Monday opened in a regime the previous week could not have predicted: oil down sharply on a US-Iran ceasefire pause, equities attempting a relief rally, and the geopolitical premium that drove Brent above $100 last week unravelling in real time. The early London session confirmed the direction. WTI fell through $84.50 - the level the morning briefing had identified as the clean short trigger - compounded by a domestic inventory build, with September futures settling near $83.25, down nearly 7% on the day. The partial Houthi claim against Saudi Aramco facilities at Yanbu kept a floor under the crude complex through the New York session, preventing a cleaner flush toward $82.
The session's wildcard was CXMT, China's largest memory chipmaker, which surged 466% on its Shanghai debut. That result pressured Western chip names broadly and sent the Nasdaq lower, undermining the clean risk-on narrative the overnight session had suggested. Gold held above $4,083 after briefly touching $4,100, sitting precisely within the entry zone the morning briefing described. The FOMC convenes tomorrow and decides Wednesday, with a hold expected but the statement language on energy and September hike probability the real event for gold, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY positioning.
Tomorrow's London session is the final positioning window before the Fed speaks. USD/JPY remains in a 22-pip stranglehold with the world's most crowded short yen position sitting directly underneath it. A single hawkish BOJ wire before Thursday's decision could detonate that in minutes. The full briefing maps out exactly which levels would confirm that unwind has begun - and which instruments to be in when it does. Subscribe to Markets Mastered for the complete Wednesday FOMC preview and positioning guidance.