Morning Market Briefing: 31 Jul 2026

Friday 31 July opens with the week's most significant overnight development already in motion: Japan conducted suspected yen-buying intervention during Thursday's New York session, sending USD/JPY from near 163 to as low as 158 before a partial bounce to 160.40 to 160.70 in Asian trading. The move arrived on the back of a US Q2 GDP print that missed at 1.5% annualised versus 1.8% expected, and a core PCE reading of 3.3% that matched forecasts but confirmed the inflation peak from May's 3.4% is likely behind us. Together, those data prints weakened the dollar broadly, broke EUR/USD above the 1.1430 level that was the key resistance all week, and sent gold through $4,100 on a combination of safe-haven and weaker-dollar demand. Asian equity markets are responding positively, with the Nikkei up sharply and the S&P 500 futures firm after Microsoft surged 16% on earnings. The environment has shifted from risk-off toward cautiously constructive at month-end, but two live risks dominate: Governor Ueda's BOJ press conference at 0630 GMT, where hawkish inflation language could extend the yen squeeze toward 158, and oil's ability to hold above $82 to $83 WTI as Strait of Hormuz shipping flows partially normalise. The full briefing covers the specific levels, intervention implications, and execution guidance across all eight instruments that matter today.