Thursday's session delivered three distinct regimes inside a single day. Iran's military escalation rhetoric drove oil sharply higher through the London morning, only for a late Reuters report on a phased Hormuz deal to pull equities off their lows by the New York close. Between those two oil headlines, the US labour market delivered another hawkish jolt: initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 against a 201,000 forecast, near 57-year lows. With the Philadelphia Fed's Anna Paulson adding her voice to the rate-hike chorus, October tightening probability rose to 70%.
The session's most important level was 1.1400 in EUR/USD. The pair broke it convincingly in the 09:00 to 10:30 UK window, reached the 1.1360 target the morning briefing set, and is now sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance - a zone that, if broken on a weekly close, opens a larger move lower. USD/CHF performed exactly as the morning briefing called it: the SNB held rates at 0%, revised inflation forecasts higher, and retained FX intervention language. The pair pushed to 0.827, its highest since late May.
Heading into Friday, the oil narrative is binary. Whether Tehran confirms or denies the phased Hormuz deal shapes the entire risk tone across commodities, currencies, and bond yields. USD/JPY longs require hard stops below 157.60 before the Tokyo open. The full briefing carries the specific levels, execution conditions, and the honest assessment of every call made this week - including the one WTI short that got stopped out and exactly why the stop was the right decision.