Markets enter Tuesday's London session with the Iran-Hormuz situation materially worse than it was 48 hours ago. Trump's counter-demand for Iranian war reparations, published Monday afternoon, has effectively ended near-term deal expectations, and Iran's appointment of a hardline IRGC commander to its top security post confirms the direction of travel. Oil has gained roughly 9% in three sessions, Brent is near $88, and WTI is holding above $82. The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook releases today - built on July assumptions of a Hormuz reopening that has now collapsed - and the revised numbers could drive another 2% crude move before the afternoon is out.
Gold is consolidating above $4,300 after last week's NFP-driven breakout, now supported more by geopolitical safe-haven demand than by rate repricing alone. Silver has confirmed a break above $65.50, a level that has capped it since the July Hormuz peak - that breakout deserves attention. EUR/USD is holding the 1.1530 to 1.1540 breakout zone, with the 2nd percentile CFTC EUR short still offering squeeze fuel. USD/JPY reversed sharply on Monday with Tokyo absent for Mountain Day, creating a thin and volatile session on the JPY side of the book.
Wednesday's US CPI at 8:30 Eastern is the week's defining event - a 3.4% consensus print with real upside risk from the energy component. Today is about managing existing positions, watching the EIA release, and not over-trading the day before the data that could reset everything.
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