Evening Market Recap: 12 Oct 2026

Monday's session served as a controlled pre-CPI holding pattern disrupted by one fact that refused to be held: Saudi Arabia's Riyadh airport remains closed following Houthi attacks that killed 14 people over the weekend, and oil markets eventually concluded that a closed airport disrupting the World Petroleum Congress is not a story that fits the ceasefire narrative Trump announced on Sunday. WTI fell to $89.65 in the Asian session as the ceasefire headline ran, then recovered to close above $92.50 as physical reality reasserted itself. The $90.00 level the morning briefing designated as the session's directional compass held exactly as described - a brief Asian-hours break, a sharp recovery through London, and a close well above it. That pivot absorbed a 4-dollar range and still held. GBP/JPY's buy at 209.50 activated at the open, moved in the right direction, and the pair approached 210.00 before sellers returned for a second consecutive session. The stop at 208.50 was never close. Gold touched $4,217 in early European trade and spent the rest of the day drifting back below $4,180, with the dollar's intraday recovery capping every attempt to hold $4,200. The real trade in every instrument covered here is Wednesday's US CPI at 13:30 UK time, and Tuesday's major bank earnings are the first potential preview of how the market intends to position for it. The full briefing has the exact levels across all eight instruments, the updated GBP/JPY and USD/CHF positioning guidance, and the specific scenario mapping for Wednesday's CPI that determines whether gold extends to $4,250 or revisits $4,100. Subscribe for the complete picture.