Evening Market Recap: 31 Jul 2026

Friday closed a month of extraordinary market drama. Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened to support the yen on Thursday, Ueda followed with the most hawkish BOJ press conference in this tightening cycle on Friday morning - explicitly flagging September as a live meeting and warning of inflation overshoot risk - and USD/JPY retested 158.55 before clawing back toward 159.40 by the close. Meanwhile the dollar staged its own partial recovery, with the employment cost index beating expectations and the DXY recapturing the 100.00 level that the morning briefing identified as the critical early warning signal for EUR/USD's 1.1430 support. That level held, but only just - EUR/USD is trading in the 1.1450 to 1.1480 zone heading into the weekend, and Monday's open will tell us whether the breakout survives or reverts. Gold pulled back from Thursday's high toward $4,074 to $4,086 as the dollar firmed, with the 63% September hike probability capping any extension to $4,130. Oil settled near $84 on WTI with its $8 weekly range intact, and a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Volgograd refinery added a secondary supply disruption that could support the floor into August. The key level that defined the week was USD/JPY 160.00 - the intervention anchor that was tested from both sides. The full recap unpacks each instrument's positioning for next week's open, including the nonfarm payrolls setup that will determine whether July's yen and dollar moves represent the start of something structural or a month-end flush. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete briefing, including specific entry levels, stop placement, and the August positioning framework.