07:15am Early start for me as I have some emailing to do before friends arrive for the weekend – so no trading for me today.
Market Update:
The markets are expected to kick off today’s session in an optimistic mood after Central Bank comments yesterday – the Bank Of England held their rate unsurprisingly for another month and the ECB is also on the starting blocks with some monetary stimulus. Fed minutes released last night also show that the weakening global outlook is hampering their ambitions to raise U.S. interest rates this year and it is certainly off the table for October (and probably November as well)
Overnight the Asian session was quite buoyant after the strong U.S. session finish with the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite and Nikkei 225 all ending positively – as the Fed is keeping interest rates on hold for the next few months the Dollar will be weaker which is perceived by traders to help emerging markets such as China and India hence the bullish sentiment at the moment.
The Crude Oil market is at a crossroads currently with comments on the upside from industry-watcher PIRA Energy that prices are set for a rise upto $70 next year and that is tempered on the downside by increased production from Iran and also OPEC refusing to cut production. U.S. WTI Crude ended up by $1.40 at $49.66 and early morning trading has now pushed the price over the important $50 level.
08:25am Going to be at home today catching up on emails after I had some issues with the software yesterday. Any trades I have will be reported here.
Market Update:
Chinese markets were back trading last night after a 3-day break and they ended largely up with the Shanghai Composite finishing ahead by +3.80% but the Hang Seng and Japanese Nikkei were down on the day. This followed on from a mixed U.S. session yesterday as the main S&P 500 suffered from selling pressure on the open but recovered slowly during the day to end ahead by +0.80% although S&P 500 and Dow futures are giving back those gains over the last few hours as traders adjust their positions ahead of the Fed minutes later this evening. Before then there is also the Bank Of England Monetary Policy Commitee’s rate decision which is widely believed to keep rates on hold at 0.50%.
The Crude Oil market suffered some falls yesterday after it was revealed that U.S. Crude Stockholdings had grown more than expected – traders were mainly agreed that stock at Cushing would have grown by just over 2 million barrels but the final count came in at +3.1 million. After a good bullish run over the last three days, profit taking is now putting pressure on values.
Trading Diary:
08:35am Nothing much happening on my group of favourite charts so I am off for a quick cycle ride to clear the cobwebs…
09:35am Got back 5 minutes ago and have just entered late into a ‘short’ position on my Brent Crude chart using one of my Any-Time set-ups. My stop loss is 18 pips on this occasion.
11:10am Happy with my profit so I am now out of the above trade, it managed +53 pips.
12:10pm I was not really looking for another trade but while answering a student’s question I just noticed another Any-Time trade setting up on the U.S. WTI Crude 30 minute chart, so I am now in that position with a 24 pip stop loss. It is also a Magic-Line trading system set-up
12:45pm I am due out for lunch with a friend soon so I’ve just closed off this latest trade as it hit a 1:1 profit/loss ratio at 24 pips but I must say it did suffer a slight bit of slippage which is quite unusual with this platform, so my actual profit has come out at +23 pips.
08:50am Nice lazy day at home today so if I have any trades I will report them here.
Market Update:
I am starting my analysis today with the Crude Oil market as the U.S. WTI Crude rice broke out of a narrow trading range yesterday and UK Brent Crude rose above the $50 per barrel for the first time in two weeks. Rumours of talks between Russia and OPEC regarding production and continuing lower production in the U.S. are the main drivers for this bullish move and this morning’s price action hints towards more price rises as I can see a possible ‘long’ trade setting up as I write this.
In the equity markets there’s not much to keep traders in a bullish mood with no real signs of Central Bank stimulus beginning as we experience a slowing EU and Chinese economy. The Bank Of Japan released their monetary policy statement yesterday and there was no mention of any economic assistance although Governor Kuroda’s speech today may surprise Asian traders with some positive rhetoric.
Trading Diary:
09:00am As mentioned above, there looks to be a ‘long’ trendFX pattern setting up on my WTI Crude chart.
09:10am I am now in the ‘long’ WTI position with a 30 pip stop loss.
10:30am Possible UTB pattern on my Dax 30 chart – markets nice and busy compared with yesterday.
10:55am Now also in the ‘short’ UTB trade – stop loss is 35 pips.
12:15pm I have just entered another UTB trade – this time it’s a ‘long’ position on my Gold chart with a 12 pip stop loss.
12:50pm Off out to lunch now so set up a target for the Gold trade at $1153.00 as that’s the last high it reached early this morning and the other two trades are set at 1:1 profit/loss as they have not made much headway yet.
14:25pm Just got back home to see that both my Dax and WTI Crude trades have been stopped out so that gives me -65 pips but the Gold position ended up ok so I have a profit of +38 pips there. The markets are still sorting themselves out as the U.S. session gets underway so nothing to see on my charts at the moment.
15:20pm Just been invited to Clay Pigeon practice up the road so trading is finished for me today.
07:20am Just sent off my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email to subscribers and now for the rest of the morning I shall be here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching – then out to London for meetings later this afternoon.
Market Update:
Overnight the Asian markets enjoyed more optimism following overall sentiment that the Fed is going to hold their borrowing rate at its record low for a bit longer. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index rallied around 1% during the Asian session following on from the Dow Jones 30 rise on Monday of around 300 points. There is a general feeling that governments are going to do whatever is needed to prop up their respective economies and this sentiment is keeping markets on a more optimistic footing rather than relying on the traditional ways of simply being a profitable enterprise – interesting times nonetheless.
Over on the Oil market there was a shift by traders out of their Long positions as news filtered through of an increase in Russian output – although U.S. WTI Crude price ended slightly up on the day, there were sharp losses from mid-afternoon and this morning the sentiment is still very bearish.
Trading Diary:
08:45am Nothing much to see on my collection of favourite charts so I am off for a cycle ride along the beach path.
11:55am Been back a few hours and there’s been nothing of note on my charts so far this morning so it’s some shopping in town and then lunch.
08:15am Back from short holiday now and I shall be spending most of the day here in the study catching up on emails and doing some chart watching now and then. Any trades I have will be reported here.
Market Update:
After Friday’s Non Farm Payrolls announcement came in slightly more downbeat than expected, shares in Japan ended Sunday night’s session up and European equities are probably going to follow suit as Monday’s trading gets underway. The Chinese markets are closed now until Thursday so Asian sessions could be subdued for the next few days but in the U.S. the old adage of ‘Bad News Is Good News’ is once again rearing it’s head and the disappointing jobs increase in the U.S. means that the Federal Reserve will now put back their Interest Rate rise until 2016 unless there is a surprising rise in economic activity. Traders in London that I’ve spoken to in the past fortnight were betting on a December rise but that now seems to be out of the window as the Chinese slowdown seems to be in full swing as well. The only light at the end of the tunnel is that more monetary stimulus by major governments is now firmly on the table and investors are now waiting to see how much and how soon – an interesting month’s trading ahead I believe.
Trading Diary:
08:30am There will probably be a long trade kicking off in a minute — the price on my Dax 30 chart is looking very bullish.
08:40am I am now in a ‘long’ position on the Dax chart — I am using a trendFX set-up and my stop loss is 38 pips.
09:15am Off out for a cycle ride now with a neighbour, my Dax position is doing ok (+52 pips) so I have brought my stop loss up to +38 and left the target open at the moment and review the trade when I am back in a couple of hours.
13:05pm Trade still doing ok so leaving it going and off to lunch.
15:45pm Just come out of my Dax position as a bearish UTB reversal pattern appeared on my chart – so I am now ‘short’. My new trade has a 27 pip stop loss and the first one managed +135 pips.
17:40pm Off out for a few hours to meet some other traders in the Lord Nelson so I’m leaving the UTB trade to run — not doing terrifically at the moment !
23:45pm While I was out earlier my UTB trade was stopped out at -27 pips.
07:05am Although I am back home now there’s no trading for me today as 1) it is Non Farm Payrolls announcement day and 2) I am off to Norfolk for a quick 2-day visit.
Market Update:
As mentioned above, the main market news today is the U.S. monthly jobs report so markets will be fairly quiet this morning in readiness for the announcement at 13:30pm UK time. There is an expected rise of 201,000 jobs which is higher than August’s figure of 173,000 so an actual number below this may cause equities to fall on the open of the U.S. session although bad news may mean that the Fed delay their expected rate rise in which case there will be a positive reaction in the markets – you can see why I do not worry about trading today !
Overnight the Asian session was mixed with Chinese stocks coming in ahead – both the Shanghai Composite and HangSeng index were up but the Japanese Nikkei 225 ended down on profit taking ahead of the U.S. jobs announcement. Crude oil had a fairly volatile session yesterday mainly due to increased military activity in Syria which will ultimately affect a lot of the oil-producing Middle Eastern region although U.S. WTI Crude is still trading in a fairly narrow range between $43.25 and $47.75.
07:35am This is the last Market Update/Trading Diary until the end of the week as I am away this afternoon for a quick holiday.
Market Update:
The overnight session was mixed with the Chinese Shanghai Composite and the Japanese Nikkei 225 ending marginally down but the HangSeng and Australian ASX finishing positively – Friday’s U.S. session did not give the markets much cause for optimism as it sold off for most of time as Janet Yellen’s remarks earlier in the week about the imminent rate rise from the Federal reserve. European markets this morning are expected to be broadly bearish although the first hour is mixed but will settle down once all the overnight orders are filled. Also on traders minds is the U.S. Non Farm Payroll numbers on Friday – if the jobs growth continues to be positive then the market will expect an earlier rate rise from the Fed so good news will be bad once again.
Oil values are under pressure once again even though there has been a significant drop in U.S. drilling activities, traders are still worried about the global economy as a whole which will affect demand. U.S. WTI Crude is currently sitting at $45.25 with a strong support level at $37.75.
07:25am Fairly early start for me today, I am back in Suffolk and off for a cycle ride in a minute along the beach path and then I’ll be here in the study this morning doing some chart watching and catching up on emails then this afternoon I am playing my first game of golf for 15 years….
Market Update:
Overnight the Japanese Nikkei was the only main Asian index that ended up after a volatile session. Both Chinese indices finished down with the main Shanghai Composite losing nearly 1.8% and last night’s volatility was mainly blamed on Janet Yellen’s comments after the U.S. markets closed yesterday. She hinted that the Federal reserve will probably raise rates before the end of 2015 by saying that as long as inflation stays stable and the economy continues to be strong enough to support an increase in employment then all the conditions were right for a rise in the base rate before the end of the year. She also said that herself and other Fed policymakers thought that the U.S. economic prospects over the next year “appeared solid” so markets today should be generally bearish as companies look to endure higher borrowing costs in the run-up to Xmas. With a rate rise in the U.S. now definitely on the cards, it’s only a matter of time before Mark Carney and the Bank Of England move their own base rate off the historic low.
The Gold market was in a bullish mood yesterday as it staged its biggest one day move in 8 months, rallying 230 pips as the U.S. market opened and ended the day at $1153.20 although with the prospect of higher interest rates there may well be a return the bearish trend that is evident on the weekly chart.
Trading Diary:
10:55pm Not much happening on my charts this morning so far so going into town for an hour to do some shopping.
12:20pm There maybe a bullish trendFX set-up on my German Dax 30 chart.
12:35pm The Dax price has moved up sufficiently to trigger a ‘long’ trade — my stop loss is 33 pips.
13:15pm Before I go to lunch I’ll watch my position carefully as the U.S. trading session is about to start and European markets have the potential to become volatile for a short while.
13:45pm Price has become quite volatile so I am out of my trade with a +43 pip profit. Lunch and golf now.
07:30am No trading for me today, I have a long meeting here this morning with the builders and then clay pigeon shooting this afternoon.
I am away from my screens tomorrow as well but back trading on Friday.
Market Update:
Main news in the market so far today is the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which came in earlier at 47 eaxactly against a level of 47.3 in August and an estimation of 47.6. A number of over 50 gives an indication of expansion in the manufacturing sector and under 50 is contraction and looking at the figures since November last year, there has only been one month above 50 (February) so really this has been a slow decline in purchasing manager’s outlook on the general economy and it really goes to show that the stimulus that the Chinese Central bank has been implementing has had little or no effect so far this year.
The announcement sent equity markets down in overnight trading and Europe is expected to open lower with the Volkswagen story also weighing heavily on share indices again today. The Chinese Shanghai Composite was 1.4% lighter earlier this morning and the Hang Seng even further down at -2.3% but no figure for the Japanese market as they are on a 3-day holiday at the moment.
Crude oil markets fell again yesterday on expectations of falling demand due to weak manufacturing figures, WTI Crude falling nearly 1.9% by the end of Tuesday’s U.S. trading session and the daily chart is gearing up for a sudden move soon either up or down. Gold suffered its second day of losses yesterday although weakness in equity markets should give a boost to its value as we go towards the end of the week.
07:10am Up early for some reason and I’ve sent off my my daily ‘Trading-Guidance’ email already – down in Essex for a few days and with the weather a bit gloomy and wet outside I shall probably spend most of the day here at home watching charts and catching up on emails.
Market Update:
Although European and U.S. markets had a largely bullish day yesterday there was no real strength to the moves and overnight the Asian session was mixed with the Hang Seng approaching their close around now with a 205 pip rise so far but the Japanese Nikkei 225 is 362 points down. No significant economic news is being released today so direction will be entirely dependent on traders sentiment – which according to a couple of London traders I spoke to last night means a generally bearish session. The bullish U.S. session yesterday was mainly down to fairly good existing homes sales although the number did come out slightly shy of the expected 5.5 million but China is still weighing heavily on investor sentiment.
Crude oil prices have taken a fall overnight after a resilient session on Monday where there was a 3% rise but profit takers have moved this morning in as traders cannot see much upside as demand is weakening and supplies are still plentiful. I can also see a possible down move on my U.S. WTI Crude chart at the moment so bullish prospects look fairly non-existent at the moment.
Trading Diary:
07:50am As I mentioned above, there’s a potential ‘short’ trade setting up on my WTI Crude chart – it’s one of my trendFX patterns.
08:10am The WTI price has fallen sufficiently on the 8 o’clock candle to trigger a ‘short’ position for me – my stop loss is 15 pips.
09:35am Happy with the +36 pip profit so I am now out of my WTI position.
10:10am Now in another ‘short’ trade – this time a UTB position on my Gold chart, the stop loss is 15 pips.
10:35am Neighbour has just arrived for a cycle ride so I have just closed off my latest trade – it has managed +55 pips.
12:25pm Back from my cycle ride and now out to lunch at The Lion so no trading for a while.
15:20pm Back home — and just took a quick ‘short’ trade on my S&P 500 chart using strategy-1 from my trendFX system, the stop loss is a relatively high 58 pips but that is a reflection of the current volatility. There is a similiar trade on both the FTSE 100 and Dax 30 charts.
16:40pm Just been invited out for some clay pigeon practice shortly so I’m off out for a few hours and I’ve taken the opportunity to close the S&P 500 position – it has come in at +91 pips. Three is enough trades for one day — my total +182 pips.
