Markets return from the July 4 holiday weekend with the June NFP miss still setting the tone. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs, roughly half the forecast, and the repricing of the Fed's hiking path has held through the long weekend with gold, silver, and the yen all maintaining the bulk of their post-data gains. The Fed's next meeting on July 28-29 is now firmly in hold territory for most participants, with futures pricing only a 50% chance of a September hike, down from nearly 67% before the NFP. That single shift is the week's dominant macro theme.
OPEC+ confirmed this morning that seven member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will raise output by 188,000 barrels per day from August. WTI opened around $68.45 and faces genuine structural headwinds as Hormuz transit volumes gradually recover and supply continues to build. Oil is not the session's best opportunity.
Gold at $4,163 is the instrument of the day. The breakout above $4,100 established on Thursday has survived the weekend, the USDCHF-XAUUSD correlation is confirming, and Wednesday's FOMC minutes represent the week's first significant catalyst. Any early-London dip toward $4,145-$4,160 is the continuation entry subscribers have been waiting for. Meanwhile, USD/JPY at 161.84 has delivered the short-entry setup the full briefing has been tracking since Thursday - the 2nd-percentile CFTC short, Ministry of Finance intervention risk, and the carry trade's weakened fundamental case all point the same direction.
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