The data delivered today, and it delivered hard. July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 against a consensus of plus 80,000, with May and June both revised sharply lower, and average hourly earnings slipped to a five-year low of 3.2% year-on-year. The September Fed hike that three Fed dissenters had been publicly advocating is now effectively priced out until December at the earliest, and the dollar index dropped to its lowest level in roughly two months.
The level that mattered was EUR/USD at 1.1490. All week, we flagged that support as the line between squeeze-active and squeeze-failed. It held through the London morning, the data hit at 13:30 UK time, and the pair broke through the 1.1555 to 1.1580 trigger zone to print its highest level in seven weeks. Gold ran from the $4,270 entry zone to above $4,350. Silver surged past $65, its best single-session move in months. USD/JPY pulled back toward 157.50 as the carry-unwind channel activated on the soft print.
Into next week, the Asia session carries yen strength risks for Nikkei, and a fresh Hormuz ultimatum from Tehran adds a geopolitical wildcard that oil has not yet fully priced. The key event is July CPI, which either extends everything built this week or reverses it sharply. The full evening briefing covers precise levels for gold, silver, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF into Monday's open, along with the morning calls review that tracks every position we flagged this week against today's actual outcome. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the full picture before Asia opens.