06:15am An early start for me today as I am helping the builders today and tomorrow with some renovations. As it’s a bank holiday in the UK on Monday I shall be back here on Tuesday ready for some trading.
I shall also be sending out details soon to all customers regarding the new ‘Long-Term-Trading’ manual and Daily Guidance email – if you are not already a trader with Markets Mastered and would like more information please email me HERE
07:00am Another early start and day up in Norfolk for me so yet again no trading today.
A busy day on the markets yesterday as U.S. GDP figures came in at a disappointing 0.2% and core inflation dropped down to 0.9% from the previous month’s 1.1% giving the Fed solid reasons to delay the expected June interest rate rise – commentators are now split between September and December. Last night’s FOMC statement was a conspicuous non-event with no real clues as to how the committee are swinging with regard to a definite date to raise the minimum bank rate.
The U.S. Dollar’s strength over the past few months that’s been caused by rumours of a rate hike evaporated yesterday and many currency crosses including the EUR/USD staged a good reversal. A strong Dollar has been hurting domestic exporters which in turn does no good for their economy so the slight weakening yesterday will give a boost to many of the larger S&P 500 companies, so does this mean the U.S. indices are once again going to reach for record highs once again ? My daily charts of both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 are showing themselves to be the most oversold they have been for nearly a month, so the odds are for an imminent rise in the next 5 days.
On the Crude Oil market, U.S. WTI Crude broke up above its $58:35 resistance level that can trace it’s roots back to the middle of last December although the weekly charts does show that there maybe some profit-taking arriving soon. Here in the UK, Brent Crude is well above its recent $62:65 resistance area with a move upwards to $67:50 looking increasingly likely.
Market Close Wednesday 29th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 -74.61 @ 18,035.53 S&P 500 -7.91 @ 2,106.85 NASDAQ -27.11 @ 4,488.15 FTSE 100 -84.25 @ 6,946.28 UK AIM -1.45 @ 752.40 DAX 30 -378.94 @ 11,432.72 CAC 40 -133.99 @ 5,039.39 IBEX -228.80 @ 11,378.90 Nikkei 225 (Today) -482.89 @ 19,576.06 Hang Seng (currently) -264.05 @ 28,136.29
07:05am A very early start for today as I am joining some friends on a track day in Norfolk later this morning – this means no trading today for me — some emailing and Skype calls before that though.
U.S. markets could not sustain Monday’s levels and dropped back during yesterday’s trading session on disappointing economic data and the looming FOMC meeting later this evening. With trading volume expected to be fairly low today, traders were adjusting their positions yesterday before the Fed’s statement at 19:00 UK time tonight. Here in Europe yesterday there was also worse than expected numbers for French and German PMI and UK GDP so recent optimism may well have been misplaced although final judgement can wait for the Federal Reserve’s thoughts later today.
Gold prices continued its rebound yesterday and finished almost $10 up at £1210 and is now at the top of the narrow band that it has been in for the past month but if the U.S. delay raising their interest rate this could well give added impetus for Gold to climb further, another reason traders will be very interested in the rhetoric this evening. My Brent Crude chart shows the bullish sentiment is slowing slightly this week but there maybe a support developing around $62:75 which will help another move up after the profit-takers have finished filling their wallets. The U.S. WTI Crude chart is broadly similiar although it is showing itself to be more oversold at the moment so looks poised for a move up by the end of this week. I will send a out a screenshot of my Bent Crude chart just to illustrate my thoughts.
Market Close Tuesday 28th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 +21.45 @ 18,080.14 S&P 500 +4.76 @ 2,117.699 NASDAQ +59.71 @ 4,536.78 FTSE 100 +17.03 @ 7,070.70 UK AIM +2.45 @ 753.43 DAX 30 +87.27 @ 11,810.85 CAC 40 +22.54 @ 5,201.45 IBEX +79.60 @ 11,505.40 Nikkei 225 (Today) -69.42 @ 19,950.62 Hang Seng (currently) +408.84 @ 28,469.82
08:15am A relaxed start and nice quiet day at home for me today, catching up on emails and doing some chart watching. Bike ride at some stage as well obviously
Although the Dow Jones 30 did not quite manage it, the wider S&P 500 index did manage another all -time high during intraday trading yesterday when it briefly hit 2126 mainly due to strong commodity prices before falling back down late in the session as traders adjusted their positions ahead of Apple’s quarterly results release after market close. Europe’s markets were generally bullish as well on news that the Greek Government’s negotiation team had been ‘reshuffled’ in a bid to try to reach a hurried settlement with its paymasters before the end of the month when they have to find over a €1billion to public sector pay workers and cover other costs.
As I am writing this there is news out of BP’s latest figures which have come in ahead of expectations, the city was expecting profits of $1.2 billion but have announced $2.6 billion which was helped partly by the recent rise on crude values plus the fact that over the past 6 months they have been making the company much more lean after the enormous costs involved with the Gulf Of Mexico oil spill in 2010. A weak U.S. Dollar has once again helped the value of Gold and yesterday’s session was another such occasion, it rose over $23 by the end of the day and is now above the $1200 level again, so it is now at a critical level and can go either way in the next few days.
Market Close Monday 27th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 +21.45 @ 18,080.14 S&P 500 +4.76 @ 2,117.699 NASDAQ +59.71 @ 4,536.78 FTSE 100 +17.03 @ 7,070.70 UK AIM +2.45 @ 753.43 DAX 30 +87.27 @ 11,810.85 CAC 40 +22.54 @ 5,201.45 IBEX +79.60 @ 11,505.40 Nikkei 225 (Today) -69.42 @ 19,950.62 Hang Seng (currently) +408.84 @ 28,469.82
08:25am Just looking through my selection of favourite charts and the only thing that is possibly setting up is a support/resistance ‘Magic-Line’ pattern on Brent Crude.
08:40am I am now in a ‘long’ Brent Crude position with a 29 pip stop loss.
10:10am Brent price still going strong, my trade is currently at +14 pips.
11:00am Off out with a neighbour on a cycle ride in a minute so I’ve closed my trade off – it has managed +63 pips.
14:50pm Just got into a ‘short’ position on my Dax 30 chart – it’s a trendFX trade with a 68 pip stop loss, slightly higher than normal.
19:25pm We are off out for the evening in a short while so I have just closed off my Dax trade at +70 pips. It has been higher but I have been outside in the garden for most of the afternoon so missed closing it off earlier with a bigger profit but no matter as I have still managed around 1:1. Total for the day’s trading has therefore come in at +133 pips.
07:15am At home here with Max all day doing some final work on the new ‘Long-Term-Trading’ manual so not sure whether I’ll be doing any chart watching as well – keep an eye on this diary for any updates.
On the whole last week was a good one for most world markets with record highs in the U.S. and in Asia the Nikkei 225 index reach a new 15 year high, although European indices were less buoyant but broadly positive after the previous week’s volatility. Most traders seem to be in a positive mood at the start of this week as they wait for central bank news from both the U.S. and Japan on Wednesday/Thursday. Disappointing economic data out last week in the States gives market participants hope that the Fed will be in no hurry for an early interest rate rise so the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq should all be fairly positive for the next few days, so we may see the leading DJ 30 up again at the 18,200 level that we last witnessed during the latter part of March.
European equities had a more subdued ride last week as the spectre of a Greek exit from the Eurozone continues to haunt the markets and they failed to reach the near-time highs of their counterparts across the Atlantic and here in the UK the FTSE 100 is currently sitting in the middle of a narrow trading band that it’s been in for the past week or so after hitting an all-time intraday high of 7132 two weeks ago.
Over on the oil market, prices are continuing to be supported by lower production in the U.S. together with unrest in the Middle East region as reports come in of increased attacks from Saudi Arabia and its allies against Yemen. This unrest has not yet disrupted OPEC member’s output but it is perceived to be a problem in the near future so has the effect of rallying futures contracts in the region.
Market Close Friday 24th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 +21.45 @ 18,080.14 S&P 500 +4.76 @ 2,117.699 NASDAQ +59.71 @ 4,536.78 FTSE 100 +17.03 @ 7,070.70 UK AIM +2.45 @ 753.43 DAX 30 +87.27 @ 11,810.85 CAC 40 +22.54 @ 5,201.45 IBEX +79.60 @ 11,505.40 Nikkei 225 (Today) -69.42 @ 19,950.62 Hang Seng (currently) +408.84 @ 28,469.82
07:55am Here at home this morning catching up on emails and doing some chart watching then travelling this afternoon to Southwold for a week or so.
The U.S. S&P 500 index hit its all time high intraday yesterday in the last few hours of the session before retreating back slightly, this level has not been seen since the 25th of February. The Dow Jones also had a positive day and was spurred on by positive earnings and higher oil prices although negative home sales numbers should have dampened traders buying tendencies.
Here in Europe indices were under a certain amount of downward pressure as the Greek government are still unable to reach an agreement with its lenders although Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said that most of the negotiations are complete and there are just a few points to sort out. Euro finance ministers carry on the discussions in Riga today with the hope that all will be settled and they can unlock the next raft of loans for the beleaguered country.
As you may have seen from my one of my trades yesterday, Crude Oil staged a good bullish move for most of yesterday after worries about a possible drop in production across the Middle East due to renewed booming by Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen. WTI Crude rose $1:20 to $57:48 plus here in the UK Brent Crude had a similiar move up and is now well above the previous resistance level at $63:00 and this morning there has been another raft of prices rises and is now sitting at $65:10. Although U.S. equity markets are pushing higher this week, Gold traders can see bearish clouds on the horizon and this sentiment pushed the value up $6 yesterday to $1193:30 and there is now the prospect of the price now reaching the top of the narrow channel it’s been in so watch out for a valuation of $1208 soon.
Market Close Thursday 23rd April 2015: Dow Jones 30 -85.34 @ 17,949.59 S&P 500 -3.11 @ 2,079.29 NASDAQ +18.58 @ 4,435.98 FTSE 100 +10.80 @ 7,062.93 UK AIM +1.89 @ 750.94 DAX 30 +47.67 @ 11,939.58 CAC 40 +5.05 @ 5,192.64 IBEX +37.70 @ 11,422.30 Nikkei 225 (Today) +181.28 @ 20,090.37 Hang Seng (currently) +112.06 @ 27,962.55
08:55am There maybe a ‘long’ trade on my Brent Crude chart coming up – it’s a trendFX strategy 3 pattern. There is also a possible UTB on my S&P 500 chart but the price is reversing now so that one looks less likely.
09:10am I am in the trendFX position now with a 38 pip stop loss and as I am off for a cycle ride in a minute with friends so I have set-up a take profit at +38 pips. The S&P 500 UTB did not come off, the price is now heading north.
11:05am Just back home and seen that my Brent Trade has been closed at +38 pips.
12:15pm MT4 platform off and no more trading for the week, I’m off up the A12 now to Suffolk. My total trading profit for the week is +436 pips.
08:10am UK time A lazy day at home today after an extremely busy day and late night in London. I’ll report any trades I have as the day progresses.
European markets experienced a largely negative trading session yesterday on continued worries about the Greek situation which now involves sequestration of public funds by the beleaguered government but with overnight gains in Asia together with a buoyant U.S. performance yesterday means that there maybe a bounce upwards today. Corporate earnings in the U.S. continues to fuel their markets and yesterday’s encouraging new home sales numbers helped this bullishness although there does seem to be a ceiling that’s developing which both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 are finding hard to break through.
In the oil market there was a drop in U.S. production but yesterday’s inventory numbers showed another build which was way ahead of expectations and now stocks are now at nearly 490 million barrels which is a level last seen 23 years ago. This news put pressure on WTI Crude and it has formed a resistance level on the daily chart at $58 and is currently sitting well below that at $55:88 with UK Brent Crude in similiar situation, looking as though the bears are becoming stronger. Gold had a negative Wednesday session after bullish U.S. markets kept investors away and it is now around the bottom of the narrow band that is has been travelling in for the past month, so the next few days will be interesting to see if it bounces off its $1180 support level.
Market Close Tuesday 21st April 2015: Dow Jones 30 -85.34 @ 17,949.59 S&P 500 -3.11 @ 2,079.29 NASDAQ +18.58 @ 4,435.98 FTSE 100 +10.80 @ 7,062.93 UK AIM +1.89 @ 750.94 DAX 30 +47.67 @ 11,939.58 CAC 40 +5.05 @ 5,192.64 IBEX +37.70 @ 11,422.30 Nikkei 225 (Today) +181.28 @ 20,090.37 Hang Seng (currently) +112.06 @ 27,962.55
08:15am Just waiting for a possible UTB trade to trigger on my German Dax 30 chart. The price is quite volatile at the moment so I may not get in if it triggers by going lower than 11866
08:20am I am now in a ‘short’ position on the Dax with quite a high stop loss (for me) of 74 pips. I’ll send out an email soon to students regarding high stop losses and how to trade with them without any stress.
09:20am The Dax price has come down well after disappointing manufacturing numbers across Europe this morning so I am now out of my position with a +152 pip profit.
13:00pm Had a problem with this blog again, it froze earlier this morning so I’ve not been able to post any new comments – and strangely cannot send emails either so maybe my broadband ? But inbetween a cycle ride and a couple of Skype calls I have managed to take another UTB trade, this time a ‘long’ position on my U.S. WTI chart and with a slightly smaller stop loss – just 29 pips. I am still in the trade and it’s doing ok at the moment.
15:05pm Just come out of my WTI Crude ‘UTB’ position – it has managed +143 pips.
16:10pm Charts off for a while now, going to a friend’s farm for some clay pigeon shooting and a barbeque
23:35pm There was no more trades to report as I’ve been out all evening.
07:25am UK time No trading again for me today as I am spending all day in London visiting some old friends at various spread betting companies.
On the markets yesterday the main U.S. indices had a largely negative day hitting their short term resistance levels and forming reversal candle patterns, so we may see further falls today. Some of the bearish sentiment was blamed on rising crude oil prices although today’s inventories numbers may reverse the climb that’s been occurring for the past month or so. Here in Europe the Greek problem trundles on but the main indices were mainly unaffected by that and the ZEW investor confidence survey that came in surprisingly low compared with previous months.
Here in the UK supermarket giant Tesco has just announced a pre-tax loss of £6.3billion, one of the biggest in British corporate history although a lot of that was ‘accountants shuffling’ as they got their red pens out and wrote down various assets – the actual operating profit came in at £1.4billion which is probably what analysts will concentrate on.
The oil market looks like continuing the move up as U.S. WTI Crude has busted loose from its recent resistance level at $54.30 and it seems as though that it has now turned into a support level as often happens so watch out fo rfurhter bullish trading opportunities although wait for today’s U.S. stock situation at Cushing’s storage facitility before getting into the market!
Market Close Tuesday 21st April 2015: Dow Jones 30 -85.34 @ 17,949.59 S&P 500 -3.11 @ 2,079.29 NASDAQ +18.58 @ 4,435.98 FTSE 100 +10.80 @ 7,062.93 UK AIM +1.89 @ 750.94 DAX 30 +47.67 @ 11,939.58 CAC 40 +5.05 @ 5,192.64 IBEX +37.70 @ 11,422.30 Nikkei 225 (Today) +181.28 @ 20,090.37 Hang Seng (currently) +112.06 @ 27,962.55
07:20am CET (06:20 UK time) An early start for me today as I have a few things to sort out here before I fly back to Stansted this afternoon. No trading for me today or tomorrow as I have a busy Wednesday in London visiting some friends at various spread betting companies.
Europe is the main focus for traders at the moment with Greek bond yields increasing yesterday yet again and are now at nearly 29% with the prospect that this week’s Eurogroup meeting of EU Finance Ministers are not going to reach any kind of concrete agreement. It is also reported that the Greek government issued a call to all local government departments to transfer any excess funds in their bank accounts to them immediately, giving us an idea as to how serious the situation is becoming.
On top of all this there is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment release this morning which gives an idea of how investors and analysts are seeing the German economy as a whole although Friday’s IFO Survey is generally respected more, so there may not be a large correction this morning. The German Dax 30 index has bounced off the 11,600 support level and is heading towards the next resistance area at 12,125 although with the Greek situation in the forefront it seems difficult to see the index reaching the record 12,400 record high from earlier this month.
Across the Atlantic both main indices had a positive session yesterday on the back of positive earnings from Morgan Stanley and Hasbro although less than exciting numbers from computer giant IBM were released after close of trading so there was a bearish reaction in the futures market overnight. As you can see from the numbers below, the wider S&P index of the 500 top U.S. companies has once again travelled over the significant 2100 level and is now looking like it will reach the 2121 record level that was seen in February.
Market Close Monday 20th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 +208.63 @ 18,034.93 S&P 500 +19.22 @ 2,100.40 NASDAQ +65.60 @ 4,417.40 FTSE 100 -8.32 @ 7,052.13 UK AIM -0.63 @ 749.05 DAX 30 +203.21 @ 11,891.91 CAC 40 +44.33 @ 5,187.59 IBEX +25.20 @ 11,384.60 Nikkei 225 (Today) +274.60 @ 19,909.09 Hang Seng (currently) +523.78 @ 27,618.71
08:00am CET (7:00am UK Time) At home for most of today ahead of a trip back to the UK tomorrow – if I have any trades during the day I’ll report back here.
Here in Europe the main news yet again is the spectre of a Greek exit from the EU and its common currency. Last week’s joint IMF – World Bank meeting ended up going into the weekend because of extended discussions about the failure of the government in Greece to come up with it’s latest debt repayment and EU officials are now talking quite openly of the plans that are being made in Brussels for Greece leaving the European Union. This news weighed heavily on European markets last week and collectively they suffered some of their largest losses for 2015 but overnight news from China may well reverse the sentiment as China’s Central Bank – the People’s Bank Of China – cut their Reserve Ratio Requirement (RRR) in an attempt at stimulus after increasingly worrying numbers emerging from the economy as a whole continue although this is not the first cut this year and so far nothing much has changed so many see this as a knee-jerk reaction to problems that are larger than the government is officially acknowledging.
In the U.S. a failure of Bloomberg terminals causing a drop in liquidity together with a drop of over 4% by American Express all contributed to a fall of 1.5% of the main Dow Jones 30 index on Friday but overnight Asian news of the Chinese Central Bank’s economic stimulus should cause a rebound but on the downside, the index may carry on downwards to the next support area at 17,600 (currently +90 at 17,915 this morning on the futures markets)
The crude oil market had a generally bearish session on Friday with the U.S. WTI Crude falling 50 cents to $56:04 after an announcement that OPEC overshot their self imposed production limits by over 800,000 barrels although this was the first negative day of the week as lower production and higher demand in the U.S. kept values bullish.
Market Close Friday 17th April 2015: Dow Jones 30 -279.47 @ 17,826.30 S&P 500 -23.81 @ 2,081.18 NASDAQ -67.03 @ 4,351.80 FTSE 100 -65.82 @ 6,994.63 UK AIM +0.46 @ 749.68 DAX 30 -310.16 @ 11,668.70 CAC 40 -81.23 @ 5,143.26 IBEX -252.30 @ 11,359.40 Nikkei 225 (Today) -18.39 @ 19,634.49 Hang Seng (currently) -608.16 @ 27,044.96
All times below are CET (UK Time +1hr)
10:10am Was off for a quick cycle ride but I’ve just noticed a possible UTB trade developing on my UK FTSE 100 chart so I’ll hang on for a while and see what happens – nothing much else happening on my favourite charts as the week kicks off on the markets.
10:25am I am now in the above mentioned trade – it’s a short position with a 16 pip stop loss. I have set the profit target at 25 pips and am off now for my ride.
11:15am Just back from my cycle ride and my FTSE 100 trade is still live, currently sitting at +9 pips.
12:25pm I have now got into a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart using one of the trendFX patterns with a 23 pip stop loss. My FTSE trade is still running although just a few pips in profit at the moment.
13:25pm The Gold price has hit a short term support level at $1197.0 so I’ve come out of my trade at a price just above that meaning a +48 pip profit. Still in the FTSE 100 position, it’s not really doing much at the moment so I’ll hang on until the U.S. open in an hour to see if things liven up slightly.
15:05pm I’m now in a ‘long’ trendFX position on my German Dax 30 chart with a 20 pip stop loss – and still hanging on in there with the FTSE trade.
15:30pm I have a few things to get sorted before I fly out tomorrow so I’m now out of my FTSE 100 trade, it’s has managed +20 pips but my Dax one is still advancing well so I have set a target at +35 pips.
16:10pm Trade Update: Just looked at my charts as I came through the kitchen and noticed my Dax trade has been closed off at +35 pips, so all in all I’ve managed +103 pips today, a fair start to the week.