07:30am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and for most of the day I am here at home catching up on emails and also doing some chart watching from time to time. Any trades I have will be posted here. First I am off for a cycle ride under very grey skies for a couple of hours.
Market Update:
With the Japanese markets closed today, European indices will take their lead from a lacklustre Chinese session where the Hang Seng index ended down just over 1% following on from a negative finish on Friday in the U.S. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices ended the week negatively after a fairly optimistic start but the Fed’s decision to keep their interest rate on hold gave a message of no-confidence in the world economy as a whole and we are now seeing a definite bias to the downside so this coming week will confirm a trend one way or the other. A bearish reversal candle on the weekly S&P 500 could give a hint as to the way the markets are heading for the next two or three weeks and European markets will also take their lead today on reaction to the Greek election result over the weekend where the ant-austerity Syriza was given a second mandate to govern after they negotiated a very unpopular economic rescue in the summer.
Crude Oil markets have been buoyed for the beginning of the new week on news that production in the U.S. has slowed after it was announced that $1.5 trillion worth of investment in new fracking sites are uneconomic at a price of under $50 a barrel. While American producers may hope that a price rise will now ensue so that production can eventually rise, OPEC countries and particularly Saudi Arabia will simply up their own production to ensure prices stay at a low enough level to keep the U.S. out of the global picture.
Trading Diary:
10:05am Just got back here after an extended ride out on the beach path — and nothing much on my favourite charts so far. I’ll have another look in an hour or so.
11:00am Possible ‘short’ trade on my S&P 500 chart – there’s a trendFX pattern setting up at the moment.
11:15am I am now in that ‘short’ position with a 35 pip stop loss.
12:10pm The price on my S&P 500 chart has risen past my stop level so I am now out of the trade with a 35 pip loss.
12:25pm Now in another ‘short’ trade, this time on my Gold chart using the same trendFX strategy as earlier. My stop loss is 16 pips.
12:45pm The Gold price is becoming slightly volatile and we are approaching the start of the U.S. trading session quite soon so I am now out of the trade with +55 pip profit.
13:10pm Markets will become unpredictable now for a while as a new week of trading starts in the U.S. so I am off for lunch at the Lord Nelson
14:15pm No more trading for me today, I am off for the rest of the afternoon to help a friend who is restoring an old Bentley.
07:20am No trading for me today as I’m helping a friend with his car restoration later this morning – but first a cycle ride for an hour.
Market Update:
Last night’s U.S. Federal reserve announcement on interest rates came out largely as expected – they kept them on hold at 0.25% again although equity markets did not take the news calmly with up and down movements of over 300 pips on the S&P 500 for a couple of hours after the announcement. The index eventually settled down and ended the day around 50 pips down on the day so the overall trend is still mainly bearish – and the smaller Dow Jones 30 index also ended down although slightly more (65 points) Markets should be able to forget about U.S. interest rates for a while now and get down to trading on other fundamentals as there is no Fed meeting in October so many traders are now looking at the end of the year possibly although any increase will depend largely on how China weathers it’s economic problems over the next 3 months.
Crude oil markets had a largely down day yesterday after large rises on Wednesday, profit takers kept prices below the 50 moving average on the daily chart as U.S. WTI Crude ended the day 40 cents down at $46:85 and UK Brent Crude fell a similiar amount with both charts down further after the overnight Asian session.
07:40am Spending most of the day here at home so I’ll report any trades here as they occur.
Market Update:
Overnight the Japanese market was fairly positive on the back of a good finish in the U.S. last night and a calm Chinese session as well. I would anticipate today’s indices will be quite subdued ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision tonight at 19:00hrs UK time. There was a firm rally in America early on Wednesday’s trading session as the expectation of a rate rise is not really on the cards for many traders although the S&P 500 futures market has been quite subdued for the last 8 hours in readiness for a reaction one way or the other tonight.
Wednesday is U.S. Crude Oil stock numbers and yesterday’s numbers surprised many traders as it fell by over 2 million barrels against an expectation of a small rise which is often the case as autumn arrives – this announcement caused WTI Crude to rise over $2 to end the day at $47:15 although it has fallen back slightly during the overnight Asian session and is hovering around the 50 moving average on the daily chart.
Trading Diary:
08:50am Just had a quick scan of my charts and there’s not much happening so I am off for a cycle ride for a couple of hours.
13:05pm Got back here at 11am and I’ve had friends around since then so no chart watching or trades to report ! Off to the Lord Nelson for lunch now.
15:00pm Been back here in the study for 10 minutes and the only thing I can see on my group of favourite charts is a possible UTB ‘short’ on Brent Crude.
15:15pm The Brent price has dropped sufficiently to trigger the UTB position – my stop loss is 36 pips.
16:05pm The price has come down quite nicely and I’m happy with the +45 pip profit so I am now out of my only position of the day so far.
07:35am Just emailed my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet to subscribers and today it’s back to normal with some chart watching after another funeral yesterday. If I have any trades through the day I will report details here – although off for a cycle ride with a neighbour first for a few hours.
Market Update:
Markets in Asia were bullish overnight with the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index rising 5% during Wednesday’s session and Hong Hong and Japanese indices ending up by similiar amounts with rumours on a few trading floors that the Chinese Government are intervening in the market to buoy confidence. This optimism will more likely help European markets for the first few hours this morning and U.S. equity futures are moving positively early this morning. Disappointing economic numbers out of the U.S. yesterday in the form of Empire State Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales gave traders a reason to think that the Fed will not raise interest rates tomorrow and this sentiment boosted equities with the leading Dow Jones 30 index finishing on Tuesday evening 225 points up (+1.40%)
Wednesday’s session is important for oil traders as we have the U.S. Crude Oil Inventory numbers released this afternoon (UK time) which shows the change in the stock situation over the past week at the oil storage facility at Cushing, Wyoming. There is expected to be a small rise over the past 7 days of under a million barrels today and the actual difference to this estimate will give commodity traders a clue to which way they should be trading for the rest of the week. Yesterday’s trading session was fairly positive with the U.S. WTI Crude ending the day up 80 cents at $45:14 and this morning there is a slight rise on the level. Gold is continuing its bearish trend and lost nearly $4 on the day to finish last night at $1104:70 although some bargain hunters have emerged during the overnight Asian session and the price is currently sitting at $1107:60.
Trading Diary:
10:05am Just got back and I can straight away see a possible UTB trade pattern setting up on the Gold chart and also a trendFX trade on my FTSE 100 chart.
10:10am I am in a ‘long’ position on my FTSE 100 chart (15 pip stop loss) but nothing has happened yet with the potential Gold trade.
10:30am Out of my position at the large number of 6200 now – small profit of 20 pips. The earlier UTB possibility did not develop.
10:40am Break from chart watching and emails/Skype calls for a few hours while I help a friend who’s fixing up an old Bentley.
23:45pm Have been out for most of the day doing car restorations so no more trades to report
06:55am Early start for me today as I’ve much to do – but no time for trading unfortunately for the next two days, I shall be back here on Wednesday morning.
Market Update:
The markets this week are going to be all about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate meeting on Thursday and opinion is gradually moving towards a 50/50 after main consensus during the last month has been for no move from the current 0.5%. The start of the week in Asia has seen equities fall even though the U.S. ended last week optimistically after consumer sentiment dropped giving traders added reasons for an interest rate hold, the leading Dow Jones 30 index ended Friday 103 points ahead at 16,433 and the wider S&P index of the leading 500 companies ended 0.45% up at 1,961 although futures trading overnight has seen a drop to the current 1,958 level. Here in Europe, equities are expected to start broadly the same as last week’s close and with no big economic news out today there will be little to move them in one direction or the other.
A continuing high level of crude oil supplies in the U.S. caused further falls on Friday, WTI Crude ended almost a Dollar down by the end of the session at $44.75 with UK Brent Crude down a similiar amount at the end of the week and it’s still experiencing a bearish sentiment after the overnight Asian session and is heading towards the near-term support at $46:75.
07:15am Just finished my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet and I am off for a quick cycle ride before settling back in the study for the morning catching up on emails.
Market Update:
Markets yesterday were marginally optimistic and U.S. equities ended slightly up after Apple and the health sector gained momentum although the S&P 500 is losing it’s direction slightly and needs some definite news to re-establish some sort of direction. The upcoming Fed meeting next week will confirm interest rates and no doubt there will also be announcement by the People’s Bank Of China regarding government meddling in their economy so although today will be relatively quiet, expect some decent moves by next Friday.
Crude Oil Inventories in the U.S. rose more than expected the price still rose as there is increased demand for petrol at the moment so stocks should not stay at current levels for long – WTI Crude rose $1:50 to end the session at $45:70 with UK Brent Crude also up slightly by $1:27 yesterday but has fallen back slightly this morning and is currently sitting down 35 cents at $48:35. After falls on Wednesday, there were plenty of bargain hunters out yesterday buying Gold and these investors/traders pushed the price up by just over $4 to end the session at $1110.75 but during the overnight Asian session it has resumed it’s bearish trend on the daily chart and fallen slightly to $1109:90.
Trading Diary:
08:30am Just back from cycle ride which was cut short by a rare puncture (even though I have anti-puncture tyres) and I can see a possible ‘short’ trade setting up on my Gold chart – IF the price goes below $1109.50
08:40am The price has dropped so I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart with a 22 pip stop loss. It’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up.
13:30pm The U.S. trading session is just starting to get going so the markets are getting slightly more volatile than they have been this morning so I have just come out of my Gold position at +32 pips. Happy with that for my day’s trading profit.
07:30am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email and I’ll be around the house for most of the day due to various meetings so I will report back here with any trade I get into.
Market Update:
Markets have turned bearish with the overnight Asian indices all ending in the red following falls yesterday in Europe first and then the U.S. Wednesday’s initial optimism for equities quickly fizzled out after encouraging jobs numbers data was released by the Bureau Of Labor Statistics early afternoon and we’re in the usual situation where good news is bad for the markets. Next week’s Fed meeting is widely thought to agree to hold interest rates on hold but the recent encouraging economic news is making traders and investors jittery hence the extreme up and down moves in the market at the moment although looking at the S&P 500 index earlier shows an overall bearish outlook the moment.
Crude oil values continued it’s fall yesterday on rumours that U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are going to show a decline later today and it ended Wednesday’s session down $1.65 at $45.00 with UK Brent Crude following suit as usual and there’s still no real sign of OPEC members cutting production even though they keep talking about it. Gold also continued it’s bearish trend yesterday and was down nearly $15 at $1107 on India’s statement that it was going to cut imports in the next few months although with equity markets falling we may see a support level forming soon as bargain hunters come in.
Trading Diary:
08:05am Nothing to report with regard to trading opportunities yet as the European markets get going, I have two meetings now so I’ll take another look in a couple of hours.
11:30am Just checked and there are no trade opportunities so far on my favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride for a couple of hours.
15:05pm Back from lunch but not much time to watch any charts now as I have a couple of meetings on Skype running up until tea-time.
07:45am Another day around the house so I will report back here if I have any trades.
Market Update:
European markets have just opened significantly up after a bullish U.S. session yesterday and also a very optimistic overnight Asian trading session. The Japanese Nikkei 225 ended up over 6% after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced support for the economy and the People’s Bank Of China are also offering monetary stimulus to alay investor’s fears over China’s slowing growth. This action by the PBoC was the main reason that U.S. equities surged higher yesterday ahead of next week’s Fed interest rate decision – which is widely accepted now to be a bit of a non-event as the rate should stay the same after recent global market turmiol.
Here in the UK, there’s manufacturing numbers and the trade balance announcement out later this morning but Asian news is moving the FTSE 100 index more today. Crude Oil prices are still rising with expectations that the stock situation is going to substantially lower this week. The price now seems to be settling into a trading range between $48:50 and $44:00 and is now going up towards the higher level for a while.
Trading Diary:
08:05am The markets are still settling down as the European markets open for the day so I am off with a neighbour for a cycle ride.
10:35am Back now but not much on my charts, I’ll check again in 30 minutes or so.
11:10am I am now in a ‘short’ position on my Gold chart – it’s a trendFX set-up with a 14 pip stop loss.
12:25pm Now in a ‘long’ position as well, this time it’s the S&P 500 index. Another trendFX set-up and a slightly higher 35 pip stop loss.
14:55pm Just got back from a quick lunch and seen that my S&P 500 trade has been stopped out at -35 pips although the Gold trade is doing ok.
15:10pm The Gold price has just hit the $1,110 level which maybe a small support so I am now out of that position as well – score was +109 pips. Back out into the garden to carry on yesterday’s project so no more trading for me today.
07:20am I’ve just emailed out my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ sheet to subscribers and before I get going with some ‘work’ this morning, I am off for a cycle ride along the beach path down past Dunwich. If I have any trades today I will report the details here.
Market Update:
With U.S. markets closed for Labor Day yesterday the markets here in Europe were reasonably subdued but with disappointing Chinese trade data out earlier this morning traders will be in a bearish mood, especially after lower than expected U.S. jobs numbers last Friday. The only light at the end of the tunnel was the latest German trade balance announcement released a few minutes ago so European indices are starting positively so far with the Dax 30 index looking at rising towards the 10,300 level as the next target.
On the Crude Oil markets, U.S. WTI fell slightly yesterday to end the day at $44.26 per barrel as talks between Russia and Organisation Of Petrol Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to reach a supply agreement and Gold is still heading towards a near-term support at $1,115 as investors remain unclear as to the timing of a U.S. interest rate rise.
Trading Diary:
09:25am Not much happening on my charts so I’m off out into the garden for a few hours to do some jobs.
12:30pm Been back indoors for a half an hour and all I can see on my charts is a possible ‘long’ trade on my U.S. WTI Crude chart that may trigger if the price rises soon.
12:45pm Now in the ‘long’ WTI position. it’s a trendFX strategy-3 set-up with a 27 pip stop loss.
14:10pm Markets are getting quite volatile as the U.S. trading session gets underway after yesterday’s holiday and I am now out of my WTI position prematurely as I’ve been watching it for the last 10 minutes and I cannot see much upside. I have come away with a slim 15 pip profit.
15:30pm Nothing much on my charts now so back to gardening for the rest of the day
07:40am No trading for me today but back to normal tomorrow.
Market Update:
Friday’s U.S. job’s data was significant as it was the last before the Federal Reserve makes it’s mind up on interest rates on September 17th and the numbers where not that great meaning that most traders now believe the first rate hike since the global financial crisis in 2008 will now happen in December although many believe it’s going to be 2016 now. There was an expectation of 215,000 jobs created in August but that number was missed by a considerable amount with the final number just over 173,000 and with the global slowdown well under way now due to Chinese economy concerns there is virtually no worries that a U.S. interest rate rise will happen soon, Today’s markets will be quieter than normal as there;s no significant economic news releases and the U.S. and Canada have a Bank Holiday because of Labor Day celebrations – day that celebrates all that workers do for the economy and started in the late 19th Century.
Crude oil is on the slide once again after last week’s U.S. stock report showed a slight gain together with a lacklustre jobs report on Friday put traders in a pessimistic mood which has meant that the U.S. WTI Crude daily chart looks as though it’s now heading back to last week’s $43 level (currently $45:69 this morning) The weekly Gold chart also looks bearish although there’s no real firm direction at the moment, $1070 is a medium term target on the downside but there’s going to be quite a lot of volatile moves before it gets down to that support level.
