08:55am CET (07:55 UK time)  ~  After yesterday’s disaster with the broadband, it has now returned – but on a day when I shall be doing no trading as it’s Non Farm Payroll day once again. Instead I shall be emailing, Skyping and generally having a relaxing time, but I will be out on a cycle ride at some stage this morning as well.

A glance at any chart will tell you that Mario Draghi and the ECB’s decision yesterday to lower the deposit rate to minus 0.1% caused some volatile moves,  it’s the first central bank to use negative rates. In addition, the benchmark interest rate for the EU was dropped from 0.25% down to 0.15% and the initial reaction was a sharp fall in EUR/USD although this was short lived. Speculation that these measures would improve the economy and attract investments reversed the daily trend pushing the euro back up – it ended 61 pips higher at 1.3660.   On the back of this news the U.S. Dow Jones 30 rose 102 pips to 16,832 another all time high for the index – the S&P500 had a similiar bullish stance, ending at 1940.6, a rise of 125 pips that occurred mainly in early trading.  Gold investors seemed to enjoy the news as well, the generally bearish trend of the last six weeks has been temporarily halted and the yellow metal ended up $9 at $1253.2

08:35am (CET)  ~  Hopefully the broadband out here is going to be more reliable today, it was only on for an hour or so yesterday resulting in no trading or Skyping and very little emailing.  I did have a look at some charts late last night and noticed that I didn’t miss much.  I do not expect much to be happening with regard to price movements on the charts I regularly watch but I will glance at them from time time while I’m here in my makeshift study – the builders should get my proper one finished by the end of next week. It’s back to the UK for us early next week as I have a couple of meetings on Tuesday so I’ll also book some flights, internet willing.

As I’ve mentioned yesterday, traders are sitting on their hands – marking time until the Bank Of England and European Central Bank announce their rates today and then there’s the U.S. employment numbers tomorrow. Expectations are for the ECB to cut the already paltry rate even further (down to a tenth of one percent) and maybe even into  negative numbers.  The Frankfurt-based institution is also widely expected to cut the rate it pays on deposits from the current rate of zero to around 0.1% meaning it would charge them to hold money on deposit.  Although many commentators agree that the EU has passed its crisis phase, there are concerns of a lengthy period of deflation, marked by falling wages and shop prices – inflation in the zone is currently running at just 0.5% well below the ECB’s target of 2%.

Despite a larger drop in weekly crude inventories than was expected, the overall supplies remained near record high levels which was seen as a sign of declining oil demand so this pushed the WTI crude prices 39 cents lower to $102.40 a barrel. Gold is still out of favour with investors as all eyes are on the high level of equities and yet again yesterday it was the case as it tried unsuccessfully to move above the psychologically important $1250.00  -  it  finished down $1.2 at $1243.6.

09:10am  ~  Off for a cycle ride with a neighbour, we’re taking a track across and over the mountain that’s behind the house rather than a road route.

11:05am  ~  Back home now, doing some emails and chart watching – as expected the markets are fairly flat in the run-up to BOE & ECB rate announcements in the next few hours.  Having said that, the Gold price seems to be rising gradually so there may be a quick trade there before lunchtime.

13:00pm  ~  The Gold price has risen sufficiently for a trendFX trade to be triggered, I am in the market ‘long’ with a 14 pip stop loss.

13:30pm  ~ The trade hit it’s target a few minutes ago, so I am out with +14 pips.  There’s going to be a fairly sizeable reaction I should imagine to the ECB rate announcement in 15 minutes so it would be foolhardy to still be a position then.

23:05pm  ~  I have been out for the afternoon but when I got back here at 6pm there was no broadband again, so no trading for me this evening.

09:15am (CET)  ~  After being out for most of yesterday, today is going to be spent at home, concentrating on emails, Skype calls, some chart watching and keeping the builders in check. I am also out for a cycle ride with a friend this morning although not sure where we’re off to yet.

The markets are still treading water with nobody in a big rush to commit to any particular kind of move, waiting for central bank and employment news from today onwards. The ECB are under pressure to cut rates to stimulate some growth in the European Union and optimistic U.S. jobs news should get traders back into action by the end of the week. U.S. indices had a mainly neutral trading session yesterday, still marking time near all time highs, seemingly waiting for some sort of concrete excuse to go either long or short, nobody can earn any money with the markets acting so indecisively, although price-action on my daily charts does suggest some bullish momentum gathering pace.

A larger than expected rise for U.S. factory orders kept demand for crude oil up together with reported supplies at Cushing falling as the southern leg of the Keystone pipeline started transporting oil to the Gulf Coast refineries meant that the WTI Crude price rose 39 cents yesterday to end at $102.83.   After moving down for seven straight days, Gold prices rose slightly to £1243.9, partly on the back of a small drop in  equity markets together with some bargain hunting from commodity traders. A reversal candle  formed on the daily chart, so a move above the $1248 level today may see a move upwards nearer its moving averages.

09:55am  ~  Just had a look at my inbox and I’ve had over 600 replies to my “Win A Trading System“ competition, so I shall be kept quite busy for the next day or so looking through the messages – thank you to everyone who has responded so far. If you’ve not received details of the contest, just email me for more information.

22:10pm  ~  The broadband here has been off for most of the day but looking at my charts 5 minutes ago assures me I’ve not missed out on much. Most market participants are sitting on their hands waiting for Central Bank and U.S. employment news

09:50am (CET)  ~  We were attending a friend’s party over the weekend in Playa d’en Bossa in Ibiza, so there was no trading for me yesterday as we only arrived back here a few hours ago.  It’s going to be a fairly chilled out day for me, but I may look at some charts later on.

The main indices ended May on a high, with the S&P500 having it’s fourth consecutive bullish month, although yesterday’s trading has formed a reversal candle on the daily charts, so watch out for some selling opportunities below the 1915 level.  The Dow Jones 30 has also reached record highs, having surpassed the mid-May high during intra-day  trading yesterday. We can expect subdued trading until central bank announcements later in the week, and we also have U.S. employment figures out on  Friday which should show an increase of over 200,000 jobs for May. Over in London the FTSE100 index has failed to get over the 6890 resistance hurdle and had another mixed days trading, forming another reversal candle on my daily chart, watch out for shorts around 6840 today.

Crude oil prices ended down 44 cents at at $102.46 a barrel at yesterday’s close after reports that an oil exports terminal in Libya is about to be reopened. Also, China’s manufacturing came in lower than anticipated which helped keep a lid on any bullish sentiment.  As the equity markets are hovering around all time highs, the demand for Gold deteriorated again yesterday pushing its price even lower to $1243.3 equating to a $7 loss for the day. The choice of alternative investments is not very popular at the moment with stock markets being so bullish.  There is solid support at $1180 which is quite a drop from the current level.

19:25pm  (CET) ~  Quick catch-up on my day, I did not manage to watch any charts during the day today, I ended up going shopping in Palma instead. I have been watching my S&P500 chart for the last hour however, but nothing much happening with regard to the “Trade With A Day Job” system so I am closing off this laptop and going out for the evening

07:35am  CET (06:35 UK time)  ~  Once again I shall be assisting the builders today but there will also be some chart watching while I’m here in my makeshift study catching up on emails this morning.

Despite a bigger than expected contraction for the US economy in the first quarter, it dropped 1% against forecast for 0.5%, the Dow Jones 30 came in 43 pips ahead to finish at 16,692. It would seem that investors remained optimistic as the overall picture indicates improvement and were ready to overlook this apparently one off set of numbers. The S&P500 is now firmly in higher territory after 8 days of generally bullish movements, so we may see some profit-taking at the end of the week, it ended the day 10 pips up and 1920. Falling Crude Oil supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma have pushed the WTI prices 45 cents higher yesterday to $103.51 a barrel, there does seem to be some small support at $102.50 together with higher equity values should drive the price higher in the short term.

Gold lost another $3 yesterday, mainly in early trading, ending the day at $1255.2 as investors funds are diverted to the bullish equity markets. The previous support at $1275 has now been firmly broken, so it would seem that $1200 is the next stopping off point.

09:15am  ~  Needed outside so trading/emails postponed for the morning.

12:05pm  ~  Just come in to have a quick look at some charts and a Brent Oil ‘short’ trade triggered a little while ago, but as there’s been a retrace I’ve got in at a slightly better price.  I’ll have to set-up a stop as I can’t really sit and watch the chart as I usually do as I’m still required outside, the stop-loss is 22 pips.

16:00pm  ~  My Brent trade is still doing ok.

16:55pm  ~  Just popped in to check the chart and as the trade was at +41 pip profit, I’ve closed it off.

18:40pm  ~ Back inside now for the evening and while I cook some supper for friends that’ll be over in an hour or so I’m going to watch the S&P500 to see if there’s any “Trade With A Day Job” set-ups.

19:50pm  ~  I am in a ‘long’ position on the S&P. Stop loss is 16 pips.

20:50pm  (19:50pm UK )~  Things are getting very busy here now, so I’m out of the market to concentrate on other things.  The trade ended at +35 pips.

08:30am  ~  There is a large wooden barn frame to erect today so I shall be in and out of the house today helping the builders but watching some charts when I can. I have 4 Skype calls as well, mainly this afternoon.

The German Dax 30 failed to reach the significant 10,000 level and along with the U.S. equity market, it had a generally bearish day yesterday. The S&P500 formed a reversal candle on the daily chart, so we may have some more profit-taking for the rest of the week in the run-up to the end of the month and the Dow Jones 30′s decline was mainly blamed on the retailers – it finished down 29 points at 16,649.

A stronger US dollar combined with a bearish stock market yesterday caused the WTI Crude price to fall by just over a dollar yesterday to $103.08 a barrel. there also seems to be a large oil stock and the forecast of a drop in GDP has kept prices in check, the short term trend is now down. Gold is now approaching the $1250 level after a couple of bearish sessions, so we could expect some bargain hunters around today, there may be some short-term profit opportunities to go ‘Long’ with the right set-ups.

18:10pm  ~  Been outdoors all day so it’s nice to be back inside with a very cold beer and an S&P500 chart. I’ll report back later if there’s any trades.

Midnight  ~  I ended up having one trade earlier, it kicked off just before 8pm (7pm UK time) and I closed the position off right on the U.S. session close with a +43 pip profit.

08:45am CET  (07:45am UK time)  ~  Another day of helping the builders but I will fit in some chart watching/emailing/cycling during the day.  It looks like another hot one so I shall go out for a ride before the sun gets too high in the sky.

Even though there is dissent in Europe regarding the EU, German traders seem to be looking for reasons to push the Dax upto the 10,000 level, yesterday saw its third bullish day in a row. Many see the Germans as the main benefactors of the EU club, and they have the most to lose if the whole experiment is disbanded, so traders are obviously looking elsewhere for reasons to be optimistic. Across the Atlantic there was an unexpected rise in the Durable Goods numbers, and this pushed the Dow Jones index 26 pips higher at the close at 16682 – the 16700 level is now firmly in investors eyes.

If you were following my trading yesterday, you’ll have noticed I joined in on the bearish movement on the Gold chart. There was no real reason for the prolonged selling apart from investors coming out of ‘safe-haven’ commodities and back into equities – the S&P500 also had a good run-up, ending the session around 1912, with Facebook shares up 3.5% and Apple gaining nearly 2%.  Traders expectations for large crude oil inventories sent WTI Crude prices 10 cents lower yesterday to close at $104.17 a barrel, and investors moving into equities have also stunted any bullish momentum.

10:55am  ~  Got back from a quick ride out along the Ma-10 (a 35km round trip)  10 minutes ago and I’ve just switched on my collection of charts to see what’s happening in the markets. A long trade on the S&P500 was triggered a short while ago but I’ve just been able to get into a position at a better level with a small 17 pip stop loss. It’s a trendFX strategy-one set-up.

12:40pm  ~  Off to lunch now, so I’ve taken this opportunity to get out of the S&P trade. It’s ended up at +29 pips. I have mucked-in with the work as a labourer but probably watched the charts for too long.

15:05pm  ~  Back from a typical long Spanish lunch – it’s now time to finally help the guys outside, so no charts for me this afternoon…..

18:00pm  ~  Going to watch my charts for a few hours before we’re out for the evening.

19:45pm  ~  Nothing for me to get excited about on the S&P500 chart, so I am switching this laptop off and going for a shave/shower/shampoo…….

08:55am CET (07:55 UK time)  ~  It’s bright sunshine outside this morning, so I am off for a cycle ride in a few minutes down to Sa Pobla and then it’s back here to get going with renovations with some British builders that have come over here with me.  I shall also be watching some charts during the day and getting on with emails as well.

Markets will be busier today after traders in the UK get back to their desks after the bank holiday yesterday.  Over in America, the S&P500 is still up around record levels but daily trading ranges recently have been very limited and this usually points towards a big move soon. This time last year this index and the Dow Jones 30 were on their way down after a fairly good bullish run, so will we see that old adage ‘ Sell In May And Go Away’ come true once again ?  The French CAC40 and Germany’s Dax30 are also at record levels after yesterday’s sessions so keep a keen eye out for any new support levels that establish themselves over the next few weeks or maybe traders will see that these levels are just unsustainable without any prolonged good economic news, so markets will emulate last year’s May fall.

Expected profit-taking in the U.S. Crude Oil markets due to elevated levels has not occurred over the last few sessions, but the price is still staying stubbornly below the resistance at $105, yesterday’s trading resulted in a small 15 cent drop to $104.19.  Gold is now having problems getting above the psychologically important $1300 level, with the 20 period moving average giving the price a useful resistance line on the daily chart – more moves down today ?

10:40am (CET)  ~  I am back and doing some email and chart watching but nothing much happening on the markets at the moment.

11:50am  ~  Looks like a possible ‘short’ opportunity on my Gold chart, the price has been in a narrow band and getting ready for a potential breakout.

12:15pm  ~  I am in a Gold trade using a trendFX set-up, my stop loss is just 14 pips.

14:25pm  ~  Still in the trade and as we have the U.S. trading session start soon I have set-up a stop at +30 pips to protect some of my profits.

15:45pm  ~  The Gold price is still falling and I’m still in the market after the U.S. open volatility, so I’ll wait and see how far it will continue to slide.

16:40pm  ~  I have just come out of my Gold position as I need to help the guys outside for a few hours.  The price has dropped quite dramatically in the past few hours so I’m happy with the score, I have managed +166 pips.  Just taken a screenshot of my chart so I can email students details of the trade (set-up/entry/exit etc.)

23:05pm  ~  I got back inside just after 7pm and did have a quick evening trade with my “Trade With A Day Job” strategy.  I managed +23pips when I came out of the market at 21:20pm

Agriculture market and international trade research includes monitoring markets and developing economic models as tools to support policy and international trade. Growing global populations, increasing food and fiber demand and climate change require agricultural productivity to increase significantly in the next 50 years or so to ensure food security on a sustainable basis, for this, farmers will need to get more familiar with new technologies and basic services that offer reliable conveyor belt repair in order to keep up with the high demand. The dynamic development of agricultural markets requires permanent monitoring and prospective analysis.

Additionally a macroeconomic understanding of global food prices is needed to develop long-term policy responses to market volatility such as possible reserve stocking or food aid for emergencies situations of price spikes due to specific supply and demand (climate/political) disruptions in the markets. Researchers in the unit work on these issues using a modelling approach that is directly linked with market developments through consultation with stakeholders in agribusinesses and the related value chains and institutions at all levels from farmers to consumers.

This includes developing the activities related to the Global Open Data Infrastructure for food and agricultural commodities to improve the accessibility and quality of data and statistics on the production and consumption of food and feedstuffs for decision-makers involved in the production and trade chain. This activity is carried out in collaboration with several international partners and data producers and users across the globe including the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN-FAO in Rome; the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington D.C. USA – IFPRI and others in other countries under the OECD-DSD.

Agricultural market developments are at the heart of policy debates, particularly since the increasing food prices and short term price fluctuations of commodity prices. Decisions taken at a national level have implications for the European Community’s Common External Trade Policy and the Global Trading System in general through the mechanisms at the WTO and regional free trade areas but also bilaterally between countries.

The outlook for agricultural markets and income is based on a specific set of assumptions regarding the future economic, market and policy environment. Projections of these factors then determine how many bushels of corn or soybeans are needed to meet that forecast demand and what the future prices for those commodities will be over time. This outlook informs the objectives of price risk management programs and provides the basis for the formation of crop marketing plans. In general the grain market revenue is derived by subtracting expenses from the market price received for a commodity’s production and/or harvest and delivery to a central location.

09:10am  ~  Nice late start for me today, I have a some ‘admin’ to catch-up on here in the study this morning and then we’re flying off to Majorca for a couple of weeks around midday.

Despite worse than expected U.S. jobseekers numbers both the S&P500 and Dow Jones indices managed to close up for the second day in a row. I was watching my S&P chart last night when it came up against a persistent resistance just shy of the 1900 level. Over here in Europe, traders will be cautious ahead of European and Ukrainian election results, so there’s not expected to be any fireworks in the market ahead of the bank holiday weekend.

The bullish run-up for US crude oil seems to have come to a halt for the time being. After hitting a one month high on Wednesday, traders realised the market may be priced a bit high. There was not a reason in particular to justify the drop; data has been fairly good, it was probably some short-term profit taking on contracts. The July contract was down 33 cents to $103.74. Gold initially spiked around $10 higher after poor initial U.S. jobless claims more than 10 dollars higher but then settled down after better Manufacturing and Housing data. It closed up $1 at $1,294.

11:15am  ~  All finished here in the study and nothing to report regarding the charts, so I am packing away and we’re off in half an hour to Biggin Hill Aerodrome.