Wednesday delivered everything the morning briefing warned about and then some. Trump's declaration at the NATO summit in Ankara that the Iran ceasefire was "over" - followed by a direct threat to strike again tonight - took a geopolitical situation that was already escalating and gave it an explicit presidential mandate. Oil moved accordingly, with WTI gaining nearly 8% on the session and Brent briefly trading above $80 for the first time since the conflict intensified. The morning briefing's WTI long thesis, entered on Tuesday's close above $70.28, captured most of that move.
The FOMC minutes confirmed the hawkish scenario, with markets now pricing a 66% probability of a September rate hike. Gold broke below $4,030, well through the $4,100 support floor the morning briefing identified as the line that mattered. Silver followed, trading below $59 - the $60.00 threshold is gone and there is nothing structurally significant beneath it until the mid-$50s.
The level that told the whole story today was Brent's 200-day moving average near $78. Reclaiming that level on a closing basis is not a technical footnote - it changes the regime. Heading into Thursday, the overnight question is whether Trump's promised second wave of strikes materialises, with initial jobless claims and New York Fed President Williams' remarks the two scheduled catalysts capable of shifting the rate-hike calculus.
The full Evening Recap covers every instrument in detail, including the complete FOMC minutes analysis, the USD/CHF and USD/CAD positioning reassessment, the SK Hynix risk for silver on Friday, and specific levels to watch on USD/JPY as the intervention zone comes back into play. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete briefing delivered before every session open.