Markets open this Monday in a fundamentally different position from the environment that defined last week. Friday's US July jobs report delivered a genuine shock, with nonfarm payrolls shedding 23,000 positions against expectations of an 80,000 gain, sending the dollar to a two-week low and collapsing September Fed rate hike expectations from near-certain to a 40% probability. Asian equities followed Wall Street higher overnight on the repricing. Risk-on, broadly, but complicated.
Two fresh developments complicate the clean narrative this morning. The Bank of Japan released its July meeting summary of opinions within the past few hours, with several board members calling for faster rate hikes than the current pace. A September BoJ move is now near-consensus among analysts, compressing the dollar-yen rate differential from both ends simultaneously. Meanwhile, weekend missile strikes on an ADNOC tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, with unconfirmed reports of a further incident this morning, have kept Brent above $84 and WTI near $79. Oil is not cooperating with the dovish dollar story.
Gold is approaching $4,330 this morning, holding near two-month highs after the NFP-driven breakout. EUR/USD has cleared the 1.1550 level that three consecutive briefings identified as the CFTC short-squeeze trigger. USD/JPY sits near 157.90 with fresh BoJ pressure to the downside. The key instrument to watch today is USD/JPY, where the BoJ hawkish signal provides the London catalyst. The key level to protect is EUR/USD at 1.1530 - that is where the breakout either holds or fails. Wednesday's July US CPI report is the next decisive macro gate for every instrument in this briefing, and today's session is the setup for that trade.
The full briefing carries detailed entry points, stop levels, and execution frameworks for all eight instruments including WTI crude, silver, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF, along with the specific early warning signals to monitor minute by minute through the London session. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for access before the next open.