How The Day Played Out
Today's session was shaped by three forces operating simultaneously: a PCE print that met expectations rather than shocked in either direction, a dramatic geopolitical development in Washington that generated headlines throughout the New York session, and a strong overnight bid in Asian equities that set a broadly risk-on tone coming into the London open.
On the overnight session, Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 2.53%, ending the trading day at 66,329.5, while the Topix rose 1.41% to a new record high of 3,957.17. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.62% to close at 8,731.7. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 0.55% in the final hour of trade, while the CSI 300 lost 0.45% to 4,892.12. Asian markets largely looked past the ongoing military activity involving Iran and focused on gains in technology and the record closes on Wall Street from Thursday's session.
The PCE data landed at 13:30 BST and delivered no material surprise. Core PCE - the inflation number the Fed watches most closely - rose 3.3% year-over-year, 0.2% month-over-month. Core PCE strips out volatile food and energy prices to give a cleaner read on underlying inflation. Annual PCE inflation climbed to 3.8% in April from 3.5% in March, and the core reading came in line with market expectation. The in-line print meant there was no large repricing of Fed expectations in either direction. The dollar found temporary support immediately after the number but was unable to sustain meaningful upside momentum. There is broad consensus on one point: this report does not provide the Federal Reserve with a reason to cut interest rates. Year-over-year core PCE at 3.3% is too far above the 2% target to justify easing, and the upward trend over the past year makes the case for patience, not urgency.
The dominant market-moving story of the afternoon session was geopolitical. BREAKING: President Trump said he was meeting with advisers in the White House Situation Room to determine whether to agree to a deal with Iran. The sides had reached a tentative agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz and begin a 60-day negotiation window on Tehran's nuclear program, but the terms still needed Trump's sign-off. Trump said that as part of any agreement, Iran "must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb" and that the Strait of Hormuz must be "immediately open" without any tolls or restrictions on traffic. This statement, published from the Situation Room, sent oil prices lower in the New York afternoon as markets briefly priced in a higher probability of deal approval. However, Iran's response introduced immediate doubt. Baghaei told Iranian state TV, "As I speak to you, message exchanges are of course ongoing, but no final understanding has been reached." The net result was a session that ended without resolution on the deal and with oil off its lows but well below where it opened the week.
On the Fed front, the FOMC minutes from April and recent Fed speaker commentary remain the structural backdrop. A majority of Fed officials highlighted that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2%, per the minutes from the April 2026 meeting. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took office in May 2026, now faces a data set that is uncomfortably far from target. Fed Governor Bowman, in comments that circulated today, warned against hiking interest rates solely because of the inflation spike. That nuance is important: it suggests at least one voting member remains cautious about treating the energy-driven component of inflation as a reason to tighten further.
Equities had a constructive session. Stocks rose on Friday, while crude prices slipped, as the major averages looked to close out a winning month, boosted by technology. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 climbed 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 308 points, or 0.6%. All three indexes hit fresh all-time intraday highs. The session's strength came primarily from a Dell Technologies earnings beat that propelled technology sentiment broadly. Dell Technologies was a standout during Friday's session, with shares surging 29% after the company reported a first-quarter beat on both the top and bottom lines and raised its full-year guidance.
Key Moves And Levels
Wti Crude Oil
The dominant move of the week was an accelerating decline in WTI as peace deal optimism built through the week, culminating in today's Situation Room announcement pressing prices sharply lower before a partial recovery. Crude Oil fell to $86.97 per barrel on May 29, 2026, down 2.17% from the previous day. Over the past month, crude oil's price has fallen 17.22%, though it remains 43.07% higher than a year ago. WTI crude oil futures fell about 2% to $87.2 per barrel on Friday, the lowest in roughly six weeks, putting them on track for a 17% decline in May. The move followed reports that the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend a ceasefire and ease restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, although President Trump has not yet approved the deal and Iranian state media said it has not been finalized. An important dynamic noted by oil analysts: the potential agreement has raised expectations of an eventual end to the US-Israeli war in Iran and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that any recovery in flows would likely be slow, as mines would need clearing, damaged infrastructure repaired and shut-in production restarted, with tanker delays also limiting supply restoration.
Intraday, oil prices turned to a gain Friday after Iran poured cold water on growing market hopes for a near-term agreement. This two-way price action confirmed the binary nature of the headline risk the morning briefing had flagged. The $88.03 swing low support noted in this morning's briefing was effectively tested and briefly breached. WTI settled around $87, closing the week below the 0% Fibonacci retracement level identified this morning. The $93.72 Fibonacci resistance was never approached.
XAU/USD GOLD
Gold recovered through the session after a weak open. Gold June futures opened at $4,527.60 per troy ounce on Friday, down just 0.1% compared to Thursday's closing price. The gold price moved higher in early trading. At 6:27 a.m. ET, the price of gold reached $4,560.40. The recovery was driven by the Iran deal optimism narrative: reports that President Trump has received a 60-day truce extension with Iran, which he could sign at some point today, renewed hope in the markets that a resolution to the war is not far behind and that the Strait of Hormuz can once again reopen. By mid-session, gold's spot price as of 9:00 a.m. ET was $4,523.29 per ounce, slightly higher than Thursday's price, when it traded at $4,433.87 per ounce at the same time. Gold closed the week having recovered from the $4,433 Thursday close, holding above the $4,425 weekly low support flagged in this morning's briefing. Crucially, gold did not retest the $4,390 intraday low printed on Wednesday, which signals short-term support is holding.
XAG/USD SILVER
Silver rose to $75.87 per troy ounce on May 29, 2026, up 0.37% from the previous day. Over the past month, silver's price has risen 3.04%. The $75.87 level sat comfortably above the $74.00 support identified in this morning's briefing, and the pair held above the $75.00 line that was flagged as the dividing line between bull and bear control into the New York open. Silver's recovery, aided by the risk-on tone in equities and the Iran deal optimism, is consistent with its +0.73 Nasdaq correlation noted in the intelligence snapshot.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY pulled back off weekly highs to trade at about 159.28 during today's session, according to data timestamped May 29 at 4:47 p.m. UTC. The pair had tested near the 159.50 resistance noted in this morning's briefing but was unable to sustain above it. The PCE print coming in line rather than hot removed the catalyst for a push toward 160.00. The crowded short at the 4th CFTC percentile remained unexploited. USD/JPY closed the week around 159.18-159.39 based on available data, having respected both the 160.00 topside and the 158.50 support flagged this morning. Notably, Japan's Ministry of Finance figures confirmed that the Bank of Japan undertook JPY 11.735 trillion of FX intervention in the April 28 to May 27 window. That intervention likely started on April 30, driving USD/JPY from above 160 to below 156 before follow-up action over subsequent sessions. This confirms the BoJ's willingness to defend levels above 160 and explains the pair's reluctance to break through that ceiling.
GBP/JPY
GBP/USD was trading at 1.3464, up 0.14% on the day. With USD/JPY around 159.28, GBP/JPY can be estimated in the vicinity of 214.30-214.50, broadly holding within the range identified this morning. The pair's positioning dynamic - dual crowded shorts in both GBP and JPY - continued to generate an ambiguous and range-bound environment as the morning briefing had anticipated.
EUR/USD
EUR/USD was trading at 1.1671, up 0.15% on the day. The pair recovered from Thursday's weakness, benefiting from the mild dollar softness following the in-line PCE print. The 1.1576 multi-week low support held firmly - it was not retested today, which is constructive. Resistance at 1.1680 and then 1.1710 remain the near-term ceiling for euro bulls.
USD/CAD
Recent historical data shows USD/CAD at 1.38198 on May 22 and 1.38255 on May 23, with the pair pulling back to 1.3812 on May 24 and 1.3803 on May 25. Today's session saw USD/CAD under modest pressure as oil's weakness paradoxically gave the Canadian dollar some breathing room via the broader risk-on tone. USD/CHF's latest rate was at 0.78324, with a negative daily change of -0.36%, consistent with gold's recovery on the day.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair moved lower on the day in lockstep with gold's recovery, precisely as the -0.91 correlation in the intelligence snapshot would predict. The pair was softer from morning highs as gold climbed from its $4,433 Thursday close back toward $4,523. The 0.7905 resistance identified in this morning's briefing was not tested. Support around 0.7810-0.7830 provided the session floor.
Morning Calls Review
The morning briefing set today up correctly as a binary-event session anchored to the PCE print at 13:30 BST. That framing proved accurate. The briefing also correctly identified the Iran MOU as the highest-velocity catalyst of the day - and so it proved, with Trump's Situation Room announcement driving oil lower and gold higher through the New York session.
On the PCE call: the briefing framed the neutral-to-bearish gold bias as contingent on a soft or in-line PCE print. Core PCE came in at 3.3% year-over-year, in line with consensus, which triggered exactly the mild gold recovery the briefing had outlined as the alternative to a hot print. Gold did not collapse through $4,425 support - it held and recovered - which was the correct base case if PCE disappointed to the downside or landed in line. The call to treat a hold above $4,425 as constructive was correct.
On WTI crude oil: the briefing correctly identified this as the highest-velocity potential trade in the session and advised subscribers to react rather than anticipate. That discipline proved its worth. WTI dropped from above $91 this morning to print a low around the $86-87 area intraday before partially recovering. Those who waited for a confirmed headline direction before sizing in had a cleaner entry than those who pre-positioned. The call to avoid trading oil ahead of an Iran headline was the right one.
On USD/CAD: the briefing identified this as the cleanest directional trade on the board and the prior entry zone around 1.3815-1.3830 as the preferred long setup. The pair has experienced modest pullback pressure today as the broader risk-on tone and oil dynamics applied modest CAD support. The technical structure remains intact above the 200-day SMA breakout zone and the bullish case has not been invalidated, but today was not a trending session for this pair.
On USD/JPY: the briefing was correct that the 159.50 resistance would cap the pair and that the PCE print was the fuse. A neutral PCE print removed the hot-data catalyst needed for 160.00, and the pair pulled back from weekly highs to 159.28 as flagged. The crowded yen short did not unwind meaningfully, confirming the briefing's caution about chasing USD/JPY higher from existing levels. The 158.50 support was not tested.
On EUR/USD: the briefing flagged 1.1576 as the key support and correctly noted that a hold above it would reflect the market waiting on the PCE result. The pair held above that level and recovered modestly following the in-line data print, consistent with the slightly bullish bias if PCE did not surprise to the upside.
On USD/CHF: the morning call to treat this pair as a proxy for gold sentiment proved precise again today. Gold's recovery from $4,433 to $4,523 produced a commensurate pullback in USD/CHF, mechanically confirming the -0.91 correlation signal. The early London long setups at 0.7840-0.7850 on dips would have worked pre-PCE but were correctly identified as vulnerable on any gold recovery. The pair ended softer, consistent with the briefing's conditional guidance.
On silver: the cautiously bullish bias contingent on a benign PCE and stable equity tone proved largely correct. Silver ended the day up 0.37% at $75.87, holding above both the $74.00 and $75.00 support levels flagged this morning. The Nasdaq correlation played out - equities held firm and silver firmed with them.
On GBP/JPY: the briefing's explicit guidance to avoid a directional trade due to competing positioning extremes was the right call for today's session. The pair oscillated within the defined range and provided no clean directional setup.
Positioning Into Tomorrow
The single most important pending event for every instrument in this briefing is Trump's final determination on the Iran MOU. Trump said Friday he would make a "final determination" on the deal, laying out his demands including that Iran must agree to "never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb" and that the Strait of Hormuz must be "immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic." This decision has not yet been announced as of the time of writing. Any overnight announcement - approval or rejection - will create a significant gap in WTI crude, gold, and USD/CAD at Monday's open. Traders must have a pre-formed response plan for both scenarios before markets reopen.
The proposed deal would see the Strait of Hormuz fully opened over 60 days, with Iran loosening its grip on the waterway and the US pulling back its naval blockade in synchronised steps until the strait returns to its pre-war status quo. If approved over the weekend, expect WTI to open sharply lower on Monday, potentially retesting the $85-87 area, with gold also under pressure as the safe-haven and inflation risk premium compresses. USD/CAD would face downside pressure, EUR/USD and silver would benefit, and USD/JPY would likely sell off modestly on reduced geopolitical risk appetite.
If Trump rejects the deal or if talks collapse, expect the reverse: WTI spikes back toward $91-93, gold recovers toward $4,600, and safe-haven flows bid the yen, sending USD/JPY lower.
Iran's armed forces reportedly fired missiles at unspecified targets late Thursday, according to state media. The latest military activity in southern Iran came just hours after the Pentagon said Tehran had fired a ballistic missile toward Kuwait and deployed attack drones in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire fragility remains real. Any escalation over the weekend before a deal is formalised could reset markets aggressively.
At the front end of the yield curve, markets continue to price in the likelihood that the Fed's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, potentially sometime early next year. The Fed's preferred core PCE inflation gauge is running at 3.2%, still well above the 2% target. This structural backdrop keeps the dollar supported on any risk-off episode into next week.
Key data releases due in the next 24-48 hours: CAD GDP month-on-month is scheduled for 29 May at 15:30. This is worth monitoring as an afternoon catalyst for USD/CAD positioning. Any meaningful Canadian GDP shortfall would reinforce the USD/CAD bullish case into next week.
The Asia session setup for Sunday-Monday overnight will be entirely dominated by whether Trump signs or rejects the Iran MOU. Traders should treat any position initiated before that announcement as subject to significant gap risk. Reduce size in oil-correlated positions over the weekend. Do not carry full-size WTI exposure into Monday's open without a clear stop level that accounts for a potential $3-5 gap in either direction.
Markets Mastered - Today's Takeaway
The PCE print confirmed what the morning briefing warned: in-line data does not resolve a binary geopolitical situation, it simply defers it. The Iran deal remains the dominant variable across every instrument in this briefing, and Trump's pending decision carries more price impact than any scheduled data point next week. Gold's hold above $4,425 and silver's hold above $75.00 into the close both confirm that support is functioning, but neither confirms a bullish resumption - they are stabilisation, not reversal. Into next week, size conservatively, have your scenario plans ready before Monday's open, and remember that the first price you see is not always the trade - let the market confirm direction before committing.