Global markets enter Tuesday's London session with a new structural layer added to an already complex geopolitical picture. President Trump has reinstated a formal blockade of Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and announced a 20% transit fee on all other cargo traversing the waterway. Brent crude has pushed toward $85-$86 a barrel, its highest since mid-June, while WTI is trading above $79. Asian equity markets fell again overnight, with the Nikkei and Kospi extending losses as oil's surge renewed inflation fears and the hawkish Fed signal from Governor Waller on Monday pushed July rate-hike probabilities above 40%.
Gold has broken below the $4,000 psychological level for the first time in weeks, with the rate-channel suppression narrative now fully dominant over any geopolitical safe-haven logic. Silver is below $57.60, reflecting the same mechanism along with a negative correlation to oil. Today's macro environment is risk-off with a hawkish monetary overlay - the precise combination most toxic to precious metals and most supportive of the dollar.
The session's defining event arrives at 8:30am ET: June CPI, with consensus at 3.8% year-on-year on headline and 2.8% core, followed directly by Chair Warsh's first congressional testimony. WTI crude oil, EUR/USD, gold, and USD/CAD are the four instruments offering the clearest directional setups around these catalysts - but getting the entry right requires waiting for the data, not front-running it.
The full Markets Mastered briefing contains the specific entry zones, stop levels, and intraday warning signals for each instrument, along with a detailed breakdown of what the CPI and Warsh testimony scenarios mean for each pair. Subscribe for access before the New York open.