Morning Market Briefing: 28 Aug 2026

The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium represents a pivotal moment for global markets as newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his inaugural keynote address on Friday, August 28. That speech, at 3:00 PM UK time, defines the entire trading session. Everything before it is positioning and preparation; everything after it is reaction. Markets are pricing in roughly one-in-three odds of a September rate hike, making Warsh's twenty minutes at the podium potentially the tiebreaker for monetary policy direction in the months ahead. When 69% of fund managers expect a neutral tone, neutral is already priced in - which is precisely what makes a surprise, in either direction, so consequential today. July PCE landed at 3.7% headline, slightly hotter than expected, with real spending flat. The data does not support a dovish message. Gold at $4,610 and EUR/USD at 1.1587 are the instruments most directly exposed: gold holds above $4,568 on a neutral-to-dovish speech and targets $4,700, while EUR/USD's 4th-percentile CFTC short book still awaits the covering move that this week's Treasury-driven dollar weakness never fully delivered. Meanwhile, the Canada-US tariff collapse is the structural change from the previous briefing - 50% tariffs are now in force and retaliatory measures begin September 8, fundamentally altering the USD/CAD framework. Do not build size before 3:00 PM. The full briefing details the exact levels, the CFTC positioning extremes, the live cross-asset correlation signals, and the specific price behaviours that tell you which scenario is unfolding before the rest of the market reaches the same conclusion.