Morning Market Briefing: 8 Jul 2026

The session entering the London open on July 8 is among the most consequential of the year. The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran overnight and revoked the sanctions waiver allowing Iranian oil sales after Tehran attacked three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz - an escalation that has pushed Brent above $76, sent the dollar broadly higher, and dragged gold below $4,130. The safe-haven hierarchy has been inverted: the dollar is winning, the franc and yen are secondary, and gold is falling rather than rising because higher oil means higher inflation means a higher probability of the September Fed rate hike. That rate-hike story has its most critical scheduled catalyst today with the FOMC minutes due at 7:00 p.m. UK time. WTI is the session's primary instrument, with a pullback toward $70.00-$70.50 the disciplined entry rather than a chase of an already five-percent spike. Gold at $4,100-$4,110 is the afternoon binary: dovish minutes deliver a sharp recovery, hawkish minutes accelerate the sell-off. USD/JPY above 162.00 with the 2nd-percentile CFTC short still intact is the forex setup that carries the most asymmetric risk heading into the afternoon. The full briefing has specific entry levels, stops, and the early warning signals you need to stay ahead of the next move.