The week of 13 July opens with a Strait of Hormuz that Iran's IRGC Navy declared closed until further notice over the weekend, and a Truth Social post from President Trump threatening to decimate Iran, filed just hours before London opens on Monday. These are not background noise. They are the opening conditions for every trade you take this week.
The dominant macro story is a collision between a geopolitically re-escalating oil market and Tuesday's June CPI, which is expected to show a headline number that looks soft but disguises stubbornly sticky core inflation. Markets have re-priced September rate-hike probability to around 63% after last week's FOMC minutes revealed a divided Fed. That number is the ceiling for gold near $4,119 and the floor for USD strength - until the CPI either validates or dismantles it.
The two instruments that matter most this week are EUR/USD and USD/JPY. EUR positioning has collapsed to the 0th percentile in a single week, the most crowded short in 52 weeks, creating violent short-cover potential if Tuesday's CPI surprises to the downside on core. USD/JPY faces the new structural challenge of Japan's government explicitly calling for its $1.81 trillion GPIF pension fund to increase domestic asset allocations, a policy shift that, if followed with specifics, would represent a sustained yen-supportive capital flow far larger than any intervention.
The full briefing contains current price levels for all eight instruments, the complete data calendar with UK times and consensus forecasts, key levels to anchor your analysis across all five trading days, and the specific early warning signals that tell you when Monday's narrative is changing. If you are trading through this week without reading it, you are trading blind into one of the most event-dense weeks of the year.