07:25am Early start for me today, I am away now until after the weekend for my Mother’s funeral.
Market Update:
With the Chinese markets closed now until Monday, traders can concentrate on the raft of economic news and numbers out here in Europe and over in the U.S. to help them decide on market direction. Here in Europe there is August’s Services PMI numbers for Spain, Italy, France and Germany and all are expected to have readings of over 50 and improving. There is also the European Central Bank’s monthly interest rate announcement and although the record low 0.05% level is largely expected to stay, more interest will be focused on the press conference shortly afterwards as traders are keen to see if the ECB’s Quantative Easing (money-printing) Programme is to be enlarged.
In the U.S. yesterday both the Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 indices ended 1.8% up on the back of the FOMC’s Beige Book analysis which takes economic evidence from the twelve U.S. Federal reserve Banks regarding their thoughts on local economic activity and conditions in their local area and this data is then used by the Fed to set future interest rates. Last night’s announcement was mixed with some weakness in manufacturing and traders took this news as a suggestion that a September interest rate rise was off the table so a period of buying ensued late in yestrday’s session.
Wednesday sees the U.S. Crude Oil stock situation and yesterday there was a gain of 4.7 million barrels over the previous week and this news initially caused WTI Crude to fall over $2:30 before bargain hunters stepped in as the price hit the minor support at $43:50. Many market observers now see the price staying in a narrow channel between $40 and $50 for the rest of the year.
08:55am No trading for me today or tomorrow as I have some personal things to sort out. Back on Thursday morning.
Market Update:
After the UK Bank Holiday yesterday the big news on the markets today is the Chinese Manufacturing PMI for August which has come in at 49.7, slightly lower than the July figure of 49.8. Any number below 50 denotes industry contraction although it must be noted that the figure for August will be slightly distorted by the fact that many factories in China are actually closed for the majority of the month together with the effect of the Bejing Athletics and the major explosion at Tianjin (and another one yesterday) so the September numbers will be more keenly watched. This fall in output for Chinese manufacturers has transferred into sharp moves down this morning for European equity markets with the Dax trading just under the 10,000 level, down over 230 points with London’s FTSE 100 following this sentiment at 40 points down currently. This negative sentiment is following on from the the worst month on the markets for four years
I am a keen watcher (and trader) of the Crude Oil markets and this week has seen continued rises that started last Tuesday and is mainly caused by a drop in U.S. production and OPEC now tiring of the low value of a barrel of oil so in the coming months they will no doubt flex their considerable muscles and cut production slightly to boost prices. There has also been considerable short covering in the markets in the past couple of days due to OPEC’s new stance and this has had the effect of pushing values up as well.
06:45am Early start today as we’re off for a long weekend break tonight but no trading for me – back in front of the charts on Tuesday morning.
Market Update:
Big news in the markets last night was New York Fed Chairman William Dudley’s comments that conditions were not quite right for a rate rise in September – or as he put it “less compelling” and this gave the Dow Jones index its biggest single daily rise for 4 years although the next few day’s moves will confirm this new optimism. European markets are expected to open positively this morning as well, on the back of a broadly positive Asian session – the Chinese Shanghai Composite was up nearly 5% on government stimulus and also a bit of a push from the positive U.S. session.
On the oil market yesterday a decline in U.S. Crude Inventories failed to lift the price of WTI Crude much, it ended the session down although general optimism has lifted sentiment this morning and the price has risen above $40 in the last hour for the first time since Monday – maybe we have seen the bottom this week ? Gold is mirroring the equity markets as usual and has also had a fairly volatile week with this month’s general bullishness being halted on Monday morning and since then we’ve had three consecutive losing days although the daily chart is now looking fairly oversold so we may see some bargain hunting into the weekend.
07:25am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance‘ email to subscribers and I shall be off shortly on a bracing cycle ride before spending the morning here in my study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching.
Market Update:
All eyes are still on China and the wider Asian markets – there was another volatile session last night/early this morning although losses are not as sharp as they have been. The Chinese Central Bank cut their base rate yesterday for the fifth time in just under a year but the level is still nowhere near the U.S./European norm of close to zero – the People’s Bank Of China (PBOC) has set it at 4.6%, down 0.25% and it has also lowered the amount of money that Chinese Banks have to keep in reserve so this will have the effect of increasing money-flow and increase the amount they can lend to companies – this move should ultimately help investment and cashflow for private companies to earn passive income in the country. The Shanghai Composite index finsihed the session 1% down which is not as bad as previous sessions but over the last five days it’s fallen 23% and Government moves to prop the market up are still not having much effect.
Markets here in Europe recovered slightly yesterday after large moves down but sentiment this morning suggests more falls even though we had fairly healthy economic news out of the U.S. yesterday in the form of the monthly CB Consumer Confidence Survey – and there’s also Durable Goods Orders numbers out later today to watch out for if you’re in the market later today.
The Crude Oil market was slightly bullish yesterday with U.S. WTI Crude rising nearly $1:50 to finish the session at $39:65 on its way back to a previous support level at $40 although the daily chart is becoming overbought again, hinting at further falls. Today’s Crude Oil Inventories numbers will give further clues to near-term direction.
Trading Diary:
14:45pm I’ve been out for most of the morning due to unfortunate circumstances but I am now back home for a few hours so I’ll get on with emails and a bit of chart watching.
15:20pm Now in a ‘short’ position on my Dax 30 chart, it’s a UTB set-up and the stop loss is 69 pips. This is slightly higher than normal for the timeframe I’m using but is a reflection of the high volatility at the moment due to Chinese economic woes.
16:40pm Happy with my current profit so I’m out of my Dax position with +112 pips — no more trading today
08:40am Late start for me today although I have sent out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email over an hour ago. I may have some trades to report later but I am in and out of the house for most of the day as I’ve a lot to organise on a personal level.
Market Update:
The overnight Asian session saw another fall for Chinese equities although Japan has staged a small rebound although many traders I’ve spoken to in the past few days have pointed out that a ‘correction’ in world markets has been overdue for quite a while and worries over China’s economy has caused investors to closely examine other countries indices – so I am not sure if we’ve seen the bottom yet although bargain hunters are out this morning in Europe with the German DAX 30 rising slightly in early trading (currently up 40 points) with the London FTSE 100 showing a 60 point rise on overnight futures levels (and up 2.2% on yesterday’s close)
It could be argued that Central Banks have fuelled the rise in world equities over the past 5 years with almost zero interest rates and money-printing exercises and market dynamics dictate that buyers need a rest and book profits – interesting times ahead for the next few weeks……
On the Crude Oil market the U.S. WTI Crude had another bearish day with the price hitting the $37:80 level twice during Monday’s session and it would seem that it is now heading swiftly to the 2009 $35 level. Here in the UK, Brent Crude has followed suit and hit a low intra-day of $42:20 although it has risen slightly this morning and is at $43:55.
Trading Diary:
09:05am Off out now for a few hours, nothing to see on my charts trade-wise at the moment.
11:25am Back home fifteen minutes ago and I am now in a ‘long’ position on the FTSE 100 index – it’s one of the trendFX system set-ups and my stop loss is 29 pips. There was a similiar opportunity on the German DAX 30 chart but this one looked better.
12:45pm Going out for some lunch, so I’ve closed off my FTSE position at the ‘large’ number of 6100 as I am more than happy with my +40 pip profit.
08:05am Back trading today after a short break following last week’s sad news, I will be spending most of today replying to all the very kind emails that I have received over the past 5 days. Any trades I have will be reported here through the day.
Market Update:
While I’ve been away there’s been some pretty dramatic moves on the equity market which was kicked off by the Chinese Government Yuan devaluation last week that was supposed to help their economy but has instead started a worldwide market downturn. Many commentators thought the weekend break would halt the falls but overnight the Asian markets have finished down with Chinese equities falling over 8%. Futures in the U.S. are also well below last week’s levels and European shares are now around 2%-3% below Friday’s close.
The Crude Oil market is also suffering with U.S. WTI Crude price is now down below the crucial $40 level on the back of Iran’s statement on increased production following the lifting of sanctions, my chart is starting to signal further falls. With equity markets tumbling, it’s no real surprise that Gold is enjoying a surge as investors look for safety and is building on last week’s rise, it jumped overnight and is currently sitting at $1154.20.
Trading Diary:
08:55am Still watching my WTI Crude as there seems to be a possible ‘short’ trendFX pattern developing.
09:20am Now in a ‘short’ position on my WTI chart – the stop loss this time is 19 pips.
10:25am In today’s volatile market I am not too sure where the bottom is so I’m now out of my WTI Crude trade with a quick +52 pip profit.
11:05am Still seeing bearish trading possibilities and I am now in another trendFX ‘short’ position, this time on my S&P 500 chart. Stop loss is 89 pips and this reflects the fact that markets are quite volatile today and also I am on a higher timeframe chart than usual.
15:00pm Out of my S&P trade now — the U.S. trading session is well underway and the price has been as low as 1834.70 but I closed off just now at 1887.30 as the price reversed quickly, which means a profit of +501 pips.
15:35pm Off out for the rest of the day so no more trading.
09:30am Had an early morning cycle ride along the beach path so this Market Update is slightly later than usual today. Any trades I have will be reported here although I am in and out of the house most of the day.
Market Update:
European markets had a generally bearish day yesterday which was sparked mainly by a particularly underwhelming U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index report for August which was well below expectations and showed that manufacturing companies in the New York area had a generally pessimistic view of the economy at the moment. The report was out at lunchtime European time and affected the German Dax 30 index the greatest as their economy is fairly heavily weighted towards manufacturing. Although U.S. indices fell initially on the announcement as Monday’s session got underway, it quickly recovered and ended slightly up on the day after bargain-hunters stepped after a few hours. Today’s focus over there is the house market with Housing Starts and Building Permit numbers out as their session starts, the number of new houses being started in August is expected to show a slight rise but either way there will be a reaction in the markets.
The price of crude oil is still falling and U.S. WTI Crude has now fallen below the fairly solid $42:00 support level now with traders now looking towards $40 as the next stop-off point. In a typically selfish move by OPEC, Algeria has announced that it thinks that non-OPEC members should cut production to stem the crude glut on world markets – which would obviously suit them magnificently as they could then enjoy higher prices with no cut in production for them. As usual, there policy is completely see-through once again but these latest remarks are still having a negative effect on values.
08:10am A fairly lazy day at home doing some jobs and catching up on emails. If I do have a chance to watch any charts I will post trade details here as they occur.
Market Update:
The U.S. markets had a fairly positive week and ended the Friday session up on the day even though there was underwhelming economic news during the week and the Chinese currency devaluation hangover that was instigated by their Government from Monday onwards. Here in Europe there was subdued optimism as one of the final hurdles of the Greek situation was overcome as EU Governments agreed final bailout terms for Greece although the IMF is still whingeing about the level of unsustainable debt which they see is going to stop the country moving forward and out of this crisis.
In the Crude Oil market their are reports the OPEC producers are going to reach a record output soon of just over 33 million barrels per day and this is obviously putting pressure on the already low value – subscribers to my daily guidance emails will know that the price is now at a critical level, as it’s been sitting right on the important support line at $42:00 for a few days but this morning has dropped down below it, currently at $41:80. The Gold price had its first positive week since the middle of June although it does seem to have hit a slight hurdle at $1125 so the next few sessions will sort out the direction for traders.
Trading Diary:
09:25am There’s a possible bullish UTB pattern setting up on my U.S. WTI Crude and Brent Crude charts.
09:35am I am now in a ‘long’ position on WTI Crude chart with a 17 pip stop loss — not much else happening on my other favourite charts.
11:10am Off out for a cycle ride with a neighbour soon – so I’ve closed my trade off at +22 pips, happy with that for the morning session.
09:00am Slightly later update than usual today as I have had a number of early morning Skype calls with new traders in Asia, the first one was at 5am ! No trading for me today as I am back to the hospital again.
Market Update:
There will probably be no great advances in equity markets today as concerns of China and Greece dominate trader’s thoughts at the end of another trading week. The Chinese government have been keen in the past to announce market moving statements over the weekend so reducing positions at the moment is not a bad idea. Looking at the U.S. S&P 500 chart this morning shows me that it’s poised to make a sharp move either up or down quite soon – I’m just about to send customers a chart to illustrate my thoughts.
U.S. WTI Crude hit its support level during intra day trading yesterday on further worries of over supply and a weakening demand in China as their economy contracts, it touched the $42 level briefly before rising slightly but this morning it is back below that support. Brent Crude also has a bearish bias although it has not reached its support level at $48 yet, currently at $49:02 as I write this. Gold prices suffered from some profit taking yesterday as investors decided to bank some of their gains – the value has been climbing steadily for the past week or so from the $1080 support line and is now at $1116:80.
07:55am No Market Update or Trading today as I am off to the hospital soon to see my mother unexpectedly.
