Monday's session was defined by a story that had nothing to do with the Federal Reserve. The euro slid to its weakest level against the dollar since May 2025, touching $1.1161 in Asian hours, as France's deteriorating public finances and Spain's snap election call revived the ghost of the eurozone debt crisis. French bond spreads widened, ING warned of a further 2% risk premium if the selloff extended, and EUR/USD recovered only partially to the 1.12 area by the European open. That is the day's defining move, and it happened while the dollar had every domestic reason to weaken - September payrolls came in at just 29,000, slashing the October Fed hike probability from 70% to below 20% in a single session. The dollar strengthened anyway, because the franc and the dollar were the day's only credible havens.
WTI held the $90 area as support after a volatile session that included a Houthi attack on Saudi infrastructure and the ongoing digestion of the G7's 100-million-barrel reserve release, announced Friday. The key level for tomorrow is $90 in WTI and $1.1200 in EUR/USD. Wednesday's Federal Reserve September meeting minutes are the week's highest-impact event, arriving into a market where equity bulls, bond bears, and dollar bulls are each pricing something mutually inconsistent.
The full version of tonight's briefing covers all eight instruments in detail, with specific entry references, the USD/CHF and GBP/JPY closing setups, and a complete positioning guide for the Asian open. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the full evening recap delivered before every London open.