Morning Market Briefing: 15 Jul 2026

Tuesday delivered a pair of surprises that have materially shifted the week's macro structure. US CPI for June came in at 3.5% year-on-year, well below forecasts, with a negative monthly print - the first since 2020. Simultaneously, President Trump scrapped the 20% Hormuz transit levy, replacing it with Gulf investment deals. Taken together, these developments have pushed the probability of a July Fed rate hike to below 17%, unwound much of last week's risk-off positioning, and driven Asian equities sharply higher overnight, with Japan's Nikkei up 1% and Korea's Kospi surging over 7%. WTI is holding near $80, anchored by the ongoing Iranian blockade and continued infrastructure strikes rather than the cancelled levy, suggesting the underlying supply risk has not resolved with the diplomatic headline. Gold has reclaimed $4,000 and is trading around $4,047 as the rate-channel headwind softens. EUR/USD is the standout trade, with the 0th-percentile CFTC short extreme now facing its strongest mechanical unwind trigger of the year - the pair has cleared 1.1400 and is tracking toward 1.1460-1.1480. USD/CAD is the quiet continuation trade as oil holds and the commodity channel does its work. The session's risk catalyst is June PPI at 8:30am ET, followed by Warsh's second day of Senate testimony, both of which will define whether Tuesday's relief extends or partially reverses. The full briefing carries instrument-specific levels, correlation checks across gold, USD/CHF and the CFTC positioning extremes, and precise entry, stop and target levels for each of today's primary setups. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete daily analysis before every London open.