Monday's session was defined before London opened. Trump's Saturday announcement that he had cancelled planned military strikes against Iran and that deal parameters were in place for reopening the Strait of Hormuz hit oil at the Asian open with the force of a structural repricing, not a rumour. WTI fell more than 6% to $79.41, breaching the $80 level that the previous briefing had identified as the head-and-shoulders neckline and the line separating a bullish oil floor from a more significant breakdown. Iran's public response - that the Strait "will in no way return to the status it was before February 28th" - was largely ignored by the opening trade, which is itself a risk worth noting. Markets chose to hear what they wanted to hear.
Equities surged on the inflation-relief narrative, but then the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed 55.6 against a 54.0 estimate, its highest reading since May 2022, adding hawkish Fed pressure back into a session already pulling in two directions. Gold drifted from its gap-up open near $4,135 to around $4,050 by mid-morning, and silver reclaimed $58.38 but remains below the $58.80 level required to confirm a genuine base. USD/JPY pressed toward 155 as coordinated US-Japan yen-buying operations continued to redefine the pair's operative range. The $80 level in WTI and 155 in USD/JPY are the two levels that matter most heading into tomorrow.
With Friday's nonfarm payrolls as the week's binary event and Iran negotiations actively in flux overnight, the full briefing maps out the exact positioning parameters across all eight instruments, including which levels represent genuine breaks and which are noise. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete daily analysis before every trading session.