Monday's return of full US liquidity resolved the post-NFP weekend positioning cleanly enough: tech recovered, the Nasdaq gained 1%, and markets settled into the week's true event, Wednesday's FOMC minutes, without disruption. The ISM Services PMI at 54 for June, the 24th consecutive month of expansion, was the morning's most underappreciated data point. It was not the dovish gift the market wanted. A services employment sub-index that just turned positive for the first time in four months is not an economy demanding rate cuts.
Gold touched $4,120 intraday before recovering to $4,175 - the post-NFP breakout structure held under its first real test. USD/CHF recovered to the 0.8048-0.8050 zone, delivering precisely the short-entry setup the morning briefing specified. USD/JPY drifted back toward 162 without the clean reversal signal, keeping the bearish thesis alive but unconfirmed. The UK Construction PMI at 38.4, missing even its already-depressed forecast of 40, added to the domestic headwinds around sterling.
Into Tuesday, Samsung's earnings and the NATO Ankara summit opening are the overnight binaries. Governor Bailey's BoE Financial Stability remarks and Fed Governor Waller's Rome speech tonight could reprice both halves of USD/JPY before London opens.
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