08:05am CET (07:05 UK time)  ~  A nice lazy day here at home today apart from a cycle ride with my neighbour this morning, so I’ll report back later with any trades I find.

U.S. markets took a dive as soon as they opened yesterday, mainly on continued crude price woes which in turn put pressure on oil companies although the Dow Jones 30 did stage a small recovery at the end to finish just 96 points down at 17,640. Goldman Sachs issued a note yesterday that said crude oil prices needed to drop to $40 a barrel to re-balance the market and this was partly to blame for the new low of $45.72 for WTI Crude by last night’s close. Brent Crude was also down, finishing at $47.15 and after the Asian session overnight is trading further down at $46.10 as I write this.  There is UK inflation data out this morning which is expected to show a 12-year low fuelling speculation of deflation spreading further across the world although traders may see it positively as it should also delay the Bank of England’s rate rise until later in 2015.  The German Dax 30 had a positive day yesterday even though the Greek elections are getting nearer with the anti austerity Syriza Party leading its rivals in the polls, traders feel that the ECB’s quantitative easing programme is just around the corner – a mood of optimism is sweeping the country.

Gold is still nudging towards the $1238 resistance level and had another positive session yesterday, it was up over $10 to $1233.20 as investors once again seek some safety from worries of deflation and plunging oil prices. In overnight trading the price has already hit the resistance level so today’s session will show if traders have the stomach to push the price towards the next resistance at $1255.

Market Close Monday 12th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -96.53 @ 17,640.84  S&P 500  -16.55 @ 2,028.26  NASDAQ  -43.31 @ 4,169.97  FTSE 100  +0.28 @ 6,501.42  UK AIM  +0.47 @ 703.92  DAX 30  +133.40 @ 9,781.90  CAC 40  +49.17 @ 4,228.24  IBEX  +78.50 @ 9,797.50   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -110.02 @ 17,087.71  Hang Seng (currently)  +176.73 @ 24,203.19

All times below are CET (GMT + 1hr)

08:10am  ~  While I was writing the market update above I was checking the chart for yesterday’s movement and noticed a trendFX trade setting up on my Gold chart, so I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 35 pip stop loss.

09:55am  ~  Neighbour Kurt has arrived for cycle ride so I’ve brought the stop loss on my Gold trade up to minus 10 pips but left the ‘take-profit’ level open at the moment to see what happens when I get back in an hour or so.

11:20am  ~ Back now and the trade is sitting at +20 pips.

13:00pm  ~  The Gold chart is stuck in the doldrums for the last few hours, my position is at +24 pips.

13:20am  ~  Off out to lunch in Pollensa now plus the Gold price is really struggling to get over the $1240 level so I have just closed off my position with a +35 pip profit.

15:05pm  ~  Back home now and I can see a possible ‘long’ UTB trade setting up on my Brent Crude chart.

15:10pm  ~  The prices has risen sufficiently to trigger the trade, I have a 47 pip stop loss.

15:35pm  ~  That was quite a speedy trade – I am now out with +50 pips, the upward price momentum started to cool so I covered my stop loss and exited.

17:50pm  ~  No further trades in the last hour and we’re out for the evening in a short while so charts are off now.

08:10am CET (07:10 UK time)  ~  I have a few errands to do in Palma this morning so not sure how much chart watching I’ll be doing this morning but I will report back if I do spot any trades.

The big news in the markets on Friday was the U.S. jobs numbers, there were 252,000 more jobs added in December meaning the unemployment rate is now down to 5.6% which is the lowest rate since before the global recession kicked off in 2008.  Both main U.S. indices reacted positively to begin with the S&P 500 rising from 2053 to 2067 within the first hour of Friday’s session but it quickly fell back after traders analysed the numbers and took in the wider picture – yet again we have the ‘good news is bad news’ situation in the markets due mainly to low wage growth which ultimately drives consumer spending plus renewed worries that the growing threat of deflation in spreading across Europe.

Crude oil values have resumed their fall on the back on continued oversupply together with OPEC’s current pricing policy towards Europe and the U.S., with the WTI Crude price falling 68 cents during Friday’s session to $48.25 per barrel and the recent low at $46.82 looks like a reasonable target for this week. Over in the UK, Brent Crude hit a new low at $48.89 on Friday on the back on the WTI move down and has started the week on a negative tilt, it’s currently sitting at $49.04 as the Asian session is coming to a close.  Gold investors were given a boost on Friday as the value rose on the back of the fall in equity prices together with deflationary fears, it gained nearly $12 by the end of last week to end at $1220.50 and is up to $1227 at the moment and heading towards the next resistance at $1237.

Market Close Friday 9th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -170.50 @ 17,737.37  S&P 500  -17.33 @ 2,044.81  NASDAQ  -27.27 @ 4,213.28  FTSE 100  -68.82 @ 6,501.14  UK AIM  +3.23 @ 703.45  DAX 30  -189.11 @ 9,648.50  CAC 40  -81.12 @ 4,179.07  IBEX  -396.00 @ 9,719.00   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +30.63 @ 17,197.73  Hang Seng (currently)  +82.83 @ 24,002.78

All times below are CET (GMT +1hr)

10:50am  ~  Nothing much happening on my charts this morning as is quite usual at the beginning of the week, so I am off to Palma for a few hours.

13:55pm  ~  Been back a short while and have just got into a ‘short’ position on my Dax 30 chart – it’s a BERT set-up from my ‘Master-The-Reversal’ trading system. The stop loss is 27 pips.

15:45pm  ~  The markets have become very volatile as the U.S. session kicks off due mainly to the drop in the Crude Oil value again, and this has affected European equities as well so my Dax trade is currently sitting at +85 pips.

16:05pm  ~  Prices are still quite volatile and the markets are still falling dramatically but I’m happy with my trade performance so I am now out of the position – it has managed +162 pips.

17:20pm  ~  Switching my MT4 platform off now and finishing trading for the day as we are off out for the evening shortly.

07:10am  ~  An early start for me today, I have few hours here in the study catching up on emails and then we’re flying back to Majorca for the rest of the month just before lunchtime. No trading for me today as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day once again.

Due to the U.S. employment numbers being announced later today, we will probably see a temporary halt to the bullish trend that equities have enjoyed over the past few days, Greek election woes have been forgotten for the time being while traders concentrate on the combined good news of delayed interest rate hikes in the U.S. and impending monetary stimulus from ECB President, Mario Draghi. Both the Dow Jones and wider S&P 500 indices had a good session yesterday, both were up around 1.8% by the close last night and a move towards new highs look possible although European equities look susceptible to volatility that’s going to be caused by deflation worries and a Greek exit from the Euro. The Euro continued its slide downwards as traders expect the ECB to kick-off their money-printing programme soon, it is now at 1.1797, its lowest level for nearly ten years.

Crude Oil prices in the U.S. staged another slight rally yesterday on news that many shale oil producers will be halting production due to extraction now being unprofitable and this situation will result in a cut on production, just as the Saudis had wanted. It gained 12 cents by the close yesterday to $48.91 but in the UK Brent Crude traded sideways for most of the day and ended flat at just over $51.  Gold suffered again on rising equity values and lost nearly $3 during trading yesterday although it is still stuck in the $1150 – $1250 band that it’s been trading in since falling into it last September.

Market Close Thursday 8th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +323.35 @ 17,907.87  S&P 500  +36.24 @ 2,062.14  NASDAQ  +80.55 @ 4,240.55  FTSE 100  +150.13 @ 6,569.6  UK AIM  +6.09 @ 700.22  DAX 30  +319.43 @ 9,837.61  CAC 40  +147.46 @ 4,260.19  IBEX  +223.60 @ 10.115.00   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +30.63 @ 17,197.73  Hang Seng (currently)  +127.92 @ 23,963.45

07:45am  ~  Going to be mainly at home today so will be watching my charts on and off through the day, I will report back with any trade details.

Equity markets have largely staged a recovery during the last 24hrs after falls on Tuesday and FOMC Meeting minutes revealed last night that there’s a consensus to keep U.S. interest rates at their current low rate until at least April as there are still worries about low inflation even though the general economy is going well. Over here in Europe, Greek election worries had a day off but there are concerns over deflation after consumer prices dropped 0.2% in December which was the first fall since 2009 and this prompted a fall in the Euro against the Dollar to a new low of 1.1840, a level not seen since June 2010.

Crude Oil prices were given a slight boost yesterday when the U.S. stock situation saw a bigger than expected inventory draw and WTI Crude staged a 75 cent recovery to close at $48.76 and is largely holding up in early trading this morning. News that U.S. interest rates are staying put for a few months had investors move out of Gold and into equities so the yellow metal lost nearly $8 yesterday to finish at $1211 and overnight it has lost further ground to $1208. Any move above $1211 today may prompt a resumption of the earlier rally.

Market Close Wednesday 7th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +212.88 @ 17,584.52  S&P 500  +23.29 @ 2,025.90  NASDAQ  +49.17 @ 4,160.00  FTSE 100  +53.32 @ 6,419.83  UK AIM  -5.94 @ 694.13  DAX 30  +48.52 @ 9,518.18  CAC 40  +29.23 @ 4,112.73  IBEX  +20.30 @ 9,891.40   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +281.77 @ 17,1671.0  Hang Seng (currently)  +167.59 @ 23,848.85

09:30am  ~  Charts are very uninteresting at the moment – so I’m off for a cycle ride in the rain….

15:55pm  ~  Been watching my collection of charts every hour or so since I got back here just after 11am but there’s been nothing to get my pulse racing so I’m off into town to do some errands and back here later to trade the evening “Trade With A Day Job” Session.

19:25pm  ~  No TWADJ trades yet but I have just got into a ‘long’ S&P 500 trade using one of my trendFX set-ups.  Stop loss is a heady 26 pips.

20:40pm  ~ The S&P is starting to reverse at the end of the session so I am out with profit of +37 pips.

08:55am  ~  Nice relaxed start to the day for me this morning after a very late night here with a few friends.

There is another sea of red figures below showing that U.S. and European equities had another bearish session yesterday although trading overnight Asia has been quite optimistic with some bargain hunters keeping a lid on recent falls.  Troubles in Greece is still at the forefront of traders thoughts with the far-left Syriza party increasing their domination in the polls ahead of the election in a few weeks, if they are victorious the austerity measures that has been forced on Greece by the European Central Bank over the past year will probably be cast aside – and this may trigger the country leaving the Eurozone all together. Although Germany has already stated that the EU can cope with this departure, there are worries that other troubled countries in the zone may also make moves to leave as well, which could herald the break up of the entire economic area.

The other dominating news yesterday was the plunging price of crude oil – the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate dropped nearly $2 to end the day at almost dead-on $48 and after the overnight Asian session it is sitting even further down at $47, so it may seem as though the previous $50 support may become resistance for the rest of the week. The drop in OPEC wholesale prices to Europe and the U.S. has spurred this latest price fall together with the determination of the Saudis to break the domination of U.S. fracking which has caused a drop in crude  exports from OPEC countries across the Atlantic.

With turmoil and bearish sentiment in the equity market, there is little surprise that investors are moving across to Gold and this safe haven commodity moved nearly $17 higher during yesterday’s session to finish at $1218.9 and currently it is sitting slightly down at $1215.

Market Close Tuesday 6th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -130.01 @ 17,371.64  S&P 500  -17.97 @ 2,002.61  NASDAQ  -50.31 @ 4,110.83  FTSE 100  -50.65 @ 6,366.51  UK AIM  -4.92 @ 700.07  DAX 30  -3.50 @ 9,469.66  CAC 40  -27.86 @ 4,083.50  IBEX  -122.20 @ 9,871.10   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +2.14 @ 16,885.33  Hang Seng (currently)  +208.26 @ 23,693.67

09:50am ~ Just finished two Skype calls and had a cursory glance at my collection of charts and there’s nothing developing at the moment so I am off to get one of my cars serviced in Colchester.

21:45pm ~ No trading to report as I ended up spending the day out shopping.

07:30am ~ Happy New Year to all !

Back in the UK last night after a short Xmas holiday and ready for some trading today  –  I will report back here if I have any trade details.

Lots to report from the first big day’s trading of 2015 – and the main news was that U.S. Crude fell below the significantly important $50 level and after the bearish overnight Asian session it is still trading around the $49.55. A sell-off in equities yesterday resembled last year’s start to January, the S&P 500 fell over 370 pips as worries about a Greek exit from the Eurozone and falling oil prices kept buyers away. Although there is still a few weeks before the Greek elections, there is speculation that the radical left-wing Syriza party will leave the Eurozone if they win at the polls although an unnamed member of Angela Merkel’s government has concluded that a Greek exit is manageable as the other risky members of the EU (mainly Portugal, Italy and Spain) are better placed to withstand the shock as their banks are in a financially stronger position than 2012.

The drop in crude oil values yesterday was blamed partly on the Saudi Arabian state oil producer, Saudi Aramco, reducing prices to Europe and the U.S. to maintain market share and also force U.S. domestic shale producers to contemplate shutting down some facilities as it is becoming increasingly uneconomic to get the stuff out of the ground – and the price is also under pressure due to over-supply and falling demand due to the Asian and Eurozone slowdown. UK Brent Crude followed suit and ended almost $3 down at $53.09 and is now at $52.50 so there maybe further falls today.

Gold is benefiting from the turmoil in equity and oil markets as investors use it as a safe haven for the time being – it climbed over the significantly important $1200 level again yesterday, finishing up over $16 at $1204 and is currently higher at $1209.2

Market Close Monday 5th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -331.34 @ 17,501.65  S&P 500  -37.62 @ 2,020.58  NASDAQ  -69.27 @ 4,160.96  FTSE 100  -130.64 @ 6,417.16  UK AIM  -2.72 @ 704.99  DAX 30  -291.57 @ 9,473.16  CAC 40  -140.93 @ 4,111.36  IBEX  -357.30 @ 9,993.30   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -525.52 @ 16,883.19  Hang Seng (currently)  -272.51 @ 23,448.81

08:50am  ~  Just had a quick look at my favourite 6 charts* and there’s not much happening in the way of trading signals so I am going out for a bracing cycle ride along the beach path down towards Dunwich.   (*Email me for list)

10:05am  ~  Back now so going to watch the charts while I catch up on emails – plus I have two Skype calls in the next hour.

10:25am  ~  I have just got into a ‘long’ UTB trade on my Dax 30 chart – my stop loss is 34 pips.

11:30am  ~  Happy with the progress of my Dax trade, I am now out at +57 pips — a good start to the year’s trading.

13:40pm  ~  Not much happening on my chart at the moment so I am off for a late lunch at the Lord Nelson.

17:35pm  ~  Back indoors now so I’m going to watch my S&P 500 chart for any “Trade With A Day Job” opportunities.

18:00pm  ~  There could be a ‘short’ coming up on the S&P chart.

18:05pm  ~  I am in a ‘short’ position now with a 21 pip stop loss.

18:25pm  ~  The price on my S&P 500 chart has fallen quite well and as we have friends around soon for supper I have come out of my trade — the profit was +97 pips.

As we come to the end of another year I am looking back at my favourite charts this morning to see what they’ve been up to.  I’ll not be back trading the markets until next week but it’s nice to look back to see where they’ve gone in the last 12 months.

Probably my most favoured instrument to trade, the U.S. S&P500 index started the year with a big drop on the first day of trading in January, falling nearly 200 pips from the 2013 close level around 1852 to and not really recovering until the end of February. The low point of the year was on the 3rd of February at 1738 and a strong support was formed here and the index then went on to recover and settle into a bullish trend right up to the middle of September.  There were a few shorting opportunities along the way, most notably in the beginning of April and the last week of August but the real fall came on the 22nd of September with large daily drops most weeks until support was found once again around the 1818 level – previously seen during the end of 2013 and the early part of 2014. After that the S&P settled into an end-of-year rally which took it up to record highs which were mirrored by the smaller Dow Jones Industrial Average of top 30 U.S. companies.  The highest the S&P500 has been in the last few days is 2092 but there does not seem to be much enthusiasm for buying before the January rush so that figure will probably be the high for 2014, a rise of 240 points over the past 12 months equating to around 13%,  substantially better than most fund managers but a figure easily surpassed by most of the home traders I know.

Gold and Crude Oil have been the other big news stories of 2014 and the drop in value of Gold from the year’s high in March at $1392 was no great surprise given the fact that equity markets have done well on the back of Government intervention, so there’s been no long-term need for safe haven investments. This year’s fall in the value of Gold is all part of the long term bearish trend that kicked off at the beginning of September 2011, around the same time that the S&P500 was bouncing off a strong support level at 1075 giving traders clues that the bullish trend in equities was getting going again.

Crude Oil values have suffered since the summer this year due to a number of factors – mainly a drop in world demand, especially from Asia together with increased production capabilities in the U.S. due to their successful Fracking programme plus the fact that Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC member countries have refused to cut their own output to help prop up the price – cynics suggest they really just want to force the U.S. to stop their Fracking programme by driving the price down so far that it would be uneconomic to get the Crude out of the ground – where is the bottom though ?  The U.S. WTI Crude hit a high point in September of $113 a barrel and is sitting this morning at $53.24 a drop of over 50% – with UK Brent Crude suffering also –  I would imagine the Yes voters in Scotland are breathing a sigh of relief that they do not have to base their economic forecasts solely on the taxes from North Sea Oil any more…..

Merry Christmas to all who have followed this trading diary of mine over the last year, I hope the holiday is a relaxing one for you.

07:30am  ~  Up early this morning as I have a a couple of Skype calls with new traders in Australia in the next hour.  There’s no more trading for me for the rest of the year – I am at an end-of-year clay pigeon shoot today but I shall be replying to emails for a while this morning.

Markets were generally bullish yesterday with U.S. equities back around record levels with the largest index, the S&P 500 resting once again around the established resistance level at 2080.  Economic news out today in the form of U.S. Durable Goods and GDP is expected to be optimistic so we may see further equity gains and maybe a rise in Crude Oil values as good economic numbers indicates that industry will need more oil for production.  Yesterday’s Oil market enjoyed a volatile session after Saudi Arabia’s influential Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi has reiterated his country’s stance and confirmed they will no be cutting production and will allow prices to rise and fall naturally even if the price falls to $20 per barrel.  U.S. WTI Crude is currently sitting at $55.64 and looks to be edging closer to the near-term support at $53.60 with UK Brent Crude also heading in the same direction.

The Russian Rouble rallied slightly yesterday after record falls in the past few weeks as their Central Bank have been trying to prop up the banking system with rate hike and also selling foreign currency held by the bank. Large exporters have also been ordered by the Russian government to sell any foreign currency they’ve accumulated and convert it back to the Rouble in a desperate attempt keep the level up. Gold had been in a steady decline for the past few weeks and yesterday lost just over $18 to finish last night at $1170.60 during a volatile session due mainly to rising equity values – the next support area is around $1146 which seems an achievable goal by the end of the year.

Market Close Monday 22nd December 2014:   Dow Jones 30  +154.64 @ 17,959.44  S&P 500  +7.89 @ 2,078.54  NASDAQ  +11.89 @ 4,293.67  FTSE 100  +31.47 @ 6,576.74  UK AIM  +4.52 @ 696.54  DAX 30  +78.80 @ 9,856.76  CAC 40  +12.78 @ 4,254.43  IBEX  +7.40 @ 10,371.00   Nikkei 225 (Today)  Closed @ 17,635.14  Hang Seng (currently)  -48.02 @ 23,360.55

09:40am  ~  No ‘Market Update’ today, I’ve been here in London since Saturday morning and will not be back home until late tonight – so no trading to report until tomorrow (maybe)