slightly short of the 35 pip target but it’s managed 29 pips and the score for the day is at +80 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 21st May 2014

07:05am  ~  Back last night from a long weekend away and I shall be around the house today catching up on emails and Skype calls and also watching a few charts as well. There is talk of a tennis match this afternoon but not confirmed yet.

Looking at the charts a few minutes ago I can see that both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P500 had a generally session yesterday, with the latter stalling again at the 1900 level last week and no good corporate news to enable a push above this resistance point. We have seen in the past that when the Dow has hit its present level in the past month it has attracted buyers back into the market, so we may see a bounce back up after losing over 130 points yesterday. The Gold price is till looking for some direction, it remained under $1,300 again yesterday as commodity traders await the minutes from last months Fed meeting later today. These minutes should have a big impact on the precious metal as details of how Janet Yellen may change monetary stimulus in the future should be revealed, it closed up $2 at $1,295. Oil values continue to be affected by troubles in Libya, their oil fields are still closed and this resulted in the July WTI Crude contract finishing up 22 cents at $102.33 yesterday.

22:55pm  ~  Nothing to report with regard to trading, there’s been a family emergency which has kept me busy all day and I’ve only just returned home.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 16th May 2014

09:15am  ~  A relaxed start for me today as we were up very late last night/early this morning playing cards.  A group of us are having a cycle ride over to the coast at Bradwell-On-Sea shortly, a round trip of 52 miles so I shall not be around this morning but should be back after lunchtime.

If you were in the markets yesterday you could not have failed to see that equities took a bashing – the U.S. Dow Jones 30 ended down 167 pips at 16447 and the S&P500 had similiar fall although there was some limited buying late in the session. In London the FTSE100 hit an all time high close to 6900 in early trading but bearish sentiment in the U.S. dragged it back down by lunchtime.  Disappointing earnings from Walmart and mixed data are being held responsible for the fall in U.S. equities but there is also technical reasons as we saw a spinning top reversal candle on the daily chart earlier in the week right at a major resistance level.

Stronger initial jobless claims in America caused Gold to adopt a bearish pose in early trading yesterday – fewer claim applicants for the prior week hurt its value by removing the ‘safe haven’ appeal. Poor data later on in the day failed to reverse the trend and Gold closed down $9 at $1,296.  Looking at the daily chart it would seem that the price is now firmly heading towards the $1275 support level over the next week or so.

15:35pm  ~  Just got back from the ride, one of the group had a breakdown, so it’s taken longer than it should have.  Time for lunch and I’ll have a quick look at the S&P500 chart at 5pm for a short while to see if there’s any set-ups to take advantage of before we’re off for a long weekend break.

18:10pm  ~  Been watching the S&P500 chart for an hour now but nothing to report, so switching it off and we’re going now, be back on Tuesday around midday.  Another profitable week on the markets – my score has come in at +87 pips.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 15th May 2014

08:30am  ~  A late start for me today, I’ve got a few hours here in the study replying to emails and chatting to some budding traders over Skype and then I am off later this morning for a tour of the Rolls Royce factory at Goodwood in Surrey.

Looking at my daily charts this morning it can be seen the the U.S. markets seem to have topped out, Tuesday’s session formed a small spinning top and yesterday we had a generally bearish market due to traders booking profits amid fears that Ukraine is slipping into civil war together with a sharp drop in US 10 year bond yields to a 6 month low.  This fall in yields suggests that bond traders don’t share the dwindling optimism of equity market investors about the strength of any US economic recovery and this sparked the profit-taking during yesterday’s session.

Oil prices were higher in trading yesterday, as a decline in the inventory at Cushing drove the market up. Despite a 900,000 barrel increase in the overall oil stockpiles, the draw downs at the Cushing storage facility was perceived to be more important to traders and as a result US crude rose $1.11 to end at $101.70.  As expected, Gold had a bullish  day yesterday as it benefitted from the decline of equity markets. This inverse relationship was clear to see yesterday as investors moved their money from risk assets to a safer home. Gold is now at a one week high and investors will be looking to see how the situation in the Ukraine develops, it finished the session up $9 at $1,305.

09:50am  ~  I was not planning on doing any trading this morning as I’m off soon but I have just spotted a possible UTB pattern on my Brent Oil chart – I will get in for a quick trade if the price goes up slightly.

10:15am  ~  Currently in a ‘long’ position I’ve just mentioned. Stop loss 27 pips.

10:45am  ~  The trade is currently hovering around break even, and I am now leaving for Goodwood so I have set my stop loss at minus ten pips to give the position a bit of room and profit at +27 pips.

17:10pm  ~  Back home in Chelmsford from a nice day out, so I shall switch on my S&P500 chart and see if there’s any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups in the next few hours before some friends arrive for  a barbeque and poker evening.

17:35pm  ~  I am currently in a ‘long’ position with one of my evening strategies in the “Trade With A Day Job” manual 2  -  the stop loss is 21 pips. News on my earlier Brent Oil trade is that it was stopped out at minus 10 pips.

18:05pm  ~ Friends arriving earlier than I thought so I am out of my S&P position with a +31 pip profit.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES (+21 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 14th May 2014

07:55am   ~   The builders have gone so it’s going to be a nice quiet day at home for me, except for a cycle ride this morning. I will report back later if I manage to do any trading.

The markets in Europe yesterday proved resilient and reached towards new highs and the Dow Jones 30 index kicked off well but could not sustain the new levels it had reached in early trading, although it did end 20 pips up at 16715.  Although the Ukrainian situation together with weak data from China should have put a dampener on the markets it seems that the bulls are just waiting for a bit of slightly good news and buying spree will ensue – or are we seeing a ‘sucker’s rally’ similiar to previous occasions this year ?  Although the S&P500 did move up slightly overall yesterday, reaching a new high, it was stuck in a very tight range that I attempted to trade last night, giving the impression that there was no real enthusiasm for a sustained bull trend (I did manage a very small profit)    The U.S. WTI Crude Oil price rose for the third straight day yesterday on the back of a report which that showed supplies shrank at the US’s largest storage hub. There was also no real troubling geopolitical news to affect the price so overall the WTI price gained just over a dollar to finish at $101.70 a barrel and UK Brent Oil also had a good day with traders very active in the market.  Gold was down $3 to $1294 in trading yesterday which strengthens the theory that investors are pulling out of this safe-haven metal to perhaps get back into equities.

09:50pm  ~  Back from a cycle ride over to Halesworth so I’m in the study now to do some chart watching, emails and a few Skype calls.

11:10am  ~  It’s been quite quiet on the charts I’ve been watching but it looks like a possible ‘long’ on my Gold chart.

11:25am  ~  The Gold price has risen sufficiently to put me into a trendFX trade. The stop loss is a heady 11 pips.

12:00 Midday  ~  It’s all kicking off –  I am now also in a ‘short’ position on my Brent Oil chart with a stop loss of 23 pips.

12:30pm  ~  My Brent trade has just been stopped out at -23 pips but my other position is still going along nicely.

13:30pm  ~  I am off for a lunch at the Lord Nelson so I have closed off my Gold trade at +75 pips.  The U.S. trading session is just getting going so there maybe some volatility, so I would rather close the trade rather than set an order to close later.  I have just taken a screenshot of my chart at the closing level which I’ll send over to students this afternoon.

16:05pm  ~  I’m back home after a rather long lunch-hour and I shall sit down at 5pm to see if there are any trade set-ups to take advantage of.

19:45pm  ~  Not much happening on my S&P500 chart and as there’s some people coming round for supper soon so this laptop is being turned off and I’m going to get the barbeque going.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES (+52 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 13th May 2014

06:55am  ~  An early start for me today as I have the builders in again all of today and they’re arriving in 5 minutes expecting tea. Once again I shall be assisting them on and off during the day, with some emailing and chart watching inbetween.  There is clay-pigeon shooting at the farm up the road this afternoon if I can find the time plus a cycle ride at some stage.

Despite weak Chinese data and an escalating situation in Ukraine, the U.S. indices posted another high yesterday which seems to be confounding traders at the moment – as there was no significant volume for the bullish move at the end of the U.S. session. The Dow Jones finished up 112 at 16695 and the S&P500 hit resistance during after-hours trading that was last seen at the beginning of April. European equities are lagging slightly behind, having not quite reached their all-time highs but should open ahead this morning following a strong session in Asia overnight.  The theory behind the rise in the price of US crude oil yesterday seems to be speculation that supplies declined for a second week in America.  Oil traders will also keep a close eye on China’s industrial production today – higher numbers will see increased demand from the world’s second largest consumer – June’s contract was up about 60 cents to $100.59 at close of play yesterday. Gold had a mixed day on the market on Monday, it was up due to the |Ukraine situation but also had bearish pressure because of weak demand in China, and is now stuck in a narrow trading range, but still wide enough for canny traders to make money from the limited movement.

08:30am  ~  I can see a possible trade setting up on my Brent Oil chart, so I shall watch it for the next 10 minutes or so to see what happens as I’m sitting here doing emails as well.

08:45am  ~  I am in the market with a ‘short’ trade – my stop loss is 15 pips.

10:45am  ~  The trade has just been stopped out at minus 15 pips.

11:05am  ~  Just spotted another opportunity and I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart with a 16 pip stop loss.  It is a set-up from my trendFX “Extra” manual.

12:35pm  ~  I am off out now to lunch so I’ve closed off my Gold trade – it’s given me +30 pips.

18:20pm  ~  No time to have a cycle ride today but I’ve just got back from an afternoon on the farm clay-pigeon shooting so I will now switch on my charts for an hour or so to see if there are any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups for me to take advantage of.

18:30pm  ~  Crikey – what an unexciting chart !  The S&P500 is stuck in a narrow range at the moment, not much to get worked up about at all.

18:55pm  ~  Despite the small range on the S&P I am in a ‘long’ position now with a stop loss of just 14 pips – we are off out to the Lord Nelson with the builders shortly so I anticipate a quick trade.

20:00pm  ~  I really have to go now, so I’ve closed my S&P trade off at +10 pips.

Daily Target Reached ?  YES  (+25 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 12th May 2014

07:55am  ~  Unusually I am at home here in Southwold on a Monday after a weekend of building work constructing an outside cooking/dining area and I have another two days of assisting a motley bunch of tradesmen. Although I enjoy watching charts it’s good to do some physical work now and then as a contrast.  I shall get down to some emailing later this morning plus I have 4 Skype calls with budding traders before lunchtime.

Looking at markets for last week, the Dow Jones managed to close at an all time high on Friday going up 32 pips to 16583. It was a real up and down last day of trading for the week but in the end the bulls emerged ahead. The S&P500 also finished slightly ahead although it is some way off recent highs and looking at the daily chart it would seem that it’s going to make another assault on the 1890 level where it has failed to move above since February despite numerous attempts. As the earnings season is winding down now, traders will have to look for other reasons to be in the market, so emphasis may concentrate back on the Ukraine issue, which brings us onto the Oil price. As has been the norm recently, energy markets are being heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, mainly in Eastern Europe. Markets are trading slightly higher on fresh news that a referendum held in the East of Ukraine to join Russia appeared victorious. Previously, oil had weakened on dollar strength and the June contract is down 27 cents at $99.99 on Friday’s close.

13:10pm  ~  Just off for lunch – I have glanced at some charts at various points this morning and there’s nothing much happening so far.

17:00pm  ~  The builders have all disappeared to the Lord Nelson for the evening but I’m going to sit down and watch my S&P500 chart to see if any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups pop up.

17:55pm  ~  I am now in a ‘long’ position on the S&P – the stop loss is 11 pips.

18:10pm  ~  That trade is now defunct, it’s been stopped out at minus 11 pips. I shall carry on watching the chart while I do some emailing.

19:45pm  ~  I have now switched off my chart and going out for the evening – here’s been no more trade opportunities

 Daily Target Reached ?  NO  (-11 pips)

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 9th May 2014

08:10am  ~  Off out for an hour’s cycle ride in a minute and then back here in the study for the morning to do some emailing and also watch a few charts.  If the weather stays dry I have a tennis match after lunch.

You can see from looking at the S&P500 and Dow Jones charts that there was an initial rally on the open yesterday but again technologies shares did the damage, reversing the bullish trend with the DJ30 ending just 26 points up at 16,549. With the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen sending out mixed signals and mentioning on one hand the need to spur economic growth but on the other hand cutting the asset buying programme, traders are having a problem establishing a firm direction to head towards.  The S&P yet again hit a ceiling around 1891 yesterday, there does not seem enough good reasons to go above that level at the moment, perhaps once the problems in Ukraine settle down a new wave of optimism will engulf investors ?  Gold experienced a narrow trading range yesterday mainly due to Yellen’s measured (& balanced) speech but looking at the daily chart there still seems to be more downside available before the price reaches the established support around $1286

10:35am  ~  I have been back home for a short while and nothing’s come up yet on my charts.

11:15am  ~  Just got into the market with a ‘short’ position on my Brent Oil chart – the stop loss is 33 pips which will be my target as I’m off for lunch soon. It is another  UTB set-up from my “Any-Time” collection.

13:20pm  ~  I am off out for something to eat at Lord Nelson in a minute and my Brent trade is doing ok but not really advanced downwards enough at the moment, so I’ve tightened up the stop and set the target at 33 pips.

15:05pm  ~  Just got back home and I can see my earlier Brent Oil trade has been closed off at +33 pips. Off for the tennis match now.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 8th May 2014

07:20am  ~  Another early start for me today, I shall be out all morning playing around at North Weald Aerodrome then back here at home after lunch.

The markets here in Europe will open flat this morning while traders wait for news from the ECB and Bank Of England with regard to interest rates together with mark Carney’s thoughts on his asset buying programme. Traders in the U.S. are not immune as Fed Chairman Janet Yellen is being questioned regarding the economic outlook for her country, she will start giving evidence right on the markets open at 2:30pm UK time so there will probably be a volatile start at the NYSE.  Equity markets as a whole clawed back some of Tuesday’s losses yesterday but there still seems to be a ceiling to their upward movement, the troubles in the Ukraine are weighing heavily on investors optimism – although Yellen’s comments yesterday regarding the fact that the US must concentrate on growth in the face of lingering issues such as inflation and employment gave the Dow Jones a 94 point boost.

Gold traders took the positives from Yellen’s speech yesterday when she spoke of “sufficient underlying strength” and this gave reason for them to push gold prices down $18 to around $1290 as the demand for safe haven assets looks less popular in the short term.

15:05pm  ~  I’ve just got home and will be back in front of my charts at 5 o’clock to watch for “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups.

17:20pm  ~  There maybe a trade coming up in a few minutes – if the S&P moves down a few pips.

17:45pm  ~  Well, I’ve been in the aforementioned trade for a while now and at last the price is beginning to start moving south as I presumed.

18:55pm  ~  There’s no stopping the movement on the S&P500 at the moment, so I am still in my position.

19:50pm  ~   We are off out for the evening very soon so I am now out of the market. The S&P500 has retreated back to the session opening level after a very volatile start, which is good news for me as I’ve bagged a +132 pip profit.

 

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 7th May 2014

07:25am  ~  An early start for me this morning, I am off on a cycle ride in a minute with a bunch of friends and then back to some emailing and Skype calls upto lunchtime.  I shall also watch a few charts from time to time while I’m here in the study so I will report back later with any trading news.

I have been away in Cornwall since Friday and got back yesterday afternoon but I did manage to have a quick ‘short’ trade on the S&P500 later in the day using my “Trade With A Day Job” strategy – I came away with a +53 pip profit. The actual trade was a combination of two trading set-ups and when this occurs, it always gives new traders confidence to get into the market without hesitation.

Although there seemed to be continued improvement in some of the broader economic data from across Europe, with Italy and Spain in particular standing out, with some better than expected numbers this good news got lost yesterday due to the concerns about the deteriorating situation in the Ukraine, as fears grow of a civil war, as well as disappointment about the prospects for company earnings growth in a global economy that the OECD saw fit to downgrade its expectations for yesterday and With Chinese data showing no signs of a marked improvement the catalysts for further gains in world markets seem to be becoming more difficult to find. All this resulted in both of the major U.S. indices posting negative numbers by the end of the session and the sharp bearish move in the S&P500 was highlighted by a good trading opportunity with my “evening” strategy as you will have read above.  With a fall in equities you would expect investors to rush to safe-haven commodities but this did not happen with Gold yesterday, it formed a spinning top reversal candle after a narrow trading range and ended just a few dollars down on the day.

10:20am  ~  I am back from a wet 27 mile cycle ride so it’s time to sit down here in the study and get on with some emails + some chart watching as well.

11:55am  ~  It has been quite a quiet morning on my charts but there does seem to be a UTB pattern setting up on the  Gold chart – more news soon…..

12:40pm  ~  The UTB pattern is one of the seven strategies from my “Any-Time” system manual and the ‘short’ trade I mentioned earlier has now triggered. I have a stop-loss of 24 pips so that will be the first target.

13:10pm  ~  The Gold prices has gone (down) through my 1st target and is still going strong looking at the price-action at the moment.

13:30pm  ~  I am now out of the Gold trade – for three reasons. Firstly the U.S. pre-market has just got going so there maybe some surprise movements over the next 30 minutes plus the profit achieved is sufficient – but more importantly it’s time for my pub lunch.  The trade gave me +73 pips.

15:45pm  ~  Back home now but off out soon, I should be back by 7 o’clock – ish.

19:10pm  ~   Just looking at my S&P500 chart for any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups.

19:30pm  ~  Well that was quick – I got into a ‘short’ position a few minutes ago and as quickly I was stopped out !  Score so far minus 11 pips.

20:30pm  ~  Now in a second trade – this time long with a 24 pip stop loss.

21:00pm  ~  The U.S. market is now closing so I’m out of my 2nd trade – I’ve managed +50 pips.