Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 10th February 2015

07:50am UK time  ~  I have a meeting up the road with the builders mid-morning plus quite a long cycle ride with friends this afternoon but I shall still have plenty of time for chart watching so I will report back here later with any trades.

Markets were mostly down yesterday with plenty of negative news around – the situation in Greece is dragging on with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tzipras promising to end the austerity program and not wanting an extension of the bailout and President Obama suggesting that the U.S. will send in heavy weapons to support Ukraine against Putin’s troops after diplomatic efforts by France and Germany failed over the weekend.  There seems to be a new resistance level on the S&P 500 of around 2070 which it’s hit a few times in the past months since the new year fall from the all time high of 2092 so further drop looks likely and the Dow Jones 30 has a similiar resistance at 17930. Interestingly, my charts of European equities are mostly oversold but the U.S. indices are overbought so this week will be an interesting one with plenty of trading opportunities.

Crude oil markets received a small boost yesterday when OPEC forecast a small drop in output due to a slowdown in drilling which seems to suggest that som eof their members are feeling the pinch at last, the same pain that the UK and U.S. have suffered from for the last six months. WTI Crude rose 18 cents to $52.44 a barrel yesterday on light trading but the daily chart does look as though it may have more space to fall, maybe back to the January support at $43.90 ?

Market Close Monday 9th February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -90.58 @ 17,729.21  S&P 500  -8.73 @ 2,046.74  NASDAQ  -12.60 @ 4,216.09  FTSE 100  -16.29 @ 6,837.15  UK AIM  +2.55 @ 700.50  DAX 30  -182.88 @ 10,663.51  CAC 40  00.00 @ 4,691.03  IBEX  -209.20 @ 10,364.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -59.25 @ 17,652.68  Hang Seng (currently)  +13.80 @ 24,534.80

09:15am  ~  There are a few UTB patterns setting up on a variety of European equity charts so I’ll be concentrating on the one that usually produces the best pip movement – this means watching the German Dax 30 chart..

09:55am  ~  I am now in a ‘long’ UTB position on my Dax chart – the stop loss is 26 pips.

12:20pm  ~  Off up the road now for an hour and also happy with the movement on the Dax in the past few hours —  I am now out of my ‘long’ position with a +136 pip profit.

13:45pm  ~  No more chart watching for a few hours, we are off on a cycle ride down towards Aldeburgh.

18:15pm  ~  Back indoors now and going to watch my S&P 500 chart for any ‘Trade With A Day Job’ set-ups before we’re out for the evening.

19:20pm  ~  Nothing to see on the S&P so far tonight, switching laptop off now.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 9th February 2015

07:55am  UK time ~ A nice easy start to the week for me today, I shall be here at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching every now and then.

The financial markets will possibly take on a bearish slant today after news out of China overnight showed that their exports fell 3.3% year on year and imports fell even further, down almost 20%. As China is the world’s second largest economy the repercussions will be felt both here in Europe and the U.S. and positive Non Farm Payroll employment numbers released on Friday have also been taken as a pessimistic sign as the money markets are now pricing in a Fed rate hike one month earlier than the previously and widely expected October 2015.  Added to this, there is still the ‘Greek’ problem with the European Central Bank and Germany’s Wolfgang Schäuble refusing to bend to Greece’s attempt at debt renegotiation although last night the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gave a defiant speech to his people where he again insisted he was not giving way to European bullying.

U.S. Oil futures seemed to have hit a resistance level over the last week around $53.50 and expectedly low future demand from China will do nothing to increase the price in the next few days. On the flip side there is hope that lower production in the U.S. together with an improving economy over there as well will prop prices up in the long term and now there’s reported problems in Libya again which will hit crude exports, it does look as though there will be plenty of trading opportunities in Oil this week.  Gold values were hit on Friday as demand for safe haven investments was less following good U.S. jobs data, it fell over $30 to $1235 and is definitely in a bearish trend now with the next stop looking like $1222 although weak Chinese export data has helped it overnight, it’s currently slightly up at $1240.

Market Close Friday 6th February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -60.59 @ 17,824.29  S&P 500  -7.05 @ 2,055.47  NASDAQ  -27.50 @ 4,228.68  FTSE 100  -12.49 @ 6,853.44  UK AIM  +2.55 @ 700.50  DAX 30  -50.02 @ 10,846.39  CAC 40  -12.27 @ 4,691.03  IBEX  +37.60 @ 10,573.10   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +63.43 @ 17,711.33  Hang Seng (currently)  -123.91 @ 24,555.48

10:05am  ~  Was going off for a quick cycle ride but I’ve just spotted a possible ‘long’ UTB trade on my S&P500 chart.

10:25am  ~  In the above position with a 18 pip stop loss. Unsurprisingly there is also the same opportunity on the German Dax30 and FTSE100 charts.

11:00am  ~  I am now off for a cycle ride so I’ve closed off my S&P trade as the buying momentum has slowed down slightly as well. I have managed +28 pips.

12:05pm  ~  Off to lunch and then some clay pigeon shooting for a few hours this afternoon, just had a text invitation.

17:00pm  ~  Got in a short while ago but I’m going to watch my S&P 500 chart for an hour or so to see if there are any ‘Trade With A Day Job’ opportunities.

17:10pm  ~   There was a price-reversal on the S&P index with a valid set-up so I am in ‘long’ with a 24 pip stop loss – slightly higher than normal for this particular strategy but there looks to be enough movement to accommodate me.

17:40pm  ~   Well that was quick trade as we’re out for the evening soon – I covered my stop loss with a +24 pip profit.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 6th February 2015

07:55am  ~  A day away from my charts as 1) I am off clay pigeon shooting in an hour and  2) it is Non Farm Payrolls day once again so I tend to stay away from the markets. I am also putting the finishing touches to my new instruction manual on Binary Trading.

It’s going to be an interesting day on the markets led by the jobs numbers in the U.S. as expectations are for a rise of around 235,000 for January and although this shows a confident and expanding employment situation, traders could also interpret this as giving the Fed an excuse to raise interest rates sooner than expected because the economy is doing better now – good news is bad news scenario again. The other big story is the Greek debt situation with the finance minister Varoufakis failing so far to convince anyone in Brussels or Frankfurt that they should wipe the slate clean regarding the monies owed after the 2010 bailout. The anti-establishment Syriza party was elected on the ‘No-Austerity’ ticket but so far have failed to deliver to the voters the promises boasted about in their election manifesto.

The Dow Jones had a largely positive day on Thursday buoyed by energy stocks and positive employment numbers and finished 1.2% up on the day with the S&P500 up almost as much. The fact that ther eis still over-supply and weak demand for crude oil did not deter the WTI Crude prices either, it rallied over $2 during yesterday’s session to finish at $50.91 and is firmly on course for the short term support/resistance at $53.50 although my daily chart does show a bearish bias towards $43.50 again.  Gold is forming a distinct triangle pattern on the daily timeframe so a big move either up or down is on the cards in the next week, it fell nearly $6 by the end of yesterday’s session to finish at $1264.50 and after today’s Asian session it’s trading slightly higher at $1267.

Market Close Thursday 5th February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +211.86 @ 17,884.88  S&P 500  +21.01 @ 2,062.52  NASDAQ  +34.98 @ 4,256.18  FTSE 100  +5.91 @ 6,865.93  UK AIM  +3.92 @ 697.95  DAX 30  -5.91 @ 10,905.41  CAC 40  +7.00 @ 4,703.30  IBEX  -42.30 @ 10,535.50   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +143.88 @ 17,648.50  Hang Seng (currently)  -71.79 @ 24,693.70

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 5th February 2015

07:40am (UK time)  ~  I am joining a group of friends in a cycle ride up towards Lowestoft this morning but before then I ‘ll be here in the study catching up on emails and watching some charts.

The initial optimism in equity markets yesterday was slowly wiped out as the day progresses, first with higher than expected U.S. oil stocks and then the European Central Bank made a surprising announcement that they would not accept Greek government bonds as security for loans to its commercial banks.  This was basically a warning shot to the new Greek government to get them to carry on with the austerity measures that were originally negotiated at the time of their bail-out or they will have to leave the Eurozone – today’s meeting between the Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis meets his German Finance counterpart  Wolfgang Schäuble today so there will be some much awaited news later this evening.

The U.S. WTI Crude price fell nearly $3 by the end of yesterday’s session after oil supplies at Cushing were announced to be at their highest level since the early 1980′s and UK Brent Crude had a similiar move downwards, closing at $54.55 on Wednesday evening and overnight is still trading down currently at $53.13.

Gold moved up from its $1255 support level once again yesterday on the back safe haven purchasing after the ECB announced their refusal to accept Greek bonds, it gained over $8 during the day to finish at $1269.10 and is currently slightly higher still at $1271.

Market Close Wednesday 4th February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +6.62 @ 17,673.02  S&P 500  -8.52 @ 2,041.51  NASDAQ  -7.95 @ 4,221.20  FTSE 100  -11.78 @ 6,860.02  UK AIM  +0.76 @ 694.03  DAX 30  +20.37 @ 10,911.32  CAC 40  +18.40 @ 4,696.30  IBEX  -20.40 @ 10,577.80   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -168.05 @ 17,510.65  Hang Seng (currently)  +108.01 @ 24,787.77

09:15am  ~  The only thing I can see on my charts at the moment is a possible UTB pattern setting up on my FTSE100 chart – more soon…

09:30am  ~  If the FTSE price rises above 6829 it will trigger a ‘long’ trade, the stop loss looks to be around 17 pips.  Friends have arrived for the cycle ride so I have now set an order with a 20 pip profit target.

11:15am  ~  Just got back from cycle ride and have seen my FTSE trade turned out ok  (+20 pips)and I have also just got into a Dax30 UTB trade as the price was still hovering around the entry level  - my stop loss is a ‘whopping’ 16 pips.

11:55am  ~  Now out of my second UTB trade of the morning – it’s managed a profit of +41 pip.  I have just taken my usual chart screenshot to send to students.

12:10pm  ~  I am now in a ‘long’ trendFX strategy one position on my U.S. Crude (WTI) chart – my stop loss is 32 pips.

13:55pm  ~  Happy with the move up on the WTI chart, I’m out of my trade with a +93 pip profit.

14:00pm  ~ Late lunch at the Lord Nelson now, pip count sufficient for the day…

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 4th February 2015

07:30am UK time ~ I’m here in the study this morning doing some chart watching while catching up on emails then a clay pigeon shoot this afternoon. I will report back here if I have any trade details to share with you.

Equity markets were buoyed yesterday by higher crude oil values in the U.S. and talk of a Greek agreement on debt in Europe.  The WTI Crude price rallied by nearly $1.80 yesterday after a slowdown in production caused many traders to believe there is going to be an oil shortage although the stock situation numbers will confirm this later today so expect some good trading opportunities this afternoon. Energy companies led the the way in U.S. equities and the Dow Jones 30 index rose 1.76% by yesterday evening and the wider S&P 500 confirmed its position over the 2000 level by finishing at 2050 (+290 pips) and is now looking at the next resistance level at 2065.

In Europe the German Dax 30 is at a 6 year high as the Greek tragedy looks like calming down temporarily, with the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis meeting with ECB boss Mario Drahi and with Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German Federal Minister of Finance tomorrow to try and calm the waters and finally agree to a debt repayment programme that the rest of the EU feels comfortable with.

Despite growing demand from the upcoming Chinese new year, Gold suffered a fall yesterday and ended the day nearly $15 down at $1260.50 and is now heading towards the $1250 support level, so watch for long trading opportunities when it reaches this point.

Market Close Tuesday 3rd February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +305.36 @ 17,666.40  S&P 500  +29.18 @ 2,050.03  NASDAQ  +40.56 @ 4,229.15  FTSE 100  +89.25 @ 6,871.80  UK AIM  +2.22 @ 693.27  DAX 30  +62.94 @ 10,890.95  CAC 40  +50.23 @ 4,677.90  IBEX  +270.10 @ 10,598.20   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +342.89 @ 17,678.74  Hang Seng (currently)  +123.229 @ 24,678.0

10:30am  ~  Not much happening on my charts so it’s time for my daily cycle ride – over the river to Walberswick and then down the beach path towards the power station.

12:10pm  ~  Just got back and I can see a possible ‘short’ UTB trade setting up on my German Dax30 chart.

12:20pm  ~  I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Dax chart with a 19 pip stop loss.

13:20pm  ~  Just come out of my Dax position after the market became extremely volatile following the U.S. employment numbers announcement a few minutes ago – I managed a +10 pip profit.

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Tuesday 3rd February 2015

07:45am UK time ~  A nice restful day here at home for me today after being out and about for most of yesterday – I shall be here in the study this morning catching up on emails and also watching a few charts. I am also putting the finishing touches to my Binary Trading manual.

The markets were given a late boost last night as news emerged that the new Greek government were not seeking debt write-off but where instead going for restructuring instead. Business owners who need help managing their debts may seek Business Debt Solutions from a financial advisor.

This announcement meant that U.S. equities ended up on the day after a generally bearish start to the week due mainly to the surprising fall in the ISM Manufacturing PMI which dropped to one year low of 53.5 against the expected 54.9.  Overnight Asian markets fell amid perpetual growth concerns even though they had a strong start on the back of the ‘Greek’ news and the Australian dollar dropped to a six-year low after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to 2.5% —  a record low.

The U.S. Crude Oil price rallied yesterday on news of a report showing a drop in working oil rigs which in turn hints at lower production therefore a chance at higher prices although many of the rigs that have shutdown were ones that were low yielding anyway. The earlier news was strong enough to push WTI Crude up over $2 at the close of Monday’s business to $49.81 per barrel. Gold had a fairly good day on Chinese New Year purchasing although it did fall back slightly by the end after equity markets rallied, it ended yesterday’s session slightly lower at $1274 although the weekly chart is still showing a general bullishness towards the $1340 resistance level.

Market Close Monday 2nd February 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +196.09 @ 17,361.04  S&P 500  +25.86 @ 2,025.85  NASDAQ  +40.16 @ 4,188.59  FTSE 100  +33.15 @ 6,782.55  UK AIM  +0.71 @ 691.05  DAX 30  +133.69 @ 10,828.01  CAC 40  +23.42 @ 4,627.67  IBEX  -75.20 @ 10,328.10   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -222.19 @ 17,335.85  Hang Seng (currently)  +78.81 @ 24,563.85

08:05am  ~  Nothing much to see on the charts at the moment so I am off for an early cycle ride along the beach path.

10:15am  ~  Been back a short while and I can see a possible UTB ‘short’ setting up on my U.S. Crude Oil chart and also the German Dax30.

10:25am  ~  The WTI Crude price has shot up so the UTB did not happen, but I am in the Dax position with a 15 pip stop loss.

10:40pm  ~  Out of my ‘short’ Dax30 UTB position (+27 pips) and now looking at a ‘long’ proposition on the same chart.

10:50am  ~  The price has risen enough to trigger a ‘long’ trade, it’s a trendFX strategy 1 set-up with a 20 pip stop loss.

12:25pm  ~  The Dax price is having a real struggle to advance much further, it has been hovering around the 10950/10960 level for an hour or so now so I am now out of the market with a +20 pip profit.  Lunch at the Lord Nelson next..

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Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Monday 2nd February 2015

07:25am (UK time)  ~ Back in freezing Britain now but not sure how much trading I’ll be doing today, there are a few jobs around the house to do this morning plus I am also putting the finishing touches to my new guide on Binary Trading.

The markets are set to have a bumpy ride during this coming week – it all kicked off on Friday with lower than expected U.S. GDP, down from 5% for the third quarter of 2014 to the latest period at 2.6% although consumer spending has not followed suit yet and has risen yet again. Overnight trading in Asia has also seen falls in equity markets after weak Chinese manufacturing figures on top of the U.S. news. On top of all this, there is also the Greek story – the new hard-left Syriza party does not want to honour their loan repayment programme and there is talk of exiting their bailout commitments. These developments have got the Spaniards thinking about austerity and thousands of supporters of the anti-austerity Podemos party went on marches all over Spain at the weekend with rumblings on this subject in Italy as well.

All this pessimism has brought out buyers in Gold for  it’s safe-haven properties, it rallied over $25 on Friday to $1284 although there has been some recent profit taking and it’s fallen back down to $1278 currently. A sharp decline in oil drilling in the U.S. caused the WTI Crude price to shoot up over 8% on Friday reaching a high of $48.32 before easing back to a current $47.18 although further gains maybe coming with news of a nationwide U.S. oil workers strike brewing which will cut production further together with the value of futures contracts which all points to the fact that we may have seen the bottom of the market in the short term.

Market Close Friday 30th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -251.90 @ 17,164.95  S&P 500  -26.26 @ 1,994.99  NASDAQ  -32.92 @ 4,148.43  FTSE 100  -61.20 @ 6,749.40  UK AIM  +3.86 @ 690.34  DAX 30  -43.55 @ 10,694.32  CAC 40  27.18 @ 4,604.25  IBEX  -104.30 @ 10,403.30   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -116.35 @ 17,558.04  Hang Seng (currently)  -100.21 @ 24,406.84

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Friday 30th January 2015

08:45am CET (07:45 UK time)  ~  Another day away from my charts – the builders are finishing off this morning at last so I will get in their way for an hour or so and I am also going to spend time quietly here in the study finishing off my Binary Trading book.  We are flying back to the UK for a week later this evening.

The markets were in the doldrums yesterday but then Fed Chief Janet Yellen had a quick look at her charts and decided they needed a slight boost so at a Senate Democrats meeting last night she reiterated her stance on interest rates and confirmed they were not going to be raised any time soon. This gave the Dow Jones and S&P indices a nice shove and they both ended the day up around 1%, no doubt helped also by positive employment numbers as well.  European equity markets also had a positive day with the German Dax 30 sitting almost at all time highs again having forgotten about the Greek tragedy that’s playing out just south of them.

Oil markets are still suffering from over production and the U.S. WTI Crude hit an all time low intraday of $43.65 before bargain hunters stepped in yesterday evening and pushed the price up to finish the session at $44.60 and is still rattling around that level this morning after the overnight Asian session. The strong U.S. Dollar weighed on Gold values yesterday, it closed over $25 to $1258.20 and at one stage hit the October support/resistance line at $1250 – some more pessimistic news from Greece over the weekend should keep that support level intact.

Market Close Thursday 29th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +225.48 @ 17,416.85  S&P 500  +19.09 @ 2,021.25  NASDAQ  +40.98 @ 4,140.38  FTSE 100  +14.33 @ 6,825.94  UK AIM  +1.45 @ 690.46  DAX 30  +82.39 @ 10,710.97  CAC 40  -13.27 @ 4,610.94  IBEX  -142.00 @ 10,456.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -189.51 @ 17,606.22  Hang Seng (currently)  -290.72 @ 24,571.09

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Thursday 29th January 2015

08:05am CET (07:05 UK time)  ~  As with most building projects, there’s been an overun with mine so I am helping the builders again today – so no trading once again for me today.

The main news in the markets yesterday was last night’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes which sees the U.S. economy as ‘solid’ which traders took to mean that a June rate hike is still on the cards, and this sentiment drove the major indices down – the leading Dow Jones 30 fell 270 points (-1.13%) to 17,185 by the close last night with the wider S&P500 down over 1.3%. The falling value of the Dollar is also weighing heavily on U.S. equity markets as domestic exporters are finding their products more expensive although Apple are bucking that trend at the moment of course with record profits for any company in the world – and on top of these massive earnings there are reports of a $170 Billion bank balance as well for the phone maker.

Weekly Crude Oil inventory numbers were announced yesterday and a larger than expected rise in stocks hit the oil market – U.S. WTI Crude fell $1.40 to $44.38 by the close last night with UK Brent Crude following closely behind and lower equity values reflect on lower perceived demand for oil which also puts pressure on prices. Gold failed to rise up towards the $1300 resistance level and instead fell nearly $10 yesterday to $1283 and is heading towards the near term support at $1272 this morning after a largely negative overnight Asian session.

Market Close Wednesday 28th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -195.84 @ 17,191.37  S&P 500  -27.39 @ 2,002.16  NASDAQ  -25.13 @ 4,140.38  FTSE 100  +14.33 @ 6,825.94  UK AIM  +1.45 @ 690.46  DAX 30  +82.39 @ 10,710.97  CAC 40  -13.27 @ 4,610.94  IBEX  -142.00 @ 10,456.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -189.51 @ 17,606.22  Hang Seng (currently)  -290.72 @ 24,571.09

Trading Diary & Market Update ~ Wednesday 28th January 2015

07:25am CET (06:25 UK Time)  ~  Up early but no trading for me today as I am helping the builders on their final day here after two months of work.

The up and down of the equity markets continued yesterday as the main U.S. Dow Jones 30 index fell 291 points by the close of the session after disappointing durable goods figures together with worse than expected earnings from Caterpillar and Microsoft. The broader S&P500 also lost 275 pips but is staying above the 2000 level for time being but the tech-heavy Nasdaq index suffered worst losing 2.5% (110 points).  Europe also witnessed widespread losses on the back of Greek worries although equities are due to open higher because of the late rally across the Atlantic.

The Crude Oil market was in a bullish mood, the U.S. WTI gained 65 cents to $45.80 as bargain hunters controlled trading for most of the day although inventory numbers at Cushing released later today may halt its progress, there are estimations that stocks have grown by over 4 million barrels.

Gold briefly fell below the important $1280 level yesterday and with it brought in technical traders to resume the march upwards that began in November. The next resistance level is at $1300 so if equity markets continue to be volatile this week we may see that point reached.

Market Close Tuesday 27th January 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -291.49 @ 17,387.21  S&P 500  -27.54 @ 2,029.55  NASDAQ  -110.21 @ 4,165.50  FTSE 100  -40.79 @ 6,811.61  UK AIM  -5.43 @ 689.01  DAX 30  -169.75 @ 10,628.58  CAC 40  -50.92 @ 4,624.21  IBEX  -97.20 @ 10,598.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +27.43 @ 17,795.73  Hang Seng (currently)  +41.83 @ 24,849.11