Three stories define this week before a chart has been opened. An IRGC mine strike on a crude oil supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz late Friday confirmed that the geopolitical risk premium in oil is not abating. The EUR/USD short in the latest CoT data has reached the 0th percentile of a trailing 52-week range - the most extreme bearish positioning in the dataset - yet the French OAT/Bund spread has simultaneously blown out to 2011 sovereign crisis levels, providing the structural reason that short stays in place. And the Fed, having hiked in September for the first time since 2023, is cautiously eyeing December for the next move.
WTI enters the week with an upward gap bias from the mine strike, likely opening between $92 and $96. Gold, sitting near $4,170 and well off its January record, finds its safe-haven floor freshly reinforced. The pair to watch most carefully is USD/CHF: at the 96th CoT percentile short and now facing a live Hormuz escalation, it carries the most asymmetric downside risk of any instrument in the complex this week.
Wednesday's US CPI for September is the week's decisive release. Consensus sits near 3.6-3.7% headline. A surprise either side of that range will determine whether EUR/USD's 0th-percentile short finally gets its covering catalyst or whether the dollar extends its fourth consecutive week of gains.
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