07:35am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and I shall be spending the rest of the morning here in the study catching up on emails and watching my favourite charts as well. I will report back here if I have any trades.
Market Update:
Trader friends working on floors in London that I spoke to yesterday seem to have now decided that the Greek situation is beyond hope and an exit from the EU is now inevitable and they are now looking for other reasons for any market participation. U.S. equities had a fairly positive day on Tuesday even though the Housing Starts numbers were down on expectations, it would seem that corporate activity is keeping the markets up at the moment with the main Dow Jones 30 index finishing 113 points up at 17905 with the broader S&P 500 up a similiar percentage. European equities also had a fairly positive day after Monday’s sell-off and it does look as though a Greek exit is partly priced into the market – although it is now firmly on the cards it will still take quite a while to complete and will be fairly orderly.
As it’s Wednesday we have the weekly U.S. Crude Oil stock situation in Cushing, Wyoming and there is an expectation of a reduction in stockpiles which together with reduced drilling caused WTI Crude to rise during yesterday’s session by almost 50 cents to $60:04 and on the Daily chart the bullish trend is just about hanging on with support at $56:40.
Trading Diary:
08:40am Nothing really occurring on my selection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride.
11:25am Just got into a ‘short’ position on my FTSE 100 chart using a trendFX strategy-3 set-up. My stop loss is a whopping 11 pips.
13:40pm My trade did get to +15 pips but the price now has very quickly shot up as the U.S. session is starting up so I’ve closed it off at break-even.
13:55pm Off for a late lunch and then clay pigeon shooting this afternoon
07:45am After a busy few days I’m spending today here at home catching up on emails and doing some chart watching from time to time. I will report any trades I have during the day here.
Market Update:
If you were trading yesterday you’ll have noticed the generally bearish slant to most equity markets caused by the ongoing Greek debt situation. There now seems to be more rhetoric rather than definite solutions with the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras stating that he is now finished giving concessions to his paymasters and it is now time for them to accept his suggestions on cost cutting. The IMF has already walked away from the talks and Thursday’s meeting between Greece and their other lenders is now seen as the final chance to come to an agreement although no one seems to be very optimistic about the outcome so we are seeing a general move out of equities until the problem is resolved.
In the U.S. tomorrow’s FOMC meeting will probably see Fed Chairman Janet Yellen start to drop hints regarding her imminent rate rise and traders will be watching for any slight clues as to her timing to increase the countries minimum lending rate. There has been generally good economic news over the past few months but there is the downside risk of fall out from the impending Greek exit and also the Chinese industrial slowdown. Gold traders and investors are taking advantage of equity uncertainty with the price rising by over $5 during yesterday’s session to end the day at $1186.40 although it has experienced a severe drop as European markets opened this morning and is now sitting at $1182.10.
09:55am Just back from a quick cycle and the only excitement I can see on my selection of favourite charts is a possible ‘short’ trade on the S&P 500.
10:10am The S&P 500 price has just dropped enough to trigger a ‘short’ trendFX strategy-1 position and I am now in the market with a 29 pip stop loss.
12:15pm I have just come indoors to check my charts before I go out for lunch and I can see my ‘short’ S&P 500 trade has just been stopped out.
14:25pm Just got into a ‘long’ position on the German Dax 30 this time — it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 37 pip stop loss.
19:50pm Been down on the beach for most of the afternoon but got back a few minutes ago and closed my Dax trade that’s been running since after lunch — its come in at +87 pips so my total for the day is +58 pips.
09:35am A late Market Update as we have friends staying for a few days – which means no trading for me today either. This week I have accumulated +306 pips from the markets.
I will be back trading on Tuesday after our weekend guests have left, so no ‘Market Update’ on Monday.
Market Update:
There has been further developments in the Greek situation – it now transpires that the IMF have walked away from the talks as they feel that no headway is being made. European leaders are also running out of patience with Prime Minister Tsipras as he is rejecting all proposals and it looks more likely that Greece will walk away from their debts and ultimately the Euro. At the moment French, German and UK equity markets are in negative territory and today’s session should prove to be interesting with direction dependent on any news coming out of Brussels.
Over in the U.S., weekly employment claims came in slightly higher than expected and together with solid non farm payroll number last week helped the main Dow Jones index end the day above the significant 18,000 level – it was up 31 points at 18,050 but pressure from Europe and the Fed rate rise may mean the bears will take charge for the next week or so. On my daily chart there was a good bearish reversal candle after yesterday’s session with overbought tendencies as well.
Yesterday it was announced by the International Energy Agency that OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Untied Arab Emirates and Iraq have had a record production month and this news was the main cause of a WTI Crude price drop of over 50 cents to end the day at $60:57 per barrel. In the UK, Brent Crude also had a bearish session yesterday after Wednesday’s reversal candle on the daily chart.
07:25am Just getting down to email replies after sending out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and I also have 6 Skype calls this morning so far. If I have any trades this morning I will post details here and this afternoon it’s hoped that we’ll be sailing, the weather is far too good to be stuck here in the study.
Market Update:
Eagle-eared traders took advantage of a quick Bloomberg news item yesterday and started buying equities after the business channel reported that Angela Merkel was considering relaxing her stance on criteria that was currently stopping Greece accessing the next tranche of bailout funds. There is a meeting between Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the European Commission’s Jean Claude Junker later today so we will see if Bloomberg’s sources were solid or it was just a market manipulation move. On this news U.S. equities rallied to levels higher than we saw as the new year started although there is still the imminent rate rise weighing heavily on the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 so this mini-rally may well be short lived.
Crude Oil markets were given a boost yesterday after U.S. inventory number for Cushing, Wyoming showed that stock declined by nearly 7 million barrels last week as shale producers struggle to regain the lost production after the dramatic price drop of oil last year. Opposing this sentiment is OPEC’s full on production promises and this may put a cap on recent rises, WTI Crude and UK Brent are close to resistance levels so are at important points on the daily charts.
Trading Diary:
08:10am Just got into a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart — it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with an 18 pip stop loss.
11:20am Going on bike ride with a couple of friends so I’ve closed off my Gold trade, happy with the +49 pip score.
07:25am Daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email has just been sent off and I’m now going to sit down and reply to emails for the next few hours. I shall be in and out of the house for most of today so not sure how much chart watching I’ll manage but if do have any trades I will report them here.
Market Update:
Leading the news once again is the up and down negotiations between the Greek anti-austerity Syriza party and the IMF/ECB. Prime Minister Alexis Tzi[ras has submitted some ‘new’ proposals which are so far from any kind of compromise that many commentators are saying that they’re just playing for time to see if Merkel and Holland come back with softer terms. What is certain is that the talks are going to carry on until the end of this month when the next loan repayment is due.
As I mentioned this morning in my ‘Trading-Guidance’ email, it is noticeable that equity markets are starting to lose their bullish momentum and the Greek situation is no doubt contributing to this sentiment as well as an improving U.S. economy weighing on the Fed’s rate rise decision and a slowing in China. This downward movement in the markets is helping the Gold price though, it was trading nearly $2.50 higher yesterday, finishing the session at $1176.59 and the daily chart is showing signs that the $1170 support level is holding strong at the moment.
Trading Diary:
10:45am Got into a ‘long’ position on the S&P 500 a few minutes ago – it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 48 pip stop loss.
11:55am There’s a ‘long’ opportunity that’s just about to trigger on my WTI crude chart but there are the U.S. Crude Inventory numbers out soon so I’ll leave it alone.
13:30pm Off to The Swan for lunch now but I’ve left the S&P 500 trade’s stop loss where it is as the price is still around break even, it has not really taken off yet in the direction I thought it would.
14:45pm Back from lunch and my S&P position is currently at +36 pips so I’ll stay in the market for a while and see how much further the price rises.
16:20pm Going off for a late afternoon cycle ride with a few friends so I’ve closed off my S&P 500 position at +190 pips. I will send my chart screenshot to customers when I get back.
07:15am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and I am now going up the road for an early morning Clay Pigeon shoot – should be back here at home around 10am so I will do my Market Update then.
Market Update:
There was a general air of pessimism in the markets yesterday mainly due to the realisation that the Greek debt problem is coming to a disappointing head as it’s now clear that there probably is not enough funds for the rolled forward repayment due in 3 weeks time. Over the Atlantic there was good jobs news in the U.S. economy so this puts investors, traders and large companies on notice that the Fed may raise the minimum borrowing rate as soon as September. As well as this sentiment, there is also a fear that the Chinese economy is slowing down so we may not have any further rises in equity markets for the next few weeks but traders are now waiting for this week’s U.S. retails sales figures to see there really is growing strength in their economy.
The Crude Oil markets is still in the doldrums as worries about an Asian slowdown which is going to effect demand and also the fact that OPEC is not going to drop production to allow for this plus Iran is saying that a post-sanction period will see them increase exports. All this sentiment brought a fall in price for the benchmark U.S. Crude — WTI fell just over 70 cents yesterday to $58:25 per barrel and tomorrow’s weekly stock situation may well reinforce the downward pressure. The weekly WTI Crude chart does show some support around the $56 level although the candlestick patterns do hint at a good move either way in the next month or so.
Trading Diary:
11:25am There seems to be an UP trend developing on the 30 minute WTI Crude chart and if the price rises above $58:95 it will trigger a trendFX ‘long’ trade.
11:40am Just entered the ‘long’ WTI position, my stop loss is 30 pips.
14:20pm Now in a ‘short’ position on my Dax 30 chart using another of the trendFX set-ups, my stop loss this time is 47 pips. Off now for a late lunch.
16:10pm Just been stopped out of my Dax position at -47 pips but still in WTI trade.
17:15pm Off for a swift pint with a neighbour so I have closed off my WTI Crude position at +101 pips. It looks as though the price may hit $60:20 again but I’m happy with my profit, up 54 pips on the day.
07:30am Just emailed my ‘Daily-Guidance’ information sheet off to subscribers and for the rest of the morning I shall be here in the study replying to emails and also doing some chart watching but first a cycle ride as it looks so sunny out there this morning.
Market Update:
The main topic of conversation on trading floors across Europe and the U.S. is the ongoing Greek debt problem. There is a growing realisation that Greece is now really struggling to come up with the funds to repay its creditors and over the past week it has become clear that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is now acting with an air of bravado as his negotiating tactics are just not working against the IMF and ECB paymasters. It is now looking likely that the country does not have enough money to pay its next debt repayment at the end of June and an exit from the Euro is once again looking like a racing certainty. The G7 meeting of leading economic nations have the Greek problem high on their agenda and the does appear to be general consensus of opinion that everyone should hold tight and not back down in the face of Greek demands for leniency.
On Friday we saw that U.S. employment numbers came in better than most traders expected with a gain of 280,000 jobs added in May against an estimation of 226,000 and this advance will fuel expectations of a Fed rate rise before the end of 2015. This sentiment drove the main S&P 500 index down by the end of Friday’s session and weigh heavily on trader’s action this morning as the European markets get going for a new week.
In the oil markets there was a confirmation by OPEC members that they are holding steady with their production of 30 million barrels per day which should have put pressure of values but to counter that U.S. oil production companies posted a decline on output so WTI Crude ended Friday’s session slightly up at $58:98 rising by just over one Dollar.
Trading Diary:
07:45am It’s always risky getting into any trades first thing on a Monday morning as the markets get going after the weekend break so I am off for a cycle ride now – back in an hour or so.
11:10am Nothing much to report from the markets, a lot of traders are waiting to see if anything concrete comes out of the G7 meeting today and also watching the opening of the U.S. trading session in a few hours.
15:45pm Back from a late lunch at the Lorn Nelson and I can see a potential ‘short’ trade setting up on my Dax 30 chart.
16:20pm In the Dax position, it’s a trendFX strategy-1 set-up with a 34 pip stop loss.
18:35pm Off out soon and the price on my Dax chart is bouncing off the 11,000 ‘large-number’ level so I am now out of my trade with a +94 pip profit.
07:35am No trading for me today as it’s the first Friday of the month and we have the U.S. employment numbers released at lunchtime (UK time) – I have just completed and sent my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and I’m now going to get on with email replies for the next few hours as I watch the lightening outside.
Market Update:
As some expected, the new Greek government has delayed its latest debt repayment to the IMF until the end of this month – it’s in the rules so comes as no real surprise although it is the first time it has occurred since Zambia in the mid 1980′s. The move is seen by some a show of defiance by the the ruling anti-austerity Syriza party although the IMF and ECB do hold the upper hand as without a concrete agreement on a repayment schedule there is no further loans to keep Greece afloat. All this will no doubt conspire to help to subdue European markets this morning although the U.S. Non Farm Payroll announcement at lunchtime will see traders get their buying (or selling) boots on again.
The IMF were in the news yesterday as well as they asked the U.S. Fed to delay their rate rise decision until early 2016 on worries over global economic strength even though Unemployment Claims came in lower than expected so we may see the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices move up above the resistance level that’s been holding it back for the past few weeks. In the Crude Oil market, OPEC have come out gain to confirm they will not cut production but instead they want to maintain their current market position no matter how low the price is driven down because of their stance – they are fortunate that they can weather any price drop in contrast to the new shale producers in the U.S. who all based their economic predictions on $70-$80 per barrel. U.S. WTI Crude is currently sitting at $57:50 this morning with no real upside showing at the moment.
07:25am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and I’m off for a quick cycle ride in a minute in the glorious sunny weather that we have up here at the moment. I shall be watching some charts when I am back so will report any trades here as they occur.
Market Update:
The Greek situation is still rumbling on with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras announcing in the middle of the night that he was ‘very close’ to an agreement with the the IMF and ECB but we’ve only heard one side of the story so far today so traders have nothing to base any trading on yet for Thursday’s session. There is also employment numbers out in the U.S. today which will give the markets a guide to tomorrow’s important Non Farm Payroll announcement and there is a general air of optimism so we may see the S&P 500 head up towards its resistance level at 2138 again although as always, good news is also perceived as bad so there could also be a drop on the cards. Ahead of tomorrow’s jobs numbers, U.S. equities were generally bullish during yesterday’s session although the volume will disappear later today as traders sort out their positions for the big rush on Friday afternoon.
Crude oil markets were affected by comment’s from Iran’s Energy Minister that once sanctions are eventually lifted they will increase production within OPEC and this news caused a small amount of panic in the futures market and WTI Crude fell almost $1:50 by the end of yesterday’s session to end the day at $59:61 and looking at the daily chart shows the bullish trend is now struggling to keep up momentum. Gold also had a bearish day after good news in the U.S. pushes the Fed towards an early rate rise and the price is now heading towards the long term support level at $1170.
Trading Diary:
08:30am Just back from my cycle ride and there’s a few possible trades setting up on my favourite charts.
08:45am I am now in a ‘short’ position on my S&P 500 chart — it’s a trendFX strategy-3 pattern with a 44 pip stop loss.
09:20am Off shopping in Halesworth for an hour so I’ve set my stop loss at break even but left the target open.
10:45am Arrived back and glanced at my S&P chart a few moments ago and as the profit was sitting at +61 pips I’ve closed the position off.
16:10pm Been out in the garden all afternoon so no more trading to report.
07:25am Just emailed my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet to subscribers and I’m now off for a cycle ride with a neighbour – back in an hour or so.
Market Update:
All eyes are on Europe at the moment as traders expect some news on the Greek debt repayment negotiations at some time during today’s trading session. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been making confident announcements over the past few days but the same confidence has not been seen from the ECB or the country’s other lenders. There is an European Central bank meeting this morning so look out for some sort of announcement at their press conference at UK lunchtime. The U.S. markets were mainly influenced by European worries and failed to make any headway yesterday and the main Dow Jones 30 index is now sitting just above the significant 18,000 level after finishing the day down by 24 pips.
In the crude oil market there were rumours around some trading floors that U.S. inventories are slightly down this week and this helped WTI Crude surge forward by 85 cents to end the day at $61:04 and the daily charts looks like a move to $62 is on the cards in the short term.
Trading Diary:
08:55 Just back from cycle ride and I can see a possible UTB setting up on both the Brent Crude and WTI Crude charts.
09:15am I have gone with the Brent chart and I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 22 pip stop loss.
09:25am If the WTI Crude price drops below $60:55 in the next 15 minutes or so it will trigger a ‘short’ trendFX trade.
09:50am Just looked at my MT4 screen and noticed my Brent trade has just been stopped out at -22 pips but I am in the WTI position with a 30 pip stop loss.
12:10pm Out of my 2nd position with a +62 pip profit.
