07:20am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and I shall be spending the rest of the morning here in the study catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
Traders in Europe and also further afield are now looking towards the outcome of Euro Group meetings to see whether a compromise can be reached with regard to Greece’s impending debt payment on Friday. Mario Draghi, Angela Merkel and France’s François Hollande have apparently put forward suggestions in private meeting with Greek officials that pave the way for an amicable outcome as long as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gives some ground which up to now has not been seen. It is widely accepted that if the EU, ECB and IMF give way too much with these Greek negotiations and are seen to let Tsipras off the hook as far as their repayment commitments in Spain, Portugal and Italy as well as any other problem countries that have not yet been investigated. An interesting week ahead…
Over in the U.S. the economic data released yesterday showed better than expected numbers in manufacturing and construction and this helped the main Dow Jones 30 index move up nearly 30 points by the close of business with the wider S&P 500 following closely behind – up 4.34 at 2111.73 and it does look as though the index may make further attempts at the recent highs it reached a few weeks ago. Crude oil markets were quite quiet yesterday as many traders are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the U.S. crude stock situation tomorrow and the more important employment numbers that are released on Friday.
Trading Diary:
10:10am Just been out for a cycle ride but back now and going through some favourite charts – a few possibilities but nothing certain so far.
10:45am If the price rises on my WTI Crude chart to over $60:79 it will trigger a ‘long’ trendFX trade.
11:05am I am now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart with a 22 pip stop loss.
12:40pm Off out for lunch at the Lord Nelson so I’ve just closed off my WTI Crude trade at +27 pips as it could become volatile when the U.S. session starts soon.
14:30pm Very windy — so going sailing !
06:45am An early start for me today as we’re away soon on a 4-day long weekend break to the New Forest – back Monday evening so no Market Update on Monday morning.
Market Update:
As the 3-day G7 meeting comes to an end, traders will be listening carefully to any closing comments that will give the markets any concrete direction. Yesterday we saw equities sell off in early trading as concerns grew that Greece would not be able to meet its debt repayment obligations next week but later in the day markets recovered slightly as a Syriza spokesman came out to say that measures were falling into place that will allow the funds to be handed over – no doubt this story will continue to excite during this last trading day of the week. There were conflicting comments on the Greek situation yesterday with ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio saying that he is convinced that Greece will not be forced out of the Euro but IMF President Christine Lagarde stated that she could not rule out an exit in the coming months.
Over in the Crude Oil market, the U.S. Department Of Energy released its latest crude oil inventories which unsurprisingly showed a fall in stock being held at Cushing, Wyoming. This encouraging news caused U.S. WTI Crude to shoot up 36 cents to end the session at almost $58:00 and the daily chart is now showing a bullish reversal candle for a possible move up in value with UK Brent Crude following closely behind.
07:40am Nice lazy day at home ahead of a long weekend away beginning tomorrow morning. If I have any trades during the day I will report back here.
Market Update:
The markets yesterday were boosted by U.S. technology and healthcare shares as the Nasdaq index hit a record high and this bullishness spilled over into the overnight Asian session with the Nikkei 225 ending up on the day. There was also some guarded optimism yesterday over the Greek debt repayment situation although rumours of the new government having enough funds to pay the next instalment has been largely quashed by the ECB late on in the day even though the Syriza party has insisted it does have the money ready and waiting.
European markets are still struggling to find any lasting direction and although the G7 meetings are underway it’s really the ongoing problems with Greece that will give traders clues in the next week or so. The slight hope of a amicable outcome momentarily halted the Euro’s sharp decline and the EUR/USD ended 25 pips up at $1.0900 and after the overnight Asian session it still in a bullish mood, currently sitting at $1.0929.
Crude oil prices are still falling although today’s U.S. stock situation may reverse this as it is expected the numbers may fall slightly – WTI Crude ended Wednesday’s session at $57:66 and is currently consolidating around the $57:53 level.
Trading Diary:
09:05am The markets are still sorting themselves out as the the European session gets going but have just got into a quick ‘long’ UTB position on my UK FTSE 100 chart — stop loss is just 10 pips.
10:05am Going off for cycle ride with a neighbour so I have closed off the FTSE position as I am happy with the +20 pip profit.
13:10pm No more trading for me today, I’ve just been invited to a clay pigeon shoot down the road.
06:40am A very early start for me today so I can get my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email out — we are out for most of the day as it’s The Blonde’s birthday.
Market Update:
Overnight the Asian markets have seen falls as a result of yesterday’s losses in the U.S. and Europe. Growing worries about the Greek financial problem weighed heavily on shares within EU countries as more comments came out supporting rumours that the new Greek government will not meet their latest debt repayments. In the U.S. the S&P 500 index had its biggest fall this month as a tranche of optimistic economic news and numbers was released yesterday which traders took as a sign that the Fed would look favourably on an earlier interest rate rise.
Crude oil prices are once again coming under pressure, mainly from a strengthening U.S. Dollar together with the fact that OPEC member countries are keeping up production despite the current low prices. U.S. WTI Crude fell over $1:50 during yesterday’s session to finish at $58:35 a barrel and is now testing the support area at $58:00 to see if it’s going to hold. UK’s Brent Crude suffered similiar falls and ended down at $63:95 although it is slightly up this morning after the Asian trading session.
07:55am We arrived back in the UK earlier this morning, so I’m having a lazy day at home today. If I do any chart watching I will report the activity here.
Market Update:
European markets are set to open mixed this morning after a bank holiday break in Germany and the UK yesterday – overnight Asian markets were generally bullish but problems in Greece and Spain is weighing on investor sentiment. There was a rise to record levels for some Asian markets early this morning as the Chinese government announced that they are backing hundreds of joint-venture infrastructure and building projects with private companies which got traders in the buying mood. Here in Europe there are problems brewing in Spain where the government has suffered badly in local elections as the population is staging a backlash after four years of austerity measures. There is a wave of anti-austerity feeling spreading across southern Europe at the moment and if the EU and ECB do not deal with the Greek problems with a strong hand, these new emerging parties will become stronger and emulate the success the Syriza party has enjoyed and that will ultimately end in the partial break-up of the European Union experiment.
In the U.S. the Fed chief Janet Yellen was fairly non-committal in her speech on Friday with regard to the rate rise with markets now pricing in a decision as early as September but more likely December. There was positive inflation data out last week and if the Non Farm Payroll number in eleven days time is also good we may see equity markets fall away from the present high levels.
Trading Diary:
08:55am There’s a possible UTB trade setting up on my Gold chart so I’m keeping a close watch on that one.
09:35am The Gold price has continued downwards so invalidating the possible UTB pattern – and nothing else to report on my charts so I am off for a cycle ride.
12:10pm Just spotted a possible ‘short’ trade setting up on my Brent Crude chart ~ a trendFX strategy-1 pattern.
12:25pm In the Brent Crude position with a 16 pip stop loss.
16:35pm Off out for the evening soon so I’ve closed off my Brent position at +142 pips.
07:30am I’ve a nice relaxing day at home today ahead of a long weekend away in Le Touquet so if I do have any trades I’ll report the details here although with today’s Central Banker’s speeches throughout today, the markets are going to be quiet to begin with.
Market Update:
There was a fairly mixed trading session yesterday as the major markets struggle to find any strong direction ahead of today’s important speeches by Mark Carney, Mario Draghi and finally Fed chief Janet Yellen later this evening. Traders will be listening carefully for any hints regarding future monetary policy and rate decisions with Janet Yellen’s ‘forward-guidance’ will probably be the most widely watched for market movements as she’s in charge of the Central Bank in the largest economy of the world.
Economic data announcements out of the U.S. yesterday caused a slight rise in equities after the CB Leading Index came in with better than expected growth but on the other hand, the existing home sales survey for April fell by over 3% from March. Here in Europe, the ECB are still bullish about the economy for the next few months as their Governing Council announced that it gained momentum in the first pasrt of 2015, mainly down to the bond buying programme it is currently in.
This week’s drop in Crude Oil inventories in the U.S. is still propping up the price with WTI Crude edging further up yesterday to $60:67 higher by nearly $2 but Gold declined during Thursday’s session as equities were slightly up although the overnight Asian session saw slight gains which have all but wiped out yesterday’s losses.
Trading Diary:
08:40am Not much happening on my favourite charts so I’m off on my bike for a brisk ride down the coastal path to Dunwich.
16:55pm While I was out this morning I was invited to a clay-pigeon shoot so there’s no trading to report for the day as I’ve only just got back indoors !
07:20am Just finished and sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and I’m now going to spend the rest of the morning catching up on emails and some chart watching here in the study – plus 3 Skype calls as well with people wanting to start trading.
Market Update:
Overnight Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected which is confirming a general slowdown in their economy is going to put a dampener on the start of today’s European session that’s going to start soon. The U.S. FOMC meeting minutes that were released yesterday also failed to move the markets that much with no real concrete guidance on the next rate rise by the Fed although it does seem as though a June rise is definitely off the cards and according to London-based traders I’ve talked to this week, the timing is now odds-on for September/October. This sentiment boosted the Gold price yesterday as investors need more return for their money and this resulted in the yellow metal rose nearly $2 on the day to $1210.10.
According to yesterday’s Crude Oil Inventories there was an unexpected draw on Crude Oil stocks at Cushing, Wyoming which mainly down to increased refinery production in the U.S. as a whole and this news sent WTI Crude up nearly 50 cents to $58:78 per barrel and on the back of this, UK Brent Crude rose 33 cents as well, ending the day at $64:78 and so far this morning the bullish mood is still present, currently sitting at $65:29.
Trading Diary:
09:45am Nothing much to see on my favourite charts, so I’m off for a cycle ride along the coast path.
13:40pm Back from lunch a short while ago and I’m just watching my WTI Crude chart to see if the price rises to form a reversal candle in 5 minutes which may trigger a ‘long’ trendFX trade.
14:00pm The price did rise sufficiently to trigger a trade so I’m now in a ‘long’ position with a 43 pip stop loss.
16:05pm Some friends have just arrived for a barbeque so I’ve closed off my WTI position to go outside now – it managed +86 pips.
07:25am I had an early start this morning as I am off for most of the day sailing but for the next few hours I shall be here in the study replying to emails and doing some Skype calls with new traders. I will watch some charts between now and 10 o’clock before I leave.
Market Update:
European markets had a good session yesterday after European Central Bank member Benoit Coeure announced that the ECB will be ‘front loading’ its bond buying programme to pre-empt that usual summer slowdown in the European economy. This news caused the EUR/USD pair to fall to 1.1118 and the price is further down after the overnight Asian session but gave the German DAX 30 index a 2.23% boost upwards, gaining 259 pips.
U.S. equities in comparison had a mixed day with housing starts data for the country coming in at a 7-year high and although this news gave traders some optimism to get their buying boots on there was also worry that an expanding economy would then trigger a rate rise sooner than the anticipated January 2016 – the Dow Jones index of 30 leading U.S. companies came in 13 points ahead at 18,312 but the wider S&P 500 posted a 1.37 point fall.
In the oil market, a note from Goldman Sachs speculated a continuing oversupply by OPEC and U.S. companies is going to push prices back down towards $45 in their opinion and this news conspired to force sellers into the market and WTI Crude fell just over $2 to $58:27 by the end of the day. UK Brent Crude followed suit as expected and closed at $64:33.
07:30am In and out the house today as I’ve 2 cars to take for servicing but if I have any trades I’ll report them here.
Market Update:
With higher highs on U.S. equity markets yesterday caused by weak data (Bad news is good news – remember ?) and overnight the Asian session was also positive so Europe should open up this morning although news out yesterday that the new Greek government may refuse to pay their next debt repayment to the IMF – €750 million that’s due at the end of this week. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was heard to claim yesterday that he cannot see any type of agreement this week with his paymasters without a restructuring of his country’s long-term debt and a straight in/out referendum looks to be on the cards now. This caused the Euro to drop nearly 130 pips yesterday although it’s still in a bullish trend and the daily chart is showing good signs of another move up.
As the Euro fell yesterday against the U.S. Dollar there was pressure on crude oil values already and then Saudi Arabia came out with news that they have had the highest monthly oil production for 13 years and exports also exceeding recent highs. This all meant that WTI Crude fell over 25 cents to nd the day at $60:37 per barrel with UK Brent Crude having a similarly weak day although it is now sitting at a moving average support, gearing up for a possible move up.
Trading Diary:
10:40am Just waiting for a possible ‘long’ trade on my Brent Crude chart.
11:05am The Brent Crude price did rise sufficiently a short while ago to trigger a UTB trade so I’m in a ‘long’ position with a 24 pip stop loss.
12:25pm Off out for a quick lunch now so closed off the Brent position. It came out at +30 pips.
14:00pm I’ve two Skype calls now and then I shall be out for the rest of the afternoon/early evening.
07:25am Another new week on the markets and I shall be mainly around the house today catching up on emails and doing some chart watching. Just sent out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email that works in conjunction with my ‘Long-Term-Trading’ system.
Market Update:
Here in Europe the Greek situation is once again in the spotlight this week as another tranche of repayments is due at the end of the week. There has been 110 days of negotiations between the ruling anti-austerity Syriza party and the IMF and ECB with no real way forward yet and large cash movements out of the country over the past two months is hurting bank liquidity which in turn is causing panic in that sector. It is now looking more certain that there will be a national referendum to see if the Greek people actually want to stay in the EU and with rumours across trading floors that the next loan repayment will not materialise, this maybe announced quicker than expected.
U.S. markets ended the week ahead and also near all time highs yet again and with lacklustre economic news on Friday, the bulls are once again hoping that the interest rate rise will be delayed towards the end of the year, so unless there is a good reversal candle on the S&P 500 or Dow Jones daily charts, there is the probability of further moves up past the current resistance level that I’ve highlighted in my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email today.
On the Crude Oil market, OPEC is still flexing it’s muscles in an attempt to maintain market share and will not be cutting production any time soon to keep the price up, it has done that before in the distant past in an attempt to prop up the value without success, so their strategy is now to carry on regardless and hope that other producers fall first. As the price has risen slightly, the lean U.S. shale producers are now coming back on track which is going to put further pressure on prices in the coming months.
Trading Diary:
16:00pm I have not done much chart watching today as I’ve been double busy with Skype calls and over a 100 emails that came in over the weekend about the daily email service but I am just watching my S&P 500 chart to see if the price is going to rise sufficiently to trigger a ‘long’ trade. It’s a possible trendFX strategy-3 set-up.
16:15pm The S&P price has now gone above 21244 so I am in the above position — my stop loss is 40 pips.
22:40pm Had some technical issues earlier which has meant that I’ve not been able to update this diary – but I did close my S&P trade off just before 9pm at +58 pips
