07:20am    Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and for the rest of the day I shall be helping the builders as they finally finish the 3-month renovations here.

Market Update:

A mixture of good and bad market news yesterday sent indices up by the end of the session with the U.S. S&P 500 now at the same record level it reached during the last week of April. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi poured cold water on any idea that his money-printing exercise is coming to a premature end which was obviously good news for the European economy but across the Atlantic there was bad economic news in the from of monthly and Core PPI numbers which came in lower than expected and apparently a growing number of Fed members are resolutely against a rate rise in the next 6 months.

This sentiment spilled over to commodities and investors moved across to Gold as a better bet for their money which briefly pushed it above it’s short term resistance level of $1222 although some profit taking has occurred during the overnight Asian session. In the oil markets, OPEC have confirmed they are increasing production to maintain their market share and also U.S. shale producers are also expected to increase their own drilling towards the end of the year due to the recent price rise, so values took a hit yesterday with the U.S. WTI Crude falling nearly half a Dollar to $59:67 by the end of the trading session.

06:55am    Just in the middle of writing my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email which is going out soon and for the rest of the morning I shall be here in the study replying to emails and watching some charts. Any trades I have will be reported here.

Market Update:

European markets had a generally bearish session yesterday as the Euro value rose which always hurts the large exporters and Germany’s GDP numbers came in less than expected. Traders also had the Greek situation in the back of their minds as that crisis trundles on in the background with many commentators and EU officials believing that an exit is coming anyway, it’s just the timeframe that has to be negotiated.  In the U.S. there was also disappointing economic news, this time in the form of retail sales which came in at zero against a prediction of +0.3% and well below last month’s rise of 1.1% and this together with lower than expected earnings reports from JC Penney and Maceys meant that indices struggled and ultimately ended slightly down the day

Wednesday is U.S. Crude Inventories announcement day and yesterday’s numbers showed a slight drop although the refinery utilization rate fell by nearly 2% which raised expectations that oil stockpiles could rise in the coming weeks so WTI Crude fell by $1:20 to end at just over $60.   With disappointing U.S. economic news yesterday putting a possible rate rise back to the end of the year, investors moved back into safe haven products so Gold staged a small rally and ended up nearly $23 on the day and is now very close to its near-term resistance level at $1220.

Trading Diary:

11:55am   I am off out for a long cycle ride with friends shortly but a UTB trade looks to be setting up on my Brent Crude chart so I’ll take it if it triggers and see if it gets to a small profit before I go out.

12:25pm   The Brent trade did trigger and I got into a ‘short’ position about 20 minutes ago, my stop loss is 15 pips. I am off out now so I’ve set profit at 25 pips.

14:20pm    Got back just after 2pm and I’m already in a ‘long’ position on my Dax 30 chart, it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 38 pip stop loss. My earlier Brent trade was stopped out at -15 pips.

15:15pm   Off out shopping with the Blonde so as the trade is at +66 pips so far so I’ve put the stop at +30 pips and I’ll see where it’s at when we get back.

17:55pm    Just got home and as the trade was at +110 pips I’ve closed it off — happy with that and it gives me +95 pips for the day.

07:30am   Been up and hour already doing my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and as it’s a sunny day here in Suffolk I am off sailing with friends later but first a few hours of emails, Skype calls in some chart watching.

Market Update:

European markets are still being influenced by the Greek debt repayment situation and there’s not many traders that believe that the new Syriza anti-austerity government are going to enable the country to stay in the EU and repay all their loans on time. There has been much in the news over the last few days about how they are struggling to find funds to make their latest repayment and their German paymasters seem to be running out of patience and now the IMF has entered the fray with a statement to say they will not involve themselves with any type of rescue for the beleagured country. This sentiment has spilled over into the Bond markets in Italy, Spain and Germany all falling dramatically yesterday as jitters spread across trading floors in Europe.

There is a hope that the rally in Crude Oil markets will continue as rumours of lower stocks in the U.S. emerge and later today we will see actual numbers. A small drop in production in the States should prop up prices and WTI Crude looks to heading towards its $62.50 resistance level again. The Gold chart is still looking for some sort of direction although a possible fall in equity markets here in Europe caused by the Greek situation may well drive traders and investors into safe haven products.

Trading Diary:

08:30am  Just waiting to see if the FTSE 100 prices rises above 6963 to trigger a ‘long’ trendFX trade (strategy-3)

08:45am    I am now in the above position with a 23 pip stop loss.

09:25am   There’s economic news out in 5 minutes so I’m now out of my trade at +23 pips.

10:10am   There’s a UTB opportunity that has just come up but there’s also more UK economic news out so the sensible thing to do is leave this one alone.

23:05pm   Been out for most of the day sailing so no more trades to report.

06:55am   An early start for me today as I’m currently getting my first ‘Daily-Trading-Guidance’ information email compiled for new subscribers and delivered before 7:30am this morning – the rest of the morning will be spent here at home getting through the hundreds of emails that have come in over the last few days regarding this new service. If I have any trades I’ll report the details here.

Market Update:

European markets had a largely negative session yesterday due to falling bond values and ongoing Greek debt worries – although the ruling Syriza party has stumped up  their latest loan repayment, there seemed to be too much rushing around trying to find enough money to give anyone confidence that their next one will be paid on time. In the U.S. there was also pressure in bond markets and U.S. treasuries witnessed a sharp sell-off and this sentiment brought both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 indices down by around 0.5% apiece by the end of the trading session.

Crude oil markets have been in decline for the past three trading sessions on renewed worries of oversupply in both the U.S. and here in Europe but my daily WTI Crude chart shows strength for a new move upwards. Also this morning a past Qatari  energy minister has said that OPEC should not change its production target in an attempt to raise the value of crude oil so this will also place pressure on values.

Trading Diary:

10:10am   Just had a quick look at my charts and there could be a potential ‘long’ trade on my Brent Crude chart using one of the trendFX set-ups.

10:25am  The Brent Crude price has risen above $65.67 so I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 30 pip stop loss.

12:55pm   Off to lunch in a minute, so I’ve closed off my Brent Crude trade at +60 pips.

18:20pm   Sitting here doing some Skype calls and emails for the last hour and I’ve just got into a ‘short’ UTB trade on my U.S. WTI Crude chart – my stop loss is 20 pips. As happens sometimes, there is also the same opportunity on my Brent Crude chart as they move similiarly.

19:15pm   Quick trade – and out now. Managed +39 pips.

06:55am   An early start for me today as I am doing a trial run this morning of my new ‘Trade Guidance’ daily email service (more details here in the diary soon).  Apart from that, I shall be around the house most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time.

Two main pieces of news is dominating the market at the moment, firstly the upbeat employment numbers released in the U.S. on Friday and also the Chinese Central Bank’s decision to cut their minimum lending rate by 25 base points to 5.10%.  Friday’s Non Farm Payroll number indicated that the U.S. employers had added just over 223,000 jobs to the economy in April although the general consensus is that the Fed will not take this as a hint to raise their interest rate earlier than the end of the year. All this sentiment conspired to lift both main U.S. indices on Friday and the main Dow Jones 30 rose over 220 points to end at 18,191 with the broader S&P 500 also gaining well over 1% on the day.

China’s interest rate drop is a move by their Central Bank to boost development although the largely government-driven slowdown in the economy was widely tipped as the recent non-stop rise could not really be sustained for long periods. They also have a problem in their property sector after a sharp rise in prices due to speculative developers although last month’s tax cuts and this latest rate drop is not going to help stop another housing bubble.

Here in Europe the Greek problem is ongoing with repayment headlines all over the press – there is over €2.4billion due before the middle of next month to its IMF and ECB paymasters so there’s going to be more searching behind the sofa yet again in order to meet their obligations. The situation is made more difficult as the new anti-austerity Syriza government has said it will not go back on election promises, so making any negotiations with the rest of Europe tricky.

Market Close Friday 8th May 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -142.20 @ 17,928.20  S&P  500  -25.03 @ 2,089.46  NASDAQ  -73.22 @ 4,409.39  FTSE 100  -58.37 @ 6,927.58  UK AIM  -1.34 @ 751.68  DAX 30  -292.17 @ 11,327.68  CAC 40  -107.90 @ 4,974.07  IBEX   -313.50 @ 11,115.60   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +11.62 @ 19,531.63  Hang Seng (currently)  +74.88 @ 27,830.42

13:25pm   No trading to report this morning, I’ve so busy doing Skype calls and replying to emails regarding this new ‘Daily-Trading-Guidance’ service that I’ve only glanced at my charts twice in the past 5 hours and I’ve not even had a bike ride yet today.  Time for lunch at Lord Nelson I feel.

14:40pm  Got back 5 minutes ago and almost immediately I spotted a ‘short’ UTB trade triggering on my FTSE 100 chart, so I am in the market with a 21 pip stop loss.

18:00pm   Been in and out of the house all afternoon so I just let my FTSE trade run-on but I’ve just closed it off as the volume has understandably dropped off the cliff as the European trading session has finished – but the result is +28 pips.

As regular customers will be aware, there is now a daily ‘Trading Guidance’ email service running early each morning which gives home-based traders a broad perspective on the markets and gives detailed information on around a dozen different indices, commodities and forex pairs.

The service is designed to give you advanced warning about upcoming trades on higher timeframes so you do not need to be sitting around all day watching charts – as most people simply do not have the time unlike I do — you can simply set-up any trades first thing in the morning and then get on with your day.

The education I will also be sharing with you on a daily basis will make you a more confident, consistent and professional trader – for full details of this service just email HERE

05:50am    A very early start for me this morning sorting out some family stuff – plus no trading either as it’s Non Farm Payrolls day once again.

Ahead of the major U.S. employment numbers, the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 finished up after a bearish start caused by the previous Asian session and Europe was mostly ahead as well with the notable exception of here in the UK as we go into the final hours of the General Election.  Reporting on this at the moment shows that in all likelihood Cameron will return as Prime Minister and no matter what your personal opinion maybe, that is undoubtedly good for the economy so the markets should look favourably on the result.

Back to the U.S. Non Farm Payrolls announcement and considering the previous week’s ADP numbers all expectations are for a fall in unemployment in the world’s largest economy and this will undoubtedly increase expectations of an early Fed rate rise, so you could presume that markets may react negatively today after the initial rally ?

My U.S. WTI Crude oil daily chart shows a negative session yesterday after a reversal candle on Wednesday as we see some profit taking amid worries over Middle Eastern troubles again and UK Brent Crude is largely following suit although I can see the chart is showing some oversold traits so we may see a bullish reversal soon

Market Close Thursday 7th May 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -142.20 @ 17,928.20  S&P  500  -25.03 @ 2,089.46  NASDAQ  -73.22 @ 4,409.39  FTSE 100  -58.37 @ 6,927.58  UK AIM  -1.34 @ 751.68  DAX 30  -292.17 @ 11,327.68  CAC 40  -107.90 @ 4,974.07  IBEX   -313.50 @ 11,115.60   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +11.62 @ 19,531.63  Hang Seng (currently)  +74.88 @ 27,830.42

07:35am    Another day at home catching up on emails, doing Skype calls and also helping the builders so I will report any trades I have here.

The two U.S. indices markets had a day of bearish sentiment after the ADP emplyment numbers came in below 200,000 for a second  month in a row, hinting that the March drop was not a one-time event and strongly suggesting that the U.S. economy is slowing. This news plus comments last night from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen regarding equity valuations is putting the brakes on an early rate rise, which should really be forcing markets up not down – trading is an interesting job sometimes.

WTI Crude got a boost in buying activity yesterday as the weekly stock inventories came in with a drop of nearly 4 million barrels which is the first decline in four months and this news together with an escalating problem in Yemen which may cause production problems for OPEC sent the price up over $3:50 during the day although a lot of the gains were wiped out in late trading after some concerted profit taking by traders. My daily WTI chart has now formed a reversal candle with an overbought bias so there maybe some consolidation occurring for the rest of the week.

It’s voting day here in the UK to elect a new coalition government so traders in London may well be sitting on their hands for the next 24 hours waiting to see who gets in, although it does seem as though it’s going to be another Liberal/Conservative team. Once the results are out tomorrow there is then the U.S. Non Farm Payroll numbers so there’s going to be an interesting end to the week on the markets.

Market Close Wednesday 6th May 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -142.20 @ 17,928.20  S&P  500  -25.03 @ 2,089.46  NASDAQ  -73.22 @ 4,409.39  FTSE 100  -58.37 @ 6,927.58  UK AIM  -1.34 @ 751.68  DAX 30  -292.17 @ 11,327.68  CAC 40  -107.90 @ 4,974.07  IBEX   -313.50 @ 11,115.60   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +11.62 @ 19,531.63  Hang Seng (currently)  +74.88 @ 27,830.42

11:55am   Been in and out of the house all morning so not really seen much on my charts but I am just waiting to see if a UTB pattern completes on my FTSE 100 chart.

14:50pm   The earlier UTB trade did trigger so I am in that position with a 26 pip stop loss and I am also now in a ‘short’ position on my UK Brent Crude chart using one of the trendFX set-ups. The stop loss on this one is 49 pips, a bit higher than usual but the market is moving very well so there’s plenty of potential if the market keeps going in the same direction.

16:45pm    Down to the harbour now for a couple of hours so I’ve closed off both trades.  FTSE 100 +55 pips   Brent Crude +79 pips.

07:30am    Another day at home catching up on the hundreds of emails I’ve had over the past few days about the new ‘Long-Term-Trading’ manual – I will also be doing some chart watching from time to time.

Here in Europe the main focus is two fold although the Greek situation is trumping the UK General Election at the moment. News out yesterday showed that both the British and German government had already made plans for a Greek exit from the the EU and more commentators are coming forward to say that it’s not going to be as big a problem than was first thought. The bigger problem is letting the new anti-austerity Syriza party negotiate their way out of the countries debt repayment commitments as this will signal a green light to other European anti-austerity parties to have a shot at government.

The markets had a generally bearish day yesterday with the U.S. reporting a disappointing monthly trade deficit, the worst for over 6 years and European indices still being dragged down by Greece. Overnight there was slightly better news though in the form of April’s Chinese Services PMI data which although not great did surpass March’s figure and this together with some bargain hunting by traders should give a boost to European markets first thing this morning.

Crude oil markets continue their march upwards with a positive trading session on Tuesday and both WTI Crude and UK Brent Crude are now well above any recent resistance areas – the lows of January and March now seem a distant memory as WTI looks towards the $65 level. Gold on the other hand is still in a generally bearish trend although it’s still stuck in its narrow trading corridor, the behaviour of the major indices over the next few weeks is going to direct the overall sentiment.

Market Close Tuesday 5th May 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -142.20 @ 17,928.20  S&P  500  -25.03 @ 2,089.46  NASDAQ  -73.22 @ 4,409.39  FTSE 100  -58.37 @ 6,927.58  UK AIM  -1.34 @ 751.68  DAX 30  -292.17 @ 11,327.68  CAC 40  -107.90 @ 4,974.07  IBEX   -313.50 @ 11,115.60   Nikkei 225 (Today)  +11.62 @ 19,531.63  Hang Seng (currently)  +74.88 @ 27,830.42

09:30am   Not much happening on my charts at the moment so out for a cycle ride now.

14:35pm    It’s been a quiet day for trading, no set-ups yet on my charts so I am going to get out into the fresh air for the rest of the day and help the builders out the back.

07:35am UK time.    After a few days away from the markets it’s back to normal today – I shall be here at home for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.

European traders this week will be concentrating on the UK elections on Thursday (and results before markets open on Friday) with prospects of another hung parliament facing us. The markets never enjoy indecision so there may well be a few days of sideways movement on the FTSE 100 before a day of increased trading volume on the last day of the week. Main news after the overnight Asian session is that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut its minimum lending rate for the second time this year, it is now sitting at 2.25% down by 0.25%.

Worries over a slowing of the Chinese economy has prompted many other Asian countries to also loosen their monetary policy so Canada, South Korea and India have also followed China’ lead in dropping their central bank minimum lending rate. Poor economic outlook and rising property prices was cited as the main reason for the RBA’s decision together with a strong Australian Dollar and as expected the currency did fall against the U.S. Dollar in the past few hours.

In the U.S. there are now renewed worries over the strength of their economy after disappointing ISM Manufacturing numbers for last month and traders fears maybe confirmed at the end of the week as the major Non Farm Payroll announcement is out a week late due to public holidays. There are now a growing number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members that are retreating to the December rate rise camp with the Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans suggesting on Friday that even early 2016 may now be too early.

Market Close Monday 4th May 2015:   Dow Jones 30  -74.61 @ 18,035.53  S&P  500  -7.91 @ 2,106.85  NASDAQ  -27.11 @ 4,488.15  FTSE 100  -84.25 @ 6,946.28  UK AIM  -1.45 @ 752.40  DAX 30  -378.94 @ 11,432.72  CAC 40  -133.99 @ 5,039.39  IBEX   -228.80 @ 11,378.90   Nikkei 225 (Today)  -482.89 @ 19,576.06  Hang Seng (currently)  -264.05 @ 28,136.29

10:45am   Just back from a long cycle ride up the coastal path and I am now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart using a trendFX strategy – the stop loss is 21 pips.

15:00pm   Not much happening on my charts during the few times I’ve glanced at them today but I am now in a ‘short’ on the German Dax 30 chart using the same trendFX strategy as my WTI trade. Stop loss is quite high at 69 pips but there is quite a high movement on this index so far today.  I did miss a ‘long’ Gold trade at lunchtime while I was at the Lord Nelson having lunch…

17:35pm  I am off out in a minute so I have just come out of both my positions — the WTI Crude trade has come in at +130 pips and the Dax one is +104 pips.