The macro landscape has pivoted sharply overnight. President Trump signalled a possible peace deal with Iran before the weekend, cancelling planned strikes and prompting Iran's semi-official news agency to indicate Tehran may accept terms. US equities surged 1.8-2.5% on Thursday, Asian markets followed with Korea's Kospi jumping over 8%, and oil fell more than 4% toward $86. This is a genuine regime shift from the risk-off environment that dominated the past ten days, though the deal remains unsigned and the physical disruptions to Hormuz traffic will outlast any political announcement by weeks.
Gold has recovered sharply toward $4,200, silver is up over 5%, and the yen carry trade is beginning to unwind with USD/JPY pulling back from the 160.00 intervention zone. Two instruments stand out above all others today. GBP/JPY offers the cleanest alignment: sterling recovering on risk-on equity momentum and the yen weakening as the most extreme short position in the CFTC dataset begins to cover. USD/JPY short from bounces remains the structural trade of the week, with the BoJ meeting next Tuesday adding a second wave of potential yen strength. The key risk to today's entire framework is a collapse of the Iran deal signal before a formal signing, which would reverse all of overnight's gains in minutes. The full briefing details the specific entry levels, correlation signals, and early warning triggers that tell you whether today's risk-on thesis is holding or fracturing before it becomes obvious to everyone else. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete daily briefing before every London open.