Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis seized the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha on Thursday, gaining leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait - one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints and the second such threat to open alongside Hormuz within this conflict. WTI crude rose above $102 this morning and the structural oil bull case has strengthened materially since yesterday. The session tone is deeply risk-off globally, with Asian equity markets extending US losses for a fourth consecutive session and the 10-year Treasury yield near its highest level in three years.
The day's dominant scheduled event is the August US CPI print at 13:30 UK time, the last inflation reading before the Fed's September 16 decision. Markets are now pricing a 70% probability of a 25 basis point Fed hike, and today's number either firms that expectation or collapses it. The binary sets up sharp moves in gold, which is nursing heavy losses near $4,310 after Thursday's PPI selloff, and in USD/JPY, which is holding near 154.00 ahead of a BOJ meeting also expected to deliver a hike on September 18.
In the full briefing, subscribers will find the key WTI levels either side of $105, the precise USD/JPY setup into the BOJ meeting, an updated gold analysis that explains why the $4,400 floor has broken and what restores it, and a step-by-step execution framework for the pre-CPI London morning and the 13:30 UK catalyst window. The silver analysis explains a dramatic reversal from yesterday's bullish call. The Mocha seizure's implications for oil positioning are assessed in full. This is one of the highest-conviction directional sessions of the year. The full briefing has the structure to navigate it.