07:25am Early start for me today, I’ve just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and now I’m off for a cycle ride with neighbours along the beach path in half an hour.
Market Update:
China is dominating market news again, the People’s Bank Of China has devalued their currency for the second day in a row after disappointing Industrial Production and Retails sales numbers were announced earlier this morning (UK time). The market reaction hs been larger than expected today as the Chinese Government did say yesterday that Monday’s devaluation was an isolated move, but typically they were economical with the truth again. This latest move has been instigated to stem any panic in Asian markets and to stabilise the economy which should result in the Chinese Yuan more closely reflecting market forces rather than be controlled by the communist government.
These problems within China are also having ripple effects here in Europe as luxury goods manufacturers who have had enjoyed a bumper few years due to the expanding Chinese economy are now feeling the pinch as their products will now be more expensive – this explains some of the falls in European indices yesterday. U.S. markets also ended the day down slightly over worries about cheap Chinese imports affecting their own manufacturing base plus another fall in Crude Oil values – WTI Crude ended the day at $43:11 (down $1:60) and has fallen further during the overnight Asian session. Watch out for more sudden moves today after the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories stock situation is announced this afternoon, a fall of 1.6 million barrels is expected.
Trading Diary:
10:20am Back home now and the only possible opportunity I can see on my charts at the moment is a potential ‘long’ trade on WTI Crude/Brent Crude.
10:55am I am now in a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart with a 43 pip stop loss.
12:00 Midday I am now also in a ‘short’ trade on my Dax 30 chart using another trendFX set-up. The stop loss this time is 25 pips.
14:10pm Still in both positions, the Dax trade is doing much better than the WTI one.
15:05pm Understandably the WTI Crude chart is becoming quite volatile as well get close to the Crude Inventories numbers announcement, so with this in mind I have exited my position with a small +9 pip profit. Still in the Dax trade.
17:10pm My Dax trade has been going sideways now for the last couple of hours so I am now out with a profit of +109 pips. Going to pick up some trader friends up from the Airport now so no more trading today.
07:25am I shall be around the house for most of the day so will report back here if I have any trades.
Market Update:
Main news on the markets this morning is the announcement overnight from the People’s Bank Of China that they’ve devalued their currency (the Yuan) in a desperate move to prop up the countries exporters and is a thinly veiled admission that the economy is in a worse state than they are admitting. They have previously stated that they wish to move away from their reliance on manufacturing but this latest move contradicts this stance although the government is to be congratulated as they have moved fast after disappointing economic data released at the weekend.
In the U.S. yesterday there was a bullish reversal on the main indices on positive sentiment caused by rising oil prices together with a hope of Chinese government stimulus following the disappointing Producer Price Index figures. The rise in the oil price was on the back of news of an emergency OPEC meeting that’s been scheduled due to the low value at the moment, there are many OPEC member countries who’s economy rely on +$80 per barrel prices so the current level of around $50 is just unsustainable, even if Saudi Arabia still wants to sweat it out to teach the U.S. a lesson.
Trading Diary:
11:55pm Unexpectedly been out all morning helping a friend but back home now so I’m just going to scroll through some charts before lunch at the Lord Nelson.
12:25pm Possible ‘short’ in the Crude Oil market, both the U.S. WTI & UK Brent charts are (as usual) moving similarly.
12:40pm In a ‘short’ position on my WTI Crude chart with a 23 pip stop loss. It’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up.
14:30pm Back from lunch and my trade is sitting at +67 pips – I’ll stay in a while yet as there seems to be more downside.
16:15pm The price has bounced off the $43 level a few times now so I’ve just come out of the trade at $43:14 so my profit is +93 pips.
23:40pm Out all evening so no further trades to report.
07:10am Early start because we have weekend guests arriving soon but first I’m here in the study catching up on emails for a few hours. No trading today for me as it’s Non Farm Payrolls announcement day once again.
Friends are leaving on Monday evening so next Market Update on Tuesday 11th Aug.
Market Update:
Expectations for a steady employment number out of the U.S. today means traders are in a quandary regarding the timing for the Fed’s rate rise – is it going to be an early September hike or will Janet Yellen wait for the end of the year. Now that the employment rate is growing month on month, all eyes are on wage growth instead as there are still too many part time jobs skewing the figures. There was a general slump in equities in the U.S. during yesterday’s session with corporate results being the main culprit but also traders were adjusting their positions ahead of today’s NFP numbers.
U.S. WTI Crude had another bearish session yesterday and finished down 35 cents at $44:85 after a Goldman Sachs note to clients suggested that crude storage in the U.S. will be full within the next few months – the price is now heading quickly to the next support level at $44:00. Bargain hunters were out in force yesterday in the Gold market and overnight the bullish momentum carried on with Asian traders also believing that $1085 is just too cheap – the price is currently sitting at $1093.50
07:30am We’re off shopping at Bluewater after lunch but before then I shall be here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
Asian markets ended mixed earlier this morning after the Japanese Nikkei rose initially on a weaker Yen but then fell back after Chinese equities lost more ground and traders became cautious ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. job numbers. Here in Europe, the Greek situation seems to be a distant memory for traders and the German Dax 30 index has now had seven positive sessions in a row and is heading towards the 11,800 level in the near future although the FTSE 100 in London may have a volatile day as Bank Of England Governor Mark Carney will give us some forward guidance on the imminent interest rate rise.
In the U.S. most trader’s focus is on tomorrow’s Non Farm Payroll numbers so today’s markets will be quite subdued as they finely adjust their positions before the announcement at lunchtime Friday (UK time) Disappointing U.S. trade balance and ADP employment numbers yesterday did not weigh too heavily on the main Dow Jones 30 index but a cut in the profit forecast for Walt Disney caused the index to drop into negative territory at the end of Wednesday’s session, down 10 pips on the day even though the wider S&P 500 ended up 6 points.
U.S. WTI Crude Oil inventories dropped by over 4 million barrels according to the weekly numbers out yesterday but despite this, the price dropped 85 cents on worries that forthcoming maintenance for refineries will bring a large increase in stockpiles initially. it ended the day down at $45:13 with UK Brent Crude also in negative territory at $49:68.
Trading Diary:
08:20am Not much happening on my charts at the moment so I am off for cycle ride along the coastal path for a few hours.
10:40am Back from cycle ride and we’ve decided to go off shopping early so no more chart watching/trading today.
08:10am After a 60-mile cycle ride yesterday I am having a lazy day at home today, so no doubt I will be watching some charts at some stage – any trades will be reported here through the day.
Market Update:
The markets today are mainly about the U.S. ADP Employment numbers which give an indication about the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday and also the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the country’s trade balance.. All this data is particularly interesting at the moment as it gives a good barometer reading about the economy which in turn will give traders a clue as to when Janet Yellen is going increase the base rate. ADP is a U.S. Payroll Services company and they use data from their own customers to compile their monthly round-up and their ADP Non Farm Employment Change report has been modified over the past few years to give traders and investors an early idea of what to expect from the more important Non Farm Payrolls announcement that is released (usually) on the first Friday of the month. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data is compiled from data received from purchasing managers and buyers in industry and gives a good idea of the overall health of the economy.
Looking at my S&P daily chart of the top 500 companies in the United States this morning shows a marked reluctance to move much higher and is now heading towards the 200 period moving average – a level the price bounced off a month ago and the data released this week is going confirm whether the direction is going to turn bearish. Yesterday’s comments by Fed member Dennis Lockhart with regard to an early rate rise didn’t help the market either – he believes the economy is ready now and will withstand an increase in the minimum lending rate.
Trading Diary:
08:55am There may be a ‘short’ UTB trade coming up shortly on my Brent Crude chart – just watching to see if the price goes lower on the next candle.
09:10am The Brent Crude price has fallen sufficiently to trigger a ‘short’ position and I am now in a trade with a 19 pip stop loss.
10:30am Came out of my Brent position a few minutes ago – it has ended with a quick +35 pip profit.
13:55pm Unexpected invitation to Clay Pigeon shooting up the road so no more trading for me today.
07:25am Back from my long weekend away so I shall be around the house for most of the day catching up on emails and doing some chart watching apart from a long cycle ride with friends after lunch.
Market Update:
Although Asian markets were generally upbeat overnight, traders are ignoring this and putting it down to central government intervention attempting to prop up share prices in China. U.S. equities had a negative session on Monday with energy shares being the main reason for the drop, the Dow Jones 30 index was down over 0.5% at the close although it had been lower intraday and European shares will more than likely open down this morning on the back of this.
Crude oil values dropped again yesterday with U.S. WTI Crude touching the $45 level at one stage, a price we have not seen since March and these further falls are caused mainly by Iran’s government announcing that they are going to increase their oil production by half a million barrels a day as soon as official sanctions are lifted. This is countered by U.S. refineries going into their maintenance period until October so production will be affected and that should have a positive effect on the WTI Crude value. Goldman Sachs issued a note yesterday to warn that Gold prices would probably go below $1000 per oz. in the near future as U.S. interest rates falls later this year and this helped the value fall $8:00 during Monday’s session.
Trading Diary:
13:40pm I am off out shortly but I’ve seen a possible UTB trade on my S&P500 chart so I’ve set-up a buy order if the price rises to 2095.00.
13:55pm Leaving for a long cycle ride with some friends and I’ve just seen that my trade has been triggered. My target is set at 30 pips and my stop loss is 23 pips.
23:10pm Just got in and I’m happy to report my earlier UTB trade ended at +30 pips.
07:20am Early start for me today as we are away for a long weekend break in Norfolk but first some emails to catch up on. No trading for me now until next Tuesday when we’re back home.
Market Update:
Not much big news at the moment to move the markets significantly yesterday although the weekend will bring Chinese services and manufacturing PMI numbers so Sunday night’s market open should be quite volatile and this will slow trading volumes today as traders move to a fairly neutral stance. Here in Europe, the IMF has weighed into the Greek debate by stating that previously mentioned debt right off for Greece will now have to be written into the bail-out agreement otherwise they will walk away from negotiations. On the other side of the table, Germany has already confirmed they are not in favour of any such debt relief so although a deal was announced last week the markets could be spooked again before the next Greek debt repayment is due in August.
In the Crude Oil market, U.S. WTI Crude resumed its bearish journey yesterday, falling nearly 50 cents to $48:44 and overnight Asian moves have also been down. Amid cronic oversupply, the price does seem to be heading towards the support level at $47:00 and over on the Gold market the story is similiar – it fell over $8 during Thursday’s session to finish at $1088:40 and is now heading towards a long term support at $1045.
08:05am The weather is good outside this morning so not sure whether I’ll be chart watching or spending time in the garden today but if I do have any trades they will be reported here.
Market Update:
The main news on the markets yesterday was the FOMC meeting and Janet Yellen’s comments at the end of it. As usual there was no outright announcement regarding the hot topic of the moment – the U.S. bank rate rise – although she dropped big hints that a continued improvement in the jobs market needs to be sustained before she will consider moving the minimum lending rate from the record low. London traders I’ve spoken to this morning are unanimous in suggesting an odds on chance of an increase in the rate during September, which is only two more Non Farm Payroll announcements away and although an increase in the cost of borrowing is not generally a good situation for businesses, equity markets were generally upbeat after Yellen’s speech with the main U.S. index (S&P500) carrying on it’s march upwards from the reversal that occurred on Tuesday.
As it was Wednesday, the Crude Oil market in the U.S. had its weekly stock numbers released and as expected there was a drop but the figures surprised most traders as the fall was over 4 million barrels against an expectation of around 1 million. The WTI Crude price ended yesterday’s session up at $48:92 building on Tuesday’s bullish reversal after hitting a recent low of $46:60.
Trading Diary:
09:55am I did get into a ‘long’ position on my WTI Crude chart a short while ago – it is a UTB set-up again and my stop loss is 21 pips.
11:50am I have now closed off my WTI position as a neighbour has called round for a cycle ride. I have managed +40 pips.
06:55am Early start for me today as I’m off for a morning’s Clay Pigeon shooting at a friend’s farm so no trading for the time being.
Market Update:
Big news in the markets today is the FOMC statement this evening (19:00 UK time) with traders looking for subtle hints as to whether the imminent rate rise will be coming in September or December. Fed chief Janet Yellen has already stated that if the U.S. jobs market improves sufficiently it will trigger a base rate rise although many commentators feel the rise in employment this year is built on shaky foundations with most new jobs being minimum wage positions which are of no real good to the economy as those workers have no buying power in the market. She has also been on record as saying that the economy is ‘ready’ for a rate rise, so that move is starting to be priced into the market although there is little or no chance of a rise tonight during the Fed announcement.
The U.S. S&P 500 weekly chart is still showing a strong bullish trend and price action looks to heading towards the 2130 level once again in the next few weeks although we will probably know by the end of this week whether the concerns regarding the Chinese economy is going to effect this optimism. On the downside, this index has spent the last five months trying to advance above 2120 and has failed on a number of occasions and we may not see any notable bullish movement until the Chinese government sort their economy out and the U.S. gets used to a 1%-2% bank rate.
The Crude Oil market was hit by some bargain hunting yesterday as traders though the price was relatively cheap and this translated into a modest 65 cent rise during Wednesday’s session although today’s Inventories numbers from Cushing may well cancel that gain out as a rise of 1 million barrels is expected.
07:45am Back to ‘work’ today after returning from Cornwall yesterday and I may have a chance to look at my charts during the day inbetween other ‘jobs’ around the house. Any trades will be detailed here as they occur.
Market Update:
Big news in the markets today is the continuing fall in Chinese equities – yesterday’s drop was the biggest since before the global crisis in 2008 – and this is despite the Chinese government interfering in a big way to try to halt the panic. During the day we say drops of over 5% for the hang Seng but the market did close slightly better earlier this morning after the communist government forced companies to start buying their shares as well ordering market-makers and brokers to buy stocks – free market in China ? Doubtful.
Away from the Asian troubles, the Greek problem that I last talked about at the beginning of July is now gradually being sorted there are more meetings with its creditors today in Athens as they sort out the finer points of the deal that was reached to keep them in the EU fold. Crude oil is also in focus at the moment as post-sanction Iran is starting to sell its oil into the open market after many years in isolation, it is now said to be OPEC’s second largest exporter now from figures released for July and the price of U.S. WTI Crude now look as though it’s heading straight for the low of March this year at $42:00.
Trading Diary:
08:30am Just scrolling quickly through my favourite charts and I can see a possible UTB ‘short’ trade setting up on my Gold chart.
08:45am The Gold price has fallen sufficiently in the past few minutes to trigger the trade, I am now in a ‘short’ position with an 18 pip stop loss.
11:35am Off out for a cycle ride along the beach path so I’ve closed my Gold position – happy with the +35 pip score.
13:40pm Although it’s not a great time to enter a trade if you’re new to the markets due to the volatility when U.S. markets start their session, I did spot another UTB pattern on my S&P500 chart so I’m in the market with a ‘short’ position and a 23 pip stop loss.
14:35pm Due to the volatility in the market I’ve reset my stop loss at +23 pips and I shall watch the chart carefully to see how far down the price goes.
14:55pm Happy with my +111 pip profit so I’m out of the position. Been invited to play tennis up the road so no more trading for me today.
