07:55am CET (06:55 UK time)  ~  Early start for me today as we have friends arriving from the UK this morning and this means no trading for me again and I’m away from my charts now until next Tuesday as we are also going to Minorca for a 3-day break.

Yesterday it was again the case that bad news was good news for the markets – in the U.S. there was disappointing retail sales figures which came in at a 0.3% fall against an expected 0.3% rise.  Against retails traders expectations both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 rallied by well over 1% by the end of the session as there was general consensus that these numbers would go some way to convincing the Fed to delay a rate rise which is penciled in for this summer.  Here in Europe sentiment was slightly more downbeat as news of the latest Greek bailout reached markets – they received just under €500 million in emergency liquidity assistance from the European Central Bank yesterday and traders are still unsure that a permanent solution will be reached.

Crude oil values were still under pressure yesterday on Global oversupply worries, the April delivery contract for U.S. WTI Crude ended down $1.12 at $47.05 although it’s regained some ground during the overnight Asian session and UK Brent suffered similiar falls but is also bouncing back as bargain hunters are getting back into the market in a small way but volumes are down significantly as the big traders wait on the sidelines looking for direction.  As U.S. equities rose yesterday Gold values suffered again but seem to be holding at the $1147 support level although my daily chart chart still shows an oversold situation.

Market Close Thursday 12th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +259.83 @ 17,895.22  S&P 500  +25.71 @ 2,065.95  NASDAQ  +30.85 @ 4,336.23  FTSE 100  +39.56 @ 6,761.07  UK AIM  +4.62 @ 716.21  DAX 30  -6.60 @ 11,799.39  CAC 40  -10.42 @ 4,987.33  IBEX  -10.00 @ 11,011.80   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +263.14 @ 19,254.25  Hang Seng (currently)  +55.54 @ 23,853.50

09:55am CET (08:55 UK time)  ~  An unusually late start for me today after an extremely busy night out so I can see a relaxing day at home mainly doing emails and a bit of chart watching.

As a general rule U.S. and European markets move broadly together albeit with some lag occasionally but recently we’ve seen German and French indices power upwards while the American ones have suffered from persistent rumours of a rate rise sooner than later.  The Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 had another negative day yesterday although the drop was less dramatic than recent sessions and there is a sense of bargain hunting in this morning’s futures market after Asian markets has a generally positive session overnight after South Korea cut their benchmark lending rate and encouraging wage increases in Japan points towards an optimistic economic outlook.  The rises in Europe are partly due to the decision that the European Central Bank is purchasing negative yielding bonds but this bullish mood maybe short lived as there are still hidden problems in the EU banking sector together with the Greek elephant in the room.

Crude oil values suffered during yesterday’s session due to two significant pieces of news – firstly the weekly crude inventories from Cushing showed a rise of 4.5 million barrels bringing the total U.S. stock to nearly 449 million barrels which is the highest since mid 1982 and secondly the energy minister from Oman has speculated that the overall global oil market is over supplied by more than a million barrels a day.

Market Close Wednesday 11th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -27.55 @ 17,635.99  S&P 500  -3.92 @ 2,040.24  NASDAQ  -23.70 @ 4,305.38  FTSE 100  +18.67 @ 6,721.51  UK AIM  -0.04 @ 711.59  DAX 30  +305.61 @ 11,805.99  CAC 40  +115.80 @ 4,997.75  IBEX  +115.80 @ 11,021.80   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +267.59 @ 18,991.11  Hang Seng (currently)  +97.41 @ 23,815.38

All times below are CET (UK + 1hr)

10:15am  ~  Going off for a cycle ride to clear the cobwebs…

16:30pm  ~  No trades to report as I’ve been outside with the builders since I returned from my bike ride – try again tomorrow !

08:10am CET (07:10 UK time)  ~  At home today as the builders are back so I will be chart watching and doing emails for most of the day.

There are now quite a few reasons for equity traders to be wary of the record highs that have been the norm recently and many indices witnessed record falls yesterday as a result. A higher U.S. Dollar and fear of a sooner than expected rate rise was a couple of reasons that a big sell-off occurred in New York yesterday.  The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies finished down nearly 2% on the day and has now given up all of its gains for 2015 as it’s now back to December levels of around 17,700. The strength of the Dollar impacts on the countries exports and even the fall in oil prices yesterday did nothing to halt any slide. Here in Europe there are reports that Greece is yet again going to run out of money before the end of this month even though they have been given €555 million by the Greek Bank Rescue Fund yesterday and they may have to raid pension and social security funds.

To compound all this bad news, there was also less than encouraging Chinese Economic Data showing that February’s industrial production fell over 1% compared with January’s numbers, giving strength to rumours of a general global slowdown.  In the crude oil market, U.S. WTI continues it’s slow slide down towards the support level around $44 due mainly to a strong Dollar but also due to rumours of higher stockpile numbers that are out later today.  According to trader friends in the city, the corresponding fall in Brent Crude was due mainly to profit taking after recent highs.

Market Close Tuesday 10th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -332.78 @ 17,662.94  S&P 500  -35.27 @ 2,044.16  NASDAQ  -83.91 @ 4,329.08  FTSE 100  -173.63 @ 6,702.84  UK AIM  -4.31 @ 711.63  DAX 30  -81.73 @ 10,902.20  CAC 40  -55.25 @ 4,881.95  IBEX  -152.00 @ 10,902.20   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +58.41 @ 18,723.52  Hang Seng (currently)  -176.62 @ 23,720.36

All times below are CET (UK + 1hr)

09:25am  ~  Just got into a ‘short’ position on my U.S. WTI Crude chart. More details to follow as I have to sort out the builders right now and get them focused….

10:15am  ~  Right, the details of the above trade: it’s a trendFX strategy 3 set-up on my WTI Crude chart and I have a 21 pip stop loss.

10:30am  ~  The WTI Crude selling momentum is starting to diminish so I am out of my position with a +24 pip profit.

12:50pm  ~  Just got back from a short cycle ride and I can see a possible UTB pattern setting up on my WTI chart.

13:05pm  ~  The price has risen high enough to trigger a trade so I am in a ‘long’ position although I am very wary of the U.S. crude stock numbers that are due to be released soon.  My stop loss is 19 pips.

14:15pm  ~  The WTI price is becoming more volatile so I have taken my quick profit and exited my position. I have ended up with +25 pips.  I am also in a ‘short’ UTB on my S&P 500 chart but the laptop that I was using for that trade has just died so I cannot give you any further details.

14:35pm  ~  All ok now, the stop loss on my current trade is 29 pips.

15:55pm  ~  Just resurrected the laptop and closed off my S&P 500 trades as there was the usual opening volatility that occurs as the U.S. markets get going. Final score was +77 pips.

18:10pm  ~  I’ve been watching my charts to see if there are any ‘Trade With A Day Job’ opportunities but nothing yet however I am now in a ‘long position on my Gold chart with another UTB trade — stop loss is 25 pips.

20:25pm  ~ We’re off out in 5mins for some supper in town so I’ve just closed off my Gold UTB trade with a +32 pip profit.

08:10am CET (07:10 UK time)  ~  I shall mostly be here at home today doing emails and chart watching but there is also a cycle ride to Cala Sant Vincenc with a group of neighbours this morning.

The Euro group meeting are continuing today and yesterday’s get together in Brussels honed in on the problems in Greece which has has the effect of concentrating traders minds on what could go wrong, so equities took a tumble during Monday’s trading session through a majority of European countries with the marked exception of Germany who’s Dax Index ended up on the day mainly due to the fact that ECB started their money printing exercise which is going to have a marked effect on the German economy.

On Friday there was an bearish reaction in the U.S. markets to encouraging employment numbers and now that traders have gathered their thoughts they now see that the move down was slightly overdone, so both major indices regained lost ground yesterday to end up on the day, the main Dow Jones was ahead by nearly 180 points. On the other hand the options market is showing that there is an increased likelihood that rates will rise in June/July this year, upto a 23% chance against 18% at the end of February so that will weight heavily on the markets as the month progresses.

U.S. Crude is still trading in a narrow range between $48 and $54 and is currently sitting at $49:83 after a positive session yesterday on news from the U.S. Government that their shale producers are slowing production.

Market Close Monday 9th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -278.94 @ 17,856.78  S&P 500  -29.78 @ 2,071.26  NASDAQ  -52.83 @ 4,399.23  FTSE 100  -49.34 @ 6,911.80  UK AIM  +3.99 @ 718.11  DAX 30  +46.96 @ 11,550.97  CAC 40  +0.84 @ 4,964.35  IBEX  -32.50 @ 11,091.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -180.45 @ 18,790.55  Hang Seng (currently)  +0.53 @ 24,164.53

All times below are CET (UK + 1hr)

09:40am  ~  There is a lot of bearish charts at the moment and there’s a possible short on I can see on Brent Crude with one of the trendFX strategies.

09:55am  ~  I am now in that ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude chart – my stop loss is 24 pips.

10:20am  ~ Fellow riders have arrived for our cycle so I’ve set my stop loss at break even as the trade is doing quite well  and set the profit at 48 pips (twice original stop loss)

12:25pm  ~  Just got back from our cycle ride and my trade is still going down but has not hit it’s target yet.

12:40pm  ~  The Brent Crude price has hit a support level and is now starting to rise so I am out of my position at +24 pips.

13:25pm  ~  My Brent Crude chart has just shown another bearish trendFX set-up, so I am once again a ‘short’ position. The stop loss this time is 20 pips and there seems to be slightly more profit potential this time as the price has just crossed over a short-term support line.

14:30pm  ~  Still in the trade, the Brent price has come down nicely.

16:50pm  ~  Some friends have arrived so I’ve closed my trade off at +76 pips as it’s a decent profit.

08:15am CET (07:15 UK time)  ~  A quiet day at home for me today after an extremely busy weekend. If I do have any trades I will report the details here.

As you know, the latest U.S. jobs report was out on Friday in the form of the monthly ‘Non-Farm-Payrolls’ numbers and once again it was a case of good news is bad news as an increasingly successful economy over there means the fed are more likely to raise their benchmark interest rate sooner than originally planned. The figures that were released at lunchtime on Friday showed that over 295,000 new jobs were added to the economy ahead of the estimated 235,000 although average wages has not kept pace.  The U.S. employment rate is now standing at 5.5% which is the lowest number since the height of the financial crisis in 2008.  The prospect of a summer interest rate hike has also had an effect on the Dollar, it rose over 180 pips on Friday against the Euro due to the renewed prospect of record low interest rates starting to slowly rise and the rate of 1.08495 is the lowest for the Euro since 2006 and after the earlier Asian session this morning it’s recovered slightly and currently sitting at 1.08561.  European equities are still up near record levels which is in stark contrast to the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices who have come off recent highs are now showing signs of a downward trend, especially after the large drops on Friday but the Greek problem is rearing it’s head once again so the bears may be making a comeback in Europe – keep an eye on the news today as there are Eurogroup meeting in Brussels for the next few days and then a speech by ECB President Mario Draghi on Wednesday with a summary of policy changes.

The U.S. WTI Crude oil price had a steady fall on Friday mainly due to the stronger Dollar and news that an Iranian government official stated that they will be increasing oil production significantly i the near future once crippling sanctions are lifted, it is again below the $50 level and is currently sitting at $49.59 this morning.

Market Close Friday 6th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -278.94 @ 17,856.78  S&P 500  -29.78 @ 2,071.26  NASDAQ  -52.83 @ 4,399.23  FTSE 100  -49.34 @ 6,911.80  UK AIM  +3.99 @ 718.11  DAX 30  +46.96 @ 11,550.97  CAC 40  +0.84 @ 4,964.35  IBEX  -32.50 @ 11,091.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -180.45 @ 18,790.55  Hang Seng (currently)  +0.53 @ 24,164.53

All times below are CET (UK + 1hr)

09:05am  ~  Unexpectedly helping neighbour with building problems in his barn so going to be out for the morning – no trades so far.

17:50pm  ~  Been out in the sunshine all day helping my neighbour with some building work so I’ve not had any chance to watch charts but I shall do so now while I’m here in the kitchen cooking some supper for later.

18:05pm  ~  I’m mainly watching the S&P 500 chart to see if there’s any ‘Trade With A Day Job’ set-ups but I will glance at other charts from time to time.

18:25pm  ~  In a ‘short’ position on the S&P chart – my stop loss is 15 pips.

19:00pm  ~  The S&P has risen quite well so I’ve come out of that position with a +73 pip profit.

19:50pm  ~  Now entered another ‘long’ position on the same chart – another ‘Trade With A Day Job’ set-up (14 pip stop loss)

20:35pm  ~  That’s it for the evening – I am now out of my 2nd trade with a +34 pip profit

I’ve just had a Skype call with a South African guy who now lives in Spain and has been trying to trade profitably for around 18 months – and it struck me again that most new traders go through exactly the same problems in learning to trade.

First of all they will buy the cheapest trading system they can find on the internet and then have a few days on a demo account finding out all about how the markets work. After a period which is always too short (usually a few days) they will deposit a few hundred pounds into a live trading account and start trading with only scant knowledge of the instrument they are trading and also the strategy they’re using.

This usually results in the same outcome. Losses and more losses.

There will be the occasional winning trade which just goes to show the new trader that it is possible, but unfortunately he does not really know why it occurred ! And more frustration ensues while he tries to uncover what’s wrong with his methodology.

After a week or so, the entire account balance has gone and usually some more funds are found so that the process can carry on.  This quite often carries on for months while the person looks for more trading strategies but the result is usually the same – more and more losses.

It does sadden me when I here these stories every week but there is another way, one that will give you a proper grounding in the way the markets move so giving you a key to being successful in the markets.  Just email me and I will explain more.

07:55am CET (06:55 UK time)  ~  A day away from the charts today as it’s the first Friday of the new month again – which means U.S. employment figures out after lunchtime local time although I have got a lot of email catching up to do together with 4 Skype calls this morning with new traders.

Equities were generally bullish yesterday but  markets will be drifting around this morning in readiness for a buying or selling spree at 2:30pm as the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls numbers are announced and judging by previous data the numbers look ok. This does not always mean optimism for equities though as an expanding economy means interest rates could rise earlier than expected which in turn is bad for company profits – all will be revealed later so watch from the wings. After Mario Draghi’s speech in Cyprus yesterday the Euro continued it’s fall in value – he announced that his bond-buying programme will commence early next week and if necessary will carry on until September next year which is not good news for the shared currency so it may well continue its decline that began almost a year ago. It’s value fell below $1.10 during yesterday’s session which is the first time it has done that for over 12 years.

The rise is Crude Oil Inventories in the U.S. damaged prices in WTI Crude during Thursday’s trading session resulting in a fall of nearly a Dollar to $50:94 which is where it currently stands after the overnight Asian session.  News from Libya however may cause some respite as they’ve admitted to problems with eleven of its larger oil fields meaning a halting of crude supplies due to clashes between Libyan security guards and IS fighters.  As I have mentioned before, Gold has been moving in a narrow channel between $1223 and $1190 and again yesterday it fell below the significant $1200 level amid falling Asian demand and if equities rally this afternoon there will be further pressure on its value.

Market Close Friday 5th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +38.82 @ 18,135.72  S&P 500  +2.51 @ 2,101.04  NASDAQ  +6.70 @ 4,452.06  FTSE 100  +41.90 @ 6,961.14  UK AIM  +1.92 @ 714.12  DAX 30  +113.63 @ 11,504.01  CAC 40  +46.16 @ 4,963.51  IBEX  +73.10 @ 11,124.40   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +219.16 @ 18,971.00  Hang Seng (currently)  -35.31 @ 24,157.73

All times below are CET (UK time +1hr)

08:40am ~  I was chatting to a new trader on Skype a few minutes ago about trading Crude Oil and I noticed a possible UTB trade on my Brent chart – if it triggers I shall have a quick trade.

08:55am  ~  I am in a ‘long’ Brent Crude position with a 17 pip stop loss.

10:00am  ~  With today’s unexpected movements in most markets, my trade was never going to be an all-day affair and now that the price has risen to a sufficient level I am out of the position. It has come out at +33 pips and has been a very useful example for another trader I have just been speaking to on Skype.

08:00am CET (7:00 am UK)  ~  Another bright sunny day and there is talk of a fishing trip at lunchtime – but before then I shall be here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.

All eyes and ears will be on ECB President Mario Draghi at 2:30pm (UK 13:30) when he is expected to outline the exact details of his bond-buying programme that was announced in general at the beginning of the year although many EU members are now questioning the need for any money printing exercise as the drop in the oil price has acted as a better stimulus as the Germans pointed out last week. On the subject of Europe, the Greek problem has been quiet for a few days although there are now rumours that the new government is trying to get into bed with the Russians which can only be an advantage considering how much money they need at the moment – the Greeks already process a large amount of petrol for the Russians so there is already an established relationship that can only grow now as Putin seeks to annoy the EU in Brussels.

Equities in the U.S. were slightly down on the day following good numbers for Payrolls and PMI which then hints at a rise in interest rates sooner than expected, which is then bad for equities – bad news is good news again. Here in Europe the trend was slightly different where early losses were wiped and most equity markets ended positively. The Crude oil market both here and the U.S. is still rangebound with WTI having a positive day even though there was another rise in U.S. Crude stocks.

Market Close Wednesday 4th March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -106.47 @ 18,096.90  S&P 500  -9.25 @ 2,09.53  NASDAQ  -13.42 @ 4,445.36  FTSE 100  +30.11 @ 6,919.24  UK AIM  +3.05 @ 712.20  DAX 30  +110.02 @ 11,390.38  CAC 40  +48.10 @ 4,917.35  IBEX  +36.60 @ 11,051.30   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +48.24 @ 18,715.84  Hang Seng (currently)  -279.17 @ 24,186.21

All time below are CET (UK + 1hr)

10:10am  ~  Going off for a cycle ride, nothing to see on my charts at the moment.

12:55pm  ~  There’s a possible ‘short’ UTB pattern setting up on my Brent Crude chart.

13:10pm  ~  I am now in the above mentioned trade, the stop loss is 19 pips.

13:55pm  ~  Just on time my trade has finished – I am off now for my fishing trip and I have also been stopped out of my Brent trade, the price has just moved up quite quickly in the last few minutes.

08:20am CET (07:20 UK time)  ~  A nice quiet day at home for me today – I spotted that around 300 incoming emails have not been downloaded onto this laptop so I shall be catching up with those primarily today – if you’ve written to me in the past week and not had a reply please bear with me.  Cycle ride at some stage, I did not manage one yesterday.

Traders were reluctant to keep the bullish momentum going yesterday and a fair amount of profit taking meant that all major indices both here in Europe and over the water in the U.S. ended Tuesday’s session in the red. Rumours of poor corporate earnings meant that technology and health-related companies fell the most during the U.S. session together with news that most of the rise in prices over there was caused by companies buying their own shares – although that could be seen as confidence in future.  Here in Europe, the spotlight was temporarily taken away from Greece’s troubles with news that there is a mini-crisis in the Austrian banking sector with multi billion euro debts that look to be lost forever, no doubt there will be more news on that subject today.

The crude oil market was boosted by news that the ever confident Saudis have increased their prices of oil exports to Asia amid increased demand and this together with a refinery strike in Libya meant that WTI Crude was in a bullish mood yesterday, moving ever closer to the resistance level at $51 — it is currently sitting at $50:48 as I write this with plenty of momentum behind it.

Market Close Tuesday 3rd March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -85.26 @ 18,203.37  S&P 500  -9.61 @ 2,107.78  NASDAQ  -24.27 @ 4,458.78  FTSE 100  -51.51 @ 6,889.13  UK AIM  -3.95 @ 709.15  DAX 30  -130.00 @ 11,280.36  CAC 40  -48.07 @ 4,869.25  IBEX  -163.80 @ 11,014.70   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -111.56 @ 18,703.60  Hang Seng (currently)  -194.91 @ 24,507.87

All time below are CET (UK + 1hr)

09:15am  ~  Neighbour has just suggested a cycle ride and as there’s not much happening on my charts I’m off for a while, we’re going south across the bay apparently.

12:05pm  ~  Been back a short while and the only thing I can see on my collection of charts is a possible set-up suggesting further bearish movement for Gold.

12:35pm  ~  I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart with a trendFX strategy one set-up. My stop loss is 14 pips and there seems to be a small support area at $1201.50 that needs to be watched.

12:40pm  ~  Just got into a ‘long’ UTB position on my French CAC 40 chart – stop loss this time is 10 pips

13:05pm  ~  Just been stopped out of my Gold trade at minus 14 pips.

14:25pm  ~  Now out of my other position with a +25 pip profit.

14:40pm  ~  Wednesday’s U.S. trading session has just got underway and there’s no real excitement at the moment so we’re driving into town to have a late lunch.

17:25pm  ~  As we’re at home and not planning to do much tonight I shall switch on my S&P 500 chart on at 6 o’clock to watch for any ‘Trade With A Day Job’ opportunities.

19:50pm  ~  Just been invited out so charts off and nothing to report.

08:05am CET (07:05am UK)  ~  Off to Palma this morning to do some essential shopping but before then some emailing and Skype calls and chart watching.

U.S. equities hit another all time high yesterday on the back of rising consumer spending data which shows that the economy over there is still moving in the right direction – the Dow Jones index of the top 30 companies rose to a high of 18288 on the back of this news even though the ISM Manufacturing numbers came in worse than expected – the index finished up 155 points with the wider S&P 500 following closely behind. Here in Europe there was good manufacturing news for Spain and Ireland and new highs for the German Dax 30 and London’s FTSE 100 although more problems in Greece where the Greek government has found a problem with liquidity and are having problems paying some creditors – a dip into pension funds seems to be on the cards apparently.

Crude oil was again in the news with Saudi Arabia’s oil output reaching it’s highest level since late 2013 and rumours that OPEC’s exports may well exceed 3 million barrels for March which will put more pressure on crude values and Thursday’s U.S. crude oil stock position is expected to show another rise which all goes to contribute to more falls for oil charts.

Market Close Monday 2nd March 2015:   Dow Jones 30  +155.93 @ 18,288.63  S&P 500  +12.89 @ 2,179.39  NASDAQ  +42.38 @ 4,483.05  FTSE 100  -6.02 @ 6,940.64  UK AIM  -1.40 @ 713.10  DAX 30  +8.70 @ 11,410.36  CAC 40  -34.16 @ 4,917.32  IBEX  +0.20 @ 11,178.50   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -11.72 @ 18,815.16  Hang Seng (currently)  -217.17 @ 24,670.27

All time below are CET (UK + 1hr)

08:50am  ~  Just had a cursory glance at my favourite charts and there’s not much happening as the European session gets underway – so we’re off to Palma for the morning.

14:55pm  ~  Back home now after a nice lunch so I shall switch on my MT4 platform to see what’s happening on the markets.

15:15pm  ~  There’s a possible trendFX strategy 3 trade setting up on my S&P 500 but as the U.S. session is just kicking off anything could happen in the next half hour or so.

15:45pm  ~  I am now in a ‘short’ position on the S&P with a 35 pip stop loss.

16:05pm  ~  Well that was a quick trade – the price has been quite volatile so I have taken a quick profit out of the market, just +38 pips.

18:20pm  ~  I have looked at my charts twice since getting out of the S&P trade but nothing much happening so that’s it for the day as far as trading goes — we have friends arriving soon for supper.