The dominant narrative entering this week has reversed sharply from Friday. The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, Brent crude fell more than 7% overnight to trade back toward $90, and US equity futures opened the week with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and Nasdaq futures gaining over 1%. Asia has largely recaptured Friday's losses. The session tone is unambiguously risk-on, but the ceasefire is a pause - not a resolution - and the Houthis claimed fresh attacks on Saudi targets over the weekend, meaning the supply disruption narrative has not been fully extinguished.
Gold is the most immediately interesting instrument, now trading near $4,090 and approaching the two-hour close trigger above $4,080 that last Friday's briefing identified as the long entry signal. With oil down and Fed rate-hike expectations softening, the primary headwind that pushed gold toward nine-month lows last week is easing. The FOMC meets Wednesday - Chair Warsh's statement language on inflation will either validate or terminate the recovery. WTI is equally in focus, with the gap lower creating a precarious entry environment where chasing the short risks a violent reversal on any Houthi or diplomatic headline. The OPEC meeting tonight is the day's primary oil catalyst. USD/JPY remains this week's structural risk: CFTC positioning data shows the yen short at an extreme 2nd percentile of the 52-week range, and with the BOJ meeting Wednesday, the conditions for a historic short squeeze are in place. Subscribers to the full briefing have the key levels, entry triggers, and the specific early-warning signals to watch before these moves develop.