Evening Market Recap: 25 Sep 2026

Friday's session gave traders the specific diplomatic language the market had been waiting for all week. Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi put a seven-day Hormuz reopening proposal on record with US mediators, and Trump responded at the National Archives with his most optimistic public framing yet on the talks. The combination stripped roughly 2% from WTI and pulled Brent below $103, halting the bond selloff and giving equities a modest late-week lift. The key level that mattered was $95.00 on WTI - the morning briefing's stated pivot for a Hormuz deal advancement - which was tested and broken in orderly fashion rather than through a panic capitulation. Gold held above $4,244 despite the easing geopolitical premium, constrained between the diplomatic tailwind and the still-hawkish yield backdrop. USD/JPY retreated from 159.00 without a formal Ministry of Finance intervention, validating the morning's exit guidance. Going into next week, three open questions will drive direction: whether the seven-day Hormuz timeline holds or fractures over the weekend, whether next Tuesday's PCE print confirms or challenges the 70% October hike probability now priced in, and whether USD/JPY can sustain below 159.00 or tests it again once Tokyo liquidity returns in full. The full version of this briefing contains the complete level-by-level positioning guide, morning calls assessment, and the specific entry and stop framework for each instrument heading into next week. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the edge that serious part-time traders cannot afford to miss.