Markets open Monday facing a weekend of escalation in the Middle East, with Iran re-closing the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Trump threatening fresh strikes, even as Vice President Vance flew to Switzerland for talks. US equity futures slipped, with S&P 500 futures down around 0.5% and Nasdaq futures lower, though Japan's Nikkei hit a fresh record above 72,000 reflecting ongoing AI and technology demand. The Fed backdrop is unchanged: nine of 18 FOMC participants expect at least one rate hike this year, with the PCE price index and Q1 GDP data both due Thursday as the week's critical data events. The environment is risk-off, driven by geopolitics rather than any macro data shift, with the hawkish Fed providing a second layer of pressure on risk assets.
WTI crude is probing $78 and threatening $80 as the strait closure reprices supply uncertainty, giving oil a bullish bias for the session with the $80 level as the key line between moderate and severe market concern. Gold has recovered from Friday's $4,150 lows toward $4,200-$4,238 as safe-haven demand reasserts, and the USD/CHF short against a gold long remains the cleanest paired trade in the session, anchored by the -0.74 correlation between the two instruments. USD/JPY above 160 with intervention risk from Japan's Ministry of Finance is the day's highest-risk asymmetric position. The full briefing identifies specific entry zones, stop levels, and the precise early warning signals that would change today's directional calls before the move becomes obvious. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete session intelligence before London opens each morning.