Trading Diary:
11:25am Did not expect to be writing any posts here until next week but although I’m still on holiday I’ve got a quiet few days so I am in front of my laptop catching up on emails from customers. While answering a new traders’ question on trading GOLD on high timeframe charts earlier I suddenly noticed a trendFX trade setting up and a few minutes ago the price dropped sufficiently and triggered a ‘short’ position. I am in the market now with a 24 pip stop loss.
13:35pm The GOLD price is still coming down slowly as I had expected so I’m still in my position – current score is +31 pips.
15:15pm I am now out of my trade as the price has bottomed out and bounced off a minor support level at $1087:00 a few times. I’ve ended with a +55 pip profit.
07:20am Just sent off my Monday morning ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and for the rest of the day I shall be around the house getting ready for our usual 3-week July holiday in Cornwall and this means no more trading for me for the rest of the month.
The next Market Update and Trading Diary will be when I return from holiday on Tuesday 28th July although I shall still be sending out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ emails to subscribers during my break away.
Market Update:
The big news in the markets this morning is that the Greek population have voted a resounding ‘No’ to the bailout conditions/offer from the ECB and IMF creditors over the weekend. Further developments this morning include the partly surprising resignation of the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who I found out last night from a Greek trader friend studied at Essex University in Colchester in the 1980′s. He said he is leaving the anti-austerity Syriza government with immediate effect to help with the negotiations this week with his countries creditors and as a final parting shot at the EU he stated a few hours ago “..and I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride…”
At the moment, it’s anyone’s guess where the markets are going to end up tonight but the initial bullish move in safe haven Gold last night after the referendum result has more or less dissipated as I write this and the 4-hr chart is in a generally bearish mood with my MMOSc oscillator coming off an extreme overbought reading and now heading with great speed to it’s near term support level at $1163. Crude Oil markets are bracing themselves for an imminent deal on sanctions in Iran and if this does occur in the next few weeks there is an expectation increase in production from this OPEC member. This sentiment is driving prices down and the U.S. WTI Crude is now well into a change of direction as it heads towards a new support level at $54:00 (see my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ emails for further info)
07:15am Early start for me today as I am off to play golf later this morning for the first time in about 5 years – but first I am catching up on emails now that my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet has been sent off to subscribers. As usual, no trading planned for me due to the Non Farm Payrolls coming out today – a day early due to Independence Day holiday tomorrow.
No Market Update tomorrow (Friday) as we are off to watch the tennis at Wimbledon for the day. Back here Monday 6th July
Market Update:
The markets seem to growing tired of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras posturing after he showed evidence yesterday that he’s merely incompetent rather than an astute political negotiator – he started the day by saying that he would now agree to most of his creditors demands with small conditions but later in the evening during a speech on national TV told his people to vote No in Sunday’s referendum and also told his creditors to get stuffed and stop trying to ruin his country. Euro finance ministers seem to be finally understanding who they’re dealing with and have stated that no more negotiations will take place until next week, after the result of the referendum is known.
Of more interest today is the monthly U.S. employment figures, out a day early as it’s a bank holiday tomorrow due to Independence Day celebrations falling on a Saturday this year. The jobs numbers are expected to show an increase of around 270,000 jobs and this will add weight to the argument that a rate rise should occur well before the end of the year. In the Crude Oil market there was a weekly rise in U.S. supplies and together with an expected increase on production by OPEC members meant that WTI fell over $2 by the end of the session to finish at $56:88.
07:45am Another glorious summer’s day here so there probably will not be much chart watching indoors today for me.
Market Update:
Well, the inevitable has finally happened and Greece is now officially in arrears with one of their creditors, the International Monetary Fund – the first advanced economy to do this. Although the news is bad, equity markets look to be taking it positively this morning so far as there is now some certainty and traders are slowly coming to the conclusion that the Euro will not collapse any time soon because of a small southern European country leaving it. There are Eurogroup and IMF meetings later today so any news from them will be watched closely by market participants and there is also U.S. Non Farm Payroll numbers out a day early due to to Independence Day celebrations coming forward by one day so there will be plenty of reasons for markets to keep up their present volatility.
There was extension in the talks with Iran over a nuclear deal and this caused the U.S. WTI Crude price to rise by 80 cents by the end of yesterday’s session, it finished at a few cents over $59 a barrel with UK Brent Crude also having a bullish session (+$1:50) On the Gold market, fears of a U.S. rate rise sooner than 2016 caused the price to fall nearly $8 to $1172:50 by yesterday evening even though there was still some safe haven demand caused by the Greek fall-out.
Trading Diary:
09:50am Just sitting here in the kitchen answering emails and while looking at the S&P 500 chart for a customer I noticed a trendFX trade had just triggered, so I am now in a ‘long’ position with a 19 pip stop loss.
10:15am The S&P price has shot up as expected and as my position was sitting at over 100 pips profit and I am going off for a cycle ride as well I’ve closed the trade now. Final score +104 pips.
23:25pm Quick update – there was no more trades for me, I was outside for most of today.
07:25am Just sent off my daily ‘trading-guidance’ email to subscribers and after a walk along the beach in the early morning sun I shall be here in the study this morning catching up on emails. If I have any trades I will report details here.
Market Update:
Another day of unpredictable moves on equity and foreign exchange markets today as Greece moves towards default as it misses its loan payment of €1.5billion which is due in a few hours time although German and French indices look to be fairly stable at the start of today’s session. A war of words is now starting with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras blaming the EU for all his problems and saying that his country will not leave the Euro as the contagion will be too great. The Eurozone has got to hold strong though as if any quarter is given it would signal that Spain and Italy could also try their hand at some anti-austerity moves as well and traders I spoke to on London trading floors are generally of the belief that a Greek exit from the Euro is not such a bad thing as the currency would be a lot calmer without the Mediterranean countries dragging it down.
With all the turmoil in equity markets yesterday, crude oil suffered from this uncertainty and U.S. WTI Crude fell to just over $58 by the close and signs that an Iranian deal is getting close will only increase the current glut in the markets. UK Brent Crude followed suit and fell 98 cents by the close to finish the day at $61:91. Gold, as expected, rose sharply on the open yesterday on the Greek uncertainty but gradually gave back all those gains throughout the day and ended slightly over $5 up at $1179.90.
Trading Diary:
09:55am Just waiting to see if the prices rises slightly on my WTI crude chart, if it does it will trigger a trendFX ‘long’ trade.
10:15am I am now in the above mentioned position, it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 27 pip stop loss.
11:40am Off out for a cycle ride with a neighbour so I’ve closed off my WTI position at +30 pips.
14:10pm Back from lunch but too nice to spend time indoors watching charts, so that’s it for trading today.
07:10am Back from Barcelona very late last night so it’s back to normal this morning for a week before I am then off on my annual 3-week Cornwall holiday. Any trades I have today will be detailed in this diary.
Market Update:
As you will have seen if you have your charts open already, the fall-out from the ‘Greek’ situation started last night as the markets opened in Asian for the new week. The German DAX 30 and London FTSE 100 opened sharply down a few minutes ago and the U.S. futures show similiar declines for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones 30. The EU finance ministers meeting on Saturday failed to reach any concrete solution which was no big surprise as Greek Prime minister Alexis Tsipras had already announced he was going to hold a referendum on the situation almost a week after the deadline his lenders have given him to pay back a large tranche of the debt he owes. At least he is sticking to his election manifesto and bargaining hard for anti-austerity measures but the result seems to be taking Greece into a financial crisis to rival the global recession of 2008/09. We already know that Greek banks are now going to stay closed until 7th July, 2 days after the referendum and there is also a daily cash withdrawal limit of €60 from ATM’s countrywide and to add to the woe, the ECB had frozen their Emergency Liquidity Assistance to just over €88 billion which is going to put a strain on Greek banks. As a further development, I’ve just heard on Bloomberg radio that rumours have now been confirmed and the Greek Stock market will be closed today.
Crude Oil and Gold have also been affected, WTI Crude has dropped on fears of a slowing in demand triggered by the thought of another global slowdown and Gold has risen on safe-haven demand for the same reason, it would seem that Alexis Tsipras is controlling the markets at the moment…
Trading Diary:
08:15am The markets are still sorting themselves out after the large drops that occurred as the Asian markets opened late last night, so I am off out for a cycle ride now as there are no obvious trading opportunities at the moment.
16:05pm It’s been a volatile day on the markets, so not much to see on my charts on the few times I have glanced at them — but I have just got into a ‘long’ position on my Gold chart. It’s a UTB pattern and my stop loss is 25 pips.
17:20pm Still in the Gold trade but volume has dropped and the bullish sentiment has also dropped off quite a bit – still in profit though so I will move my stop loss upto break-even while I pop down to the beach for a short while and see where it is when I get back.
18:40pm Got back 5mins ago and my trade was at +34 pips so I’ve closed it off – happy with that. No more trading today, out in an hour for the evening.
08:15am CET (07:15 UK time) Arrived here in Barcelona yesterday evening for a 5-day break with some trader friends although the timetable does not include much trading – but I will still be sending out my daily trading guidance emails for the rest of the week. My next post here will be on Monday 29th.
Market Update:
All eyes will be on the Eurogroup meeting today to see if the new Greek proposals for debt repayment come up to the mark for Greece’s lenders. The German Dax 30 index has been fairly bullish over the last week or so on hopes of a lasting agreement and the daily chart does look as though it is lining itself up for further up moves. It would seem that the ECB and IMF have persuaded Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to change his stance on VAT, corporation tax and pensions and this may mean that talks can at last move forwards to a conclusion but there has now been large demonstrations back in Greece because it seems to the population that the anti-austerity Syriza party is now going back on the stance it was elected on. This may mean that a solution in Brussels to this problem is then scuppered in Athens so there’s still along way to go yet.
There was mixed news out of the U.S. yesterday – New Home Sales came in higher than expected but Durable Goods numbers disappointed so the main Dow Jones 30 index had a roller-coaster ride for most of the session but eventually ended 25 points up at 18,144 although the wider S&P 500 ended mainly flat at 2125, close to a local resistance area. In the crude oil market, the weekly stock situation in the U.S. is expecting to show a drop due to a continued easing in production and this helped push up the price during yesterday’s session to $61:15, a rise of 95 cents.
07:35am After a nice day off yesterday I am back here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching before I am off to visit some trader friends in Barcelona tomorrow for the rest of the week. Also a big big thank you for all those who donated money for my London-Brighton Bike Ride on Sunday.
Market Update:
Once again there has been optimism regarding the Greek debt situation as a new proposal by the Syriza party was delivered to EU leaders late yesterday and Jean-Claude Juncker said he was convinced that a last minute deal could be achieved and French President François Hollande commented that the EU was moving towards a deal with the Greeks. There is another meeting tomorrow and traders will want to see something more concrete if they’re still going to be in a buying mood that kicked off yesterday afternoon on the back of positive sentiment in Europe.
On the back of this news, the Dow Jones 30 index rallied just over 100 points to end the session at 18,120 with the S&P up by roughly the same percentage and here in Europe the German Dax 30 has had a mixed year so far, there was a note by investment giant JP Morgan yesterday which recommended buying now as they see a +10% rise coming for the rest of 2015, so they are quite optimistic about a solution to the problems that are concerning the EU at the moment.
With a generally bullish air to equity markets at the start of this week, there was little hope of Gold was going to carry on up as it has done for the past week – it ended the day down nearly $15 at $1186:00 and there now looks to be a new resistance forming on the chart around the $1205 level.
Trading Diary:
08:00am There may well be a UTB trade in a minute on my S&P 500 chart if the price goes below 2126.60 now that the 8am candle has just started.
08:10am The price dropped and a trade was triggered so I am in a ‘short’ position with a ‘whopping’ 10 pip stop loss.
11:35am All of a sudden the S&P price has become quite volatile and it also seems to have formed a minor support at 21228 so I am now out of my position with a +30 pip profit.
11:55am Cycle ride, video games like 케이카지노, lunch and then a game of tennis this afternoon so no more chart watching today
09:25am In and out the house today doing errands etc so probably no trading for me – I will back to the charts on Tuesday morning.
Market Update:
The U.S. markets had a storming session yesterday, shrugging off the week’s worries and posting some impressive gains – the Dow Jones 30 was up over 200 points by the close and the tech-heavy Nasdaq was up near yearly highs once more after having a generally depressed June. Traders and investors are now looking at a possible Fed rate rise towards the end of the year but whenever it does come it’ll be quite gradual according the Janet Yellen so this has brought buying confidence into the markets once again.
Here in Europe the Greek situation is trundling on without much hope of a satisfactory conclusion although many commentators have now given up worrying about the possible contagion that could be caused from an exit from the Euro and ultimately the EU. The northern countries of Europe are economically stable so the fall-out would be quite limited and it will be nice to look forward to some cheap Greek holidays as well. The ECB and IMF are digging their heels in over negotiations as there are also anti-austerity parties in Spain, Portugal and Italy waiting in the wings to see how they can play their hand in the coming years.
Gold had another good session as fears of a rate rise receded, it rose over $16 yesterday to finish just above the $1200 level although the weekly chart is still showing a bearish trend.
07:25am In the study this morning catching up on emails and outside all afternoon doing some garden restoration work so if I do have any trades I will report back here. There has been a possible ‘long’ trade setting up on my Gold chart since last night – if it goes above $1189.10 in the next few hours it will trigger the trade – it’s a trendFX set-up which I’ve had a lot of in the past few weeks (Strategy-3 this time)
Market Update:
After Janet Yellen’s comments last night the U.S. markets are taking a breather and relaxing as the general feeling is of a delayed rate rise. This is contrasted by occurrences here in Europe where it is becoming more obvious that Greece will not be paying it’s latest debt repayment instalment at the end of this month. There are currently three scenarios that seem possible with the Greek problem 1) Greece agrees a deal with the ECB and IMF to unlock funds in the next two weeks or 2) Greece exits the EU and Euro and goes its own way in the world or finally 3) a temporary fix whereby there are a few concessions but nothing is really sorted. If you were a betting person, it would be best to go for number 3 as there certainly no chance of any agreement in the near future.
On the Crude Oil market there was news out yesterday that U.S. stockpiles are nearly 90 million barrels above the 5-year average even though there has been a slowdown in production in the states and this caused WTI Crude to fall intraday and end Wednesday’s session 33 cents down at just over $60. Gold was in a bullish mood yesterday as it continues to take advantage of uncertainty here in Europe, it rose by $3.50 to end the day at $1185.
Trading Diary:
08:35am The Gold price has just risen above $1189.10 so I am now in a ‘long’ position. As the trade has been setting up for quite a while, the stop loss is higher than usual – it is 60 pips.
09:40am Now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart – it is also a trendFX strategy-3 set-up but this time the stop loss is just 31 pips.
10:55am The Gold price seems to have run out of steam temporarily so I am now out of my position at +84 pips. Still in WTI position currently sitting at +30 pips.
12:30pm Off out to the Lord Nelson for an early lunch so I’ve closed off my 2nd trade – it has come in at +33 pips.
