Morning Market Briefing: 12 Aug 2026

Markets arrive at Wednesday's London open in a state of concentrated anticipation. The July US CPI prints at 13:30 UK time - 8:30 Eastern - and with the market split almost evenly on whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, the reaction to that number will be fast, wide, and unforgiving of oversized pre-data positioning. Crude has now advanced for six consecutive sessions, with WTI near $84 and Brent above $89, driven entirely by Hormuz disruption that shows no clean resolution. A fresh signal from Pakistan's defence minister that the US and Iran are "close to some sort of arrangement" adds a live diplomatic wild card to an already complex session. Gold is holding above $4,450 on the combination of central bank demand from China, easing Fed hike expectations, and geopolitical safe-haven flows - but the metal is technically stretched after an 8% August gain and faces a binary gate at 13:30. EUR/USD at 1.1546 is the cleanest structural setup: CFTC data from August 4 shows EUR net shorts at the 2nd percentile of the 52-week range, meaning the mechanical fuel for a second squeeze leg remains largely intact, waiting for a soft CPI to ignite it. The key discipline today is patience before 13:30 and precision after it. The full briefing contains exact entry triggers, stops, and targets for every instrument, plus the specific price signals that would indicate today's narrative is shifting before the crowd notices.